HiAndTight

This debate has been answered to my satisfaction 100 times over after hearing Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson and virtually every closer I've ever heard talk about pitching in the 9th inning as being different from pitching in any other inning. The different is there and the difference is painfully obvious. Using the argument that it MUST not exist because Axford set a record for saves and then a couple years latter has struggled mightily in that role does NOT change the mind-set that there is more pressure pitching in the 9th and not every pitcher can do it effectively. Baseball is a mental sport. If you blow a save, lose a game after your team went into the 9th inning with a lead, it's going to impact your confidence. Those things tend to spiral. Axford's biggest problem has been his inability to throw his slider/curve(either or). Those are confidence pitches. The more fine you try to be with them, the more they'll flatten out, or you'll lose control over them, which is exactly what's happened. But again, when nearly every single pitcher who's been in that situation says it's a very different, unique situation than pitching any other inning.

And to follow up on this statement with another rather obvious one, we're talking about 3 outings that account for fewer than 3 innings pitched overall. He came out in his first outing and he looked as dominant as I've seen him save for that one belt high fastball to Dexter Fowler who all the sudden is Justin Upton(who all the sudden is Barry Bonds). And even that was a 96 MPH fastball that was up and on the inner 3rd of the plate. His off speed stuff was dominant, his fastball command was awesome. And since his fallout, he's now had And in the last two outings, he brought in Axford for an out or two and then tried to bring him back out. Eliminate trying to make him a multiple inning guy, and just hope that he continues to improve. And citing last year as an argument that he was terrible is flawed in my opinion. He went through two bad stretches and was dominant for the majority of the season. Of course at that position, when you struggle for a period of time, you're going to end up having an inflated ERA. If he pitches like he did opening day the majority of the time, he's going to be a very solid closer as not many guys are going to be catching up to that fastball up in the zone. I've always worried that Axford would be the next T-bow, but he's gotten it back after short term struggles. As for Olmsted, he also seems to have really turned it around since his blow up inning for Nashville.

So Rogers has absolutely ZERO value as a trade target despite looking absolutely dominant at times last year, albeit in limited action, but Blanks is a definitely someone you would want, but Fiers is just way too much to give up for him? Rogers came in last year and was showing a big time mid to upper 90's fastball, and a dominant put away off-speed pitch. A pitcher, even with his shoulder surgery how many years ago and then the carpal tunnel which there is no reason to believe will come back, I highly doubt he'd make it through waivers. I don't think a trade of a pitcher with Rogers talent and incredible stuff would be a ridiculous return for a player who's also 26 and has shown nothing in the big leagues himself. Just the risk(very low for a guy like Blanks) vs Reward(very high for a guy like Rogers makes the suggestion that not only would this trade not be considered, but that Rogers may not even be claimed on waivers. Rogers lost a couple years to injuries, the latest obviously the carpal tunnel, however that's not a risk moving forward. If you can pick up a guy with his strikeout ability and his potential velocity on waivers, I'm guessing there would be plenty of teams biting.

And what seasons have ANY of those players ever put up GREAT seasons for their position?

And after our 96 win season, when you add Henderson, Badenhop, Figaro, Gorzelanny, Kintzler, and Gonzalez who I have no doubt will turn back into the legit loogy he's been his entire career, it could very well be brilliant. Axford's thrown less than 3 bad innings this year. So a bit early to write him off as well as he bounced back last year. And as I pointed out, while K-Rod had a down year last year, that was in part due to an inflated HR ratio, and a bit of a down season(though still possessing a FIP and XFip below 4.00).

To me, this says Yuni's days with the big club are numbered. At least... I hope they are. Not to me. They gave him a major league contract, and with both Hart and Aram still out, I doubt that Bianchi is going to replace Yuni B. By the way, yeah, as our starter for 162 games, he's bad,although I gotta be honest, using the eye test, he really wasn't as bad as I thought he'd be, especially in the field....but I digress. We're not talking about Betancourt as a guy we'd like to see starting, and I don't see why we're so confident that Bianchi is going to out perform Yuni B. We're talking about a career .188/.230/.338 and a .578 OPS guy. 33 games, tiny sample size so I'm not saying he can't play(his minor league numbers are pedestrian). I think Lalli would likely be the guy sent back down and when either Hart or Aram(and certainly when both are back provided nobody else goes down) then Yuni B should be replaced, but I don't think it'll be soon by Bianchi.

