Eye Black

Hot Take Alert: In 5 years I think we will look back at losing Isan Diaz as more cringe worthy than Monte Harrison. That being said, I have no problem giving up good value to get good value. FIVE years of a very good baseball player in his prime is worth this prospect package.

We acquired a player that has one of the top 30 highest trade values in baseball due to contract and control. It has been a while since Milwaukee has had an asset this valuable. If Stearns wanted he could turn around and trade him tomorrow for comparable value to what he just gave up. Yelich is a very good baseball player under control for his age 26-30 seasons, and I will be shocked if he isn't a star in Milwaukee.

I hope so, that would be a vintage Astros move.

Isnt WRC+ factored for park variation? Yes, but their point was that Marlins Park suppresses left handed power.

I think he is going to be an All-Star at Miller Park. Posted this in the other thread, but Fangraphs pointed out he is in the 94th percentile of all players in WRC+ away from Marlins Park.

Wow.... Wow.

.242/.326/.442/.768 is his second half numbers and they probably dip a little more if you just go by his last 50 games. What isn't mention is his kid almost dying, and a pretty good head injury to begin August (which is where the dip in his numbers really are). Some will say excuses, others will realize what this can do to your stat line. I don't know what specific effects the traumatic family issues played (nor do I wish to speculate), but he hit at a very high level throughout the height of the timeline during which it took place. Through his first 400 at bats he slugged .571 and had an OPS of .937. Over his last 200 at-bats (yes, a small sample) he slugged .398 and had a .713 OPS. Obviously we all hope/expect that reality is closer to the first 2/3rds of his season, but for a player that has been susceptible to prolonged cold streaks in the past it is at least something to keep in mind.

It depends how you define regression. Shaw played in 144 games last season, the last 50 of which weren't very good. I do think we would be better off focusing our discussion here on the Brewers roster construction rather than pontificating about the Cubs demise. I think (hope) we all realize the Cubs are likely a 90+ win team for the next few years with plenty of room for error.

The article also provides a good reminder that Arcia is three months younger than Lewis Brinson.

Most prospects have one agenda far and away above all else, to simply get on a major league field both to realize their dream and to start earning big league paychecks. Worrying about being on a winning team becomes a bigger factor once these young players get settled in and prove themselves after a few years. I agree, but also Brinson grew up in South Florida as a Marlins fan. The kid's favorite player growing up was Juan Pierre (from his Marlins years in 2003-05). I don't think he would be nearly as heartbroken as we might think. He would become an every day major leaguer in centerfield for the team he grew up rooting for.

If it is true the Brewers were the first substantial offer I don't blame the Marlins for taking a day or two to tell other teams, "If you can't top this offer you aren't getting Yelich". They are doing their due diligence, which they absolutely should be. I also think it is okay for the Brewers to say, "hey, we are moving on if you don't get back to us with an acceptance within 48 hours". I think Yelich would be really good for the Brewers over the next 5 years. If they don't land him, I will remain confident that Stearns and staff will explore ways to make this team better every single day. The Brewers currently have assets and options. IMO the Brewers are in the best spot they have ever been in as far as baseball operations leadership, at least during my fandom.

Brewers press release on Trevor Hoffman's Baseball Hall of Fame election: Hoffman will be just the 6th former Brewers player to enter the Baseball Hall of Fame (full list below). [pre]Player w/ Brewers Elected Hank Aaron 1975-1976 1982 Rollie Fingers 1981-1985 1992 Don Sutton 1982-1984 1998 Robin Yount* 1974-1993 1999 Paul Molitor* 1978-1992 2004 Trevor Hoffman 2009-2010 2018[/pre] * Played more games with Milwaukee than any other team

Well he has much greater present trade value than two of those three players.

The Marlins should absolutely be doing everything they can to maximize the quality and quantity of prospect talent they get back, so from their side of the coin it is no surprise that they would check in on every possible potential offer whether it is be multiple players paired together, or stand alone deals. The only real mistake they could make at this point in their sell-off is getting less value back by pairing one of their star players with a player carrying an undesirable contract, and at this point they have absolutely no reason or motivation to do that. From the Brewers side of things, I am not worried at all. Stearns and company stick to their valuations of players. They aren't going to get caught up in the pursuit for a player and go beyond their comfort level. This is also where having multiple contingencies comes in. They have leverage based on the fact they haven't tied their entire off-season to one set of possibilities. They seem prepared to do whatever is in the best interest of their own ball club completely independent of outside environmental pressures.

