Playing Catch

There was a thread earlier this season about this topic, and at the time, I wanted Patrick in the rotation due to the history the Brewers have had developing young pitchers beginning with bullpen work, whether that leads to a backend role, like Hader, a swingman role, like Tobias Myers/Chad Patrick, or a starting role, like Burnes/Woodruff. So I wanted to just keep Patrick in the rotation to ease the transition for the young guns. However, the young guns have taken to the starting roles so comfortably, and as many have noted, Patrick has been solid working in relief, so I'm now totally onboard with Patrick moving full-time into a bullpen role of some kind. I don't care at all about using the length the lengthy bullpen guys have to offer. Instead I embrace it. Therefore, I'd love for Patrick to be a RH flex-piece out of the pen, like Ashby has been from the left, and let him roll through an order a couple of times. I think the Baseball World is ready for a new appreciation for long-relievers, with so many 5-and-dive guys in the league. They just need to re-brand the role, as swingmen have the long-standing reputation as being the last guys in the pen. With Ashby and Patrick, too, you can bring them in to finish an inning with one batter on back-to-backs to mitigate their weekly pitch-counts without sacrificing bullpen depth day-to-day. This is all with the hope that Uribe and Megill return to form, and that their remaining one-inning lefties (Hall/Rob Z/Fitzpatrick) can stay healthy and perform well-enough. (And it's easy enough to move Ashby to that role, and backfill with the rotation depth).

I agree that anyone that pays attention to baseball is rolling their eyes each time Murph says stuff like this. But Murphy was responding to a Cubs beat reporter's question. Murph wasn't talking to people that pay attention to baseball. He was talking to Cubs fans.

Are you referring to the exit velocities? Because that was the last step for me, personally, in his readiness, and he's posted some very nice exit velos lately. He's not just hitting to all fields, he's been hitting to all fields with some punch.

I've never understood referring to Burke as a power-over-hit profile. He hit to all fields and made good swing decisions in college, and much of that quality has been maintained in the minors. He always felt like a less-heralded Prince Fielder profile to me. Fielder was a really good hitter, not just "power-over-hit". Both of them more athletic than their physiques suggest. Write-ups seem to explain-away Burke's matching minor-league HR/SB totals, and always seem surprised when they say his glove is better than they expected. All of the same stuff scouts say about Burke is what they said about Prince as a prospect, except that Prince had a very famous baseball slugger for a father. Had he been an unknown, Fielder's path very well could have mimicked Burke's through the SEC. Prince was a borderline HOF talent, so I'm NOT suggesting Burke is Fielder 2.0, and I'm sure there are plenty of other variances in their games. I just think Burke gets unfairly typecast a lot due to his barrel-chested look. I think it's perfectly fair for scouts, with their jobs on the line, to stand on body-type precedents/long-term outlooks when projecting, but I think most of the time, it's just easier for them to predict meager outcomes, because that is ALWAYS the safest prediction for ALL prospects, and certainly the safer prediction for that body type. But based on his production, I just think scouts would like him a lot more, if it came from a guy that looked like Spencer Jones.

Wow. It just goes to show that for me, the Cubs manager could be Mother Theresa, and I'd be comfortable with people booing them. I see Craiggers wearing that hat, and I think, "Aww, I liked that guy!"

Overall: I think an outside reviewer of the organization would feel comfortable looking at the run-prevention units as "championship caliber*". I also think impartial observers would look at the Brewers 12-month track record of scoring runs, as "sustainable," while recognizing that their unconventional means of ranking 6th in baseball in runs/game, leave the reviewer curious and confused. So, for the objective among us, it looks like the Brewers are right in the thick of things, and like many teams of that tier, have some concerns about x, y, or z. A boring review, but that's how I'm assessing things. Position-Players: Even though I share the desire to improve the wOBA from the left-side of the infield (I'm less concerned about the OF/1B/DH situation), and am impatient for the team to do something --- anything! --- to try and remedy things, I think the Crew are stuck in a weird spot right now with prospect promotions/40-man spots unless they are willing to begin jettisoning the Perkins/Ortizes/Rengifos/Hamiltons (and other extra 40-man guys) of the world. The Brewers have three nearly-ready made replacements for Ortiz (Pratt), and Perkins (Lara), as well as an everyday utility type, in Jett Williams in AAA Nashville. All of Damon Keith, Dylan O'Rae, Dasan Brown, and Jesus Made have done enough in AA Biloxi to warrant promotions to backfill there. I'm unconvinced there would be a discernible improvement to the Brewers offense with any of those promotions, however, due to prospective playing-time (Lara playing in Perkins bench role), or due to the lack of big-league track record of performance (Pratt or Jett). It's easy to sit here any say that ANYONE can hit better than Ortiz, but instead, if one were to try and guess which of those two players were more likely to hit to a wRC+ of say, 80 for the rest of the season? That's a lot tougher (FWIW, Fangraph's projections suggest Ortiz is more likely to achieve that mark). It feels icky to me to imagine NOT doing anything. But I also feel like unless Made is ready to play defense at short everyday, like Konner Griffin, the internal options through promotions will just be lipstick on a pig, offensively. It may look more appealing, but I'm not sure it will change the Brewers fortunes in the fall. Pitching: The pitching situation, is no less confused, but I find it FAR more interesting. It looks to me, like the Brewers are strongly going to consider just backfilling the 'pen with their starters, and just continuing to pitch the hot hands in the hot roles. Reading his comments on the matter, it seems like Patrick is destined to be the RH Ashby. It looks like Drohan could grow into a leverage-role, like Koenig's former role. Crow has taken to the starting role, and Gasser's big-league stuff works well as the 12th/13th man in the 'pen, providing innings in blowouts. They've obviously leaned into finishing games with pitchers they are comfortable exposing to lineups twice through. Even though the back-end, leverage situations have been a roller-coaster ride, compared to recent Brewer seasons, I feel like the pure stuff that the SP-depth guys have to offer fit just fine in the bullpen, and really mitigate my concerns there. It's going to be really fun to see how this continues to develop. *non-Dodgers division (i.e. it's the Dodger's world, and we're all just living in it).

