Averaging 30 HRs over the next 10 years I don't think will be a problem for Braun. Let's look at the next 5 year window at the end of which Braun will have just concluded his age 33 season (Braun was born in November) and just coming out of his prime. I think he will be around the 40 HR mark for the next 5 seasons, an additional 200 HR putting him at 402. Additionally, I fully expect Braun to continue at the 190 hit per season pace for those 5 years as well, an additional 950 hits putting him at 2,039. I don't think 98 HR over the final 5 years of that 10 year window to get to 500 HR will be an issue unless Braun falls off significantly or injuries limit him. 961 hits may be more of a chore but if he is at 500 HR and say 2,800 hits, it will be seriously difficult to keep him out of the HOF. Put another way, Chipper Jones has 468 HRs and 2,726 hits. Do you think he won't be in the HOF?