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Warning Track Power

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Everything posted by Warning Track Power

  1. Warning Track Power
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/cincinnati-reds-homer-bailey-agree-to-six-year-105-million-contract?ymd=20140219&content_id=67952854&vkey=news_mlb Seriously...where are the Reds getting all of this money? Votto $200+ million, Phillips $60+ million, Bailey $100+ million, Bruce $50+ million. That is just a crazy amount of money they have spent in the past few years for such a small market team.
  2. Warning Track Power
    I hope we aren't reading about how Corey Hart became the next Mat Gamel because of the idiocy of putting him the OF. That would be a serious bummer. If I am the Mariners, I am not even considering putting Hart anywhere other than 1B and only twice a week at that to save his knees.
  3. Warning Track Power
    I think the guy/s Melvin is waiting on is Cruz/Morales going to Seattle to make Smoak available. Jack Z knows the Brewers system and I have to think recognizes that Melvin needs a 1B and would be willing to part with his spare part, Smoak, in the event Cruz and/or Morales sign. A Cruz signing means Hart/Morrison/Smoak share 1B & DH. A Morales signing means Hart/Morrison/Smoak share RF & 1B. I just don't see the M's keeping Smoak as a backup IF.
  4. Warning Track Power
    Baltimore has been blasted all offseason for their lack of moves. Acquiring Jimenez and possibly Cruz and/or Morales now would certainly change a lot of people's opinions of their offseason maneuvering. Whether I would do these signings is another story, but it certainly makes them look better on paper in the short term.
  5. Warning Track Power
    Really? Scooter splits in 2013 against LHP: 41 PA, 39 AB, 6 H, 0 BB, 0XBH .154/.175/.154. 41 PA isn't a ton, but it does show an issue that should be prepared for. And your argument that he will get better against LHP has no basis. Why will Scooter get better against LHP with more ABs but Juan Francisco won't? What evidence supports your statement? Sure, Bianchi is capable but it has never translated on the field. Weeks is capable and has put up solid numbers in reality, yet you want to overlook them and argue for Bianchi. Bianchi's ceiling on O is Weeks floor. JB, you are the conductor of the train that is trying to deliver Weeks to another destination.
  6. Warning Track Power
    Starting a platoon of Bianchi/Scooter is arguably the worst 2B combo in the NL. At least there remains the potential of upside in Weeks/Scooter. Bianchi and Scooter together in 2013: .278/.312/.381, 7 HR, 46 RBI While certainly serviceable, I don't think anyone expects Bianchi to hit better, while most expect Scooter to hit worse. If we were to simply expect a moderate drop in production from Scooter, we might be looking at a .260/.295/.360 slash for our 2B. Weeks, even at his worst, can match the OBP & SLG against both LHP & RHP. The Brewers shouldn't be running Weeks out of town for a Scooter/Bianchi platoon or Scooter and whoever is currently in our system. While I really like Scooter a ton, it is apparent that he needs a platoon partner. In 2014, that platoon partner should be Weeks and the Brewers should worry about finding a cheaper RH alternative for 2B in 2015.
  7. Warning Track Power
    Hardy for Gomez was one of those deals that was a win and should have been a win-win. Unfortunately Minnesota gave up on JJ way too quickly as he won 2 gold gloves and returned to the 20-30 HR per year SS he flashed in Milwaukee in 2007 and 2008. I hated the deal at the time and quite frankly still wish JJ had never been dealt but it provided us with Gomez and that has been outstanding.
  8. Warning Track Power
    Kemp may not be available mid season should the Davis experiment fail. Moreover, if K Davis is preventing you from acquiring Kemp, I think you may be seriously overvaluing Davis. I personally think the Dodgers would target Lucroy which would be an obvious nonstarter. Anyways, my MO is the targeting of talent and the targeting of talent when it is relatively inexpensive in terms of what it would cost. Let's say the Dodgers didn't target Lucroy and we're wanting Weeks, Roache and Thornburg OR Nelson for Kemp and $28 million. I think the Brewers would absolutely have to entertain that offer as many here already want Weeks gone, Roache may not be needed with Kemp and Braun signed for the next six seasons and Davis, Haniger and Taylor still as OF prospects when and if Gomez were to leave and many people think Thornburg/Nelson profile as a mid-rotation starter at best. A talent like Kemp's is rarely available and for a package like this, I absolutely think the Brewers would do the deal, especially if it were to cost them "only" 6 years $100 million.
