Eye Black

AUDIO via the Thr3 and Out Baseball Show: Interview with Brewers Prospect, Catcher Robie Rojas. Rojas selected by the Brewers in the 38th round of the 2017 draft joins the show at the 11:23 mark for a lengthy interview. Discussion covers a variety of topics including his amatuer playing experiences such as playing with Roger Clemens son (and taking BP off “Papa Rog”), playing at three different colleges, playing with current Brewers pitching prospect Jon Perrin in college, proposing to his fiancé while surrounded by coaches and teammates, being drafted by the Brewers, and much more.

That Eric Longenhagen video is well worth it if you haven’t checked it out yet. One really great nugget regarding Tristen Lutz, Longenhagen said that when Kiley McDaniel was with the Braves they had Lutz in for a pre-draft workout. He said Lutz’s exit velo was “off the scale”. He verifies it was in the 110-115mph range, noting “elite exit level velocity”.

Well I guess we could ask him... agent39, are you just trying to drive up his value? "We are staying with our goals and priorities,” said Stearns, who has focused on starting pitching, his bullpen and finding help at second base. “We think we’ve made progress with the work we’ve done to this point. We’ll see what the next four, five, six weeks have in store for us." Pulled from Haudricourt's article. Reading between the lines, that suggests reported interest may just be a phone call checking in on asking price. The Rosenthal article considers that, but then notes that there has been reoccurring interest. This is directly from the Rosenthal article: “Brewers general manager David Stearns touches base with virtually every free agent, so perhaps this is simply due diligence.” .... “Cain, though, has been a frequent topic of conversation among Brewers people this off-season, sources say.”

Being paired with top ten overall prospect Ronald Acuna in a scouting report summary isn’t going to reflect great on most CF prospects, but that is a very flattering evaluation of Harrison’s tools. Exciting to see Monte get some acclaim heading into 2018.

Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season. #9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%) #10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%) #14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%) #19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%) In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%. With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers. We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%. BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.

Yes, here is the MLB Pipeline Article Link which includes Jim Callis confirming Harrison would be somewhere in the middle of his Top 100.

My predictions for BA would be Brinson in the #10-#20 range, Woodruff and Burnes in the #40-#60 range, Keston Hiura in the #60-#80 range, Harrison and Ortiz in the #80-#100 range. I would predict six total.

Well I guess we could ask him... agent39, are you just trying to drive up his value?

If he gets over $50 million, the Giants have stated that they don't want to sign a free agent. Giving up a comp pick is a big deal when they're drafting at the top of the round. I don't think they said they wouldn't do it, but they suggested as to being very cautious when signing free agents because of this. Another thing preventing the Giants from signing significant free agents is that they have been over the luxury tax threshold the last two years and need to stay under it this season to reset the penalties and avoid more significant restrictions (I believe they would be assessed a 40% tax on each dollar spent over the $197 million luxury tax cap this season).

This has been in the back of my mind all off-season, but now Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers have shown interest in Lorenzo Cain (LINK). I presume a Cain signing would almost assuredly coincide with a trade in which the team would use their logjam of outfielders as trade assets. Out of the remaining position players on the free agent market I do think Cain represents the best value. I won’t copy and paste Rosenthal’s article because it is behind The Athletic’s paywall, but he acknowledges that it is an odd fit unless the Brewers trade from their OF group and also notes that Cain has been discussed as a frequent topic of conversation during the off-season among Brewers staff according to his sources.

Hmm, apparently they are still actively shopping Santana. I think Cleveland might be the best match as far as with a team that could provide a MLB pitcher. They actually have some sp depth and could potentially use some added power to the lineup with the departure of Carlos Santana. Broxton still makes too much sense for the Giants. I am not convinced they would be that interested in Domingo Santana, but if the Indians did indeed want him I could see the Brewers front office targeting Francisco Mejia in the return. They have already traded for him once as the primary return piece in the Lucroy trade, and catcher appears to be a position of future need in the organization. The Indians somewhat mysteriously shut Mejia down from playing Dominican winter ball after he participated in just three games and there was speculation they were doing so because he was a part of trade talks, but based on the fact he has been playing year round it is just as plausible they wanted him to get a break. Still a little odd you wouldn’t just prohibit him from playing at all and instead tell him to stop after he had just begun. They also unsuccessfully experimented with him at third base this Fall in Arizona. Mejia is well known for his hit tool and incredibly strong arm. Biggest knock is that he isn’t fleet of foot.

