Eye Black

If Darvish’s market fell anywhere near those numbers (which I can’t see happening), then I would be surprised if the Brewers weren’t involved. While Stearns downplayed going after a large contract starting pitcher, he also said: “We’re always looking to get better. We remain interested if the right opportunities are presented to us." Getting Darvish for below $20 million AAV for less than 5 years would seem to be a steal. Darvish is the one starting pitcher I would be ecstatic to see the Brewers break the bank for. I am weary of both Arrieta and Lynn, especially on 4-5 year deals. Darvish on the other hand seems like best bet to perform at a high level for the next several years. While I don’t think those numbers cited are going to come to fruition, even if the market came down towards something like 5 years at $120 million I would hope the Brewers joined the mix of potential suitors. Another thing to consider I suppose, it seems the Brewers are currently planning with the long view in mind rather than viewing themselves at the doorstep of a short competitive window. Because of the volatility involved with projecting pitchers as they age, maybe elite starting pitching should be the last thing the Brewers look to add? If they pass on adding a SP on this year’s FA or trade market it may increase their chances of adding the best possible fit when the position players are more solidified and nearing their peak. I know that isn’t necessarily what we all want to consider coming off an 86 win season, but this upcoming year’s collection of position players is not likely to be as strong offensively as what we hope for by the early 2020’s. Also, while the number of competitive teams in the NL is low this year, the top NL teams still project to be very good.

Looking at it from the Pirates end, it does seem to be more along the lines of quantity than quality. It seems unlikely any of these players has future All Star upside. I guess they did get players they can stick on their major league roster immediately. I would be very curious to know what other offers might have been out there.

Another random thought, it takes the Astros out of the running for Darvish and likely eliminates them as a potential suitor in the rest of the free agent starting pitching market. Hopefully it helps get things closer towards some FA movement.

Game on! Gerrit Cole traded to the Astros for RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Michael Feliz, 3B Colin Moran, OF Jason Martin. MLB Trade Rumors Article Link.

Agree, most projections I had seen were for three years in that range near $30 million. I think this is the first really surprisingly lower commitment than expected contract. I wonder if the reported desire to play in the Midwest ultimately limited his market value. Regardless, really nice pickup for the Twins. One comparison I find mildly interesting in retrospect is Addison Reed and Tyler Thornburg. Both were 3rd round draft picks in 2010 (actually consecutive selections, picks #95 & #96 overall) and they are only 79 days apart in age. Reed’s service time clock started two years earlier than Thornburg’s. Both had phenomenal 2016 seasons (Reed for 2.9 bWAR and Thornburg 2.5 bWAR). Thornburg was traded with 3 years of control remaining and obviously netted Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington, Travis Shaw, and Yeison Coca in the 2017 off-season (yes, this package looks better today than it did a year ago). One year later Reed who has a longer track record of success than Thornburg gets a modest (by current FA bullpen standards) two year contract. Reed has also been traded three times himself which I guess is a little strange for a player seemingly as talented as he is, but none of those trades has turned out looking great for the team that dealt him thus far. I don’t really have some great point here, but find the fluctuation in value between those two players something curious.

Thanks for updating! According to Jon Heyman, Hernan Perez and the Brewers agreed at “$1.975M plus awards”

You guys talked me into adding a second signing to my prediction, it make sense a lot of sense. I just think he is going to end up with a 3rd year and a higher total cost... Free Agent: Neil Walker Years: 3 Cost: $31.5 million

Very cool, thanks for posting this with such great detail!

In Rosenthal’s most recent article via The Athletic he reiterates that according to his sources the Brewers are maintaining their interest in Lorenzo Cain (but also notes they are exploring several trade and FA options). Rosenthal then shifts gears into what would be best categorized as pure speculation. He speculates that Brett Phillips could be involved in a trade to bring back either pitching or a 2B. He throws out the idea that when facing LHP the Brewers could have an outfield of Cain in LF, Brinson eventually in CF, with Domingo Santana in RF. In this scenario he says Braun could move to 1B, but admits Braun playing on the infield corner might be “too outside the box”.

