Eye Black

I’ll preface this conversation by stating that so far in a small sample Mitchell has looked very good. I loved the pick back in June, and so far he's looked even better than I could've imagined. The reason I bring up this topic is because a lot has been made of him likely needing to make swing changes. While everyone seems to agree he’ll be a fantastic defender, the reviews on his current in-game offensive approach and swing are more divisive. Since he was drafted last summer a lot of national evaluators have indicated that Mitchell is going to need swing adjustments to be an impact hitter in professional baseball. The typical narratives within Mitchell’s offensive scouting reports go something like this: - 80 runner - Shows plus to plus-plus raw power in batting practice - Choppiness in his swing which is geared towards hitting low line drives and grounders in games - Uses speed to take extra base hits by stretching out singles - "Slap-and-dash" approach has worked for him in college, but he has the build and power potential to be a middle-of-the-order hitter - Sometimes relies on his upper body too much, which suppresses his in-game power potential From the little bit of footage we’ve seen of Mitchell so far his swing is still that low line drive approach that evaluators have mentioned. He has had some fantastic exit velocities thus far (topping out at 109.7-mph), and he hits the ball so hard that even the grounders have a good chance of making their way through the infield if they aren’t hit directly at a defender. It’s admittedly way too premature to make any definitive conclusions based on the minuscule sample we’ve seen so far. That being said this is a board that’s open to thought experiments, so here we go. The question: From what we’ve seen so far would you want Mitchell to attempt a swing change in order to access more power, or do you think his current approach and skill-set give him a chance to be plenty valuable enough? --------- My take is that a significant swing change of any sort could be very risky. It could obviously have a huge payoff, but it could also be a potential setback to his development. With his current approach and speed I think he could be a fantastic lead-off hitter that gets on base and causes havoc from there. I could see an argument to be made that his decline phase could come sooner in his career since his current approach relies heavily on speed, but my counter would be that a swing change could delay his path to the majors which would also shrink his peak window. I’m torn because I do understand for those who have seen his incredible BP raw power how they could envision a 30+ home run hitter (not to mention the fact he's built like an NFL strong safety). I’m just not certain if the risk associated with a swing change is worth it for someone so gifted that he's already successful with his current approach and swing. Would be interested in hearing others thoughts? (even with the caveat that we need to see a whole lot more of his success and failure with his current swing)

Jim Bowden in today's article for The Athletic discussed the status of the trade discussions in regards to Josh Hader and the Padres. Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.

I never suggested it guaranteed they were some perfect match. It's an observation that given the status of their current roster construction they could be willing to discuss a trade. Since the start of last off-season (past 18 months) the Rays have made 23 trades involving a total of 61 players or draft picks, so I don't think it's far-fetched to believe they might be willing to discuss trading their current players. I think it varies widely by individual player. It's dependent on each club's evaluation of that player as well as their own organization's motivations, needs, preferences, and internal philosophies. We could spend all day quibbling over what we think a team is/isn't willing to do. Ultimately it doesn't really matter what we think, but it's fun to speculate here in Transaction Rumors/Proposals forum. I enjoy looking at attempts to value players including those who post surplus value estimates, even if ultimately there are too many missing factors to ever feel overly confident. One such source for attempting to do the nearly impossible is Baseball Trade Values. Again, it's far from a perfect science, but at the very least provides for some entertaining content that we can use to identify some general trends in value. Here is where BTV has some of the Rays infielders listed in terms of value: [pre]Player Pos. Avail. Years Low Median High Franco SS 99.7 124.6 149.5 Lowe 2B Low 6 57.6 72 86.4 Brujan 2B 32.9 41.1 49.3 Diaz 1B Low 4 11.6 14.9 18.2 Walls SS 10.6 13.2 15.8 Padlo 3B 4.8 6 7.2 Wendle 3B/2B Medium 3 3.5 4.4 5.3 Brosseau 3B/1B Medium 5 3.1 3.9 4.7 Choi 1B Medium 3 1 1.4 1.8[/pre] As I stated above, I don't think these are some iron-clad valuations. It does seem to suggest, however, that Michael Brosseau also isn't likely to be headlining a blockbuster trade for the Rays if they do decide to listen to offers.

