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xisxisxis

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Everything posted by xisxisxis

  1. xisxisxis
    Yes, in 2032, when inflation has driven the Brewers Payroll to $200M...
  2. xisxisxis
    LMAO!
  3. xisxisxis
    Wasn't it CC Sabathia? We didn't get a pick as the Yankees had already given up a pick?
  4. xisxisxis
    Here's Baseball Prospectus estimate of surplus value for the first 80 draft picks (based on historical data): JosephC can do the exact numbers, but depending on the actual pick, there's some surplus value in the range $2M-$10M depending on pick. Depending on the FA, that could have an impact on what a team is willing to offer. Mathematically if we go with the $1.5M per win based on Graham Tyler's thesis, it seems that the main driver for reduced FA activity is more a rethinking of value of a FA more than the loss of surplus value from the QO pick.
  5. xisxisxis
    That's exactly the reason you'd use a stat like wRC+ or OPS+ instead of raw OPS, because it takes that into account. Yes. My concern is that I don't think the changes the last few years that are leading to overall OPS declines are effecting all players equally (is the average at the same place now as it was in 2000 with respect to the overall player pool - or are the distributions of above average and below average the same now in 2018 as it was then in 2000-2010). I very well could be wrong in that hypothesis as I haven't looked carefully at the data.
  6. xisxisxis
    The collective bargaining agreement would be based on total revenue in baseball and they agree on X% to player salaries. The owners set up guidelines on how to meet that obligation (shortfalls or excess) and the players union sets up guidelines how to deal with excess or shortfalls to the targeted salary amount. At the end of the year, if there is a shortfall to X% then based on the owners guidelines, additional salary is apportioned to the players based on union guidelines. On the other hand, If there is an excess of money to players, then the owners withhold some of the final paycheck $ from the players based on union guidelines and that money is dispersed to owners based on their guidelines to account for the excess pay. The point is that the owners are only then negotiating with other owners on how to meet their obligation and the players union is installing guidelines to make sure their members are paid equitably. I would think you are right and that context matters. You can find Graham Tyler's Graduate thesis (PDF) at the bottom of the page here: http://www.perfectgamefound.org/tpgf-fellow-graham-tyler/
  7. xisxisxis
    I was responding to someone who said that his 2nd half (where the 101 wRC+ came from) was "not good at all". I disagree with that characterization and others that claim his 2nd half was 'crap' or 'not good'. @ 101 wRC+ it's below average for a 1B and average for an overall hitter. (I also disagree with going back to 2000 for overall numbers as there has been a decline in batting performance league-wide over the last 5-8 years - roughly from 2012). You also stated "If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong". I disagree with that, as the entire roster matters, not just 1 position when you are evaluating whether a contender did something wrong. A team can easily win a World Series having 1 position be the worst in baseball. The Brewers had the 27th ranked production from SS and 2nd base production near the bottom of the entire league (before Shaw moved over) and they still won 96 games and were 1 game from a world series. You might be aware of that, but the way you posted you were making judgements based simply on 1 position, which I believe is wrong.
  8. xisxisxis
    Oh, so teams are built of more players than just 1B.... Wow, so I guess we judge them based on 1B and DH... uh, oh there's no DH in the NL except for away inter-league games... so I guess we should judge whether a GM/team is doing something wrong based on maybe 1B and LF in the NL? or should we do 1B and 3B?... That seems so arbitrary... oh, I don't know, maybe we should use the entire roster? how about that?
  9. xisxisxis
    You'd have to think that other teams would jump into the mix if Machado's market craters to the point where he is seriously considering this White Sox offer. The 26-year-old was said to be seeking a 10-year deal worth more than $300 million at the outset of the offseason. I'd be amazed if either Machado or Harper gets an offer in excess of 7 years. I think the Yankees aren't happy with the Stanton deal length, but since Jeter gave him away for almost free they took the bate. I don't really see the Yankees jumping to his rescue, while the dumb money from the Phillies is likely the driving force for his market... I anticipate we will see a lot more of the opt-out clauses in contracts and for both Machado and Harper 'settling' on a 7yr contract with an opt out in 3 years (before age 30) could still get them another significant deal...
  10. xisxisxis
    Yep, the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Rockies did something wrong last year... Only 1 of those playoff teams won the world series with a below average 1B... I would put money on the fact that most people unhappy with the 2nd half have an observation bias based on the first half... The best first baseman last year had a total wRC+ of 145, Aguilar was 4th in MLB at 134. So for 60% of the year he was the best first baseman in baseball by a large amount and for 40% he was the 17th best. I don't think 17th best is not good at all... I don't think he's going to be 4th best in 2019, but I bet he will be top 10 and maybe top 5 again if he goes back to focusing on hitting his pitch like he did in the first half and not hitting pitchers pitches like he did in the 2nd half.
  11. xisxisxis
    It's been stated as fact that Aguilar was "not good at all" or 'horrible' or other negative comments by posters about his second half last year. The facts: [pre]Half wRC+ 1st 160 2nd 101[/pre] While not as FANTASTIC as his 1st half, his 2nd half was slightly above league average, which is GOOD.
