It makes more sense to look at Greinke in the past four years rather than the past 8 years; recall that he he pitched only 6 major league innings in 2006 and spent much of his season in the bullpen in 2007. From 2008-2011, Greinke has posted a 3.45 ERA; not on the level of Sabathia (3.10), Halladay (2.63), or Lincecum (2.86). I think using xFIP or FIP would draw Greinke closer (I'm too lazy to do that), but I agree that he is a very good pitcher who is not quite on the level of those guys, even if he is close. "The use of "luck" as a legitimate reason for success or failure is incredibly lazy analysis in my opinion" In many cases I agree, but often the reason that people conclude a player is unlucky is due to their inability to find any perceptible difference in how the player is pitching. For example, we keep hearing that Greinke is leaving balls over the plate, etc., but as And That posted quite some time ago, that does not appear to be the case. It is not necessary that results like this are simply due in large part to luck, but it is certainly a reasonable possibility. Remember that a great pitch can be knocked over the fence four a 3 run homer and a terrible pitch can be grounded weakly back to the mound; the result of a pitch does not determine the quality of the pitch, although that is an extremely hard distinction to make. My gut is telling me that Greinke must be getting the plate or missing spots in key situations, but I just haven't seen anything to confirm (or deny) that feeling. Ultimately I think the truth lies somewhere between both camps; I certainly don't think Greinke has been 5.7 ERA bad, but I also don't think he's having a good season, as the fangraphs writer suggested. I think we can all agree that he should get better results from here on out, although it may not seem that way at times.