xisxisxis
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Everything posted by xisxisxis
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Suter Has Torn UCL, Will Likely Need TJ Surgery
xisxisxis replied to OnaBadger58's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Tough News for Brent... Maybe the Brewers can trade a lottery player to the Dodgers for one of Clayton Kershaw's ligaments... -
The issue I have with your philosophy is it is unclear as to when you decide, then, that you actually have a contender. If 18 games over .500 (or 12 games now) isn't an invitation to shoot for the playoffs, then when is it? You have to know your talent. Was the great first half a result of "breakout" performances from a few players or is it more likely playing over their heads? Before the season started the Brewers were universally regarded (outside the Brewer fan base) as having less talent than the cubs and several of the NL wild card hopefuls. That was with Cain and Yelich. This season we've seen complete collapses from Santana & Arcia, Underperformance by Anderson countering another great season from Aguilar, regression from Braun, injuries to Thames, what we hoped/expected from Cain/Yelich and a fantastic first half from the Bullpen. Based on all of that it's not clear the teams record is reflective of the talent and they still have a poor splits against good/bad teams. Some of that screams luck/playing over their heads. I've been against giving up much for rentals because I don't see a playoff team in talent right now (at least with Burnes in the bullpen and Peralta in the minors). Sure, someone will throw out the 2015 Royals, but I don't buy a winning retirement strategy of putting all your excess money into lottery tickets waiting for the win and I don't buy trying to model a once in a lifetime teams run to a World Series...
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Ok, I'll try. I think both have shown periods of being dominant (Williams more than Barnes), the issue is there are days they don't have it and unfortunately, we have a manager who doesn't react to signs that a pitcher is losing it/doesn't have it that day. I'm not sure all RP respond to sitting for a half inning then coming back out to pitch. When you have 4-5 batters knocking them around, maybe you're 2 batters late for taking action. Williams put 6 batters on on July 20th in 1 IP and lucked out of it with only giving up 2 runs. On the 22nd (2 games later) he cruises through 1 IP and then he comes out for a 2nd inning and that huge dinosaur sized crap hits the fan... he's now been hit hard in 2 games since the break and 1 of them could have been avoided or minimized with a little thought from the manager. I don't think there's anything wrong with either Barnes or William, they just need better "management".
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I agree with everything you posted. I wonder if the issue with the Brewers modeling the Bucks is also due to the owner? My guess is yes, Stearns is the GM, but he is getting direction from his boss that the team needs to win as much as possible... It's not like it would be the first time that Attanasio thinks he knows more than the professionals...
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I still remember Counsell getting struck out by Jeff Cirillo. If Craig Counsell remembered the details of every one of his failed plate appearances he would have an intellect that would make Stephen Hawking seem like an idiot...
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Go look at Twitter...the reaction outside of Milwaukee was pretty terrible. I couldn't care less what a skewed sampling of the public has to say. The Twitverse has a lot of potential, but in practice is just another group of uniformed reactionaries... Truth suffers when brevity is the rule... Even off of Twitter I’m sure people were taking it the wrong way outside of Milwaukee. I don't have the statistics, but I would be amazed if more than 10% of the public is informed on topics they have an opinion about. Time after Time after Time I see people having an opinion without anything more than a tenuous grasp of a fraction of the facts... Google has been great at bringing information to people in an easy way, unfortunately at the same time people can't be bothered to spend any time looking up that information and attempting to resolve conflicting data... I agree with RoCo, who cares what people think outside Milwaukee. I've lived in CA for 30ish years and 80% of the people I meet don't even know where Milwaukee is and 10% of the 80% think its in Oregon... If you don't even know where the place is, you aren't entitled to an opinion about it or anything that happens there...
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So far in this thread I've read that Broxton isn't as bad as I think, the rotation isn't as bad as I think and Braun isn't as bad as I think. You'd THINK that this team was winning some games or we have hit the mother load of bad luck. Regression to the mean is my new enemy...
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I never said that Braun was going to play 162 games. What I was showing, however, was that Braun's production when he has played hasn't been as bad as everybody thinks. He's our 6th best hitter now and that isn't bad as he's still in the range of acceptable (not for his salary, but that's a sunk cost), but compared to even Braun from 2 years ago he is declining and will soon be our designated PH. That's a lot of $ for a PH. I would like to see a lot more of him batting at the back end of the good hitters instead of the middle and we should just shoot the bottom third of the order, starting with Hernan Perez and going up the OBP ladder...
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Simple projections don't consider the occasional hot streak, which Braun is long overdue for. The slash line is ugly, but to say that Braun has not produced is simply inaccurate. 23-25 home runs, and 80 RBI...the vast majority of Major League hitters would consider that a decent campaign. Which planet is it where Braun is playing 162 games in ONE season? Maybe on Mars....
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Hey Keon had 2 walks the other day, why look at years of data when you've got yesterdays stats to go by...
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That reminds me of a song from the Man of La Mancha which (I'll spare you my singing voice): [align=center]To dream the impossible dream To fight the unbeatable foe To bear with unbearable sorrow To run where the brave dare not go[/align] If he had built on 2017 in any way, I would guess that you might have the above expectations, but his approach this year has been abysmal and I didn't see anything in his contact rate/approach that he could ever get to an OBP of .350, but we can dream.... I have a wild theory about Arcia's offensive struggles this year. I'm thinking he's a guy that tries to emulate other guys and he's tried at times this year to emulate Cain who isn't necessarily a great guy for him to copy. I think this is all down to Darnell Coles and I don't call him out for every offensive lapse, so bear with me. Every telecast I watched before Arcia was sent down they mentioned that Coles was working on Arcia because of his struggles and invariably during the same plate appearance they would show Coles in the dugout with a clipboard... Throughout the entire focus on Arcia by Coles, he got WORSE, not better, so whatever Coles was noting on that clipboard is all the evidence I need that Coles is not the right man for the job. I believe it was mentioned that they wanted to take some of the movement out of his stance... If that was the idea that they could build on 2017 then they FAILED miserably with that approach... Coles needs to go...
