804Sox

Meche would be the second best starter on the Brewers. He will not be acquired for Hart and Suppan (who really has negative value, given his contract). I agree that the Royals would value Hart, but it would take more than just him (meaning prospects too) to get Meche, and Suppan would not be included unless Guillen was going the other way, ans the only reason the Royals would try to unload Meche would be for financial reasons.

3 concerns: 1) An AL team loses a bench spot due to the DH, and the Sox carry a 12 man pitching staff, meaning no 5th OF. One (gulp) good thing about Bill Hall is that he's versatile enough to serve as both a utility IF and capable OF (another good thing is his -1.5 mil cap number . . .) 2) What do the Sox do with Suppan? don't know that they would take him or his contract 3) I think Hart has, in a very short time span, gone from wildly overrated to wildly underrated on this board. Yes, Hart is a big dude with a LOOOOONG swing with lots of holes in it. No, he's not gonna put up a near-.900 OPS again like he did in '07, but he still a decent RF with 20/20 ability that has value, even as a starter, if he can continue to past OPS north of .750. Hart had the best BB rate of his career last year. If he can maintain the gains in isoD that he made last year and get his slugging back up to his '08 level, Hart could approach a line of .265/.330/.450 - not too bad - certainly not flotsam or jetsam (whatever that is) Edit: Make that 4 concerns . . . 4) Lowell might not pass a physical AND is only capable of playing 1B, DH, and 3B sparingly, where the Brewers already have Prince, Gamel, and McGehee Edit2: I still think Lowell can hit though, even with the thumb injury.

The problem with this reasoning (on the part of Law) is that Escobar is exactly the type of player that is among the most valuable. He's capable of starting every day now, will be making the league minimum salary for at least 2 years, and will be cheap/cost controlled for most of the next 6 years. he offers well above average, possibly great, defense at one of the most critical defensive positions (and therefore lower offensive expectations) and has a very low probability of being a complete bust. I doubt he ever hits 15 HR in a season though

From what I've seen from Castro, I think his glove might be better than Escobar's too (which is saying something . . .). Really smooth at SS. I do think that he undervalues the fact that Escobar is ready to start in the majors RIGHT NOW though. It seems (from the chat) that the only think KLaw loves more than upside is himself . . . All in all, some puzzling individual rankings, but it's one (very informed) man's opinion and nothing more

Damon is not a RF and could not play RF. His range is diminishing and his arm is historically bad - probably the weakest I've ever seen.

which is particularly strange because depth/high ceiling players in the lower levels is the strength of the Red Sox system too. However, I don't think you'll find a better 21-40 or 41-60 than the Red Sox have. The depth is truly amazing. Still, definitely not worthy of the #2 spot over the likes of the Rays. Haven't looked closely enough to rank everyone, but I would guess that I would put the Sox at around 7 or 8 with the Brewers in the 15ish-18ish range

agreed. I think that they're underrating the system's depth in the bottom half of the top 20.

He's really just a DH at this point, or a poor LF, and is declining with age. Don't think he's a good fit with this team.

Absolutely. 40-man spot = major league contract. Minor league contract = not on 40-man.You're right. my fault. In any case, Mulder would probably demand a clause in his contract allowing him to opt out if he isn't added/called up by a certain date. The MiLB deal would solve the problem of immediate 40-man constraints though.

Not much upside in Garland, true, but he has pitched 190+ innings in each of the past 8 seasons - every full season as a MLB starter. That kind of durability has value. He also pitched to an ERA around 4.00 in his only season in the NL (albeit in the NL West and weighted by his stint in LA). Garland is the definition of a league average innings-eater. If you can sign him to a 1-2 yr deal for 6-7 mil per it's a safe investment.

I prefer Bush over both Maine and Washburn. The only FA pitcher that would be a significant upgrade is Bedard, and I'm sure he could be had on a 1yr incentives-laden deal at this point. Yo, Wolf, Bedard, and 2 of Davis/Parra/Bush would be a very solid rotation. Mulder would be a good sign to a MiLB deal, but he would still take a spot on the 40-man unless he started the season on the 60 day DL (and even then, someone would have to be removed from the 40 man so that Mulder could be put on before being placed on the DL, right?)

I agree with your analysis, but not with your conclusion. I think that you can live with a .680 OPS from a top-tier defensive SS. If he posts OPS in the .720 range he's among the most valuable SS in the game.

