Eye Black

Baseball Prospectus had a really good article on the anticipated impact of the deadened baseball, Estimating the Impact of the Deadened Ball on Home Runs The article is subscription based, but the author also shared his spreadsheets on the impact to individual hitters/pitchers for free, here’s the Twitter Link. A few takeaways: -If MLB went back to using a ball closer to the 2018 baseball then home runs in 2019-20 would’ve dropped on the whole by 7.98%. The important point is that 8% reduction is just an average across the league, and it would impact specific hitters and pitchers differently. For hitters power and attack angle vary significantly and for pitchers it depends of whether they allow harder or weaker contact. -For hitters there are two categories shown for individual hitters, (1) total reduction in expected number of home runs if the 2018 baseball was used during the 2019-2020 seasons, and (2) percentage of expected home runs lost. The first is obviously going to impact the guys that already hit the most home runs since if you hit more home runs you stand to lose more with a deadened baseball. The second category is the percentage of your home runs lost, so it most affects guys that are lucky and hitting more “fluke” home runs (because their contact and/or attack angle isn’t conducive to hitting home runs). The top of the first list for hitters was Mookie Betts and Nick Castellanos who would’ve been expected to hit between 5-6 less home runs since 2019 if the 2018 baseball had remained. The only Brewers player in the top 50 negatively impacted was Christian Yelich who came in at #40 with an expected drop in total home runs of around 3.25. The second hitters list that was percentage based was led by Amed Rosario who would’ve seen an expected 16% drop in home runs if the 2018 baseball was used the past two seasons. Brewers appearing were Lorenzo Cain who was 18th on the list and would’ve had an expected drop off of 13% in expected home runs, and Omar Narvaez who was 38th and was just under a 13% drop off in expected home runs. -So a deadened baseball is bad news for hitters, but quite the opposite for certain pitchers who are expected to allow less home runs. The author was surprised by the complete lack of correlation between fly ball rate and expected home run percentage (xHR). HR/FB% was slightly more related, but still not an overly strong correlation. They broke the pitching data down by starters and relievers. For both they used the percentage of reduced home runs expected based on contact allowed. Mike Soroka led the list for starting pitchers with an expected drop in home run percentage of over 14%. Among starting pitchers Brett Anderson came in 14th at just under an 11% expected reduction in home runs the past two seasons if the 2018 ball would’ve remained. Other starters list appearance for the Brewers included Adrian Houser at 29th, Jordan Zimmermann was 32nd, and Eric Lauer 35th, all were near 10% in expected reduction. Brandon Woodruff was 71st with near an 8% reduction in xHR %. ——————————— There is a ton more baked into this article, and definitely worth checking out along with the free charts. Obviously we don’t yet know how the 2021 ball will play in comparison to the 2018 ball, but if it’s even more “deadened” than we could be in for a lot less home runs this season. If it plays the same, then even an 8% reduction in home runs should be noticeable.

I am bumping this thread for a couple of reasons: 1) The ball is reportedly going to be deadened this season and I’m curious to see if it significantly limits positive offensive outcomes even further. 2) The numbers listed by sveumrules are league average, but AmFam Field in recent years has played below league average in all non-home run base hit categories (singles, doubles, triples). It’s obviously an above average park for home runs, but what happens if the deadened baseball causes a notable reduction in home runs? Could we be in for low scoring games at AmFam Field all summer?

Some Padres fans also seem to think Hader wants to be traded to San Diego because of his answer at the 6-minute mark in this video released on his YouTube channel earlier this week.

The Brewers are likely to play in a lot of lower scoring, one-run games this year. A top bullpen certainly seems like part of the recipe towards outperforming expectations.

From Robert Murray in response to the Hader rumors involving the Padres... Nothing to it.

The one thing I would add to the "arguments" list is that Hader is likely to get somewhere between $25 to $27 million over the next three seasons through the arbitration process. That's obviously still a reasonable price for his current level of talent, but is also something that diminishes his value slightly. Some people were surprised Snell didn't net an even bigger return, but the fact he's owed $40 million over the next three years likely dented his perceived value a touch. It might not be right now, but I do think the Brewers will trade Hader at some point before his arbitration years run out.