He's a proven reliever who had a down year last year, but not a T-Bow year or anything. I hardly think 2 million dollar for a pitcher with his track record is that crazy. The longer it goes of course the less likely that 2 million is, but unless we're again talking about his personal life, than I'm completely lost how 2 million is a "dream world," in today's market for a pitcher like K-Rod. Maybe so, but if he was really that valuable I'd have thought that someone would have taken him basically for free at the deadline last season or signed him to a deal in the off-season. My guess is that he is looking for the kind of money they are talking about and there are no takers at that price, if he was willing to take less, he would have gotten a shot in spring training somewhere. Maybe he could go fishing with Derek Lee, Jermaine Dye and Latrell. Since when is 2 million dollars really "that valuable," in today's MLB? My guess is that he was looking for a larger contract with a team like the Tigers where he had a chance to earn back a closers job and hasn't found it, and it waiting until a favorable situation presents itself. I still can't see how 2 million dollars for a pitcher with his track record is "dreaming," when you look at what countless other relievers have gotten paid.

Yeah, he really does look advanced. This doesn't strike me as a....Yuni B type hot streak, just a hitter who really has a good understanding of the zone, a good amount of pop in his bat, speed and he's an aggressive and pretty smart baseball player. Certainly not lacking for speed. To me it's a risk/reward scenario. If he turns out to be an average or below average SS. He only hits .250/.310/.385 with 20 SB's and 5-8 Hr's a year and an average defensive player. Now the flip side, he's a solid .285 hitter who can push .300 in a given year, a .340-.350 OBP, plus defense, base running..etc... If you were to give him 8 years and 45 million(some incentives to make it worth 50 with all-star games and such, perhaps super 2 status) and he only becomes that first player, are you really losing that much? Would it be that hard to trade him to a team in need of what would still be a young SS in 4 years barring any major injuries. If he becomes the second player, you've got another player who's going to be one of the best steals in the game. Even if you land somewhere in the middle, for a average to above average defender out there(and with his arm and what I've seen so far, I absolutely lean toward the side of being a very good defender). Which is why I brought it up. While he doesn't have the pedigree of the players I mentioned, I think what he's shown us last year and then this spring and to start the season makes this at least an interesting time to START talking about this as a potential move after this season. Had we not moved very early on Braun, he probably would have signed a 10 year 250 million dollar deal this past off-season...not that this is news to anyone, but I've always believed you sign your best young position players as early as possible and buy out as many years of free agency as possible. Segura's the only one right now I can see doing this with.

My guess is because they're looking for a late inning reliever and they don't want to bring up Hand and throw him into the SU role right out of the gate. Or even someone who can come up and close. And while I know the general consensus on this board is that the 9th is no different than any other inning, I don't believe or agree with that, and every big league pitcher I've heard talk about it has backed that up. It's just tough to quantify. So, that is why IMO rather than bringing up a guy like Olmsted who's pitched brilliantly since his first blow up. Or others who look good, Manzanillo, Wooten, Sanchez, Hand being the most obvious, Wooten...and on and on. So I can both understand why they'd want K-Rod and why some on here wouldn't. Frankly I wasn't really on board with the Lohse signing, so I'd rather just go with all our young guys since we're already 6 games under .500 and at this point at least hope Lohse keeps dealing like he has been and you know some team will give you a nice prospect of a package for Lohse in 2-3 months.

He's a proven reliever who had a down year last year, but not a T-Bow year or anything. I hardly think 2 million dollar for a pitcher with his track record is that crazy. The longer it goes of course the less likely that 2 million is, but unless we're again talking about his personal life, than I'm completely lost how 2 million is a "dream world," in today's market for a pitcher like K-Rod.