I definitely think Starlin's got the better bat, but that's the first I've heard that it was in any way "special" or spectacular. He's hit pretty well at each level, while being young for the league. In any case, both seem to be known more for their glovework. I watched a bunch of video of Castro playing in the AFL and he looked really smooth defensively, and observation echoed by most scouting reports. Watching him take infield practice with Jose Iglesias was unbelievable.

I think Rogers is a lot like Nick Hagadone, in that he has the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter, but the time missed to injury at his age and level has set him back in terms of innings buildup to the point that he will probably break in as a reliever, and likely establish himself as a solid 7th/8th inning setup man. Beyond that, while I think leaving rogers off my top 20 list was probably too harsh, I still have major concerns about his control. It is common to excuse poor walk rates in the first year after TJ surgery, as command and feel are the last thing to return, but his control was awful even before surgery. This problem is somewhat mitigated in a relief role because 1) high pitch counts per inning are not as much of a concern because you do not risk taxing the rest of the bullpen, and 2) statistically, most 1 inning outings will not be overly affected by poor control. That said, I agree that if Rogers has a strong start to the season, he could be fast-tracked for arrival in early 2011 as a reliever, possibly sooner.

Overrated: Mark Rogers - love the K-rate, but his BB rate is abysmal. Also, with only about 70 innings last year as a 23yro in A+ (a little old for the level, but understandable coming off injury), it's going to be tough for him to build his inning workload up enough over the next few years to be a starter. He could be a solid reliever, but I wouldn't rate him above pitchers like Scarpetta and Peralta. Underrated: Cody Scarpetta and Wily Peralta - If Rivas and Odorizzi are at 9/10, I don't see how these two come in 6 spots lower. I understand the questions regarding Perlata's likelihood to stick as a starter, but with their upside, these 2 belong at the back end of the top 10, or in the 10-15 range. (obviously not a huge move)

no Lawrie?

Escobar Gamel Lawrie Lucroy Arnett

My initial reactions: 1) Interesting that he puts Lawrie over Escobar given Escobar's proximity (ready now) and floor (very good defensive SS with light bat and great speed) 2) don't think I've seen Gamel as low as 5 on any list this offseason - does Sickels question his bat or glove? Both? 3) Braddock is pretty low at 11. I guess this is an indictment of his inability to start, but his stuff is very good. Maybe Sickels is just really high on Odorizzi, Peralta, Scarpetta, et al. 4) Kentrail davis is pretty high at #6. Excited to learn more about him next season.

I am equally puzzled with his choosing Ackley over Smoak, but I wanted to talk about Casey Kelly for a minute. I think a lot of people are unsure of where he should rank as a prospect. He has dominated the low minors while being young for the league at each stop, and scouts rave about his mound presence, feel for pitching, refined off speed pitches, and command. Unfortunately, he sits in the low 90's currently and doesn't have the velocity needed to have a great fastball at the big league level. Accordingly, unless he adds a couple MPH to the FB, his ceiling could be as #2/#3. The problem is, Kelly already excels at the skills that most young pitcher develop last - he has great command, feel for his changeup, and holds runner well - so he's hard to project because it's impossible to tell how far pitchability can take a prospect. Guys with his cieling at his age rarely get top prospect consideration, yet he's dominated the minors like players with higher ceilings do, and has a (somewhat) unique set of skills. I'm personally of the opinion that he'll add a bit of velo. He's got a good pitcher's frame, and the Sox have a really good track record with guys HS pitchers adding velocity. Lester sat in the low 90s (92ish) when he entered the system, and now is one of the hardest throwing LH in the game (I think he averaged around 96 mph this season). Also, in his single inning of work in the futures game, Kelly had it up to 95-96 mph, and it's possible he could sustain velocity in the 94-95 range with added strength and conditioning. If he's sitting 94 with the same ground ball tendencies, command, and feel for offspeed pitches I think he could be a #1, but it's impossible to tell.

