Eye Black

Same for me. Maybe I am setting myself up to be disappointed, but the fact Stearns has twice told the Brewers beat reporters this off-season that he thought there were opportunities to upgrade via trade gives me hope that something will come together to give the roster an additional boost.

It’s a little tough to see with these green and gold tinted glasses on, but I think it says Packers win, 23-16.

It was 5 years ago today that the Brewers officially traded away Yovani Gallardo for a package that included Corey Knebel in return (also Marcos Diplan and Luis Sardinas). I’ll never forget that one because word of the trade leaked the day prior during (or just before) the Packers NFC Championship Game versus the Seahawks. Maybe another Brewers related trade comes out today in order to make it an NFC Championship Sunday tradition? ...and hopefully a better result/ending to the NFC Championship Game this time.

It appears that Dan Plesac is going to be working in some manner for the Cubs new Regional Sports Network, the Marquee Sports Network. Not sure if he will also continue working in some capacity on MLB Network? Either way I don’t think he’ll be filling in as spot duty for Rock anytime soon. Looks like he was also scheduled to make an appearance at the Cubs Convention today.

I go back and forth between similar thoughts to both of these (and think both could be true). Multiple times this off-season David Stearns has made reference to having good discussions about trade options, last month mentioning they had trade discussions regarding the corner infield spots, and more recently indicating that trades were the most likely the way the Brewers would further upgrade the roster this off-season. As others have pointed out, when he made the comment about trades being the most likely scenario for upgrading the roster for the remainder of the off-season he had to have already been aware they were on the verge of two more free agent signings (Morrison and Gyorko). Until we reach Spring Training I am going to continue to believe they are working on meaningful roster upgrade(s) via trade. It’s hard to really assess the off-season moves when we have such an incomplete picture of how things have transpired behind the scenes, but I do believe they realize they are in the zone where every bit of improvement to the roster now is significant towards their status as playoff contenders.

The Reds ZiPS projections came out today. By comparison the Reds 2020 projections broke down as follows... Position Player ZiPS projected WAR: 17.8 Starting Pitcher ZiPS projected WAR: 14.2 Bullpen ZiPS projected WAR: 3.6 So right now that total of 35.6 projected WAR ranks 2.5 wins behind the Brewers 2020 projection.

Before he was fired yesterday there was talk from Jeff Luhnow that the Astros might try to develop Toro as a catcher in the near future. Apparently he served as the team’s emergency catcher at the end of last season. I do think Toro would be an interesting target if the Astros were willing to deal him. Of course, I am not exactly sure who you would call to work out a trade with the Astros right now.

To get Gerrit Cole, the Astros traded: Colin Moran - 1st round pick Joe Musgrove - 1st round pick plus others To get Justin Verlander, the Astros traded: Daz Cameron - 1st round pick plus others To get Zack Greinke, the Astros traded: Seth Beer - 1st round pick J.B. Bukauskas - 1st round pick Corbin Martin - 2nd round pick plus others Draft picks don't have to see the field to be valuable. I won't mention all the 1st rounders they have starting in the field (4) since the picks they are losing won't be as high in the order as those guys. So to say they can "buy" players is odd given they have signed exactly zero big ticket free agents in this current window (unless you are counting Gurriel and Reddick) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-they-were-acquired-the-houston-astros-alds-roster/ In addition to the actual draft picks, it will reduce their overall bonus pool allotment each season significantly. For example in 2020 it takes away more than $3.5 million from their bonus pool. The Astros have a track record as a team that sometimes signs their 1st and 2nd round picks under slot in order to have money to leverage other players into being pushed down the draft board as later selections that sign for over slot. This loss in bonus pool money makes that strategy unpractical.

Below are last year’s top 10 starting pitchers in four-seam fastball swinging strike rate. Not only did Woodruff rank 7th overall in MLB, he was the youngest pitcher on the list.

