Eye Black

Tigers/Braves and Orioles/Dbacks are also exactly the same figures. Must be some sort of major guesstimations going on, there's no way those figures are real with that many teams being tied down to the penny. Here is the Forbes MLB Team Values and Revenue Listings that it appears was used. The Team Revenues are listed in the second column in from the right.

I do not know if revenue sharing is factored in, but those numbers came from Forbes so someone with a better idea of how they compile their information may know. The same individual also did a chart that swapped out the beginning of the year payroll with 2017 year end payrolls (since teams obviously add salary during the year, i.e. Neil Walker, Anthony Swarzak, etc.). Here is the link to the chart with end of season payrolls factored in: LINK to chart using year end payroll

Maybe Attanasio has decided he wants to boost payroll higher than traditional levels if the right scenario presented itself? The guy is probably swimming in money at this point in his life. Who knows what's going on behind closed doors. I found the below chart interesting when trying to understand the financials of each team. This is straight payroll and revenue, so keep in mind there are a lot of operational expenses not accounted for that also eat away at the revenue. Such things include capital projects, facility maintenance, staff salaries, amateur players signing bonuses, ventures such as buying a minor league team or building/renovating a Spring Training complex, and I am sure plenty more expenses and costs that all need to be budgeted for within the revenue numbers. According to this Tweet the chart uses Cot's 2017 payroll matched with Forbes 2016 revenue data. This data may be fairly accurate or it could be wildly inaccurate, I will let you decide for yourself. The order of the teams is what percentage of revenue each reportedly spent on payroll.

From Ken Rosenthal this morning...

The Brewers signed infielder Shane Opitz to a minor league contract per the Brewers Player Development Twitter account.

I think I have a good rule of thumb for answering the question, “what would it take to acquire Chris Archer?” Click the spoilers after you have decided your answer to each step. Step #1: Pick your two favorite Brewers prospects. Step #2: Now pick your next three favorite Brewers prospects (your #3, #4, and #5 overall). Step #3: Pick your #6 overall favorite Brewers prospect. Step #4: Pick one Brewers prospect not typically ranked in the top Brewers top ten, but that you really like.

Yes, he undoubtedly has more value today than he did as an A-ball player on July 30th, 2016. I don’t think anyone is disputing that (at least I am certainly not). That still doesn’t make him untouchable as a potential trade piece. If the Indians believe his trade value (whether with the Brewers or anyone else) is high enough that they can parlay it into adding pieces that fit their organization better they would be silly not to explore those things. I do think there are currently a handful of prospects across baseball that are virtually untouchable in trades, but I do not think Mejia classifies in that category. That doesn’t mean I think the Indians would accept anything less than a very high return in order to move him. Even with as good as Mejia’s hit tool is there is still risk in his overall profile.

I just don't think the Indians are going to trade Mejia. Since the Lucroy non-deal, he's upped his value to the point where I doubt the prospect of getting Santana and/or Shaw is enough for the Indians to move him. My issue with saying that Salazar is better than Suter/Guerra/etc, is that while it's true (when he's healthy), the Brewers shouldn't be trading a couple of mid-20s .360+ wOBA guys for an upgrade over Suter. You can go out and get Patrick Corbin for that. For Santana and Shaw, I want a pitcher that's an upgrade over Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson. FWIW, it also would seem to run counter to Stearns' MO to package Santana and Shaw. The one part I disagree on is the Indians not being open to trading Francisco Mejia. It would likely cost a lot (something like Santana plus a good Brewers prospect), but I think the Indians would do it for proper valuation. While Mejia’s hitting talent is undeniable, he has some things working against him. He is blocked at catcher for the foreseeable future. He has an elite arm, but is reportedly a below average receiver. He is small for a catcher (likely not even 5’10”). The Indians were obviously willing to trade him at the height of his hitting streak stardom in 2016. His first attempt at playing 3B seemingly failed, and doesn’t seem likely at this point to be an option for him at the major league level. I don’t want this to come across as dismissing Mejia because he is a player I would be very happy for the Brewers to acquire, but much like the situation with Brinson for the Brewers, Mejia could potentially be more valuable to the Indians as a trade chip than as a major leaguer.

I agree that is the max (unless he gets a sixth year), but I think it will be closer to a $27 or $28 million AAV, so 5 years and $135-$140 million range. I do think a player opt out clause after the second year could appeal to him as well.

