Thurston Fluff

I have no doubt individual teams have their own version of value that takes their park effects and other variables into account. The problem is more from a fan/media perspective. Defense is so much harder to determine objective league wide metrics. Brewers wise I don't think it's a coincidence they've moved to ground ball pitchers when they have such good infield defense. Nor is it a coincidence they collected a lot of good defensive infielders around the same time ground ball pitchers went out of fashion. The cost effectiveness is not just finding undervalued assets but finding a combination of undervalued assets that complement each other.

I think the bigger problem with WAR and defense is determining the value of defense vs offense. Making it even harder is the value of defense varies depending on the pitcher. Ground ball pitchers need better infield defense. Flyball/strikeout pitchers less so. The stadium effect is also in play. Teams with large outfields need better/faster defense in the outfield. Overall defensive WAR is still a work in progress but one that I believe will eventually get to the point where most people agree on an objective number. I think it will take longer to take park effects and pitcher type into account but it's still doable. I question whether a single all WAR taking both defense and offense into account for all teams in all fields is possible.

With Collins out of the picture I think there's a better chance he gets a legitimate shot now than there was.

I sometimes wonder if money drains brains in sports.

True, but I'm not as worried about it as some. First, he'll be another year removed from surgery. Second, it's not just arm strength that goes into it. He had limited action catching last season. I wouldn't be surprised if all of his abilities behind the plate would take some time to get back mechanically and physically. Even if his arm isn't as strong as it once was, his ability to get the ball out of his hand quicker and get into throwing position faster will improve with time behind the plate. Third, small sample warning lights should be going off. Throwing out runners is not just on the catcher. When dealing with a large data set a better caught stealing % is more reliable. That weeds out the significance of pitchers who don't hold runners well, or an unusually high number of great base stealers who can make a smaller sample size look different than the catcher's actual ability. I'm not trying to say he's ready now nor downplaying what shoulder surgery has on caught stealing rates. I'm just not that worried he's no longer capable of being a good overall catcher when his entire goal was to get back up to speed as a catcher. At least not based on a half season's worth of caught stealing rates.

To be fair, there's more to defense behind the plate than throwing out runners. I have zero idea what Garver was like but from what I've read and heard about Quero was he's an all around good defensive catcher.

On a pure player talent evaluation it seems lopsided. When factoring in things like service time, roster space and options it looks closer to even. We may be short of starting outfielders but had a lot of 4th outfielder types. We freed up a spot on the 40 man roster by trading a redundant player. I might be reading too much into this but with all the lefties in the pen it sure seems like they're viewing at least one, more likely two, as starters. With Woody, Priester and Miz locks I think Peralta's time here is over.

1- 7th or earlier is not the same as earlier than the 7th. Nor is his use early in the season the same as when his role was established. Murphy used him in the 7th when there were some lefties coming in the 8th. Both innings are essentially setup innings when you have a both a left and right handed set man. Early in the season nobody knew what to expect out of Uribe. Once he established himself we was used late in close games as a setup man. I don't know if you're trying to deny Murphy wasn't going with roles or you just don't want anyone in roles but it was pretty clear Murphy does. 2- Your argument was most definitely you not wanting to pigeon hole Uribe into one role from the start. I was wrong on what you meant by pigeon hole but not wrong that one of your reasons not to trade Megill was because you didn't want Uribe stuck in one role. The point remains he's going to be either way. The only question is which role. 3- We agree trading Megill to save money is a bad idea. I was never defending the idea of trading him to save money. I just didn't agree with either the argument that he wasn't ready or that he'd suddenly be pigeon holed into a single role was a valid reason not to.

How many times did Uribe come into the game earlier than the seventh inning last season? Murphy has used relievers in pretty clear roles for the bullpen as a whole. While it took time for the roles to shakeout, as it does every year given the volatility of relievers, they each had roles that were pretty defined. Uribe was pretty much a pure setup man prior to closing. I don't recall him being used to get out of a jam in the 5th or 6th inning at all last season. His role last season was the right handed setup man. It wasn't a fireman used whenever seemed most important. Your argument boils down to you don't want to pigeon hole a guy who was already pigeon holed. You may not agree with him being used that way but he was used that way.

If that's what you meant fine. That doesn't seem to be how the Brewers operate though. There's enough recent history here showing they use their best reliever as the closer.

Hard not to see the pigeon holing comment as anything other than an inference he isn't ready for the role.