The Brewers ZiPS projections have been released, the full Fangraphs article is linked below. 2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers They are the first team in the NL Central to have their player projections released. Last year the Brewers ZiPS projections going into the season broke down as follows: 2019 Brewers ZiPS (41.8 projected WAR) Starters 11.4 Bullpen 5.8 Position Players 24.6 This year's projected ZiPS total is lower by 3.7 WAR: 2020 Brewers ZiPS (38.1 projected WAR) Starters 10.4 Bullpen 6.3 Position Players 21.4

My guess is in most cases they are evaluating production by position rather than specific player. I think they are attempting to construct a “no scrubs” roster in order to get average or better production from every single position grouping. I believe their strategy is that spreading out the production across an entire roster where every position is likely offering positive value is better than having significant value from 2-3 positions and below average value from others. As was also brought up, the flexibility to not be tied down to a specific starter at several positions allows for an easier transition during the season if an upgrade is needed. Giving Travis Shaw, Orlando Arcia, and Hernan Perez nearly 1,100 combined plate appearances last year was a production torpedo that is difficult to overcome even with star players in the same lineup. This is an old example, but sort of gets the point across of what the Brewers need to try to avoid. Two months into the 2013 season the Brewers had two of the top 10 hitters in baseball and arguably the best producing 1-5 of any order in the league, but sat at 19-31 and in last place in the NL Central in part because the bottom half of their lineup was doing this (right side of graph): I think the Brewers believe a roster where they improve the baseline of every position to at least average will set them up for success at a better value. This year there are very few players they would be “stuck” with keeping in the lineup if they are clearly underperforming early in the season. I can see how this strategy could work out well for them, but the fan in me would also certainly still love to see a Grandal caliber hitter inserted somewhere in the middle of the lineup.

My guess is in most cases they are evaluating production by position rather than specific player. I think they are attempting to construct a “no scrubs” roster in order to get average or better production from every single position grouping. I believe their strategy is that spreading out the production across an entire roster where every position is likely offering positive value is better than having significant value from 2-3 positions and below average value from others. As was also brought up, the flexibility to not be tied down to a specific starter at several positions allows for an easier transition during the season if an upgrade is needed. Giving Travis Shaw, Orlando Arcia, and Hernan Perez nearly 1,100 combined plate appearances last year was a production torpedo that is difficult to overcome even with star players in the same lineup. This is an old example, but sort of gets the point across of what the Brewers need to try to avoid. Two months into the 2013 season the Brewers had two of the top 10 hitters in baseball and arguably the best producing 1-5 of any order in the league, but sat at 19-31 and in last place in the NL Central in part because the bottom half of their lineup was doing this (right side of graph): I think the Brewers believe a roster where they improve the baseline of every position to at least average will set them up for success at a better value. This year there are very few players they would be “stuck” with keeping in the lineup if they are clearly underperforming early in the season. I can see how this strategy could work out well for them, but the fan in me would also certainly still love to see a Grandal caliber hitter inserted somewhere in the middle of the lineup.

This is where I’m at as well. It’s interesting that they are rostering a bunch of bounce back options, and I’m sure a couple of them will have average or better seasons. That’s fine in plenty of circumstances, but for a team I want to see win a championship it just seems like they are simply narrowing their range of possible outcomes. I’d be more into the Gyorko signing if I thought it was a depth move on a team I was confident already had the core of a 90-win team. In this case it seems like they are merely solidifying the floor of a roster that appears destined to project in the typically least desirable position to finish in baseball, a slightly above .500 team. Obviously there is more off-season, and obviously this could all change as the season plays out (and the front office could even turnout looking like complete geniuses). That being said, as we sit here on January 10th I’m not as enthusiastic about the upcoming season as I had hoped I would be once the 40-man roster was filled. When you project to be a mid-80s win team, improving by 4-5 extra wins is more valuable than in any other scenario. Instead of doing that it seems like the off-season thus far has done more to replace lost production than improving significantly in any specific way. Again, more could certainly be on the way, but if nothing else substantial comes to fruition I’ll have to squirt with my Navy tinted glasses on to visualize an avenue where this team achieves a 95+ win outcome.

