JosephC

According to YES Network, the international pool money is for the period that starts on July 2. http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20180615&content_id=281386168&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb Whitmer was a $7500 college senior pick/signing. It will be interesting to see how this player progresses. Can't say I'm too crazy about trading away pool money this early in the process. But on the other hand, I tend to really like 22:2 strikeout to walk ratios. Have to keep in mind that, as a college senior, he was probably matching up against a lot of hitters that were significantly younger.

From the Angel's perspective, I'd do that deal. Lose 2+ years of Simmons, but gain 3+ years of Shaw and 4+ years of Guerra. Throw in a solid top 100 prospect in Burnes and another prospect in Ray that is probably just bubbling under the top 100. In addition to getting Cozart off third base, it would also add a big left-handed bat to the Angel's lineup, which might be a necessity depending on how Otani's elbow responds. Pro-rating this partial season to a full season, and the average WAR (Baseball Reference, Fangraphs) for Simmons would extrapolate out to 7.35. Do the same thing with Shaw and his WAR would be 5.3. So a difference of approximately 2 WAR. Interestingly enough, if calculating the average WAR from 2016-2018, Simmons is at 5.6 per season and Shaw would be at 3.6 per season...the same 2 WAR difference. Simmons has more value than Shaw, but since Shaw is controlled for an extra season, I think the difference in value between the two players is closer than what most people would realize. From the Brewer's perspective, there is no way I would do the deal. Aguilar at third base everyday? Maybe Miller fans would like it, because one logical way to fill third base would be to move Villar there and then have Miller play everyday at second base (despite the good thinks management has said about Villar's improvement at second). But yeah, no way to I take Shaw's bat out of the lineup PLUS remove Guerra from the rotation PLUS give up two of the organization's top 6 prospects.

If the Brewers were willing to part with Travis Shaw, I could maybe see the Angels moving Simmons. Cozart's bat plays way down at third base, and while he'd be a step down from Simmons with the glove, Cozart would still be a good shortstop defensively. Angels would lose some "hit" and OBP when swapping Simmons' bat for Shaw's bat, but they would gain in SLG. I don't think any trade would work without Shaw, and obviously the Brewers would need to add more into this deal. I'm thinking the Angels would be looking for another starter with Ohtani's elbow problems, so they probably ask for Peralta or maybe Woodruff. If they would be looking for a reliever, Taylor Williams seems like the best match for both sides. They will be looking for MLB pieces first, and maybe prospects to round out the back of the package. Cozart did just go on the DL and I haven't bothered to check how serious his injury is. If he is back healthy and playing 2 weeks from now, it's something that's fun to at least kick around.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/rays-miller-upset-at-move-off-shortstop/2287887 "Extremely disappointed," Miller said. "Obviously, I'm a shortstop. I've been working hard and doing everything they ask and playing well there, and (Monday) was kind of a punch to the gut, them telling me he's our shortstop now." Miller will move to first base. He could also see time in the outfield. He said the team did not mince words when telling him the reason behind the move. "They said him playing shortstop was our best chance to win," Miller said. Miller, whose 16 home runs as a shortstop are a franchise record, entered Tuesday's game tied for third among AL shortstops with 13 errors. His .959 fielding percent ranked last. "I understand the disappointment with him, but we're constantly going to make decisions that are going to improve our entire club," manager Kevin Cash said. "We can't just focus on an individual. I understand where he is coming from, I appreciate it, but at the same time we feel we're going to be a better defense with this new alignment." https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/the-mariners-opening-day-shortstop-in-2014-and-2015-brad-miller-is-designated-for-assignment-before-the-seattle-series/ "Although he is capable of playing all four infield positions and even left field, Miller had become a defensive liability at almost all of them.

Hiura really doesn't figure into the equation. Very, very, very unlikely he is added to the 25 man roster this year. Will not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December. Could easily be added to the 25 man roster in 2019 but likely won't happen at the beginning of the season. If one starts talking about May 2019, then there is a good possibility that one or two players have hit the 60-day DL and are not counted on the 40-man roster, but a more likely scenario is that Hiura eventually replaces someone else who played themselves off the 25 and 40 man rosters. I see no reason to worry about finding room for him now.

