mrn1ceguy

I’m guessing she meant Miley since they mentioned three starting pitchers on the DL with Chacin and Guerra as the two healthy ones.

I keep seeing people dismiss Burnes accomplishments because hes an advanced college pitcher so he should be able to dominate people in A+ and even AA. Have we ever seeing an advanced college pitcher dominate people in A+ and AA before? Nelson didn't. He was good in A+ (2.21 ERA) but struggle mightily in AA with a near 5 ERA). Manny Parra had a good A- but took awhile to post top milb stats. Jungman didn't dominate anyone in the minors until he was much older. It's just not something we can assume Brewer pitchers to do ever, so when it happens it shouldn't be dismissed because he was drafted as an advanced college pitcher.

Ok you've lost me already, I'm sorry I didn't really take much of the rest of your post seriously. When are we signing Cobb AND Arrieta? I can understand one of the two, but obviously we've gone almost 5 months without signing a single one of the two, what makes you think we're going to acquire both? If that's your logic behind trading Davies, you need to have both signed first. If you trade Davies before that happens (which he is pre-arb, and not even in the REALM of their price tags currently), you're trading away your current #2 pitcher, with very little starting pitching depth. I'm sorry that I can't take your argument seriously for this scenario, I wish I could see your point of view Here's my take on how this could work. Assume this optimistic (but plausible) scenario takes place: 2018: -Sign Cobb to 4 year deal. -Open the season with Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff. -All five do well (Anderson <3.0 ERA, Cobb, 3.5 ERA, Davies 3.75 ERA, Chacin <4 ERA, Woodruff ~4 ERA). -Nelson rehabs well and performs great for half a season after someone (let's go with Cobb) gets hurt, Burnes impresses in AAA. 2019 -Trade Chacin for an ok prospect. -Open the season with Nelson, Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Woodruff (all five continue to do well) -Burnes gets about 8 weeks in the majors to fill for injuries (let's say Woodruff). Ortiz impresses in AAA. 2020 -Trade Anderson or Davies to clear a spot and get back stud prospects. -Open season with Nelson, Anderson/Davies, Cobb, Woodruff, Burnes. -Ortiz gets a half season to fill for injuries. Next round impresses in AAA (let's go with Kirby, Ponce, and Zach Brown). 2021 -Continue the cycle. Trade a SP for a stud prospect (let's go with Cobb or the other of Anderson/Davies). -Now the stud prospects you acquired are the next wave to step up. That is the scenario I'd like to get at. What you need is 5 expected starting pitchers and a top prospect in AAA. This becomes a continual pipeline of talent allowing you to extend a true rotation anchor and trade the rest one at a time after they perform for 2-4 years. Some years you skip because no-one stepped up or someone flames out. Some years you can work more than one prospect in because the farm is stronger. But overall, once you shoot for bringing up a rookie pitcher each year and extend one every 3-4 years so they are here for ~8 years of control, you will almost always have an extra pitcher to trade away. We aren't there yet (but could have been if Nelson didn't get hurt) but we are one year away from churning a starter every off-season and two years from trading starters for top-100/top-50 prospects every year (assuming some good breaks/production).

That was over three months ago and I'm sure the Cubs offer is not on the table anymore. Holland was offered the same deal Davis got from Colorado and I'd be shocked if Holland can get anywhere close to that now. Cobb may have to settle for a smaller deal with an opt-out or just overall less money. I actually think he will get under the 15M/year but 4 years. Something like 4 year / 56 Million with an opt-out after 2 years.

If we wanted to go "low" contracts with incentives, I would think it's something like: Arrietta - Two years, 60 million, Opt-out after year one, team options for $15 million in 2020 & 2021, year 3 & 4 vest with 380IP in 2017/2018 & escalate by $5 million a year. Lynn - I got nothing, can't think of a good contract that makes both sides happy. Cobb - 2 Year, 40 million, year 3 & 4 vesting years @ 20 Million with 180IP in previous year, else team options for year 3 & 4 @ 15 million Holland - One year 15 Million, mutual option for year 2 @ 15 millon, vests if >40 saves or >60 saves & holds. Maybe 3rd year team options @ 15 million? Walker - One year, 6 million. 2nd year @ 12 million vest if starts >140 games. Maybe 3rd year team options @ 10 million? Lucroy - One year, 6 million. 2nd year @ 12 million vest if starts >120 games. Maybe 3rd year team options @ 10 million? To make these works, the players need to be able to earn the extra years which could get them the contracts they originally wanted otherwise they head back to FA.