This is where I’m at as well. It’s interesting that they are rostering a bunch of bounce back options, and I’m sure a couple of them will have average or better seasons. That’s fine in plenty of circumstances, but for a team I want to see win a championship it just seems like they are simply narrowing their range of possible outcomes. I’d be more into the Gyorko signing if I thought it was a depth move on a team I was confident already had the core of a 90-win team. In this case it seems like they are merely solidifying the floor of a roster that appears destined to project in the typically least desirable position to finish in baseball, a slightly above .500 team. Obviously there is more off-season, and obviously this could all change as the season plays out (and the front office could even turnout looking like complete geniuses). That being said, as we sit here on January 10th I’m not as enthusiastic about the upcoming season as I had hoped I would be once the 40-man roster was filled. When you project to be a mid-80s win team, improving by 4-5 extra wins is more valuable than in any other scenario. Instead of doing that it seems like the off-season thus far has done more to replace lost production than improving significantly in any specific way. Again, more could certainly be on the way, but if nothing else substantial comes to fruition I’ll have to squirt with my Navy tinted glasses on to visualize an avenue where this team achieves a 95+ win outcome.

Wednesday (via Haudricourt): I asked Stearns with the FA market picked over if it's more likely that a trade would be made to make further impact on roster: "I think that's a fair assessment." Thursday: Brewers sign free agent Logan Morrison. Friday: Brewers sign free agent Jedd Gyorko.

I just realized Clay Davenport’s Projection System has Luis Urias listed as the Brewers second most valuable position player with a projected 3.5 WAR this season and it projects him for a 138 games played at SS. If he approaches that sort of production it would exceed my wildest expectations, and make for a fun organizational turnaround at the SS position. The last update on his model was the end of December, so overall plenty is still subject to change.

This seems like a very weak return for the Rays who gave up one of the top 50 prospects in baseball. Obviously they know their own players better than anyone, but it’s not hard to imagine them regretting this trade down the road.

From Passan... The St. Louis Cardinals are trading OF Jose Martinez, OF Randy Arozarena and a Compensation A pick (after 1st round) to the Tampa Bay Rays for LHP prospect Matt Liberatore, a low-level catching prospect and Compensation B pick (post-2nd), sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.

Kudos to Uwbadgers442 who told us the Brewers wanted to sign Smoak and Morrison way back on November 28th. Here are the posts: Link #1 and Link #2. I doubted the report at the time, and it turns out I was very much wrong.

I had written off Hunter Dozier as a 3B trade target earlier in the off-season due to the perception of him possessing below average defensive capabilities. He played 100 games at 3B for the Royals last season, but will likely shift to the corner outfield now that they signed Maikel Franco to play 3B. Then today Statcast releases their new defensive metric, Outs Above Average, and it lists Hunter Dozier as a completely average defensive 3B (an OAA rating of 0). If Dozier is indeed capable of playing a competent defensive 3B as well as occasionally filling in at the corner outfield spots then he would be an excellent trade target for the Brewers, in my opinion.

Updating this old thread because Baseball America released an article titled, Ranking Every MLB Team's Draft Performance In The 2010s There is a summary explanation paragraph for each team with some really interesting facts within the article, but below are strictly the rankings, WAR, and top players for each team. Obviously some of these rankings will continue to change as players drafted in the second half of the decade accrue WAR at the major league level in the coming years. 1. Astros WAR: 103.8 Top picks: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman 2. White Sox WAR: 101 Top picks: Chris Sale, Marcus Semien, Tim Anderson 3. Marlins WAR: 96. Top picks: Christian Yelich, Jose Fernandez, J.T. Realmuto 4. Blue Jays WAR: 95.1 Top picks: Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar 5. Mets WAR: 93.9 Top picks: Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto 6. Cardinals WAR: 91.6 Top picks: Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, Kolten Wong 7. Athletics WAR: 91.4 Top picks: Sonny Gray, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson 8. Orioles WAR: 86.7 Top picks: Manny Machado, Kevin Gausman, Josh Hader 9. Red Sox WAR: 80.9 Top picks: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. 10. Nationals WAR: 79.9 Top picks: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Robbie Ray 11. Braves WAR: 78.7 Top picks: Andrelton Simmons, Alex Wood, Mike Soroka 12. Indians WAR: 74.4 Top picks: Francisco Lindor, Shane Bieber, Cody Allen 13. Rockies WAR: 68.8 Top picks: Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland 14. Dodgers WAR: 65.3 Top picks: Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Corey Seager 15. Mariners WAR: 64.1 Top picks: James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, Chris Taylor 16. Pirates WAR: 58.6 Top picks: Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell 17. D-backs WAR: 58.5 Top picks: Trevor Bauer, Adam Eaton, Jake Lamb 18. Cubs WAR: 56.5 Top picks: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber 19. Rays WAR: 52.5 Top picks: Blake Snell, Kevin Kiermaier, Derek Dietrich 20. Padres WAR: 49.1 Top picks: Trea Turner, Hunter Renfroe, Max Fried 21. Tigers WAR: 44.0 Top picks: Nicholas Castellanos, Drew Smyly, Chad Green 22. Angels WAR: 41.7 Top picks: Mike Clevinger, Kole Calhoun, C.J. Cron 23. Twins WAR: 40 Top picks: Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios 24. Rangers WAR: 38.1 Top picks: Joey Gallo, Kyle Hendricks, Alex Claudio 25. Giants WAR: 34.9 Top picks: Joe Panik, Matt Duffy, Adam Duvall 26. Phillies WAR: 33.9 Top picks: Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Ken Giles 27. Royals WAR: 32.6 Top picks: Whit Merrifield, Sean Manaea, Hunter Dozier 28. Yankees WAR: 30.6 Top picks: Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, Tommy Kahnle 29. Brewers WAR: 26.1 Top picks: Mitch Haniger, Keston Hiura, Brandon Woodruff 30. Reds WAR: 25.4 Top picks: Yasmani Grandal, Michael Lorenzen, Nick Senzel