I think the Chapman deal was a terrible deal for Chicago and I personally know Cub fans who think the same thing. When that trade was made, the Cubs had a 59-39 record and the .602 winning percentage was the best in baseball. They had a 7 game lead which was the largest lead in any of the divisions. They were +149 in runs scored and had badly underperformed versus their pythW-L% which stood at a fairly staggering .657. They were going to the playoffs with or without Chapman, so the Chapman deal was based on playoff performance alone. Chapman was solid but unspectacular in the playoffs. 3.45 playoff ERA (up from the 1.55 ERA he produced duing the regular season), 1.09 playoff WHIP (up from 0.86), 12.1 K/9 (down from 14.0), 3.4 BB/9 (up from 2.8). Those aren't bad numbers by any stretch, but a reliever posting a 3.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP is definitely, without question, not worth trading a top 10 prospect (plus more) in all of baseball for. But I think the thing that truly defined this trade was Chapman's line in game seven of the World Series: A. Chapman (W, BS) 1 1/3 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 home run allowed He may have been credited with the win, but he entered the game with 2 outs in the eighth and one runner on first base with the Cubs holding a 6-3 lead. Next two batters doubled and homered and Chapman had given up a three run lead just two batters into his performance in the seventh game of the World Series. Eventually bailed out by the offense, there is no other way to put it...Chapman flopped in the situation he was brought in for. This was a bad trade for the Cubs.

I pretty much agree. My 40 man after the season made up of current Brewers (+1) would be: Pitchers (17) = Matt Albers, Chase Anderson, Jacob Barnes, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Davies, Marcos Diplan, Junior Guerra, Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Jeremy Jeffress, Dan Jennings, Corey Knebel, Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Brett Suter, Taylor Williams, Brandon Woodruff Catchers (3) = Jacob Nottingham, Manny Pina, CATCHER (*) Infielders (7) = Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia, Mauricio Dubon, Hernan Perez, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar Outfielders (6) = Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Lorenzo Cain, Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Christian Yelich That means the following are off the 40-man: Pitchers (4) = Boone Logan, Jorge Lopez, Wade Miley, Aaron Wilkerson Catcher (2) = Erik Kratz, Stephen Vogt Infielders (4) = Nick Franklin, Brad Miller (**), Tyler Saladino, Eric Sogard (*) - Can't just depend on two catchers on the 40-man roster to start off the season. So I adding in CATCHER to count that spot for whomever the third catcher would be. (**) - Miller could play his way into the mix, but to offer him a contract in arbitration next season would guarantee him an absolute minimum of 3.6 million but he would likely wind up with a contract in the 5.5 to 5.75 million dollar range which is a pretty big number. I think it's pretty likely he will not be offered arbitration. As far as the Brewers adding veteran players by free agency or trade, that would likely push other players off the 25 man roster (Perez being an example) which would push that player off the 40 man roster. So I don't think any of those additions impacts the final numbers I have above. I've added the third catcher which is necessary, but any notable adds just subtracts off players like Hernan Perez, Keon Broxton, etc. So I have 33 on the 40 man which give me seven openings. I'd add the following: Pitcher = Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, Cody Ponce, Trey Supak, Quintin Torres-Costa Infielder = Jake Gatewood Outfielder = Troy Stokes Jr These guys are not added for the following reasons: -Bubba Derby = Sounds like his secondary stuff is still pretty fringy so he projects as a MLB reliever. Not an overpowering fastball. If the reports I've read are accurate, it sounds like Derby's best outcome is an average middle reliever. -Jon Perrin = I personally like Perrin and think he could be a sleeper as a solid #4 starter or a plus-plus starter/reliever swingman. But as time goes on it seems the Brewers see him more and more as a reliever. If that's the case, he probably gets used in a Jorge Lopez type role and I don't think I'd use a 40-man spot on him this off-season. -Nate Griep = I've seen some reports questioning his stuff and wondering how it will play at the major league level. Not so sure of the legitimacy of that, or how much of that comes from a mediocre showing in the Arizona Fall League last year. He has piled up 75 saves in the Brewer's system, but it doesn't sound like he projects as a closer at the MLB level and is likely middle reliever quality. -Phil Bickford = Considering his recent history, would you draft him and dedicate a 25-man roster spot to him for a good chunk of the regular season? Miguel Diaz was the type of non-ready, flyer pick but he didn't have nearly the off-the-field baggage that Bickford does. He has the talent to be a Rule 5 pick, but I have no problem with gambling and leaving him off the 40. He probably needs a couple more years of development time and if another team wants to clog up a spot on their 40 man roster for the next couple of seasons then they are welcome to do so. Would love to retain him, and if he has a good 2019 then he might be worth a 40 man spot. So there is only one problem that I see. This currently blocks Corbin Burnes (not Rule 5 eligible until December 2019) from a 40 man spot. So if I want to add him to the 40 man roster some time this year, then I have one spot I need to clear. One spot, only one spot. So I agree with Wildcat, I just don't think it's a huge issue.

