SRB

Seems like a great deal for the Mets. Here's hoping the Brewers splurge on Grandal.

Nothing wrong with disagreement, but I would point out that any macro-level criticism of Stearns has to contend with a pretty enormous headwind given that he just took a team that was supposed to be rebuilding and fourth or fifth in the NL Central to the best record in the NL and one game away from the World Series

As a prospective World Series contender, I don't think we can punt on 2B just because Hiura might break out. The front office should absolutely be planning to sign a guy who can be a credible everyday starter in both 2019 and 2020 (i.e. not Hernan Perez...). Lowrie brings added value in that he is a little more versatile than some of the other 2B free agents.

2016-2018 RP by fWAR, 100+ IP 20. Josh Hader, 129.0 IP, 2.30 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 3.8 fWAR 21. Chris Devenski, 209.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 3.6 fWAR 22. Joakim Soria, 183.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.5 fWAR 23. Brad Brach, 209.2 IP, 2.88 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 3.5 fWAR 24. Alex Claudio, 197.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.4 fWAR 25. Pat Neshek, 133.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.4 fWAR 26. Wade Davis, 167.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR 27. Addison Reed, 209.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR 28. Juan Nicasio, 170.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR 29. Alex Colome, 191.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR 30. Zach Britton, 145.0 IP, 1.86 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 3.2 fWAR Most recent or 2019 projected free agent contracts: 20. Josh Hader - n/a 21. Chris Devenski - n/a 22. Joakim Soria - 3 years/$26 million 23. Brad Brach - 2 years/$14 million (projected) 24. Alex Claudio 25. Pat Neshek - 2 years/$17 million 26. Wade Davis - 4 years/$67 million 27. Addison Reed - 2 years/$17 million 28. Juan Nicasio - 2 years/$17 million 29. Alex Colome - n/a 30. Zach Britton - 3 years/$36 million (projected) Factoring in his age, I think it's fair to say the market value of three years of Claudio would be $25+ million Would any team in the league purchase a non-first-round draft pick for the difference between that and whatever we will be paying Claudio via arbitration? (Keep in mind he is presumably undervalued via arbitration because of his unorthodox pitching style)

Lowrie on a 2-year deal would be solid. Slightly favors LHP in his career so even in 2020 he could ease Hiura in at 2B while splitting time with Shaw at 3B.

Only makes sense if the front office needs to clear Anderson's salary to sign somebody better. Otherwise why are we selling low on a potentially useful SP.

If this means Bauers has to play 1B/DH more often, it just creates another OF opening for Cleveland. Would be nice if they really liked one of Thames, Santana, or Broxton.

We went almost $400,000 over slot to sign Turang. "Rarely" And we managed to do that without having a second pick in the top 50. But anyway, I'll stop clogging up the thread. It's just so disappointing to find many posters on a Brewer fan forum the most pessimistic about a player acquisition in a manner totally divorced from objective statistics.

In order to generate "extra bonus pool money", they have to draft a player that isn't worth that slot. They have to draft a player that is more like #60 in order to sign him for below-slot value to generate extra money to sign other picks. What's the track record for the #60 overall selection in the draft? Micah Bello was the #73 pick in the draft. In order to generate the $275K in "extra bonus pool money", they had to pick a guy who signed for $550K which is the #102 slot value. They got a late 3rd round value player, not a late 2nd round value player. Baseball America had Bello ranked #121 overall. They don't get the #39 player in the draft and extra bonus pool money. They get either the #39 player, or a lower-rated player and extra bonus pool money. Uhh no. They could have a guy ranked like 15th on their board that falls to around 27 or wherever we're picking and use the bonus slot from 40 to draft him and pay him extra. You would have to go cheaper later in the draft but you could potentially get a player much higher on your board than you would otherwise be able to without that draft slot. Underslot savings are rarely used on the first round pick. The only possible benefit in terms of slot value is if we totally punted on the #40 pick and then hoped to sign a longshot high schooler later in the draft (but not an elite one, because the entire #40 slot value is insufficient to tempt those kind of guys). Makes little sense. I think the value of the pick was purely in the best-on-the-board prospect they would have drafted there.