I am so on board with a Darvish signing! He would be a difference making arm for this team. Even looking at next year’s free agent crop I am not sure there is a starting pitcher I would rather see the Brewers sign (other than obviously Kershaw which isn’t happening).

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/20/pat-neshek-zack-greinke-autograph-rockies-diamondbacks-turd Social anxiety is definitely no laughing matter but things like this rub me the wrong way. Its a peer and you're seemingly douchey for the sake of being douchey here. Back on point, I would prefer keeping that personality out of the already tight knit locker room. I think that makes Neshek look more petty and silly than Greinke, at least in the fact that he went public to complain about it. He says Greinke is the only guy to ever refuse to sign for him, but do you honestly think Greinke is the only guy that has been annoyed by Neshek sending over stacks of baseball cards to the clubhouse? The difference is Zack is brutally honest in instances like that where other guys probably just appease Neshek to get it over with.

I also mentioned this in another thread, but MadThinker is correct. The Effectively Wild podcast from last Saturday confirmed that currently the Brewers Fangraphs projection is based solely on Steamer, and that nothing from ZiPS has been factored in thus far. The two projection systems are weighted 50/50, but ZiPS doesn’t get added until late in the off-season. They said ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than Steamer and the Brewers projection will improve when the ZiPS data is eventually applied. So it would be best to wait and see the final projections before getting too overly excited.

Until he is traded I will include Santana in my projected batting order. With the idea of Braun successfully transitioning to play some 1B here is what my optimal batting orders would look like: vs. RHP Cain – CF Yelich – LF Braun/Santana – RF Thames – 1B Shaw – 3B Vogt – C Villar/Sogard (or Free Agent) – 2B Pitcher Arcia - SS vs. LHP Cain – CF Yelich – LF Braun – 1B Santana – RF Shaw – 3B Pina – C Villar (or Free Agent) – 2B Pitcher Arcia If Pina was in the lineup at 1B versus LHP I would swap him to the #4 spot and Santana up to the #3 spot.

1) Darvish 2) Greinke —————- 3) Arrieta I would gladly bet on Greinke to remain more productive over the next 4 years over Arrieta. I think Greinke has a chance to be a Kevin Brown type pitcher that ages really, really well. I won’t be surprised if Arrieta is a below average starter at some point in the next two years, it seems like he might not be that far from the cliff. Another thing, if the Brewers did make the playoffs, Greinke may leap ahead of Darvish in terms of who I would want on the mound for a must win playoff game.

The Darvish drama continues, just within the past hour there have been two conflicting reports... Andy McCullough of the LA Times reports that Darvish is waiting for the Dodgers to shed money: T.R. Sullivan (Rangers beat reporter) of MLB.com saying all signs are pointing to Darvish wanting to return to Texas:

I think another impact is that some team’s scouts and staff are more open when discussing their prospects than other organizations. The Texas Rangers (especially when A.J. Preller was there) always stood out as an organization that was good at promoting their prospects through various mediums that would publically share and grow the hype. I can see this being an intentional strategy in terms of building asset value. Another thing to remember is some organization aren’t always honest with these public prospect evaluators as they may not want other teams to know how they truly internally value their players. An example for you, this weekend at (White) Sox Fest, White Sox Scouting Director Nick Hostetler was paraphrased in this Tweet: I am guessing he wasn’t planning on that info being shared on social media, but basically an admission that teams aren’t always genuine in the information they are willing to share regarding their internal evaluations of their own prospects. Not shocking of course, but a worthwhile enough reason to take the rankings with a grain of salt.

Going off of MLB Roster Resource these are the AL teams looking for either OF help or a DH (in addition to the Indians)... Tigers White Sox (do have some prospects as options for the OF) Rangers (need a CF more than corner OF) Blue Jays (they did just acquire both Granderson and Grichuk however) Red Sox (Need a DH) Astros