The only thing is with the Lucroy deal, we save money, but we didn't buy out any free agent years I didn't think. I was thinking more along the lines of buying out a couple free agent years. And yes, it was something I was just tossing around right now in preparation for next year. And I'm not really worried about him not sticking at shortstop, though I see no reason as of now that he wouldn't. In fact, if the Angels hadn't had him at SS in the minors, I doubt that prospect would even get brought up on here. He's shown he's got all the tools. Again though, he's clearly not in the league of the three players I mentioned, but they all signed those deals a long time ago now, and locking up a very good offensive and defensive SS while buying out 3 FA years...I was just throwing out 8/45 as a jumping off point. I can't fathom he'd sign a Lucroy like deal if he has a good year this year(.275/.335/.430 with good defense and 10/20 which I think are all within reach). He signed a 5 year deal for like...10.5 million and with a team option for 5.5 million. I definitely would NOT sign Peralta anytime soon. 6 years would be a long commitment to such a young power arm as it is. I think it just makes more sense to lock up your position players as early-as soon as your convinced they're deserving and see how it goes with the young arms.

Yeah, it certainly makes sense if you're talking about a prep arm who's moved quickly, or a Peralta type guy, Rogers obviously. But Nelson in particular seems like the type of guy who we should be trying to push a little bit more. With no serious injury history, it'd be nice to see him go maybe 90 pitches when he's dealing like he was. Could have gotten him into the 8th inning.

I believe it was after his second or third major league game. Segura is no where near the level of players you mention and probably never will be. I think he'll be good but not good enough that a team like the Brewers should lock him up long term. Of course he's not on the same level as Longoria, but I'm also taking into consideration when the contracts were signed. And I don't believe he has to be on the same level as Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria for it to make sense to sign him early. He obviously has exceptional tools, and if he loses any range defensively, he can still move over to a premium position. So while he will probably never be as good as those players, what's a good offensive and good defensive SS worth?

Obviously with 6 years of control left, anything getting done this year would be pretty unlikely, but how soon would it be wise for the Brewers to try and give him a Longo/Tulo/Braun type deal? 8 years for 45 million with incentives and a team option? Obviously he's not in the same league as the aforementioned players as a prospect, and we're a week+ into the season, so I'm not basing this simply on his hot start, but at this point and based on the praise heaped upon him in ST'ing from other teams, I'd like to buy out a couple years as soon as possible and get cost certainty. Again, I agree most will agree that this is premature, but I'd rather take the risk with players like Segura, Lucroy, Braun, Gallardo and potentially get burned by one or two of these long term deals(Hall) than try to sign them closer to free agency and pay 3-4 times what he could get now. The money saved from the three in that group that has signed is enormous(counting only Braun's initial deal). Plus, with so little in the way of young minor league talent, I'd be nice to have a nucleus signed for the long term. And if Arcia ends up becoming what we hope, he's obviously capable of playing 2nd...

Also: he's a terrible pitcher at this point. Win-win for you! I'd say terrible is grossly exaggerating K-Rod at this point. Even last year when struggling he still struck out 9.0 per 9 IP, had an FIP of 3.83 and xFIP of 3.71. The two years before ERA's of 2.20, 2.64, FIP's of 2.63, 2.72. And given the generally accepted idea around here that relievers tend to be very volatiles, I don't know that I'm going to use last year(which again, wasn't "terrible) and his 72 IP as terrible at this point. And his velocity is still almost exactly where it was in '08, his last year with the Angels. He could just as easily bounce back this year and put up similar numbers to what he put up for the Mets. So if you don't like him because of the personal issues, that's fine, but I think the objections to how terrible he is, given our current state are a bit unfounded. Plus his numbers were inflated with a career high HR rate last year.

Certainly not if he can keep throwing like he has been. The only thing I don't understand is how the Brewers have been talking about how important starting pitchers learning how to pitch in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings is. Now of course you're not going to push a power arm in AA to 110 pitches at this point in this season, but he threw 72 pitches tonight and obviously was pretty dominant after the 1st, and I don't believe he threw 80 pitches in his first start. For a guy who pitched 3 years of college ball and is supposed to be a horse and a big innings eater, it'd be nice to see them push him just a touch more. 72 pitches, he's rolling, bring him back out for the 6th inning...