  12. xisxisxis
    I found this bit very interesting: So the Players Union were told that this could happen and they didn't believe it. Maybe the players need to address with the union why they didn't get it right... To expand on what I posted earlier, the players union wants to maximize the amount of revenues that go to player salaries and the owners want to minimize that amount. They set in place the current CBA rules as each thinks different articles enhance their position. To prevent unexpected outcomes as the owners changing their habits based on current market forces, both sides should negotiate to a fixed % of revenues going to player salaries. Then both sides limit their downside to unexpected market forces.
  13. xisxisxis
    Might want to fix the title of the thread. Passan didn't confuse anyone - he was correct and the others are wrong (Haudricourt and Rosenthal have both sent corrected tweets to reflect "Mutual Option")...
  14. xisxisxis
    On a "Mutual Option", if the Team exercises the option and the player decline is the team still in the hook for the "buyout"?
  15. xisxisxis
    Not to mention Solarte = SPoS
  16. xisxisxis
    You might get 3.5% on a 5yr CD, but 7% is quite a few FED increases away... I heard AAA has financial options (banking, etc.) including Annuities with guaranteed no-loss that are pegged to a market index of your choice (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, etc). While your return isn't as good as just investing in the index, you have downside protection (can't lose your principal).
  17. xisxisxis
    LOL, that reads like a post straight out of the Brewers Twittersphere. Replace Cashman with George Steinbrenner and I think you have almost word-for-word part of a Seinfeld episode when Costanza worked for the Yankees...
  18. xisxisxis
    I know it's boring doing those tough parts of the job like responding to readers comments, but could he actually provide some information after the attempt at comedy? Manny Pina spent 24 days on the DL in 2018 and Vogt missed the entire season, which lead to the period of time best forgotten (i.e. the Jett Bandy days), and the need to acquire Kratz in the first place. Guess what, players get injured all the time and it's actually not much depth having 4 catchers in the top of the system when last year the Brewers used 4 catchers (Pina, Bandy, Nottingham, Kratz)...
  19. xisxisxis
    Stearns & Co are probably looking at tools such as this one from Baseball Prospectus to determine the value of picks. The Graph of surplus value vs draft pick says a lot:
  20. xisxisxis
    I'm not against the Brewers owners making money every year. I just think if you're pulling in $30M+ in profit EVERY year that at some point it would be nice for that "great" ownership to maybe only take home $5M for a couple of years to get the additional pieces to maybe win a world series. We were 1 game away last year from being in the series, we didn't lose many pieces from that team and I think now is the time the owners should be willing to take less of a profit home. Josh Harrison isn't that type of move, Jed Lowrie would have been, Marwin Gonzalez would be...
  21. xisxisxis
    Sure in the off-season you can use money to acquire talent, but during the season their isn’t a very good pool of FA that you would go after so you’re using player capital to acquire talent. I don’t like Moustakas as an option as it doesn’t address our need for a 2B/3B option to platoon with Shaw. I would like to see the Brewers sign Gonzalez or Cabrera or maybe Miley if it’s a friendly deal. Outside of those options, I agree there isn’t much else that is bang for the buck, so save the money.
  22. xisxisxis
    Chase Anderson. While everyone has written him off, he didn't have a horrible 2018, he just had a problem starting games out effectively. His wOBA for 2017 and 2018 based on time through the order: [pre]Order 2017 2018 1st .275 .328 2nd .276 .280[/pre] From the game logs its clear that Chase often gave up a crooked number in the first. His wOBA splits for 1st and 2nd time through the order support that he was effectively the same pitcher in 2018 the 2nd time through the order as when he pitched in 2017. I think he makes a significant improvement this year and he will be the Brewers best starter with a WAR over 3...
  23. xisxisxis
    There was an interesting article I read recently (can't remember where) that pointed out that the "disciples" of Al Davis and Shanahan had an approach to coaching that emphasized that you needed to know both sides of the ball. So offensive coaches needed to know and understand what was going on on the defensive side and vice versa. No silos. What always struck me about the Capers defenses was that they were practicing every day against a west coast offense and an "innovative" HC yet they didn't seem to get better or use the innovation on offense to learn how to approach those types of offenses better. I truly think that part of the problem with both Capers/MM were that they started to silo and their coaches didn't learn from across the line of scrimmage. I think there's something to this approach as the Rams (for example) seemed to progress on both sides of the ball very fast, not just on one side (which always seemed to be the Packers issue - only 1 side of the ball seemed to be "good"). While it wasn't a part of the LaFleur media discussion, he was definitely trained in that school of thinking and I hope he brings that into the organization as an emphasis. If the offense can make adjustments plus the defense takes a step forward I think the Packers can be playoff competitive again next year and with a good draft and FA signings could become a "force" again quickly.
  24. xisxisxis
    Huh, I vaguely remember that incident, but had completely forgotten the players involved. Okay, cross him off the list then. Cross him off the list? Billy Butler is a known dick and he thinks he can screw around with someone else's money. Then when Valencia tells him to mind his own business and Butler doubles down with his "*****" comment... I don't have a problem with how Valencia responded after Butler escalated the incident. I applaud Valencia for his control...
  25. xisxisxis
    I can't get access to this site as I don't plan on paying or registering. Can you provide some info as to what you are trying to communicate...
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