Tough break for him and the Brewers. He's already missed two weeks, have to wonder if he is a candidate for the 60-day DL if the Brewers find they need another spot on the 40-man roster.

I mean it would be nice to have Herrera in the bullpen, but why would we use trade capital for a high-end RP when we have one of the best bullpens in baseball and lots of needs elsewhere?? If the reliever was another high-end lefty I would be all for it. Having another big-time lefty in the pen would give the Brewers the flexibility to use Hader as an "opener" later in the season. And if they could pick up a quality lefty with control past this season, then it makes it that much easier to move Hader into the rotation starting next season if that's something they are thinking about. If I'm in Stearns chair and call the Padres about Ross, and they insist on Hiura, then I throw out Ross and Hand and see where that leads. If Knebel gets on track, having him plus Hader plus Jeffress plus Hand would just be flat out wicked. Ross would likely just serve as a rental, but Hand would be under team control through 2021.

Dude, NFL mini-camp is going on. Bigger fish to fry. Good point. I don't know why I went to ESPN to check out this type of sport's story as it's not really newsworthy. I am well aware that ESPN's sports news is largely limited to: "football player accused of 2007 sexual assult" "basketball player trash-talks another basketball player" "Vegas bookies avoid disaster with outcome of last nights game" "President irks big-name athlete with off-the-cuff remark" "overhyped amateur athlete tries to catch on in B-league"

Interesting. Reported by an ESPN reporter but it's not on the front page of ESPN's site, and not even on ESPN's baseball webpage.

Terrible news.

Exactly ... they aren't going to add another crap #3-4 starter like Ross or Straily because it's redundant. If they needed that, they'd just hand the ball to Woodruff or Burnes or any other of 4-5 guys they have in the system. No, if they make a move for a starting pitcher, it's going to be someone big. And it's going to cost a lot. Guess I'd have to disagree about Tyson Ross simply being a back end starter. As a MLB starter this season, Ross has posted a pretty solid 3.43 ERA/1.24 WHIP this season and Woodruff sits at 6.32 ERA/1.53 WHIP. Who knows what Burnes would do? It's too bad Ross got hurt as he really seemed to be an emerging star. All-Star in 2014 and Baseball Reference has him as a 3.5 WAR player in 2015. Injury pretty much ruined the next two seasons. Fastball velocity is down from where it was at his prime but it looks like he's learned to live without it. This year he has a 3.67 ERA at home and a 3.24 ERA on the road.

Really not an issue with Hendricks IMO. He's not a big strikeout pitcher so it would be expected that his FIP would be behind his ERA. So far in his career his ERA is more than 0.50 less than his FIP, so he has a considerable history of outpitching his FIP. Don't see it as an issue for him and I wouldn't expect a performance drop-off unless he suffers an injury. Lester's 3.98 FIP is still a pretty solid number. The 2.22 ERA is not sustainable but I don't think he'll blow up to a 4.00 ERA this year either. From this point forward I'd expect the ERA to go up, the FIP to drop and he'll probably end up in the low 3's for ERA at the end of the year which is more than good enough. Chatwood is the guy they should be worried about because his WHIP is bad and his walk rate is ridiculously bad. No way he will sustain a sub-4 ERA if those numbers continue. His BABIP number is better than league average but not crazy and could be sustainable. The HR/FB ratio is low, and if that corrects with as many guys as he's been walking, then the ERA will balloon rather quickly. I'm actually somewhat shocked that Chatwood's FIP is as low as it is when considering the walks, but he's done a pretty good job (or has just been lucky) of avoiding the home run ball.

If this is a CBA issue, then wouldn't the responsibility actually fall on the players and their representation to negotiate better conditions for the minor league players?