Great stuff, Reilly! It’s also worth pointing out that while Nelson Cruz appears to be one of the recent exception in terms of maintaining a high WAR late into his 30’s, even that has been done in conjunction with playing only 54.1 innings combined in the field over the past three seasons (and he didn’t play a single inning in the field last season). He hasn’t started more than half a season’s worth of games (>81) in the field since 2013 (age 32).

I thought there was a chance the switch hitting Cabrera might be on the Brewers radar this off-season. From MLB Trade Rumors... Nationals To Re-Sign Asdrubal Cabrera The Nationals are in agreement on a contract with free agent infielder Asdrúbal Cabrera, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Robert Murray first reported the sides were nearing a deal (via Twitter). Cabrera will be guaranteed $2.5MM, Heyman adds, with an additional $500K available in incentives (via Twitter). Cabrera, 34, latched on with the Nats in August. He was fantastic for the eventual World Series champs down the stretch, putting up a .323/.404/.565 line (145 wRC+) over 146 plate appearances. Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story of Cabrera’s season. He compiled a meager .235/.318/.393 line in Texas. The Rangers released him the first week of August, presumably after finding nothing to their liking before the July 31 trade deadline. Cabrera’s .260/.342/.441 cumulative performance was almost exactly average. Coupled with still-solid defensive metrics at second and third, Cabrera was worth just under two wins above replacement (1.7 bWAR, 1.9 fWAR) in 131 games. If he can replicate that production in 2020, he’d be a bargain, even if he maxes out his incentives and collects the possible $3MM. The signing is perhaps more interesting from a broader market perspective. Cabrera and Starlin Castro, who agreed to a two-year deal with Washington yesterday, are both solid players who figure to contribute on a more-or-less everyday basis. Yet they’re not the marquee players some Nats’ fans may have been hoping for once Anthony Rendon left. Washington looks to be one of the finalists for Josh Donaldson. The top free agent still on the market, Donaldson is reportedly sitting on multiple four-year offers, waiting for someone to match his asking price. Neither Castro nor Cabrera would seem to prevent the Nats from adding Donaldson from a financial perspective. And Washington could certainly push one or both into complimentary roles off the bench to fit a player of Donaldson’s caliber on the roster. Indeed, Jim Bowden of the Athletic hears that the Nats still aren’t necessarily out on Donaldson.

The amount of cash they would likely get would likely make it not worth it and you'd be better off taking a chance at the lottery ticket. He’s a little older (just turned 26), but Wisconsin native Elliot Ashbeck is an interesting reliever that isn’t currently on the Padres 40-man roster.

Sort of funny, Kyle Seager and Nolan Arrenado have the exact same away OPS for their careers. A career .799 OPS on the road for each.