For myself, it feels like lately the Brewers are always starting a guy that could go out and replicate what Woody, Freddy, or Priester would otherwise offer at this point in the season, both in terms of IPs and level-of-play. It's very satisfying. It's always a pleasant "surprise" when Miz starts, because I'm never looking forlornly for the top-of-the-rotation to come back around. I'm excited to watch all of them pitch. The rotation is slowly morphing into the dominant rotation Arnold and Co. hoped for when acquiring these guys. They have to keep progressing, of course. I'll be curious what kind of juice Miz brings tonight on a Tuesday home game versus the pedestrian Padres.

The thing with Yoho, for me, has always been that it's seems hard for him to get hitters to honor his FB. So then he needs to get swing and miss with breaking stuff in the zone, and that's "hard" (compared to elite relievers), because his stuff breaks so much, that it looks like a ball, and guys take it, forcing him to land them in the zone more often to get the strikes he needs. I would love for someone to tell me why I'm wrong, because I'm confident that I'm probably wrong. I think Yoho will have a long MLB career, but that he'll struggle to be more than a 2nd-division regular, rather than the elite pen arm we all hope for.

I know nothing about kinesiology, physiotherapy, or what-have-you, but the kid is built like a rubber band. So much of the torque is coming from his long spine and torso muscles (compared to a differently-built pitcher). Again, I know nothing, and any physical attributes one possesses for pitching is probably a balancing-act of pros/cons, but based on my viewing of his situation, I am of the opinion that there's nothing in particular about Miz that makes him more of an injury-risk, aside from any known-unknowns, specifically how different stresses/rest-cycles/pitch-types can impact inflammation/recovery (i.e. any scientific foreknowledge that can help to prevent injuries). Maybe how the Brewers have developed, and use him, puts him in more/less danger. But I don't know of any compelling evidence to demonstrate this.

Even if they are strong through July, it just makes overtaking them in late August all the sweeter.

I think it's fair to say that the Brewers will continue to start Chourio and Frelick in the OF nearly every game. That leaves one spot, in say, left field. Currently on the roster, when considering the DH, Murphy can choose between Yelich, Bauers, Mitchell, and Perkins. Then also Black, and Lockridge on the 40-man. Considering Thurston and adamb2's excellent points above, I will predict the Brewers choose offense for that 3rd spot, instead of defense. My point being that instead of trying to replace underperformance from the starters (to date, many starting spots included lots of innings dedicated to guys like Greg Jones and Luis Matos, let alone our established platoon/bench centerfielders, Mitchell and Perkins), they would sooner play Black in left (w/ Chourio in CF, and Sal in RF), over the very young, Lara, in center, and they would probably choose the older, more versatile, Jett Williams over Lara in left. Or even find other Matos/Jones-type guys they are comfortable releasing if need be, in order to keep flexibility on the 40-man.

I haven't looked at any data, but it seems like Sanchez is often the one that uses the last challenge of the game, when it's late, and there's one available. But even if that's not the case, the challenge success rate only tells part of the story. Another part of the story is that Sanchez was hot early with challenges, and perhaps Murph and others give him the green light, when others (Vaughn??) don't yet have that option, lest they be optioned/DFA'd (Greg Jones). Sanchez is also brought up as a pinch-hitter in key spots, where using a challenge is leveraged. The system, and the unknown strategies that lie therein, I think, will remain mysterious until maybe the All-Star break, when teams have had enough experience and data to formulate some kind of conventional thought towards the system. There's no doubt in my mind that the variance between players will be distinct, and real enough that some players/teams will use it differently based on the players skill-level. But then again, I thought torpedo bats were gunna be a thing for a minute there.