I don't recall Beckham being involved in the Prince trade talks, but Melvin was actively shopping Prince that off-season, he simply couldn't find takers at the price he thought he was worth. So it wasn't a lack of interest on Melvin's part, it was a lack of interest in Prince at the time. And then of course they went and traded for two good pitchers and went for it and won 96 games. I love Yo, but he's not the type of guy that I think you can win in the post-season with as your #1 type pitcher and the Brewers seem to be slowly declining, age is becoming an issue at many positions, and our farm system is barren. The only guys I wouldn't consider trading at this point are Braun and Segura. Other than that, and especially if we're well out of it by the trade deadline, I'd be willing to trade anyone else(aside of course from the rookies and young arms).

Fwiw, I don't think Law is being biased against the Brewers. I just don't think very much of his prospect rankings in general. That's a much better way of putting it. I don't think many people who follow Law think very highly of him, and even in many of his articles he'll respond and he comes off as petty and ridiculous for engaging people in the comments section. I think he's a very arrogant guy, and I think he's the type of guy who's not going to back off his opinion, even if it's proven wrong. And by the way, to those who said that they don't believe there is a Mike Trout, Ryan Braun type prospect out there, I do. Jurickson Profar. A SS with his defensive ability, bat, speed...and excellence at a young level make him a prime candidate to put up a huge 8-10 war season in the future. Doesn't have to be his rookie year for him to be as good of o prospect as Trout. In any event, the point was well taken.

Awesome post. Obviously some people have different opinions, but I'm with you on Coultier. It is aggressive, but he showed such a mature approach at such a young age that I think it's valid. One tiny note though, he didn't go from 189 to 220 this year. He stopped wrestling as a Soph in HS, and the fact that he wrestled 189 suggests he was probably 200 pounds already as a Soph and has just added muscle and developed a little more since quitting wrestling as a Sophomore in HS. That's not really the point though, just saying I don't think he's a guy who went out and just threw on 30 pounds from the end of wrestling season to the summer. Had he, it wouldn't likely be very good weight from my experience, and he doesn't look like he's done that.

Paying market value (which is set artificially high by the large markets) Just taking a portion out of Crew07's, setting aside the trading of Braun conversation for a second, large market teams don't set the market artificially high. They simply set the market. There is nothing "artificial," about it. The only way I could see how you could set the market "artificially high," is if teams like the Royals, Pirates, Twins, D-backs, Rays, etc..etc....started spending significantly more than they previously had because they'll all have a large influx of revenue in the next couple years. But teams doing what they've been doing since free agency doesn't make the market artificial, it makes it simply the market. Though Randy Leivine commented rather in depth on this issue and has done so several times where he talks about how the face of free agency is changing with the impending luxury tax, and the Yankee's(again, just an example as the most notworthy team) being ordered to cut their payroll to get under 189 by the time the luxury tax kicks in, impacting premier talent like Cano, and potentially putting Granderson on the market as well as almost certainly putting Swisher on the market(as they've already come out and essentially said he won't be back due to payroll concerns). I agree with a great deal of what you're saying Crew07, but you just simply take it too far. You can't trade every player once they hit the ages you're suggesting, 29, 30 and "recycle," them for younger talent. The Brewers tried doing that for years. You need to have a balance that you just seem unwilling to come to. There are dozens of superstar players who succeed well into their 30's. You certainly shouldn't sign a guy like Lincecum to a 20+ million dollar a year deal through age 36/37, but there's a happy medium. Teams DO need veterans, and you do have to pay for proven talent at times. Preferably your own proven talent. But this talk about totally recycling players, bringing up Braun's injuries. Braun's off to a HOF start and has played in; 151 158 157 150 154 games the last 5 years(after he played 131 games for the Brewers his rookie season). There are special and unique players that you DO hold onto. And I don't think there will be dead money in his current contract. It goes through his age 36 season, and with all the money pouring into MLB and the money that will be pouring into MLB over the next couple years, I suspect he'll still be a bargain, even if he does miss more games than he has previously. Lawrie for Marcum makes your point perfectly. Talking now about trading Braun, as I said, IMO, takes it way too far(by now, I mean, even bringing it up suggesting we should do so in the next 2-3 years or whenever your window is).