Brewers 2014 10th round selection RHP Javi Salas announced he is stepping away from baseball and has joined an investment banking firm. He penned a thoughtful goodbye to baseball by summarizing the experiences he encountered while chasing his dream: Three Strikes, Two Languages, One Dream. I highly recommend taking a couple of minutes to read his goodbye, and Javi includes some very positive reflections of his time in the Brewers organization. Good luck with your future, Javi!

Thanks for putting together the collection of information on prospects under 20. That has to be the most impressive group of prospects under 20 years old that the Brewers have had in their system in a long time. Regarding the Gabriel Garcia information from Prospects 1500, he actually had 285 plate appearances in Helena this year, and after two seasons his pro slash line is .300/.420/.498. Among teenagers playing in the Pioneer League this past season he ranked third in OPS (.918), second in wOBA (.413), and second in wRC+ (126).

I am skeptical that the Brewers are going to be able to acquire a player that produces as a top of the rotation starting pitcher through Free Agency this off-season. I am wary of both Arrieta and Lynn, and I don't think their odds of landing Darvish are very good. Next year's FA class has more possibilities, but you have to believe they have a realistic shot at landing someone projected to be in the top tier of starting pitching free agents next off-season. The top of the market following the 2018 season currently appears to be Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and David Price (if he opts out). Some potentially good options will be available, although I would guess at least one of those guys will also look less attractive by next off-season. I haven't yet fully convinced myself I would necessarily have the guts to do this... but one other intriguing approach the Brewers could take is to sign Lorenzo Cain to a 4-5 year deal and then use their outfield prospects as the primary carrot to acquire a front of the rotation starter such as Chris Archer. I would hate to part with Lewis Brinson as much as anyone, but it seems like any deal for a Chris Archer type pitcher would almost assuredly need to include Brinson. I think the odds of Cain being as good or better than Brinson's production over the next few years is higher than the odds of a pitcher they acquire through free agency being better than Chris Archer's next four seasons.

I have seen those posts as well, and seeking the definition of “What is an Ace?” is a question worth considering all on its own. I think there is a difference between a true “Ace” pitcher and most team’s “number one” starter. In any given year there seems to be somewhere around maybe a dozen pitchers that could be considered a true Ace. I also think the perception is often that to achieve credibility as an Ace, a pitcher needs to perform consistently at a high level over multiple seasons. Right or wrong, I also think pedigree matters as it takes a lot longer for an unheralded young pitcher to achieve Ace status than it does for one receiving hype and praise throughout his early development. It is hard to quantify exact terms, but a different aura surrounds an Ace as compared to a given team’s number one starter. A team’s number one starter is obviously a position that can be acheived by default. Regarding Jimmy Nelson, he was arguably one of the best 15-20 starting pitchers in baseball last year. Given an identical statical performance he would have been the best starter on at least half the teams in baseball in 2017. So I think it is easy to argue he was a number one starter this past season. That being said, if he was on the open market right now I don’t think he would be viewed nationally as an Ace caliber pitcher. To be considered an Ace I think he would need to maintain similar success for at least another season, if not two more. I don’t want to derail the thread from your question about Jimmy Nelson, but I am curious to hear which current major league starters others would consider an Ace? Here is the final version of Roster Resource’s production based MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2017. It also notes where each pitcher was projected to rank coming into the season. Which of those pitchers do you think have current “Ace” status?

Article Link from Brew Crew Ball on the minor league signing of RHP Radhames Liz. The former Top-100 prospect will receive an invite to big league spring training.

Jeff Passan tweets that the Yankees are getting closer to acquiring Cole...

I thought Greinke’s Arizona contract was completely insane when it was signed, but I think would rather pay Greinke $139 million for his next four seasons than Arrieta $125-plus million over the next five years. Granted they are Greinke’s age 34-37 seasons, but Arrieta will be 36 in the final season of a five year deal. I would also predict that Greinke ages better.

Recently claimed RHP Dylan Baker has been designated for assignment. His stay on the Brewers 40 man roster lasted a little less than one month.

With the Gallardo and Chacin signings official the Brewers will have to trim someone from the 40 man roster by the end of today.

The one thing I appreciate about the Brewers current front office is they aren’t going to make moves just for the sake of making a big splash. They seem very calculated in their approach, and when they do make a move I have no doubt it will fit with the overall plan to build towards longer term sustainable success. I’ll remain patient as long as I believe they are exercising due diligence on all of the various FA and trade options, and I believe they are doing that currently. Regarding high-end pitching, one thing that sometimes gets forgotten is that the Brewers were on the doorstep to acquiring Quintana and by some reports may have had the best offer on the table until the Cubs came in late to the process with what the White Sox obviously felt was a better offer. If the proper value presents itself for a high-end starting pitcher I won’t be surprised to see the Brewers make a move.