I agree that the Brewers are at a disadvantage given their location and smaller budget. Right now, it seems that the front-runners are the big market EC teams (Boston/NYA/NYN) and (apparently) the Marlins (large Cuban community in Miami, perhaps?). One thing the Brewers do bring to the table, however, is a competitive team that also has room for him in the rotation if he pitches well in the minors to start the year. Chapman's agent has said Aroldis wants to pitch in the majors this year, and the Brewers might offer him the opportunity to do that AND win. Just a thought . . . Also, Dice-K is a horrible comparison. First, because of the posting system, the Sox bought exclusive negotiating rights, which meant Dice-K's contract was worth less than he would have earned on the open market (like Chapman). Also, Matsuzaka was a more "proven" commodity. He had been a highly successful pitcher in the Japanese league since a young age and had performed well in international competition. With Chapman, there is less knowledge of how performance in the Cuban professional league translates to performance in MLB. Also, he has not performed particu;larly well there or in international competition yet, so he's all projection - truly a prospect whereas Dice-K was undoubtedly MLB-ready.

I was only comparing Liriano to Prior in that both were hall of fame talents whose injuries robbed baseball fans of the opportunity to see greatness on the mound. Liriano in 06 was the most exciting thing to watch in sports. Like vintage Pedro, or Santana in his prime. I agree that Liriano has value, and can be an average-below average NL starter or bullpen pitcher. Problem is, his command sucks right now (I guess that's the last thing to return after injury, though), and I don't think he'll regain the velo he needs to set up the beautiful CU. I also haven't looked closely to see if he's made any changes to his mechanics. Like Santana, a big part of his success was nearly identical arm action with the FB and CU that made him ridiculously deceptive.

I think liriano's cooked, which is disappointing in it's own right. Beofre his injury he was probably the most exciting pitcher to watch. Must see tv. Just a shame that, like with Prior, baseball fans missed out on the opportunity to watch a guy who was all-time great at his peak.

dissect: 1. Alcides Escobar 2. Matt Gamel 3. Brett Lawrie 4. Eric Arnett 5. Zach Braddock 6. Jonathan Lucroy 7. Wily Peralta 8. Cody Scarpetta 9. Amaury Rivas 10. Jake Odorizzi 11. Lorenzo Cain 12. Taylor Green 13. Logan Schafer 14. Caleb Gindl 15. Angel Salome 16. Kentrail Davis 17. Kyle Heckathorn 18. Jeremy Jeffress 19. Evan Anundsen 20. Eric Farris

I'll buy this explanation. particularly since Gamel could probably play 1B

Ok. I've been thinking about this since my post last night, and I think the best comp for a trade of Fielder would be Miggy Cabrera. Both were young, talented power hitters with long-term questions about body-type/defensive positioning and several years of team control remaining (2 for Fielder and 3 for Cabrera). In Dec. 2007 Cabrera returned: Andrew Miller (2nd in 06-07 offseason) Cameron Maybin (1st in 06-07 offseason - 6th overall in 07-08) Dallas Trahern (8th in 06-07 offseason) Eulogio de la Cruz (6th in 06-07 offseason) Burke Badenhop Mike Rabello based on the timing of the trade, they didn't appear in either team's top 10 list in the 07-08 offseason, and while Maybin was 6th overall, he was the only player of the 6 in baseball's top 100 prospects in 07-08. Also Cabrera was traded with Dontrelle Willis who, despite coming off a bad year, was only 1 year removed from a phenomenal season, and the common perception was that he just needed a change of scenery and a winning environment. So, If we assume that Dontrelle might have returned Andrew Miller and Mike Rabello, that leaves: Cabrera for Maybin, Trahern, De La Cruz, and Badenhop - an A prospect, 2 Bs and a C. Accordingly, I think Ellsbury cold fill the role of A prospect. He was rated among the top 20 prospects in baseball his last year in the minors and, unlike some top prospects, has had a successful major league career so far, providing great speed and decent hitting at a tough defensive positon. I would also be willing to replace Ells with Casey Kelly - also probably an A prospect, though not as good as Maybin was. Bowden and Lars would be the B prospects - both were in the top 100 entering the season, and Lars was top 20. The C prospect could be any number of players. Kyle Weiland, Stephen Fife, Derrik Gibson, etc. Obviously personal preference would dictate the specific player in the deal, but I think that these guys fit the values of what would be expected in return. Edit: I think it's important to point out that I've said multiple times before that I don't think the Brewers should trade Fielder because they are a playoff contender right now and would likely be less so without him. I also disagree that Ellsbury is not special. He's a very good offensive player for a CF, and plays good defense there (despite his UZR this year). Also, unlike even the top prospects, he's a sure thing. his floor is high.