I don't think that rotation is good enough to compete with the Cubs. Honestly, I think it would put us around 86 wins, and the exact same position we were in last year. Cobb doesn't move the needle at all IMO. That rotation lacks firepower at the top. Should Lester regain form, the Cubs' top 3 pitchers would be better than our best. Only adding Cobb to the rotation would be a disappointment in my book. I would like him as the 2nd addition to the rotation. Cobb would be the 2nd addition (Chacin was the 1st). We had a top ten rotation last year. We shouldn't be using resources to get 3 new Starting Pitchers when we had a top ten rotation. One to fill in for the injured Neslon - agreed. A second to upgrade the peralta/garza/suter/guerra spot - agreed if Hader is bullpen only (seems like it). A third to push out promising rookie (Woodruff), block promissing minor leaguer (Burnes) and to relegate another starter to the bullpen (Chacin) when Nelson comes back - waste of resources. At a certain point, there is significant diminishing returns. We also have significant injury depth in the 6th/7th/8th starter (someone who can be in the bullpen or in AAA) in Suter, Guerra, Wilkerson, Burnes.

Sure looks like they did. If we assume the roster will include Cain, Yelich, Braun, Santana and Thames with Phillips/Broxton/Aguilar in AAA or traded, their starts can easily be balanced. LF: Yelich (123), Braun (39) CF: Cain (135), Yelich (27) RF: Santana (150), Cain (12) 1B: Braun (81), Thames (81) DH: Thames (10) Yelich gets 150 games (12 days off throughout the year) Cain gets 147 games (15 days off throughout the year) Santana gets 150 games (12 days off throughout the year) Braun gets 120 games (~1 day off a week plus one 10-day DL trip) Thames gets 91 games The only person who loses playing time outside of what they can be expected to play is Thames who already should sit every game with a lefty starter (~50). So all in all, he's only sitting an extra 20 games beyond an ideal scenario.

Yes, Arcia hasn't shown to be one of the top 5 hitters on this team. Could he get there, absolutely. But no way is he better than Yelich or Braun as 2nd, or better then Shaw or Santana as 3, 4, or 5.

Now, imagine if we can trade Santana for Meija from Cleveland: 2019/2020: Cain, Yelich, braun, Shaw, huira, meija, Phillips/Lutz, arcia. Rotation of Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Burnes. Bullpen of Kneble, Hader, Peralta, Williams, ... That could be scary good.

Make that two of us. This is pretty much my preferred option at this point.

I think the likelihood of Hader being given a shot in the rotation goes way up if we don't sign anyone else. Assuming has a good spring, we could possibly see: Anderson Davies Chacin Woodruff Hader And a bullpen of Knebel, Albers, Logan, Barnes, Suter, Jeffress, Guerra and Gallardo (with Williams/Houser as next in line) Then midseason, one of Nelson, Burnes, Wilkerson would move to the rotation letting Hader finish in the bullpen (allowing him to pitch all year with his likely ~150IP limit. I probably leaning towards signing someone (Cobb/Arrieta) because a bullpen for Hader doesn't exist in FA at this moment but I wouldn't be oppose to running with the scenario above.