Is the Cubs roster just player-to-player better? If not, then the mental or whatever issue that the Brewers are having need to be figured out. It is more than frustrating to see the results in the season series so far. It might end up not only costing the division, but a playoff spot period. The Cubs appear to have the better team on paper. And so far the performance, now through a good chunk of the season, makes the Cubs look like a better team. Runs per game: Cubs = 5.05 Brewers = 4.33 Obviously not even close here. We all know about the Brewer problems at the bottom of the lineup, and unfortunately the bottom of the lineup is not just limited to the 7-9 spots in the order. 40% of the way into the season, playing what is probably the best team in the division, and Hernan Perez is batting fifth in the lineup. .252/.274/.361/.636 batting fifth. Meanwhile the worst performers of the top 8 in at-bats for the Cubs are Addison Russell (.708 OPS is the lowest OPS but is offset by a more than good enough .341 OBP), Javier Baez (.286 OBP is by far the worst OBP of the top 8, but he's on pace for 35 home run season and is OPS'ing .807) and Jason Heyward (the big bad contract for the Cubs is still slashing a respectable .281/.339/.421/.760). Starters ERA: Cubs = 3.49 Brewers = 4.12 Ignoring the numbers, and just looking at the rosters on paper, and this would appear to be the biggest mismatch between the two teams. And so far the performances have backed that up. Even terrible starts by Quintana and Darvish have not been enough to make this comparison close. So far ERA's stack up as: Lester = 2.22, Hendricks = 3.48, Chatwood = 3.86, Quintana = 4.09, Darvish = 4.95 and Montgomery has pitched to a starter's ERA of 1.02 when having to fill in for Darvish. Chatwood has an ugly 1.78 WHIP to go along with Darvish's 4.95 ERA but otherwise the Cub's rotation appears solid. Meanwhile the Brewer rotation ERA's stack up as: Guerra = 2.71, Chacin = 3.58, Anderson= 4.57, Suter = 4.82, Davies = 5.23. And the 6th player with the most starts after those 5 is Woodruff, and in his four starts he has a 6.32 ERA. Bullpen ERA: Brewers = 2.70 Cubs = 2.73 This is where the Brewers will have an advantage over most teams, but with the Cubs it's almost a push. Top 8 Brewer relievers in appearances: -Jeffress = 0.55 ERA, 0.77 WHIP -Hader = 1.22 WHIP, 0.70 WHIP -Barnes = 2.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP -Williams = 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP -Jennings = 3.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP -Albers = 3.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP -Knebel = 4.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP -Logan = 4.82 ERA, 1.93 WHIP Top 8 Cub relievers in appearances: -Morrow = 1.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP -Cishek = 1.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP -Strop = 1.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP -Wilson = 2.28 ERA, 1.34 WHIP -Edwards = 2.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP -Duensing = 4.05 ERA, 1.55 WHIP -Farrell = 4.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP -Montgomery = 5.33 ERA, 1.46 WHIP Brewers may have an advantage with Jeffress/Hader over Morrow/Cishek, but even that doesn't figure to be a great advantage long-term because Morrow and Cishek are quality relievers. Outside of that there really is not great advantage for Milwaukee when stacking up the remainder of the relievers, but it would help if Knebel gets on a roll like he was on last season.

You guys really think Brad Miller can get the majority of starts at shortstop for the Brewers? I just don't see it. Defensive aspect is just too strong to ignore and while Miller would definitely bring a better bat, it's not likely that he will OPS .850+ (but possible considering the way Sogard hit last season). I guess I always put more stock into what teams actually do rather than the talk that comes out of the mouths of GMs/managers. The Rays could have kept Miller as a versatile defensive player that provided some pop off the bench. Instead, once 1B/DH was filled with Bauers/Cron, they opted to trade Miller and even kick in some money to get him off their roster. The commentary from the Tampa end pretty much reads that once they made the committment to Bauer at 1B, that they had no place for Miller to play (even though he has played all over the diamond). Meanwhile they pick up Choi, another player that fits best at 1B/DH but will likely get looks in left field because their outfield production has been awful (and it's easier to live with bad defense in left instead of bad defense in the middle infield). To me this trade looks like one insurance policy for another. Two bench players. Miller gets some "low leverage" innings around the infield and is a primary insurance policy in case Villar is injured or goes down the drain performance-wise. Choi gets some innings in left field to see if his defense can meet the very lowest minimum standard but if not he's an insurance policy in case Bauers flops or Bauers/Cron gets injured. Both teams likely hoping to luck out and stumble across a hot bat for a 6-8 week stretch. That's pretty much how I see this trade.