Interesting. Well that at least gives some credence to the Padres working on another big trade. Kevin Acee has been a very good source for getting the details of the Padres transactions this off-season. If it is indeed Hader, I guess I won't exactly be shocked.

I can't imagine having the best defense in baseball with Yelich in LF, Hiura at 1B, a position he has never played, and Narvaez at catcher. That doesn't scream "best" to me. Have we improved from last year defensively? Yes, assuming Cain hasn't lost a step. I don't really put Shaw into the category of an elite defender. Have we improved offensively? Probably, assuming Yelich and Hiura's acts last year won't be repeated. Shaw is a wild card. We have no idea where he will be offensively. We still have Arcia unless Urias overtakes him. If you believe in the Fielding Bible's defensive runs saved stat, then generally if you can get elite defense from 2-3 positions you'll rank in the top 5 across baseball (for team defensive runs saved). Of course that's barring sticking with a historically bad defender at some other positions for an entire season. The Cardinals ranked 1st in defensive runs saved last season and 4th the year before that. A huge part of that was Kolten Wong who accounted for nearly a quarter of the Cardinals total defensive runs saved the past two seasons. The Brewers finished 2nd in baseball in 2018 on defensive runs saved and that included Travis Shaw at 3B, a position that the Brewers were a very solid +15 defensive runs saved at for the year (CF led the Brewers in 2018 with 29 runs saved). Both Cain and Wong have historically been elite in terms of defensive runs saved. Also notable, according to defensive runs saved Arcia hasn't been a particularly strong defender. Click here for the Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved by Team (data provided from 2003 through 2020) Here is a look at total defensive runs saved since 2018 among current Brewers (for those with >400 innings played): [pre]Name Innings Total Runs Saved Lorenzo Cain 2401.1 41 Kolten Wong 2489 40 Manny Pina 1195.2 16 Travis Shaw 2073.2 10 Luis Urias 949 8 Luke Maile 874 7 Orlando Arcia 2539 5 Tim Lopes 461.1 3 D. Robertson 1282.2 -1 Derek Fisher 663.2 -2 Jace Peterson 905.2 -2 Avisail Garcia 1989.2 -4 Pablo Reyes 428.2 -6 D. Vogelbach 577.2 -6 Billy McKinney 846.1 -6 C. Yelich 2793.1 -7 Keston Hiura 1085 -13 Omar Narvaez 1755 -31[/pre] Cain and Wong rank 4th and 5th in all of baseball over that time frame (2018-2020). Only Matt Chapman (66), Nick Ahmed (50), and Mookie Betts (44) rank ahead of them. Interestingly, Jackie Bradley Jr. does not rank high in defensive runs saved. He's credit for a total of just 4 over the past three seasons.

Won't matter, Bradley isnt signing with us... Would have happened already after the tweet of us showing interest. Generally true, but Cain signed with us 3 or 4 days after the initial report of the Brewers’ interest. I do think the Crew are in the running for signing him. Even longer than that. Ken Rosenthal reported the Brewers interest in Cain in early January that off-season, and it obviously came to fruition three weeks later. If I remember correctly the whispers about the Brewers having interest in Moustakas also started during the off-season, and then they ultimately traded for him many months later in the days leading up to the mid-season trade deadline.

A couple of prospects I do really like in the Padres system are LHP Ryan Weathers and OF Robert Hassell III. Weathers pitched briefly in the postseason last year, so he might not be too far away despite his young age. Hassell was their 1st round pick this past draft (8th overall) out of high school and is a long ways from the majors, but he was the star of USA Baseball’s 18U team and he has a great looking line drive swing. Hassell would immediately become the Brewers best prospect.

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: If you type in "Hader" and "Padres" into a Twitter search right now you'll find a whole lot of Padres fans that think their front office is working on a deal involving Hader. From what I can tell it's just wild speculation based on some perceived bat signal from a Twitter user that didn't even mention Hader specifically, but some of them appear ready to buy their Hader jerseys anyway.