(And in 2017, Claudio had a .294 wOBAA vs. RHB. Obviously Stearn thinks that's closer to his true talent level, rather than his BABIP inflated 2018 numbers. That is supported by his peripherals remaining solid.)

Not really. A LOOGY is a guy who is unusable against RHB and thus tends to pitch 0.1 IP or 0.2 IP per appearance. Claudio has a career .340 wOBAA vs. RHB, which means he is below average against them but makes up for it by dominating LHB. Virtually all pitchers have similar issues. To use one example, Archie Bradley had a .341 wOBAA vs. RHB last season. I doubt you will find many people who consider him anything other than a plus reliever.

vs RHP .313/.357/.440 You can try to sugarcoat it all you want but with those numbers, he is 100% a LOOGY. 2016-2018 175 G, 202.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR That's not a LOOGY, that's a solid back-of-the-bullpen reliever. That fact that he dominates LHB only adds to his value for our bullpen, much like Hader.

Everybody else in the world seems to love this trade for us. Perhaps fans overvalue their own team's draft picks. It's fun to dream about finding Mike Trout at pick #40 but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. And Claudio is not just a LOOGY, by the way. I suspect Stearns is hoping for 80 quality innings from him, even if he's a necessary weapon to have against tough LHB.

Steamer cannot deal with unorthodox pitchers like Claudio who rely on GB% rather than K/9. And are you assuming a $4M/WAR rate? Seems extremely low.

You never know if any reliever is going to have a good season. That's the nature of relievers which is why I hate trading for them. Knebel went from one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017 to a pumpkin for most of 2018. Blake Treinen was banished from the Nats in 2017 and was the best reliever in baseball in 2018. Adam Ottavino went from negative fWAR in 2017 to one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018. Yes, but they're still 10x more reliable than draft picks

Luis Avilan had a higher fWAR than Claudio last year and is available for only money. I CAN PLAY THIS GAME TOO! Gee, if only there were professional front offices who have a better handle on whether 2017 Claudio or 2018 Claudio was more reflective of his talent level

Claudio was worth 1.7 fWAR and saved 11 games in 2017. By comparison, Jeffress last season was worth 1.8 fWAR. Show me where a LHP with that upside is waiting around on the scrap heap the week before Spring Training

If we had a strong farm I would agree that this trade makes a lot of sense. We just don’t anymore though. Few picks outside of the first round will ever pan out. I would agree with you if we had just traded a top-15 pick but this isn't the NFL. Plus we have lucked into an amazing window with Yelich/Cain. I don't really care about a draft pick who, if he does better than most, could give us the same performance as Claudio 5 years from now.

Stearns commits highway robbery and adds a much needed LHRP and people and complaining about a draft pick Claudio has a 2.70 FIP, 2.72 xFIP against LHB

37 year old Charlie Morton versus 33 year old Lance Lynn sounds like a tossup to me. I'm glad the Brewers didn't do this, don't get me wrong

Lynn wasn't bad last year. This seems reasonable for a 31-year-old proven SP.

He has a bunch of double digit negative DRS seasons. I think that qualifies as "terrible." In his defense I would not classify him as "the worst fielding second baseman ever." Yeah, he's not good, but I don't consider that terrible especially in light of more favorable metrics like UZR. Adjusted for playing time he's roughly equivalent to Scooter Gennett, as a reference point. DRS also thinks Villar is a competent defender, for what it's worth

I think Brett Anderson is a guy who will be underpriced and could put up an out of nowhere season for us. Plus he's a lefty.

I'd be surprised to see the Brewers pick anybody unless there's a quality LOOGY lurking out there. Tyler Jay seems like the LHP with the strongest prospect pedigree.

From what I remember, deferred salary is around 5 million. Also, do not forget performance incentives which likely will add. I think we are pretty close to $100 million right now. Deferred salary does not factor into this year's payroll though, that's the whole point of deferring it. I'd have to look back again but the I think only players who have fairly certain performance bonuses (i.e. not incentives like winning MVP) are Anderson, Albers, and Jeffress, and even then we're talking probably less than a $1 million combined. We're at least $6 million under $100 million, and that's assuming some iffy contracts (like Kratz) make it through the start of the season.