Warning Track Power

I am going to quote myself from the Twins thread regarding Kyle Gibson:

I hate this. If deGrom, Syndergaard or a TOR type arm isn't acquirable, start Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta for the rest of the year. Let the kids play. Don't spend prospect capital on non-upgrades.

With Davies (likely) being out for the rest of the season with today's setback, this move would make a lot more sense if the Brewers could send the Yankees prospects that don't need to be on the 40 man.

Quite simply one of the dumber things I have read regarding a team's plans. The Royals are 31-69 with a pitcher who will be 30 in December and makes $46 million over the next three seasons. This is flat dumb.

Excellent post. A great summary of where Woodruff stands in the rotation given the presence of Peralta and Burnes. If Archer were to be acquired, that's 3/5 of a rotation without mentioning Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Chacin. I would prefer Santana being included over Ray but doubt a deal of Woodruff, Nottingham and Santana is enough. If it is, then I am very comfortable acquiring Archer.

Do we have a winner? EDIT: Maybe not https://twitter.com/Duffman/status/1021846447715745792

The more I think about this, the more I am really intrigued by this. It would be a very odd deal given the Yankees are trying to add SP, but what about a 3 way trade where the Brewers send prospects to someone in addition to the Yankees prospects. Brewers get Gray. Yankees add a different SP. Prospects to the third team. Gray with Derek Johnson may help him find what he is lacking this year.

We had a thread dedicated to Manny Machado and now we have three active threads to other Orioles (Zach Britton, Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Schoop) and probably should have a fourth (Kevin Gausman). Given the familiarity with the Brewers system from the scouting of the farm during the Manny Machado discussions, I think this could be the likely destination for the Brewers to be doing business with this deadline. I like the pitchers a ton given their potential and their control (Bundy under contract until after 2021, Gausman until after 2020). Schoop...I like him but his career batting line leaves a little to be desired (.259/.295/.444). Britton would help tremendously and really make the games quite short with Knebel, Hader, Jeffress and Britton in the back end. I wonder what the package would have to look like to get both Bundy and Gausman.

I wonder if Stearns could pull off something like the following for deGrom... If the Brewers include Hiura, they hold onto Burnes. However, the Mets can have their choice of two of the following Peralta, Woodruff, Ortiz. For their final piece, assuming they want an MLB-ready piece, they can choose one of Santana and Phillips. Your package for deGrom is Hiura, Peralta, Woodruff and Santana. While I am not sure it gets it done, I would not be willing to include Hiura AND Burnes. Maybe if that package doesn't work for deGrom, maybe that package gets you Syndergaard.

This is just poor front office management too. I understand Archer is cost controlled but they aren't competing with the Yankees or the Red Sox anytime soon. Given this they need to move him for pieces that will be there when they're ready to compete again. If I am them, the time to move him is now...actually it was prior to this season.

I would love this move. The Yankees however can’t think they can deal Gray alone to upgrade their pitching in 2018 given how poorly he has pitched overall. Given how he has pitched, the absolute most I would give is a package centered around Luis Ortiz. Ortiz and Troy Stokes. Not much more than that.

But we would still have to worry about a 2B and at least one starting pitcher if this were to happen. I'm not sure this kind of a trade puts us any more ahead of where we would be if we just hang onto Hiura, our 2B of the future, and Woodruff, who just really needs to be part of our rotation now! Kind of like robbing Peter to pay Paul, or something like that. If you make that deal, you would have to follow up with a Dozier trade and, more than likely, try to re-sign him in the off-season. A future lineup with Realmuto and Dozier looks rather nice. Problem I have is there is little left in the system to trade for a TOR SP.

Would prefer Dozier but anything to upgrade the middle IF at his point. The Brewers are losing games because of the holes at these positions.

Sign me up for Hiura, Burnes, Lutz and a #20-#30 ranked player for Syndergaard or deGrom. Would sting but yes the Brewers need the TOR SP that bad.

This is probably the closest I've seen to what a Dozier deal should look like. I don't think the Twins are going to get a huge premium on "second half Dozier." I wouldn't even say Ponce or Medeiros, my offer would be Gatewood, Ponce, and a long-shot. Jon Perrin, Brad Kuntz or Jorge Ortega maybe. I like that trade infinitely more than my own deal of Santana for Dozier straight up. I would love to get this done today and have Dozier against the Dodgers.

WAAAAAY too much for Duffy. This time last year may have been light but he has had a down year and is expensive. If KC could get Ortiz alone and get out from under that contract I think they would be ecstatic.

Yes!

Consider the source...but I'll breathe a sigh of relief.

My thoughts exactly

To me, age (Syndergaard 26, deGrom 30) is why I target Syndergaard. Injury risk means lower cost for Syndergaard. While I think that cost I posted for Syndergaard is very rich, deGrom should command even more given health.

Come on Dodgers...or any AL team. I shudder at the cost to bring an elite rental like him to Milwaukee.