  9. Warning Track Power
    I will be honest...I'd love to have Matt Kemp on the Brewers. With his comments that he is not a 4th OF, I would have to think that the Dodgers, given the right scenario would be willing to move him if their plan is rotating him, Ethier, Crawford and Puig. Kemp would fill an enormous hole in the Brewers lineup at the cleanup spot come next season when Aramis may or may not be re-signed. While Kemp's salary is large, $21 million per year, having Rickie and Aramis' salary off the books next year would certainly free up some cash. The question for me is do the Brewers have the wherewithal to 1. Make the trade with pieces in the system? and 2. Have the financial flexibility to take on Kemp's deal, 6 years $128 million, provided the Dodgers pitch in say $28 million? A heart of the lineup of Segura, Braun, Kemp, Lucroy, Gomez sure would be nice for the next 3-4 seasons. However, what would the Brewers have to deal to entice the Dodgers? Would a Weeks, Roache, and Thornburg deal work? Would the Dodgers want Nelson and Thornburg? I have no clue what the Dodgers would want for Kemp.
  10. Warning Track Power
    Morales shouldn't be an option for all the reasons already mentioned by previous posters. I think once Nelson Cruz has signed, we will see the 1B market change. If Cruz goes to Seattle, then Smoak becomes available. If he re-signs in Texas, Moreland likely becomes available as they already have Rios, Martin & Choo in the OF. I just don't see the Brewers giving significant time to either Overbay or Francisco, especially in a year they think they are contenders.
  11. Warning Track Power
    Hopefully you're right...However, if true, we need to temper our expectations for who that trade would be for (i.e Smoak or Ike as has been discussed at length). Anyone recall the last blockbuster Spring Training trade?
  12. Warning Track Power
    I agree with you JJ, but I am not sure I can go all the way. I think Rickie's full season floor of 2012, where he put up this slash .230/.328/.400, 21 HR, 63 RBI, has parts that are WAY above Scooter's ceiling such as the HR and RBI. However, I think Rickie's .728 OPS is about where I imagine Scooter being for his career. But I think Scooter should easily surpass Rickie's AVG total annually. The real question for me with Scooter is whether he will ever learn to take his walks. If he does, then I see Scooter being a .290/.340/.400 guy or basically his 2011 season in Appleton where he went: .300/.334/.406, 9 HR, 51 RBI.
  13. Warning Track Power
    If Rickie does this I will gladly welcome him back in 2015 as the starting 2B. Him doing this would greatly improve our chances in 2014.
  14. Warning Track Power
    That's a good point Bnowell about Reynolds last season...However, I think that Melvin is using a smoke screen of a platoon with Juan Francisco or Lyle Overbay. They just are not good options and they would be playing a majority of the time if it were a strict platoon. Reynolds was signed to be the guy.
  15. Warning Track Power
    I am beginning to think that we have been duped by another one of Doug Melvin's smokescreens. I don't think we are going to see a platoon of 1B in 2014 at all. I have been going over the 1B situation and while I may want to see Butler, Smoak, Morrison, Moreland or even Ike Davis on the Brewers in 2014, I think Mark Reynolds is our guy and will be THE guy at 1B in 2014. I believe Melvin when he stated he wanted a "true 1B" for the Brewers this season and Francisco proved in 2013, he was not that guy. Taking D into account (Francisco was a -1 WAR on D alone) and then looking at the career O splits and I think Melvin's plan is revealed. Do we really need to platoon 1B? Reynolds against RHP: .232/.317/.460 Francisco against RHP: .252/.312/.464 Additionally, Francisco serves no purpose as a PH against intelligent managers. Bring in the LOOGY: Francisco against LHP: .179/.218/.221 in 101 PA only 4 XBH and ZERO (0) HR. The man is not good on D at any position 3B or 1B, he can't hit LHP and his statistics against RHP are matched by a guy playing the same position as him. I have to think that Melvin recognizes these shortcomings and Juan Francisco is not long for the roster, let alone as the greater side of a platoon at 1B.
  16. Warning Track Power
    To be honest, if they can sign Burnett I'd trade Nelson, Thornburg, Estrada and Tyrone Taylor and anybody else in the minors to start trade negotiations with the Marlins for Stanton, then we match up very well with the Cards and can win the division. We'd have to go 3 years for Burnett guaranteed to entice him. Money is the most important thing. I agree with the other poster that if it was a geographical thing he would have signed already. That wouldn't even get the conversation with the Marlins going I don't think. If I am the Marlins, I'm calling the Mariners add asking for Walker plus some hitting prospects to see if I can pair Fernandez with Walker long term at the top of my rotation. A package of Thornburg, Taylor and Nelson might get you...Matt Kemp and $30ish million of the 6 years $128 million he is still owed but not Stanton. Hmm...Matt Kemp at 6 years $90ish million might be a package I'd be interested in as the Brewers will need a #4 hitter to replace Ramirez after this year or next.