I disagree entirely. Say we trade Santana for some top tier prospects who won't be ready in 2018. I would then put the likelyhood of signing one of the FA SP very high. Let's go Darvish for fun. Any of the "top 4" work. Let's also say we can get Walker for 2yr/16M (Seems likely). If not, Kipnis or Harrison should be relatively cheap to acquire. Or even give Villar another shot (a very good fall-back option). If we sign Walker, this means we move Aguilar & Villar. We now have the following roster: C: Pina (100 games) / Vogt (62 games) 1B: Thames (81 games) / Braun (81 games) 2B: Walker (150 games) / Sogard (12 games) SS: Arcia (150 games) / Sogard (12 games) 3B: Shaw (150 games) / Perez (12 games) LF: Yelich (130 games) / Braun (32 games) CF: Cain (130 games) / Yelich (22 games) / Perez (10 games) RF: Phillips (120 games) / (Cain 22 games) / Perez (20 games) SP: Darvish, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff *SP available mid season: Nelson, Burnes, Wilkerson, Ortiz? RP: Knebel, Hader, Albers, Logan, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Gallardo *RP available in AAA (Williams, Houser, Guerra?) I would be very happy with that lineup and see it as setup to win this year while best using all our resources. We have enough starting capable people not at full ~150 games load (Thames, Braun, Perez, Phillips, Broxton in AAA) to cover injuries just about anywhere. We have 5 quality starting pitchers (Woodruff still in the prove-it stage) with a strong batch of mid-season reinforcements. A deep bullpen with a couple strong AAA options. The main value of trading Santana for a SP would be either because Phillips shouldn't be starting or to save money on a FA SP. Otherwise, move him for a stud AA pitcher (Puk) or a stud AAA catcher (Meija) and we now have both a good 2018 squad with strong improvement ready for 2019..

Is the listing a home alone reference?

My personal reason for wanting to trade Santana for prospects is for three reasons. A, I only want us to get one more SP so as not to push Woodruff back to AAA and FA is the best rout. Second, while keeping Santana with Yelich, Cain, Braun, and Thames makes an awesome combo, someone is going to get relegated to be a part timer (probably Thames). Moving one of them would be of better value and of that set, only Thames & Santana can be moved and Santana should get us a better haul. And D, I want Phillips starting ~3/4 of the games in RF. His D along with Yelich and Cain would be awesome. Keeping Braun/Thames in the lineup with Yelich, Cain and Shaw makes for a strong top 4. If we can squeeze out a top 50 prospect who is in AA at a position of need for Santana (Meija?), that would be the best use of resources, in my opinion.

Say we get a SP from FA decide against trading for another SP. That could mean Santana could be used to trade for an upgrade at Catcher. How would people think a Santana to Cleveland for Meija work? It's possible (probable?) Meija would be ready to split duties by mid/late 2018. It would only be an upgrade for half a season (if that) but it could be one heck of an upgrade if he pans out. Would Santana for Meija be 1:1 or would someone need to add a prospect / offload a contract (Kipnis) or is the trade not possible. I would absolutely love to find a way to get Meija into the brewer organization.

I personally think trading Santana, burnes, Phillips and Peralta for archer makes us a worse team in 2018. Especially when people are taking about adding two SP and sending Woodruff back to aaa.

I made an edit as I figured this would be the takeaway for many. Get that ERA- a further few points lower (As I think these five guys aren't being signed for their career averages but for what they are expected to do going forward) to 89 and that's a top 5 rotation. Nor is it taking into account Jimmy, nor that the prospects coming through can make it. And the point is that you don't have to have an "ace" to get to that top 5 level. It's not even a matter of not wanting an "ace", just that for what you give up for that ace you can potentially get more in return by spending the same on two #3s, or something else. Now I'm curious what the past few WS teams had for rotation rankings. Lets see if top ten is sufficient or do you really need top 5. Any tips in looking up this information? Edit: I found rankings by WAR on baseballreference: 2017 Houston: #11, Dodgers #5 2016 Cubs: #2, Indians #4 2015 Royals: #21, Mets: #8 2014 Giants: #19, Royals: #11 2013 Red Sox: #17, Cardinals: #4 So at least according to WAR, you don't need a top 5 or even top 10 rotation to make the WS if the rest of your roster compensates (bullpen, late season addition, bats, defense, ...). Note that these rankings cover every start, not just your top five.

Here's how I do it: LF: Yelich (130 games) / Braun (32 games) CF: Cain (140 games) / (Yelich 22 games) RF: Santana (152 games) / Cain (10 games) 1B: Braun (81 games) / Thames (81 games) DH: Braun (10 games) Outcome Yelich: 152 starts, 10 games on the bench/dl Cain: 150 starts, 12 games on the bench/dl Santana: 152 starts, 10 games on the bench/dl Braun: 123 starts, 38 games on the bench/dl Thames: 81 starts, 81 games on the bench/dl Phillips - to AAA Brxoton - to AAA Aguilar - released or traded for low level milb Summary: Yelich, Cain and Santana start as normal. Braun gets 75% of games which is one day off a week with one 10 dl trip. Thames is now the part time player / primary bench bat. If anyone gets a serious injury, Thames fills in with Braun heading to the OF. If more than one injury or a season ending injury, Phillips is up. The only loss of having too many players is potentially getting a poor return on Aguilar (no big loss) and Thames going from an 80% player to a 50% player (if everyone stays healthy). And the overall roster make is unchanged with the bench being Thames, Perez, Sogard, Vogt. I would say that's a pretty manageable worst case scenario and see no reason we need to trade anyone.