It's his K rate that concerns some people, at least that's my concern. It's rare to see someone make it as an effective MLB SP with a rather low k rate in the minors. Right or wrong, that's usually the first thing I look at when looking at stats for a MiLB pitcher. Not saying it's everything of course, just most important to me. I know the strike out rate was low, but I think there is enough reason to believe he wasn't focusing on striking guys out this season. Scouting reports indicate he possesses two present value 60 grade pitches (fastball and slider) and spent 2017 trying to develop a third pitch (change-up) as a 21 year old at AA. I don't think the K/9 numbers should be held against him until we know for certain that he is out there trying to strike everyone out. I think he checks enough boxes right now to feel good about the likelihood he eventually becomes a major league starter.

Breakout: Pitcher Adrian Houser - My hope for Houser is that he is transformed into a reliever that ends up making an impact at the major league level by mid-season. It seems he possesses the ingredients to excel in a middle inning relief role. As we are seeing this offseason that is a role which is currently valued across the industry. Bounce Back: Pitcher Luis Ortiz - I don’t know if his 2017 was considered bad necessarily, but I get the feeling some people have soured on Ortiz. I think that’s a mistake. Ortiz has never been less than 3 years younger than average for his level throughout his minor league career. Now at 21 years old I think he is on the cusp of really putting things together as he develops a repertoire of pitches establishing a no doubt starter profile. My expectations for Ortiz are lofty, but I think even with the potential of facing a tough pitching environment in 2018 he will show signs of solidifying himself as a future major league mid-rotation starter. Bust: Outfielder Trent Grisham - I will preface with the fact that I’ll be ecstatic to be wrong. I know his OBP remains strong for someone who experienced trouble at the plate. I know he was in a tough hitters environment for his home park. My concerns with his performance are two-fold. First, he appeared lackadaisical at times in the field. I am concerned that he may not have the instincts to be a major league center fielder, and a move to a corner outfield spot puts a lot of pressure on his bat to produce. My second concern is how easily he loses his balance on his swing. He had at-bats where he basically corkscrewed himself around in a circle and tipped over on his swing. At times it looked like he was swinging with ice skates on. Again, I hope I am wrong, but I think this will be an important year for his development. Sleeper: Shortstop Antonio Pinero - Based on the defensive profile (plus, plus glove according to Baseball America) for an 18 year old he may already have the floor of being a major league caliber defender. If he can develop into even a below average hitter he has a good chance to eventually contribute at the major league level.

Regarding the velocity, on Baseball America’s Brewers prospect podcast released earlier today they mentioned that they had Ponce working 90-93 MPH with his fastball in Carolina this year, and they didn’t record any pitches above 93 MPH.

I came across this graph depicting total major league WAR (as calculated by Baseball Reference) among players drafted and signed by each team since 2011. It only includes draft picks that were actually signed by the drafting team (so for instance Carlos Rodon’s 4.3 WAR and Mallex Smith’s 2.6 WAR would not count towards the Brewers WAR total despite initially being drafted, but not signed by Milwaukee). It also includes all players drafted and signed regardless of which team the player went on to accrue the WAR totals with (for example Mitch Haniger counts in the Brewers total because they drafted and signed him despite the major league WAR stats coming with the D-Backs and Mariners). Among players drafted and signed by the Brewers since 2011 those that have reached the majors and recorded a career WAR total in the Baseball Reference database are listed below (draft year in parentheses): Mitch Haniger (2012): 3.1 WAR Brent Suter (2012): 2.2 WAR Taylor Jungmann (2011): 1.1 WAR Jacob Barnes (2011): 1.0 WAR Michael Reed (2011): 0.2 WAR Garrett Cooper (2013): 0.1 WAR Jed Bradley (2011): 0.0 WAR Tyler Wagner (2012): 0.0 WAR Damien Magnifico (2012): 0.0 WAR Anthony Banda (2012): 0.0 WAR Barrett Astin (2013): -0.1 WAR Jorge Lopez (2011): -0.1 WAR David Goforth (2011): -0.4 WAR Obviously the more recent draft classes have plenty of time yet to prove their value, and I am certainly hopeful they will. Still this graph sort of sums up how significant the gap can prove among teams that draft well over a stretch of years and those that don’t. Also in looking at the draft classes, the 2013 Brewers draft in particular stands out as providing almost no major league impact (or even hope for future major league contributors). It was obviously the same year they lacked a first round draft pick as well as the pool money affiliated with having a first round draft selection. I think the last couple of drafts have a chance to change this trend for the Brewers. I am also impressed that they have pieced together as solid of a farm system as they have based on some of the previous poor drafts. One thing is certain, the draft matters.