I agree with your initial premise, Cain has negative value when his remaining contract is considered. I also agree it’s extremely unlikely the Brewers would consider including substantial cash to move Cain. The part I would disagree with a bit is that it’s completely unfeasible he could be traded (although I’ll admit it’s “unlikely”). I think the only way a trade could make sense is if moving Cain coincided with another “bad” contract coming back to Milwaukee. For example purposes, lets say the Phillies were interested in Cain since they don’t really have a center fielder. The Brewers could take back Scott Kingery who has some positional flexibility in the deal and his remaining two-years and $15.5 million guaranteed (including buyout). For the Phillies the motivation over just signing JBJ may be that it both transfers some already allocated money towards a different player while also freeing up a roster spot from a player that hasn’t been very good recently. In any similar scenario it’s still likely the Brewers may have to include some cash, but not nearly what they would if they weren’t taking back such a contract.

In this case JBJ is a Scott Boras client, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if some of the reported “interest” by various teams has been generated as a result of Boras reaching out directly to team owners after not garnering the initial interest hoped among front office executives. At least in the past that’s been a bit of his M.O.

This is just total speculation on my part, but I wonder if they started engaging in Cain trade offers when they were negotiating the free agent offer for Justin Turner. Cain is owed $35 million over the next two seasons, so moving his contract would certainly open up some additional financial flexibility. Not sure there are many options for utilizing that extra flexibility this year, but maybe geared towards next year when there will hopefully be full ballparks again? My total pie in the sky hope (yes, I know it's completely unrealistic and won't actually happen) is that the Brewers end up making a massive multi-year offer for Corey Seager next off-season.

Some of Jackie Bradley Jr. projections as well as Lorenzo Cain's projections for comparison sake... Jackie Bradley Jr. [pre]Season Team Level G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR 2021 BATX PROJ 128 553 18 0 0 11 10.2% 26.3% .168 .285 .227 .319 .395 .311 95 2021 BAT PROJ 128 553 18 0 0 10 10.2% 26.3% .167 .282 .225 .317 .393 .310 93 2021 ATC PROJ 133 539 18 67 59 11 9.7% 25.3% .170 .291 .236 .322 .406 .314 94 2021 FGDC PROJ 128 553 19 67 62 10 9.5% 25.9% .173 .289 .233 .318 .406 .309 89 0.6 -6.9 3.0 1.4 2021 STMR PROJ 128 504 18 58 58 9 9.9% 26.7% .172 .278 .225 .313 .396 .304 86 0.9 -8.2 2.3 1.1 2021 ZIPS PROJ 134 525 17 66 57 10 9.1% 25.1% .175 .299 .241 .323 .416 .314 90 0.0 -6.9 3.9 1.5[/pre] Lorenzo Cain [pre]Season Team Level G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR 2021 ATC PROJ 128 557 10 72 48 12 9.1% 16.5% .119 .311 .269 .343 .388 .316 95 2021 FGDC PROJ 139 602 11 74 49 16 9.1% 17.4% .114 .314 .268 .342 .383 .314 91 1.2 -5.9 6.8 2.0 2021 STMR PROJ 138 614 13 75 57 17 9.5% 18.3% .122 .305 .260 .339 .383 .313 90 1.5 -6.3 3.9 1.7 2021 ZIPS PROJ 121 511 8 64 35 14 8.6% 16.4% .107 .322 .276 .344 .383 .315 91 0.3 -5.8 8.9 1.9[/pre]

Brewers are in the mix for Jackie Bradley Jr. according to Robert Murray... Sources: Brewers in the mix for free-agent outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. I advocated for Bradley as a trade candidate last August (with Cain opting out). Even with Cain back in the mix I'd be interested in the Brewers adding Bradley. The confusing part would be why they are adding so many potential outfielders right now. Are they potentially contemplating moving on from Garcia or Cain in the near future?