The Brewers window may not be 100% open but it began opening last year and is continuing to open further in 2018. Sure there are fears that some Brewers overachieved in 2017 (Arcia, Santana, Pina, Shaw) and that there may be a new regression candidate in 2019 (Aguilar). I believe though they are currently situated nicely to compete for the foreseeable future. Getting to 18 games over .500 has been sullied a but by there 6 game losing streak, but they have a core group of very good players under contract for multiple seasons. With that in mind, how do you approach the 2018 deadline? If I am the GM of the Brewers, the Manny Machados (elite talent but is a 2 month rental who would never re-sign in Milwaukee) of the world would not be targeted this year. The goal is long term competitiveness which means targets would be those with team control even with the understanding that would cost significantly more prospect capital. If I am confident in my ability as the GM to hire the right scouting department, I am comfortable dealing top end prospects with the idea that I can rebuild my system in over a few years because I have controllable players on my very competitive MLB team. Will my moves guarantee me the playoffs in 2018? No, but they will ensure the Brewers remain competitive now and into the future. Given my premise above, if I am the Brewers GM, my plan of attack for the 2018 deadline is as follows: TRADE #1 Trade Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Corey Ray, (lottery ticket) for Noah Syndergaard Yes this is the ultimate risk trade. Syndergaard has not proven he can stay healthy over the past few seasons and you are trading a potentially elite bat at 2B. However, a 26 year old controllable ace like Syndergaard is not often acquirable (especially for a small market) and when the moment comes, you cannot hesitate. Burnes hurts a ton as well but he remains a prospect who in our wildest dreams could become Syndergaard. Ray is seemingly putting it together but remains a work in progress (although a possible 30-20 work in progress). It's an ENORMOUS risk but one I take given Syndergaard is under contract through the 2021 season. TRADE #2 Trade Domingo Santana for Brian Dozier Yes, Dozier is a rental. However, he is also someone the Brewers could potentially re-sign given his age (31) and lack of long term solution at the position given Hiura's departure and Dubon's injury. Dozier is someone who plugs the massive gap at 2B for 2018 and could conceivably fill the hole in 2019 and 2020 as well. Santana moves to the AL and attempts to rebuild his career in Minnesota. The bottom line with Santana, I like Brett Phillips more and love the defensive OF with Cain, Yelich and Phillips. There simply is no playing time in Milwaukee for Santana. Split time between Braun and Phillips moving forward in the OF. RECALL ORLANDO ARCIA Yes, I want to win in 2018. However, Orlando Arcia remains the future at SS for me as Brewers GM. He needs to continue to play in AAA to work out his issues. However, Arcia is showing better in AAA so far and I believe his defense will still play given the offensive blackhole at 2B has been eliminated with the acquisition of Dozier. Recall him in early August and play him almost everyday. SPLIT TIME 60-40 BETWEEN MANNY PINA & JACOB NOTTINGHAM Pina, who was my candidate for massive regression in 2018, has shown 2017 may have been his career year offensively. I love Pina as a defender and he needs to remain on this roster moving forward but the Brewers need to determine what they have in Nottingham. His MiLB days should be done if he shows anything offensively over the next two months. Assuming he hits at even a .240/.310 clip with some pop, he and Pina should switch roles in 2019 with Nottingham taking the majority of the starts. WAIT OUT THE INJURIES TO JIMMY NELSON AND ZACH DAVIES If Jimmy Nelson cannot come back in 2018, sit him. This is OK. He was a developing ace in 2017 and if the recovery process takes all of 2018 then fine. If he can even touch 85% of what he was in 2017, a 1-2 of Syndergaard-Nelson is great moving forward. Same thing with Davies...think long term. Davies is a very solid back end starter who gives me great confidence in his role as the #4 moving forward. Will this get the Brewers to the playoffs in 2018? I don't know. I would love it if it would but I am uncertain. What I do know is the Brewers become a team with a rotation with an Ace and potential elite #2 if Nelson returns to what he was. Peralta looks like he could be an above average/elite #3 if he continues to develop and Davies and Woodruff/Suter round out a rotation I would throw against any team in the NL. The lineup of Cain-Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Dozier-Braun/Phillips-Nottingham-Arcia could struggle if Phillips-Nottingham-Arcia do nothing. However, reinforcements are there in Braun, Thames and Saladino for this year. For me though, the Brewers window is just opening and this may be the last year they have to really find out what they have on the MLB roster with the bottom of the lineup before that window is wide open. Go Brewers!

Honestly, I think this is where I am at as well. I would like to see this happen plus trade for Dozier for the lineup and ride it out with these guys. Keep a consistent lineup of Cain-Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Dozier 1-5 and some combination of Thames, Braun, Santana, Arcia, Saladino, Pina and Nottingham 6-8. My focus has been and will remain on acquiring TOR SP be it deGrom or Syndergaard. If the price is right, I wouldn't mind mining the next tier of Archer, Stroman, etc...

Usually am an optimist myself, and don't want to trade what's necessary to get Machado because he is a rental, but I 100% concur with this.