Do you think this team currently has enough starting pitching even if they sign a FA pitcher? Enough starting pitching with a FA signing? I don’t know, maybe. Enough high-end starting pitching? No, they do not. I am not opposed to trading Santana, but I have a sense he is not going to bring back the value he should at this point due to questions about his defense and K%. I don’t want turn this into a debate over the virtues of the fWAR statistic, but it can at least be used as a helpful measure to compare player value. As referenced above Domingo put up a 3.3 fWAR season at age 24 last year, and that was with his bad defense and strikeouts factored in. That was tied for the 83rd most valuable player in Major League Baseball last season. I believe in the ability of 24 year old players to improve, sometimes quite significantly. George Springer had a 33% strike out rate in his age 24 season (345 plate appearances), a 24% strikeout rate at age 25 and 26, and now under 18% at age 27. I am not predicting he will become George Springer, but I also wouldn’t put him continuing to improve and develop into a 4+ win player out of the realm of possibilities. So what I guess I am saying, do we want to give up a player with a high ceiling for one that could certainly be a good pitcher, but who has had on-going arm, shoulder, and elbow concerns over multiple years? It seems too risky for me.

I am starting to do a 180 degree turn on the idea of trading Santana. This isn’t anything earth breaking, but are we crazy to be so willing to trade a player who just put up a 3.3 fWAR in his age 24 season for oft-injured Danny Salazar? I think at the very least it is a significant gamble. At this point if trading Santana is a given, I would much prefer trying to wrangle ONE of Francisco Mejia or Triston McKenzie from the Indians for Santana (and include a second piece if necessary). Both are impact talents that could become difference makers over the long haul.

I will be pretty surprised at this point if Darvish signs with anyone but the Cubs. It seems possible the delay has been (at least in part) some posturing to try to increase the Cubs offer. I would guess other teams have made competitive offers (including possibly the Brewers), but it isn’t hard to imagine him having a strong preference to play for the Cubs over the other potential suitors outside of LA or New York.

In Ken Rosenthal’s most recent Article at The Athletic he followed up with his sources on the Brewers decision to sign Cain. He brings up that at first glance it is odd that one of the more analytical teams would sign a 32-year old to a 5 year, $80 million contract when they are trying to manage risk. He said that according to sources with knowledge of the club’s thinking they believe he has performed at such a high level that he should provide sufficient production even as he declines. Rosenthal points out that Cains average annual value (per Fangraphs WAR estimates) over the last four seasons has been $35 million (as in worth $35 million annually on average). They also see signs that he is improving at a time of his career when other players typically regress. Rosenthal cites an example being that Cain’s walk rate in 2017 was the highest of his career while his strikeout rate was the lowest he has had.

It wouldn't take a lot for us to dip down to 73 wins. We won 86 but we're going to be without Nelson for an undetermined amount of time and if he gets back during the season it will probably just be to get some innings, not expecting ace like production. That's probably a 3-4 win drop and we're already down to 82 or 83 wins. If Anderson regresses to say a 1.5 WAR pitcher (last year's 3.3 WAR was more than he accumulated in 400+ innings over his career previously) then we could be in for another 2 win drop and we're down to 80 or 81. Knebel could regress, Santana could regress, Shaw could regress, Braun could get hurt and all of those things happening and they aren't as far fetched as some think, then we're probably in the 72-75 win range. Now obviously we could get breakouts from Arcia, Phillips, Brinson etc to push the win total back up but you had a lot of guys that are older doing things they never came close to doing before, so projections are probably going to have them regressing to somewhere between what they had done prior to last year and what they did last year and weighted closer to the lower end because there's more of a sample size of production or lack thereof. There is no doubt that the Brewers could win 73 games, or less. I just think projecting us there is silly. And meanwhile the Cubs and their(at the time) 3 starting pitchers are going to win 100 games? Anything less than a 78 win projection is a terrible projection in my opinion. We have so many guys that could break out. If even 1 or 2 of our many breakout candidates do indeed break out, the 73 win projection is going to look incredibly terrible. Just a follow-up note for the discussion we were having in this thread, the most recent Effectively Wild podcast confirmed that currently the Brewers Fangraphs projection is based solely on Steamer, and that nothing from ZiPS has been factored in thus far. The two projection systems are weighted 50/50, but ZiPS doesn’t get added until late in the off-season. They said ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than Steamer and the Brewers projection will improve when the ZiPS data is eventually applied.

keon broxton entered the 2017 season with one minor league option remaining. he was optioned in 2017 to colorado springs, but his stay there was brief (only ten days), which preserved his remaining minor league option for 2018. Great catch, here is Adam McCalvy’s Tweet on the subject.

A couple of Tweets from Adam McCalvy...

[sarcasm]It’s like riding a bike...[/sarcasm]