It would be great if all of these relatively short-term injuries were all a ruse to spread the innings as the season goes, (not that TOS fits in with "inflammation/dead-arm," and "leg cramps"). Maybe come October, we're all feeling really confident with Woody, Priester, and Misiorowski because they are all fresh!

Does anyone else feel like yesterday was the real start to the season?

It certainly bucks conventional wisdom. I don't agree with it, but there's probably a world where a really good, speedy bunter not only moves the runner to third, but scores the runner on an error at first(?) I mean, I'm not sure I wouldn't think that's a more likely outcome than a liner to the RF corner.

Yep. As Torts said. I don't like this development at all. They were lashing opposite-field singles last night, and I believe that's the new-wave of offense to counter all of the elite pitches hitters see these days. Take what the pitcher gives you.

Are we sure Ortiz hasn't already been relegated to short-side platoon? Hamilton is getting lots of shortstop-time lately. Speaking only for myself. I don't like it. Perhaps it's because I've been spoiled watching Ortiz's silky, superlative D for long enough, now, that I want to tear my eyes out at every nuance of struggle from Hamilton there, but I think it's Pratt or no one for me. And that's only if Pratt can rival Ortiz's D.

It's really not. Yeah. I think that some fans (not necessarily jay), see the lack of FA spending/payroll as a lack of having winning intentions, and presume that these trades reflect an eye on profit/avarice. But the Brewers have obviously eschewed spending on "stars," and have instead put an onus on real-world, on-field player-value. And not just generically valuing WAR-above-all, but valuing very specific skillsets that fill out an entire team's roster in order to win games. The front office simply doesn't behave like a team that is primarily focused on merely providing a summer's worth of entertainment.

This player is really intriguing to me. Nineteen year-old American third basemen/outfielder/pitchers don't typically sign as a free agent catchers. Based on the little internet-ing I've dug through, he is reported (perhaps by himself/agent) to be "uber-athletic," and has posted elite pop times. I guess I can see a situation where an undersized gamer doesn't have the juice to get paid in college OR the draft as a hitter/pitcher, but loves the game enough to commit to catching for an organization that will value him despite his size(?)

They got 3 lefties on the 60-day IL, and another lefty on the IL in AAA. It's still weird they don't have more than one, though. I guess this is what the Brewers were trying to avoid when building their own roster.

Granted, I've liked Burke since he was drafted, but I think he's got the goods to play first base by June '27, probably in a platoon with Adams. I think Black's best hope is that he performs well enough to get traded for, and has a career like Jake Bauers, where he fills a specific roster-role.

If we really want to get nutz... Are we sure an out-of-contention Astros team would turn down Pena for Ortiz straight up? Ortiz would represent a cheap, defensive dynamo for the organization that traded for Correa. Say what one will about Ortiz, but he has value in a bench role, and has always been available.

We've seen the ceilings and floors for all of the guys in the bullpen (and those that get occasional starts, like Drohan). Each of those guys, when they've been on, have flashed excellence. It's possible that the pitching is just slowly ramping up for a long season, tweaking, fixing, strengthening their arsenals, and that they'll get back to being a top-5 run prevention team (they are right around 5th-10th in MLB in most pitching categories right now). It's also possible that Chourio and Vaughn can juice the lineup as we hope, and the Brewers will have a comfortable 3 game lead by June 1. This is NOT the optimism thread, but there are plenty of optimistic scenarios one could forecast. Many of those possible forecasts could merely include across-the-board improvement/consistency from the guys on the field. They don't necessarily need a magic-bullet from outside the org to be really good. Maybe they just need the guys on the field to play a little better. This really shouldn't be that big of an ask for a young roster.

The fWAR leaderboard for 3rd-base (primary position), 2024-present Spoiler - Ortiz ranks 14th. If you filter for only when playing 3rd base, he drops down to 21st. This isn't meant to make a claim of any kind, but it is one more indicator of the dearth of left-sided infielders in the game. Someone else could perhaps filter information more effectively than me, but when I counted down the WAR leaders in that span that are either a SS OR 3B (but not 2nd base), Joey was about 30th on the list. I just can't shake the feeling that the Brewers don't have an Ortiz-problem, but that MLB has an infielder-problem. Heck, a right fielder led shortstops in DRS last season.

No, they didn't. Nor will they pay full-freight on any other deadline deal, and yet, you think an Arby-2 guy that could be flipped in the offseason with one year of player control remaining, like Pena, is out-of-the-question🙃 Look, I think that most of us agree that the Brewers operate with dollars, sense, and an eye toward the future. And correctly predicting any hypothetical trade 3 months hence would come with lucrative odds, but I think correctly predicting a trade doesn't happen? That may pay out in pennies. I don't think the Brewers will acquire Pena either, and as many have said, it very well could come at an exorbitant prospect-cost. But I'm not as willing to accept the premise that this front office only does things one way. In addition, the Brewers have never had this much pending prospect capital, ever. We don't know if that makes Arnold's trade trigger-finger itchy. I doubt it. But hypothetically? In the Trade Rumors forum? I think we can entertain the possibilities.