Sounds like the Brewers may still have some interest in at least one remaining bullpen option (h/t to Mass Haas for digging this one up on Twitter):

In what has been a painfully slow off-season things appear to be picking up in terms of rumors connecting the Brewers to various Free Agents. While we wait for the Free Agent fun to begin lets place our bets on who the Brewers will sign at some point between now and Opening Day. This one is straightforward, looking for predictions of a player you think the Brewers will sign and your predicted terms of the agreement for that player. This isn’t who you WANT the Brewers to sign (we have a thread for that), but rather who you think they WILL ultimately sign this off-season. If you don’t believe they will sign any additional Free Agents you can certainly note that as well. This doesn’t just have to be big splash Free Agents either, but hoping we can keep it to guys that would likely sign major league free agent deals. I will kick it off with my Brewers Free Agent prediction... Free Agent: Alex Cobb, RHP Years: 4 Total Cost: $58 million

Yes, Post #114 has the article link for the original report and the relevant text copy and pasted.

I think this analysis is basically due to the fact that we're Brewers fans and watch them every day and tend to get angry at our own signings when they aren't so good. I am guilty here of two things, I didn't really expound on what I meant, and I was certainly overstating it. There are plenty of teams that have had much, much worse free agent signings than the Brewers. Maybe this is more a byproduct of the lack of total number of free agent they have signed, but the Brewers don't seem to have many cases of "good" free agent signings. There are certainly cases like Mike Cameron and Aramis Ramirez that turned out mostly positive, but it seems like other teams have had more success with signing free agents that provided value. Recently it seems like they have actually had more success in non-traditional free agent channels with players like Nori Aoki and Eric Thames. You are correct though, being a fan that closely follows one team, and merely a causal observer of all others, makes it difficult to make an accurate assertion without any actual analysis.

I was more joking on Nolan Ryan, although he was quite good in his 40's. I am typically not a fan of free agent starting pitchers that will require a long term commitment. I am not in favor of signing Arrieta by any means, but also not vehemently opposed to it. I agree with those that said we are a little jaded, the Brewers might have the single worst track record with free agents of any team in baseball. Relying on free agents that require big financial commitments is generally bad business, but in many cases has been used effectively to supplement a good team and make them better. It seems one of the bigger problems with a long term financial commitment that goes sour is when a team feels trapped by it and basically doubles down by continuing to roll with that player due to obligation. Having a front office that is willing to identify/admit a mistake and execute an exit strategy is important. Obviously easier said than done for a small market team.

The first name that came to mind was Nolan Ryan, but I guess he was actually in his early 40's when he started his 5 year stretch with the Rangers, so never mind.

A Jake Arrieta update via this Chicago Sun-Times Article...

Not one of the more well established prospect sites, but hey it’s a ranking and brief write-ups on 50 Brewers prospects during a slow off-season: Prospects1500.com’s Milwaukee Brewers 2018 Top 50 Prospects

I can see it now: McCutchen to Cleveland for Salazar & Chisenhall... Isn't that the exact "poetic justice" you were hoping for on another forum?

Rosenthal reporting that he also confirmed the deal is close. I know moving Cole was likely, but it seems like it also signals that the Pirates are ready to take a step back from trying to compete in the near term. I would guess that McCutchen will be moved soon as well.

Link: Jon Morosi is reporting a Gerrit Cole trade to the Astros is imminent. EDIT: Updated the subject because Morosi is reporting the Astros and Pirates have reached an agreement. EDIT #2: Updated the subject again because now it is being reported by Jeff Passan, Jerry Crasnick, and the Astros beat reports as not done, and maybe not even close.

For those who enjoy reading the electronic pages of Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has announced he is leaving to pursue an opportunity with the San Diego Padres in what will be his final post on the site, The One I Never Thought I Would Write. Dave was Fangraphs first full-time staff member, and had a great ability to disseminate complex baseball analysis in a very relatable and easy to consume manner. I wish him the best, but am bummed he is going to be moving behind the proverbial curtain.

And here is basically the same list of MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects, only broken down by division which is kind of cool to see.

MLB Pipeline staff confirmed the Brewers are tied for the most top 100 prospects with 7 total. Here is the total number of MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects for every team...

I would prefer to swap out one of those additional pieces with RHP Shane Bieber in that scenario. Bieber appears to have impeccable command with some added velocity and improving secondary pitches. Seems like a guy that could develop into a solid mid-rotation starter.

This is spot on. JosephC did a great job earlier in the thread dissecting the value involved in this possible trade involving Santana and Salazar. I agree Santana is more valuable than Salazar due to the extra year of control and having lower injury risk than Salazar, but it’s not enough to justify the Indians including a top 25 MLB prospect for 2-3 additional pieces that have very little trade value. Matching up these teams on a realistic trade that includes the Brewers acquiring both Salazar and Mejia is nearly impossible.