I wouldn't get too hung up on the Northsiders commentary. It appears one of the things that struck their fancy was something I said somewhat in jest with about two seconds of thought put into it about cooling off their Bryce Harper crush. The truth is the Cubs are a very good team for the foreseeable future, and both Yu Darvish and Bryce Harper are very good players. If they think investing a combined $70 million dollars annually in Darvish and Harper for the next half decade for a team that is within striking distance of the luxury tax threshold is a good idea, then I say by all means go for it.

Correct me if im wrong, but can it be Hiura? Hasnt been a year since the draft PTBNL Those are the old rules which were eliminated with the new CBA. Once the 2017 season ended, all 2017 draft picks were eligible to be traded at free will.

A few random thoughts for the group... - Let’s say I told you these two things were certainties: (1) the Brewers will acquire Yelich, and (2) the Brewers will appear in the 2021 World Series. Which players currently in the organization (not the just current MLB roster) could you guarantee (or at least confidently surmise) would be a part of the champagne popping celebration after clinching the 2021 NL Pennant? For me the answer would probably be: Yelich, Arcia, and maybe Hader. Those are the only players I would be truly surprised to see moved as the Brewers FO builds a championship roster. I think there are a lot of pieces left between now and our WS roster, but five years of cost control for Christian Yelich is a good start. I trust the current front office to get good value in trades more often than not. They aren’t going to win them all because predicting the future is hard (some would say impossible), but if they continue to make calculated moves they will improve incrementally with many of their trades. - You can’t base any players value off a singular statistic, trend, or theory, but I did find this sentence from a Fangraphs Article at least encouraging for those that believe Yelich could be a Miller Park hitting savant... “Since Yelich debuted, he’s ranked in the 64th percentile in terms of wRC+ at home, but he’s ranked in the 94th percentile in terms of wRC+ on the road. Marlins Park doesn’t make it easy for lefties, and Yelich’s extra-base power has already been suppressed.” - One staple of Astros trades even after they turned the proverbial corner was getting a Rookie ball lottery ticket thrown into the deal along with acquiring a good-to-star caliber player. It will be interesting to me to see if the Brewers front office take this approach with any of their impending trades. - The current front office has proven to me they can build a farm system that isn’t just based off getting top ten picks. Heck, for the most part the top ten draft selections aren’t even near the most valuable prospects in the system. I have no doubt that if the team is struggling in future years the current front office knows how to turn current assets on expiring contracts into future assets. The depth of the farm system is important because now there is a foundation built and I can’t envision any point in the near future having the prospect shelves bare like they were 5-6 years ago.

I mentioned this in the other thread, but I think the Marlins may view Brinson with a different lens than other teams. He grew up in the area, rooted for the Marlins as a kid, it might actually give them a little hope for some positive spin on what has otherwise has been a difficult off-season for their fans. I am not saying those are reasons to make a trade, or even that their fans will like it initially, but I could see Brinson’s value being just a touch higher for them.

I figured you’ve already searched far and wide. Will let you know if I come across anything closer. I can see why you would assume the Cubs connection, the “C” is very similar.

Got it, thanks for the clarification!

Insider "rumor" has it that Marlins are requesting final offers from other teams in regards to Yelich. As in other teams “not including the Brewers”, or other teams “including the Brewers”?

Yes it is, well maybe with two minor modifications.

I have some bad news for you...

I do have a New Era team issued college baseball hat that is from the late 80’s or very early 90’s. Not what you are looking for, but the logo has some similarities to the ones used by Mission City Baseball (shown below) and Michigan Center High School (LINK). http://mediaprocessor.websimages.com/width/168/crop/0,0,168x153/www.missioncitybaseball.com/FullSizeRender-2.jpg My guess is it is a college that starts with an M, as in M_____ College. Either way, this is a fun needle in a haystack search. I hope someone cracks the case. As I come across them I will list any colleges that use an MC on their baseball hats with a link below: Midland College (LINK) - wrong color scheme

I hope the contract’s big enough to hinder them in the long run. Let’s play one final version of predict the contract length and dollars. I am going to guess 5 years and $135 million. I would have been ecstatic if the Brewers had signed Darvish, but hopefully this at least cools off the Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to the Cubs in 2019 speculation.