The issue I have with your philosophy is it is unclear as to when you decide, then, that you actually have a contender. If 18 games over .500 (or 12 games now) isn't an invitation to shoot for the playoffs, then when is it? You have to know your talent. Was the great first half a result of "breakout" performances from a few players or is it more likely playing over their heads? Before the season started the Brewers were universally regarded (outside the Brewer fan base) as having less talent than the cubs and several of the NL wild card hopefuls. That was with Cain and Yelich. This season we've seen complete collapses from Santana & Arcia, Underperformance by Anderson countering another great season from Aguilar, regression from Braun, injuries to Thames, what we hoped/expected from Cain/Yelich and a fantastic first half from the Bullpen. Based on all of that it's not clear the teams record is reflective of the talent and they still have a poor splits against good/bad teams. Some of that screams luck/playing over their heads. I've been against giving up much for rentals because I don't see a playoff team in talent right now (at least with Burnes in the bullpen and Peralta in the minors). Sure, someone will throw out the 2015 Royals, but I don't buy a winning retirement strategy of putting all your excess money into lottery tickets waiting for the win and I don't buy trying to model a once in a lifetime teams run to a World Series...