You are free to leave, no one is keeping you here. Bye. Seriously you guys..., his trade proposal wasn't all that far off from even value. I think Santana has slightly more value than Salazar due to durability concerns and his issues in 2017, and Shaw has slightly more value than Mejia only because he's in his prime and has had success while Mejia has yet to have MLB success. Mejia has hit well in the minors but not for a ton of power and he's a question mark to stick behind the plate. If he does stick, he'll be a below average receiver. If power develops his bat will play anywhere, but if he's more of a 15-20 hr guy at peak he wouldn't play well at 3b or 1b. I like Mejia, but he isn't quite worth Shaw for me. Aside from value, I'm not sure I like the idea of trading Shaw just yet. I don't think his value goes down a ton after this year, especially as a 27/28 year old currently. I'd be more inclined to trade him next offseason or the following deadline when Erceg is closer to ready, otherwise replacing him can be difficult. I think there are other ways to target the guys noted that are a better fit for the Brewers. And I would avoid mocking someone's trade proposals in general, maybe state why you don't think it's fair or leave it alone, but no need to mock it...Especially considering one of you guys proposed Santana and Williams for Kipnis/Salazar/Mejia and were serious. I don't see people lining up to mock that one and telling you to leave the forums and that's not even close to a realistic proposal. I'm fairly certain the bolded line above is what people took issue with. If you are making a post about rather being at a different forum because the posters at the other board are better, that's a dig to everyone here. They weren't saying to leave because of the trade proposal or defending it, rather that if a poster prefers the company of a different board, no one here is stopping them from leaving.

I believe they get at least one more starter. Probably by trading Santana. At this point wouldn't be shocked if they signed a FA as well. The last 24 hours have really confused my expectations. I would be shocked if we got two more starters. Getting one firmly puts Hader/Suter into the pen (which seems likely at this point). Getting a second puts Woodruff to AAA to start the season and then if/when Nelson comes back, puts Chacin/Davies to the pen. That seems like two many quality pitchers to manage. I know you can never have too much pitching but with the Nelson complications and solid AAA depth already (Burnes, Ortiz, Wilkerson), I don't think a second starting pitcher is a good use of resources. Odds are, next year we could be trading 1 or 2 of our starters because we don't have room for them.

My preference on this: 1B: Braun (81 games), Thames (81 games w/ 0 against LHP) LF: Yelich (100 games); Braun (52 games) CF: Cain (110 games); Yelich (52 games) RF: Phillips (120 games); Cain (42 games) Trade Santana for Salazar + or for Meija and sign a FA pitcher. This keeps Braun at ~130 games, Yelich & Cain at ~150 games, Phillips at ~120 games and Thames at ~80 games. Seems like a good split to me.

I will speak to your ideas for trades with Cleveland. Forget Aguilar heading back to the Tribe. They have under contract for multiple years EE & Yonder Alanso. They also have a top 1B prospect in Bradley that will be in AAA this season. No space or need to bring back Aguilar. You idea to acquire Mejia is flawed. Mejia is on par with Brinson. You would not give up Brinson for a grab bag of prospects where 1 was a pitcher & 2 more were CF. Hence Cleveland would not deal Mejia for a grab bag with 1 pitcher and 2 catchers. Cleveland already has a surplus at C & has 4 of them on the 40 man right now. Both guys in the majors have multiple years of contract control remaining. If there was concern about the catching area, Mejia would not be available in trade, he would be put to use in Cleveland. Good point on Aguilar, I forgot about Bradley. I just knew they needed some more RH hitting and figured he could be a could bench bat. That being said, Bradley also bats LH so Aguilar may still be useful (although not by a lot). As to Meija. I'm definitely trying to shoe-horn in Meija into a Santana trade. If it's Santana for prospects (as I put in Option #2), I see it as do-able. However, in Santana for Salazar, Cleveland needs to add but Meija is clearly overkill. So what could we add on our side to make it work? Maybe Santana, Diaz, Pennington for Salazar & Meija? I'm obviously flawed starting with an end goal and trying to make it work but it would nice to find a way to make it work.