Should have just read your post and said, "uh-huh." I think he can still be OUR ace with his velocity(which is better close to Gallardo's). It's his change that seemed to kill him this year...and his slider isn't what it used to be, and as has been mentioned, he's thrown that twice as much the last two seasons.

Yeah, I didn't get that part of it either. If Jake Peavy's likely to have his 22 million dollar option turned down coming off a fantastic year in which he threw 217 innings, I'm not sure why Lincecum would be worth 22 million, AND three of our more valuable prospects, two of whom are pitchers, one of whom has an upside of a #1 or 2 himself. If the Giants wanted to dump him, and they'd be willing to take 10 million, I'd be alright with this type of one year fix. With him taken out of their rotation, I have absolutely no feel right now for what they value him at, or what they're going to do with him. I'm just saying that for a guy his size, with his decreased velocity and coming off a year in which he was the worst starting pitcher of all who qualified(using ERA at least) with a 5.17 ERA in a HUGE hitters park, he's got negative value to me, regardless what's in his trophy case. Now.....to play devils advocate, these ARE the type of pitchers I like to see the Brewers go after. Him, Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Sheets, I wanted them to try and get Smoltz towards the end. But only if you're risk is moderate enough that the downside isn't crippling your team financially and your farm system. Lincecum DID have a 3.68 xFIP, he will likely still be a very good pitcher. But what you're proposing we give us ASIDE from 6 years and 120 million dollars is something you ONLY give up if you're getting a top 10 pitcher in the game, and you're on the cusp of winning it. I wouldn't give up that package for Roy Halladay and I think he's still one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game.

He said that he was going to be back in 2014. Given how pitchers come back from Tommy John, sometimes even adding a tick or two, I think it's likely he'll be back. I mean, if he's committed to it, there aren't enough good pitchers out there that Randy Wolf isn't going to be given a chance. And looking at his overall career...he's a pretty impressive pitcher. Overall, given the general consensus behind MLB contracts, that you usually have to pay for an extra year and bite the bullet to sign a player, especially in Milwaukee, I think in that respect, we got what we paid for in him. The last year was a wash, the first two overall pretty good. For jumping into the free agency market for pitchers, it's certainly not a cautionary tale like a certain former Cardinal.

Yeah, the rationale of having Seals come in and train in a team bonding exercise for the younger players trying to develop a certain mentality....GREAT idea. Then they took that great idea and said, "gee, what are the dumbest possible ways to go about this so that our own prospects are in fear of ruining their careers with this half-assed idea?" GOT IT...run across a frozen above ground pool, jump into sand, and have aggressive take out slides in the dark...oh, and make sure you include one of our best prospects regardless if he's injured. I could see the Seals coming in and taking 1/100th of the training they do and try and instill some mental toughness and the whole team building, winning attitude thing so they can change the culture, but this is so far beyond stupid... Are we POSITIVE Wendy Selig-Prieb hasn't taken over the Pirates? I really think it's possible.

Why 3b? Ramirez put up basically the same numbers he has for the last 8 years. I don't think anyone expected his defensive ability that he gave us this year. He was a legit GG contender. The way he comes in on a ball is impressive and he gets to everything hit near him. He's no Beltre, but he was maybe the best 3rd basemen I've seen on the Brewers since I've been watching. Now maybe it's just the result of us not seeing him everyday and the flaws in defensive metrics. I don't know. But as he hits his mid 30's, he would seem to be a prime candidate to regress. Catcher is a position that may see regression from both players. And who knows what will happen in CF. But you could also say that you could see improvements at 2nd base, and SS that would off-set those. I still fear a regression from Hart, but that hasn't happened as yet, so we'll see.