  17. Warning Track Power
    I won't delve into the economics of baseball and basketball but I will say that the odds against the Brewers are significantly more stacked than those against the Bucks. Whereas the Bucks play in a socialistic society, the Brewers play in a capitalistic society. I'd gladly take an 81 - 88 win Brewer team annually that never won a World Series, but that's just me.
  18. Warning Track Power
    I don't think anyone is necessarily advocating for Smoak, just like no one here has advocated trading Thornburg for Ike Davis. What we're discussing is would the Brewers be willing to make a move on Smoak, if the Mariners were to sign Cruz, given the Brewers current 1B situation. Moreover, if the Brewers could say acquire Smoak and Ackley for Estrada or Ike for Thornburg, would they be interested in doing so? Now, having said all that, I like Marco a ton and believe him to very underrated. However, having a deal like this, Smoak and Ackley for Estrada, would be intriguing in a ton of ways. Smoak and Ackley COULD fill 1B and 2B long term (Smoak would be FA after in 2016 & Ackley in 2017) for the Brewers AND Estrada is a FA after 2015. If they ever lived up to their potential, the Brewers could theoretically have added to their core of Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Braun and hopefully K. Davis, and have them all under contract for the next 3 seasons. Ackley is a plus defender from what I can see (1.4 dWAR in 2012 playing 2B). Again, not necessarily ideal to be dealing Marco, but intriguing if you believe Thornburg is worthy of being in the rotation, and personally, I am curious if the Brewers would consider this deal if it were to be offered.
  19. Warning Track Power
    Word is the Mariners would be looking for SP help if Cruz is signed. Not sure there is a match there unless the Brewers would be willing to trade Estrada and plug Thornburg into the rotation. If the Mariners want Estrada then I want Smoak and Ackley or Nick Franklin.
  20. Warning Track Power
    What would the Mariners be targeting in a return for Smoak?
  21. Warning Track Power
    This has been gone over at length on this board and I still think it makes way too much sense for it not to happen. The K-Rod signing has nothing to do with making arms suddenly available, rather it has more to do with the idea that the Brewers are positioning themselves as potential contenders in 2014 and currently they look rather weak at 1B with a Francisco as a platoon partner, who was a -1 WAR player in 2013 versus Davis who was a -.1 WAR player despite his struggles. Consider the ZiPS projection for 1B: Reynolds: 532 PA .234/.335/.474 Francisco: 380 PA .246/.295/.465 Davis: 445 PA .232/.330/.424 I could care less about the additional SLG% that Francisco will bring because (1) he is a butcher with the glove and (2) his OBP is .35 lower than Davis. The increase in defensive ability and OBP is worth more to me than a secondary piece of a bullpen like Blazek or a AAAA pitcher like Hellweg. Hellweg and Blazek for Ike.
  22. Warning Track Power
    I think a bunch of us seen this coming. And let's just say that a bunch of us here can likely put down the next predictable move is Thornburg for Ike Davis next. Since the Bullpen seems crowded, and no doubt in my mind Mark A./Melvin will get scared like last season with signing Lohse late in ST and take on Davis to be 1b over Reynolds. I am all for this provided it isn't Thornburg or Nelson that is traded. Kintzler can be dealt or any number of the other Triple AAA arms the Brewers have but not Thornburg or Nelson.
  23. Warning Track Power
    Yikes! $3.25 million with the potential to get to $3.8 million. I didn't think he would get that much but I do like the signing. The Brewers staff and rotation heading into Spring Training looks a little set already: SP (5): Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Estrada, Peralta RP (6): Henderson, K-Rod, Kintzler, Smith, Thornburg, Gorzelanny. If all breaks the way it should, Wooten/Hand/Blazek may be fighting for one spot (or two if Gorzelanny starts on the DL).
  24. Warning Track Power
    And to think we could have had him! Is Matt LaPorta really 29 already? Wow... And no thanks to Brett Wallace. A BB/K ratio of 18/104 in 2013 is ugly.
  25. Warning Track Power
    Sounding more and more like K-Rod will be back in 2014.
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