Regarding the Rays, here is how Baseball Prospectus currently projects their infield playing time breakdown: First Base Ji-Man Choi (60%) Yandy Diaz (30%) Michael Brosseau (10%) Second Base Brandon Lowe (60%) Joey Wendle (25%) Michael Brosseau (10%) Vidal Brujan (5%) Shortstop Willy Adames (85%) Joey Wendle (5%) Wander Franco (5%) Taylor Walls (5%) Third Base Joey Wendle (35%) Yandy Diaz (30%) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (15%) Michael Brosseau (10%) Kevin Padlo (10%)

This part I completely agree on. It's a very good problem to have and the Rays have been masterful at navigating their roster surplus to either fill current areas of need or cycling them for other assets. As far as the other stuff, I guess I'm just not understanding what exactly you are referring to as nonsense. It seems simple enough that if a deal can be found that makes sense for both sides it should be pursued. If it can't, then the Brewers should roll with some combination of Shaw/Urias/Arcia/Robertson at 3B and see how it turns out. One other thing about the Rays current situation is that Wander Franco isn't on their 40-man (which is full at the moment). Have to imagine he'll be on the major league roster at some point this year.

Unless I missed it, I don’t think anyone was suggesting that the Rays were going to give anyone away? So if you had that notion I think you misinterpreted what was being stated. Obviously the Rays are going to require good value in return for any trade, but I don’t think it’s fair to characterize them as an organization that won’t entertain trading mid-20s talent. Under Erik Neander they’ve made an above average number of trades overall, and they’ve come in all forms (veterans for prospects, prospects for veterans, prospects for prospects, and veterans for veterans). Here are some examples from the past few years under Erik Neander where they’ve moved talent in their early-to-mid-20s... Casey Gillespie, 1B, age-24 at the time of the trade was ranked in the Baseball America top 100 prospects heading into 2017 and was traded during 2017 season for Dan Jennings. Luis Rengifo, IF, age-20 at the time was traded for C.J. Cron. Jake Bauers, 1B/OF traded following his debut season at age-22 in the trade that netted them Yandy Diaz. Nick Solak, IF, age-24 at the time of the trade for Peter Fairbanks. Jake Cronenworth, IF, age-26 at the time of the trade that was headlined by the swap of Tommy Pham and Hunter Renfroe. They also got back SS prospect Xavier Edwards in the deal. Nate Lowe, 1B, age-25 was involved in a trade that brought back 3 prospects. The last two are examples of players that were moved from their 40-man roster and back filled with prospects that didn’t require 40-man placement. The Rays currently have 10 infielders on their 40-man roster (if you count Tsutsugo as an IF). I certainly think there are scenarios where they would entertain moving an infielder if the Brewers could offer reciprocal value in return. Whether or not that means a Turang or Ashby type player would be completely subject to the specific player being sought. If they were willing to entertain offers for Brosseau I don’t think it would take a return near that caliber as a centerpiece.

It isn’t that the Rays are stupid, it’s that they have such an unbelievable quantity of talent and they frequently face roster crunches that can influence their willingness to trade good players. In the past 20 months they’ve traded away young infielders Jake Cronenworth, Nick Solak, and Nate Lowe. Those are all good players, but the Rays have a ton of infield redundancy and roster spaces are at a premium for them. In addition to those mentioned by wntrtxn21, the Rays also have Kevin Padlo who is MLB ready and could be a decent corner infielder.

His scouting report previously has been well below average power, but according to Baseball America that started to change a bit last summer. They said the Brewers alternate site had an internal “barrel” board for well hit balls with exit velocities greater than 95-mph, and Turang was consistently among the leaders throughout his time in Appleton. They still don’t project him for a ton of HRs, but said his peak could now be closer to 15-20 per season. If he can develop consistent doubles power I’d be pretty happy.

Daniel Robertson has yet to get a base hit in a Spring Training game, but he now has a .545 on base percentage in 11 plate appearances (5 BB, 1 HBP).

Jeremy Jeffress was released by the Nationals this morning (he was on a minor league deal) for what was deemed “personnel reasons” by Nats GM Mike Rizzo. Not a typo, the initial report says personnel and not personal. Jeffress also made some cryptic Twitter comments about his former agent.