I have a couple scenarios I've bounced around in my head (and posted elsewhere). Option #1 Trade to Miami: Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon, Supak for Yelich & Barraclough. Trade to Cleveland: Santana, Nottingham, Feliciano, Derby for Salazar & Meija Trade to Anyone: Villar for lottery prospect Aguilar for lottery prospects (or maybe to Cleveland) FA: Walker (2yr/22M) New Roster: LF: Braun (50%), Yelich (50%) CF: Yelich (50%), Phillips (25%), Broxton (25%) RF: Phillips (75%), Broxton(25%) 1B: Thames (75%), Braun (25%) 2B: Walker SS: Arcia 3B: Shaw IF Bench: Sogard, Perez for periodic days off C: Pina (70%), Vogt (30%) SP: Anderson, Davis, Chacin, Salazar, Woodruff (& Nelson, Burnes, Wilkerson ready to contribute in May/June in case of injury or performance) RP: Knebel, Barraclough, Hader, Logan, Oh, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Williams Braun learns 1B and takes all (or almost all) lefty starts at 1B (~25%). In this secario, we improve the team and take a hit to the farm but still come away with a top prospect (Meija) Option #2 Trade to Miami: Brinson & Ray for Yelich & Chen. Trade to Cleveland: Santana for Kipnis & Meija Trade to Anyone: Villar for lottery prospect Aguilar for lottery prospects (or maybe to Cleveland) FA: Oh (1yr/4M) New Roster: LF: Braun (50%), Yelich (50%) CF: Yelich (50%), Phillips (25%), Broxton (25%) RF: Phillips (75%), Broxton(25%) 1B: Thames (75%), Braun (25%) 2B: Kipnis SS: Arcia 3B: Shaw IF Bench: Sogard, Perez for periodic days off C: Pina (70%), Vogt (30%) SP: Anderson, Davis, Chacin, Chen, Woodruff (& Nelson, Burnes, Wilkerson, Ortiz ready to contribute in May/June in case of injury or performance) RP: Knebel, Hader, Logan, Oh, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Williams Braun learns 1B and takes all (or almost all) lefty starts at 1B (~25%). In this secario, we improve the team while probably either not hurtin or even improving our farm (Meija & lottery vs Brinson & Ray). Anything too unrealistic?

But if Miami moves Chen, they can now buy any/everyone next year if they want with only minimum/near minimum contracts. Also, if we were willing to take Ellsbury (no clue if true), I see no reason we wouldn't take Chen. So, trade Brinson & Ray for Yelich and Chen. Trade Santana for Kipnis & Meija New Roster: OF: Braun, Yelich, Phillips, Broxton 1B: Thames 2B: Kipnis SS: Arcia 3B: Shaw IF Bench: Sogard, Perez, Aguilar C: Pina, Vogt SP: Anderson, Davis, Chacin, Chen, Woodruff (& Nelson, Burnes, Wilkerson, Ortiz ready to contribute in May/June in case of injury or performance) RP: Kneble, Hader, Logan, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Williams We could still sign a SP FA (Lynn, Cobb, ...), RP FA (Oh), trade Villar for someone, trade Aguilar for someone and let Braun take all lefties at 1st. And to top it off, we improve the team while probably improving our farm (Meija & prospect for Villar vs Brinson & Ray).

I've come to think it was Ellsbury or Yelich (not that the two are comparable). Assuming Santana is traded, you would be looking at a OF of Braun, Brinson & Phillips with Broxton as the 4th. If we get Yellich, assume Brinson is gone and you now have are good with Braun, Yellich and Phillips and Broxton as backup to all spots and defensive replacement. If we get Ellsbury, he's to be the veteran 4th OF or emergency starter in case a young player struggles behind Braun, Brinson and Phillips. I don't see the value in having Ellsbury behind Braun, Yellich and Phillips.