How aggressive will Stearns be at the deadline? Depends on who he's willing to move. To be in the mix for the big names he'd have to be willing to part with Hiura, Burnes, Peralta. I don't see the other MiLB assets having great value at this point. There certainly should be teams out their that view Woodruff and Ray as valuable assets, but would that apply to the same teams that have assets the Brewers want? It could easily be argued that Peralta really belongs in the Woodruff/Ray group rather than the Hiura/Burnes group. If Stearns isn't willing to move Hiura/Burnes and maybe Peralta, it would really be hard for him to appear to be aggressive because competing teams will likely be able to throw out more attractive packages. Unforunately I think most of the Brewers "third tier" of prospects just won't be that attractive on the market today. Erceg, Phillips, Grisham, Dubon (due to injury) just have lost too much of their luster. I don't think risers like Supak and Brown have done enough to have made the jump into that "third tier" group. Stearns may have the motivation to make the big splash, but I'm not sure if he has the MiLB ammo at this point.

It's not a "spin" at all. What I said is literally true. He was a slightly above average defender 2 years at SS, slightly below average, and well below average one year. For the record, even though my post followed yours, it was not intended to be a direct response to you. Just got the feeling from reading through the thread that the defensive considerations were being minimized.

No reason trying to spin Miller's defense into anything other than being bad. Defensive metrics for him are poor regardless of position (even 1B). From 2015-2018 he's been a .239/.319/.420/.738 hitter who would average 20 home runs when adjusted to 162 games. It all comes down to if the evaluator thinks that those offensive numbers outweighs the bad defense.

How bout 2B? In 1224 2/3 MLB innings, Villar has posted a 0 DRS and -9.2 UZR/150 while playing second base. In 1011 MLB innings, Miller has posted a -8 DRS and -13.4 UZR/150. So the defensive metrics have Villar as a better defensive second baseman than Miller. Miller has the reputation of being a subpar defensive player no matter where he plays and the defensive metrics seem to back that up. Hasn't been mentioned yet, but Miller performs poorly against left handed pitching. This year has slashed .265/.286/.353/.639 against lefties, which is a bit of a step up from the .228/.290/.330/.620 from 2015-2017. I think the trade is pretty odd. Miller seems like he'd be a decent enough candidate to platoon with Villar, but the need for two legitimate shortstops will make it difficult for the Brewers to fit Miller on the 25 man roster. To me it looks like he's here strictly to protect against another injury. It's also unlikely the Brewers would make a committment to him past this year as if he is offered arbitration at year's end he would be guaranteed to make a minimum of 3.6 million in 2019.

As the season progresses, it looks more and more like the starting pitching is what will need an upgrade. Brewers sit at 8th in the NL in runs/game, 9th in starting pitching ERA and 1st in relief pitching ERA. So more bats or starting pitching? What is really a concern is that the xFIP for Brewer starters is 4.58, and that's the second worst mark in the NL (just barely behind the Marlins - 4.62). Now maybe Stearns will think Miley and Peralta will fix that down the road, but it's hard for me to think any analytics guy would look at the current number and not be concerned about it.

Not necessarily this year but definitely something to think about in the future. If starters are only averaging about 80 pitches per inning, it just makes sense to subtract five off that total and eliminate the weakest link from the equation. For the record, so far this year: Chacin = 82.5 pitches per start Anderson = 88.5 pitches per start Suter = 85.5 pitches per start Guerra = 89.1 pitches per start Davies = 92.3 pitches per start So currently the Brewer starters are well over the 80-85 pitch mark. But if that total starts falling the later it gets into the season, I think it's a legitimate discussion for next year.

162 games / 5 starters = 32.4 starts * 95 pitches per start = 3078 pitches 162 games / 4 starters = 40.5 starts. 3078 pitches / 40.5 starts = 76 pitches per start. If pitchers are getting pulled consistently before the 85 pitch mark, then it makes sense to remove the weakest link in the rotation and just go down to a 4-man rotation. Since the Brewers seem to be in favor of a 13-man pitching staff, that gives them 9 relievers which would give Counsell tremendous flexibility when navigating the 5th/6th innings of ballgames.

Not complaining about taking a hitter there, but I'm pretty convinced at this point that Stearns sees bats being safer investments and so all big acquisitions will be hitters. Just look at the history. All of the first picks have been hitters. All the top international signings are hitters. Biggest trade so far has been for a hitter (Yelich). Biggest free agent acquisition has been for a hitter (Cain). Can't argue with it too much, as history shows that bats are normally a safer investment and this team is in the smallest market. Really wanted McClanahan there but I like Turang too. Not really concerned about him filling out that frame. Power not really a concern for me when talking about a middle infielder. If the guy plays good defense at shortstop and becomes a plus on-base guy, that's more than enough to be a really good major league player.