Add Dodgers 25-year old infielder Zach McKinstry to the Dodgers incredible depth of infielders that project to be decent big leaguers. McKinstry has played some 3B, but is more than likely a 2B long-term so probably not a perfect match. Seems to have a decent contact oriented approach and swings as a LHH.

I've always felt he's a bit underrated and I think that would be a solid target. Obviously cost would determine whether the trade is feasible or not I had forgotten about the guy. Seems like a reasonable guy to look into. Ken Rosenthal mentioned on MLB Network yesterday that the Astros may look to shed some payroll this season in order to remain under the luxury tax threshold after signing Jake Odorizzi. The Astros were around $10 million shy of the threshold before the Odorizzi free agent agreement. Rosenthal specifically mentioned Aledmys Diaz as a candidate to get moved, pointing out it would save the Astros $3 million this year (and likely even more next season). If the Astros do decide to move Diaz in favor of a lower salary option, I hope the Brewers are in the conversation. He could play every position on the infield and as mentioned previously is a very solid hitter against RHPs.

I normally scoff at the “best shape of his life” stuff, but I’m cautiously optimistic that Garcia’s going to be an improved player this season.

As much as both instances pain me, I think barring an injury I’d prefer to start the season with both Luis Urias and Tyrone Taylor optioned to the Alternate Site. My 13 position players and 13 pitchers would be as follows RHH Keston Hiura Lorenzo Cain Avisail Garcia Orlando Arcia Manny Piña Daniel Robertson LHH Christian Yelich Kolton Wong Omar Narvaez Jackie Bradley Jr. Travis Shaw Daniel Vogelbach Derek Fisher RHP Brandon Woodruff Corbin Burnes Josh Lindblom Adrian Houser Freddy Peralta Devin Williams Justin Topa Drew Rasmussen Brad Boxberger Ray Black (Black not having options makes this difficult) LHP Brett Anderson Brent Suter Josh Hader

Jake Odorizzi has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Astros.

Today's lineup against the Chicago Cubs: 2B Kolten Wong 1B Keston Hiura LF Christian Yelich RF Avisail Garcia DH Travis Shaw 3B Orlando Arcia C Omar Narvaez SS Daniel Robertson CF Tyrone Taylor P Brett Anderson

Keith Law dropped Alex Binelas down to 29th on his draft board. He also dropped the previously mentioned McLain to 19th and said he’ll probably have to move to second base in pro ball.

In 2015 Royals were 7th in runs scored - had the fewest batting Ks - 2nd in batting average - 2nd in hits - 10th in OPS - tied for 9th in OBP - 7th in RBIs There have been three teams since 2010 that have been slightly below league average in offensive runs scored and played in the World Series, the 2010 Giants, 2014 Royals, and 2015 Mets. There have been two times where both World Series participants finished outside the top ten in runs scored, the first was 2012 World Series with the Giants (#12) and Tigers (#11), interestingly the Brewers finished 3rd in MLB in runs scored that year. The other was the 2014 World Series with the Giants (#12) and Royals (#14).

#41 makes me immediately think of Glen Rice, and he always seemed cool enough.

Jackie Bradley, Jr. will wear #41 for the Brewers. He said he chose the number because it's the sum of the birth dates for everyone in his family (19+17+2+3).

Padres beat reporter Dennis Lin wrote an article for The Athletic today in which he said it would be surprising if the Brewers and Padres reconvened and struck a trade agreement. He said people familiar with the discussions this off-season said the Brewers were seeking a package well above what it took them to obtain Joe Musgrove (which okay, I hope so), and that Milwaukee wanted a combination of both controllable major leaguers and high-upside prospects. Lin then indicated that one of the sticking points for the Padres was not wanting to give up LHP Ryan Weathers in a deal. So apparently Ryan Weathers was a hang-up for the Padres. The semi-ironic thing immediately following the Hader trade update in Lin's article is that he discusses the elbow injury to Padres bullpen member Jose Castillo. He says former Brewers first base prospect Nick Ramirez (Brewers 4th round pick in 2011) is now a candidate to make the Padres bullpen.

"Left Hamstring Discomfort" is the reported diagnosis for Urias.