I saw another post saying something similar about him being a setup man and now we'd somehow be pigeon holing Uribe in the 9th. Where did that come from? Uribe has shown he's more than ready, willing, and able to close. He was being groomed to be one since the minors. It's been obvious for a while that he's the heir apparent closer. There's an argument to be made he'd be our best option now even with Megill on the roster. That doesn't mean I'm for trading Megill. With him we have one of the top back ends of the pen in the game. The ability to shorten the game for a team like the Brewers for less than $5 million is hard to pass up. It just means claiming Uribe is somehow not ready or capable of being a top end closer seems way off to me. If the Brewers want to trade from the bullpen to save money Ashby would be the one IMHO. He's on a team friendly deal if he's a starter but not so friendly as a reliever. If, and it's a big if, the brewers think his days as a starter here are over he could be traded to a team that views him as a starter. A cost controlled starter on a team friendly contract would probably bring back more than Megill would as well. With Hall and a decent number of young starters who could be used as multi inning relievers Ashby is a luxury we can replace. It would also give Ashby a chance to be a starter somewhere. He seems like a guy who could net us a high ceiling prospect who doesn't need 40 man roster protection plus some more immediate help all while saving us money.

Seems odd to have Churio and Ashby in there considering they signed long term deals.

I don't think peripherals are always as indicative of production as some people think but I base that on some pitchers who tend to regularly out/under perform their FIP. When the same pitcher changes from their normal pattern I think there's something going on.

I know it''s impossible to know one way or the other but this might make Peralta harder to trade. Teams know the Brewers would like to have a veteran with all the youth but they also know the Brewers don't have a lot of money so it balanced it out. With Woody back in the fold teams may think the Brewers have more of a need to trade Peralta.

From a purely objective stance I would have been ok either way on this one. The way I look at it is if they planned on getting a veteran pitcher they'd have to spend at least $10 million anyway. When adding in the buyouts and such probably more. That makes this about $12 million to get a certain amount of certainty/continuity with no future financial risk. We know performs well in this environment, has a good track record of production and has shown he can be productive with his current arsenal. From a fan perspective I'm happy he's back for one more run.

IF you've seen him play in AAA your better qualified than I am to judge his progress. I doubt most people who judged his defense have the same amount of recent first hand experience to make a judgement. Which is why I used Durbin as a comparison. I saw some of the same sort of thing when people decided Turang didn't have a strong enough arm to be an elite defensive shortstop despite him coming up as a defense first shortstop.

That's what people said about Durbin's defense at third. I think people forget defense can improve and sometimes that's why a player is left in the minors playing everyday.

This is probably not going to be a popular take but I wouldn't be opposed to giving Black a legitimate shot in left. I know the conventional thought is the Brewers have soured on him or Murphy doesn't trust him but I'm not so sure conventional wisdom is right in this case. It may have been as simple as wanting to keep him playing everyday to improve his defense and not wanting to yo-yo him between AAA and the majors.

While I believe Mitchell will be solid if he can stay healthy I'd like to see him start in AAA. He's been out so much for so long I think everyone would be better served to let him get back to every day work in a less demanding atmosphere.

I see Collins like a Scott Podsednik type. A late bloomer who has a career year early then hangs around for a while because he has the right skillset to play a role but never has another season like his first full year again. He's a great story and I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see him putting up many seasons like the one he just had. Durbin is a solid if unspectacular player who's shown he can hold his own as a starter on any team. I don't know how much room a person his size has to grow but he seems to know himself enough to remain productive. His low hard hit rate and lack of power are going to limit his ceiling. Patrick has the ability to take a step forward. He may not have the electric stuff of Peralta or dominant stuff Miz has but it's better than average and he knows how to use it. He looks to me like a poor mans Woodruff. He gets overshadowed yet at the end of the year has the same amount of success.

Considering the two systems disagree on value I think this is one area where the eye test still has equal value. At this stage the value of defensive metrics are in the attempt more than the result. Medicine had to go through the five humors and blood letting stage to get to where it is today. We're just at the "fetch me a leech" stage with defensive metrics. I agree it's good to see gold gloves be taken more seriously now.

I think Lockridge could be the hedge against another injury. There's also quite a few outfielders in the system as a whole. Probably going to have Bauers as well. There really isn't a need for more than one light hitting, defensive fifth outfielder as insurance.

A six man rotation would make a lot of sense if Woody and/or Peralta are gone. It would ease the workload of the younger starters and keep everyone fresh for the playoffs.

Given every team faces the exact same billion situations it seems fair to say the ones who did the best in all scenarios is actually the best. It's like testing to see the most athletic. Some people may be able to do more pushups, others can run long distances better, others can sprint faster, and so on. When we take all of those things together the one who did better overall is considered the best athlete.