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Each kid is different and I trust the parents and swim instructors know enough of each kid to understand what they will need to succeed. Some kids can be launched as soon as they graduate. Other kids need a life jacket for a bit. I think you're right and the reason the brewers have been so unsuccessful in the past was because of an archaic belief that you treat them all the same and the ones who respond to being thrown in the deep end are the winners and those who struggle are the losers. Back in the days (when most of the "instructors" came up) the cost of prospects was small, grinding through a lot and wasting resources didn't cost much so an approach of sink or swim was fine... It's good to see the Brewers tailoring the approach to the player because the investment today is huge that they make to the players they have, while the "accommodations" to each prospect to personalize their training/development is small...
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I'm more worried about Knebel's Sv/Sv Chances is going down...
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Please post about how they will just blow it in the playoffs anyways. They will, They will, they’ll blow it in the playoffs.... It doesn't work all the time and I have to use it sparingly... In fact, it only works about 50% of the time... So it could just be luck...
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Well if there was any worry about how Hader would look immediately following the controversy, it sure didn't seem to affect him tonight. [sarcasm]And your post clearly incidates you support Nazis, Racists, Homo Haters, Vladimir Putin and Kim Kardashian![/sarcasm]
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Davey Roberts Nano-Managing the game once again...
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It's going up now. It needed to be said so the 8th would go down the way it did.... Maybe if I didn't post that he would have still struck out the side... Naw, I am not a god, I just have god-like powers...
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I'm more concerned Haders K/9IP is gowing down....
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So if you actually throw strikes to Machado he makes out... what a concept...
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watching the brewers is like watching a bunch of blind kids trying to catch a greased pig....
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He's not going to even pitch to Machado with 2 outs and nobody on? Really? He doesn't get a hit >68% of the time, but no, the Brewers can't pitch to him... great our offense sucks and our team is a bunch of cats...
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So how do we legitimately improve our offense? Does anyone really think Brian Dozier is the missing link? I am in the hold tight this year unless a deal too good to pass up comes up. Next year: 2B - Huira is here; sign one of the 10+ FA vets as a backup plan (there should be a very good market for buyers given the number of players available). C - target Wilson Ramos/Yasmani Grandal in FA, or bring up Nottingham and go with Pina/Nottingham. SS - Arcia with backups waiting if Arcia can't hit still. Arcia's defense would be enough if we can get a bump from Huira and catcher. LF/1B - rotate Aguilar/Thames/Braun with Braun the odd man out when Aguilar/Thames are healthy.
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I have no problem with Fangraphs estimate as it pretty much is where I would peg it... I value Hiura more than Brinson so I would say Hiura is overpaying, depends on the additional prospects, but personally I would be looking for 2 better prospects overall than Brinson/Diaz (so less than Brinson and more than Diaz) and a better lottery ticket than Harrison as a package. I would strongly disagree that salary is going to be any kind of factor in the Marlins moving Realmuto. Realmuto is making $2.9M this year. Yes, he figures to get some nice raises in arbitration, but they have unloaded plenty of salary and have more interest in acquiring talent at this point. They aren't discounting Realmuto to avoid his arbitration raises. Based on what I've seen from the Marlins FO and the leaked memo, they are more interested in profit margin than overall payroll. JT won't make the team a contender in 2019, he won't put enough people in the seats to offset his arbitration salary, but trading him will generate profit and add prospects for future competitiveness. I believe there is good history from the Marlins that they will want to trade him next winter for the best package they can get. I doubt they hold onto him for 2019.
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2+ years of cheap control is still worth a ton, they are well within their rights to ask for an elite prospect centerpiece for Realmuto and some of the proposals I've seen for him would just be a waste of both ours and the Marlins' time. I misread the years left of team control and thought it was 1.4 not 2.4. In that context, yes he still does have value through at least this offseason as 2 years of full control is much better than 1. However, factoring in that time he probably is projected at 11-12 WAR over the next 2.4 years. This is his year 27 season so it could be his "career" year or he could still have improvement in his performance. If he isn't peaking he has a 1-2 WAR improvement cushion. Given Yelich value when acquired was about 20 WAR then you have to compare the values of each when evaluating the likely package. Realmuto may have a better value due to his position and the value of other players at that position vs. Yelich compared to average OF, but it's really stretching to say that Realmuto is way more valuable than Yelich. Realmuto will be arbitration eligible next season and be very costly for the Marlins and I image they will start discounting their demands as they have more interest in moving his salary. I wouldn't be surprised if most GMs are waiting for that point.
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The Marlins have been very firm with the Nationals that to land Realmuto, they need to start with Robles or Soto. And that trade was announced when? It hasn't because even the Nationals know that is way too much to pay for the return. The Marlins want to play hardball, I get it, but they can ask for whatever they want to, but that doesn't mean anyone will pony up that much money. The Nationals are out as they likely won't even make the playoffs. No need to deal for JT now, and if they lose out on resigning Harper, they'll need the farm to restock. The best time for the Marlins to get a decent package for JT was last winter and there asking price was way too high... His value is dropping daily and they will be lucky to get the Yelich package from any team at this point.