The previously mentioned HS SS/3B Brady House had quite a weekend including 3 home runs (video courtesy of Kiley McDaniel): House Home Run #1 House Home Run #2 ————————————— Here’s some video of Louisville 3B Alex Binelas from the weekend (via Burke Granger): Binelas Batting Practice Binelas Double ————————————— I’ve seen some placed drop UCLA SS Matt McLain into the teens on their draft boards. I think he would be a Brewers target if he dropped to them, but I get the sense he’ll almost certainly be off the board by #15. Here’s video of McLain from the weekend (via UCLA): McLain Double McLain Home Run

Per Braves beat writer David O’Brien: Jake Lamb deal, pending physical, would give Braves a LH-hitting backup corner INF option with power, as long as he can stay healthy. Hit 59 homers in 300 games during 2016-2017 with Ariz, but played just 65 games in 2018-2020 and hit .205 w/ 15 HRs and .660 OPS in 573 PAs.

Baseball America currently has a 60 grade on Hedbert’s arm. I respect Longenhagen a ton and he’s gotten in-person looks at Hedbert, but the same can be said for Ben Badler of Baseball America. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a wider grade gap between two individuals that have the sort of access to in-person looks and industry contacts that Longenhagen and Badler do. I’m truly perplexed on this one, and curious to see how it evolves. Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle?

Taijuan Walker has a deal with the Mets according to Andy Martino of SNY. Rosenthal reporting Walker received 2-years, $20 million.

I was going to add a question to his character. 3 teams shows promise, in his prime aged years have wanted to move on from him. I had to look back to find top 30 scouting seems he had an ACL injury among a couple other nuances and it sapped his upside. Speed, CF. Sounds like he's only fit for LF with not having a strong arm. I guess you look at him as only a LF without enough power to quantify it. 4th of with LF designation, I supposethat is replaceable with somebody that can flex to other positions. His BA scouting report from 2017 mentions injuries and concerns surrounding his conditioning: Ramirez has not been durable as a pro, and a left knee injury ended his season in early August. He still has yet to play 100 games in a season. Conditioning has never been a strong suit, but Ramirez is in a new organization and has a chance to change his reputation in 2017.

Based on both coming off the irregular shortened season as mentioned above, and the fact teams were already trending this direction anyway, I predict “five-and-dive” will become a worn out term this season to describe pitcher usage. It seems like bullpens, especially multi-inning relievers, will play a more important role than ever.

I agree that the Tatis contract extension isn’t outrageous by any means as compared to likely market value, but when you pair it with some of their other free agent contracts over the past few off-seasons it is a bit surprising how much an apparent “small market” team has been willing to commit financially. Joel Sherman pointed out that they now have four infielders on large contracts (of varying degrees), and this doesn’t count the Wil Myers contract which wasn’t small either or the $56 million left on Yu Darvish’s contract: The Padres infield of Hosmer ($144), Ha-Seong Kim ($28M), Tatis Jr. ($340M) and Machado ($300M) — the $812M infield.

I think a decent argument can be made for Urias starting the season as the Triple-A shortstop. Both Counsell and Stearns have indicated in the past that they believe Urias is a shortstop. Somewhat interestingly, there really isn't anyone currently in the organization that makes a ton of sense to play shortstop at Triple-A to start this season. They could always stuff someone out of position there like Mark Mathias, but that would seemingly be a wasted development opportunity for someone like Urias to get additional seasoning at the position. I am fairly certain even if he started the season at Triple-A that Urias would be with the big league club before too long. For the start of the season, Daniel Robertson has the ability to give them spot starts at SS. One of the limiting factors for Arcia is he really only has experience as a shortstop (yes, I know they've mentioned trying him at 3B, but I don't totally buy it). I do think they'll give Arcia the first opportunity to be that starting shortstop this year, but I get the sense there is a decent likelihood they'll be being willing to move on from him at some point this season if he doesn't perform.

It is a good point, and I would tack on having a market monopoly on sponsorship dollars as well. Being the only show in town gives them a lot of leverage when it comes to dealing with the companies seeking to market to the local sports fan demographic. Obviously that provides additional incentives and value to their media rights holders as well.