JosephC

Just completed surfing around the Orioles website, the Baltimore Sun and the Orioles message boards and this is the information that's out there. 1. The Orioles want two controllable starters. (beat writer on the Orioles own website) 2. Yesterday the Orioles liked the offers in the following order: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies (from the Baltimore Sun) 3. Word around Baltimore is that the controllable starters need to be MLB ready AND have to be pre-arbitration starting 2019, which would take a candidate like Davies out of the mix (Orioles message board) The Diamondbacks are apparently still in the mix so the Brewers must have increased the offer in the last 24 hours in order to jump them. Woodruff seems like a natural fit. Not sure if the Brewers can come up with a second pitcher that fits the bill. Peralta really can't be traded at this point since he's a rotation piece. IMO including Burnes is giving up too much for a rental. Ortiz most of the other Brewer pitching prospects are not MLB ready IMO. Is it possible that the Orioles see Houser as starter long-term? If so, he could be the second pitching piece. Hard for me to believe Suter would be attractive to an AL East team, but I guess he can't be completely ruled out. I am certainly getting the vibe that the Orioles want to move Machado early and the first team that throws out two pitchers that meet the criteria will probably land him. I would assume the Dodgers have put Dennis Santana on the table. Caleb Ferguson (or maybe Brock Stewart) could be candidates here as well. To me it looks like the Dodgers have slightly better second pieces than Milwaukee (although I'd take Woodruff over Santana, etc) so that might give them the advantage.

I think this is real close, a situation where player #2 determines if it's an overpay by Milwaukee or not. IMO, Woodruff and Stokes plus a fringe prospect is what <3 months of Machado should go for. Ortiz seems like too much...Diplan seems pretty reasonable for both sides IMO. Then it comes down to if the Dodgers want to trump the Brewer's offer. They are much deeper in the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier and could easily outbid a non-Hiura/Burnes/Peralta package.

Just disappointed that all those $$$$'s have been tied up in what is now a virtually worthless player.

Those innings Houser threw yesterday were wasted innings IMO. Would have been much better throwing those in a Brewer uniform instead of Zagurski. Roster shuffle really getting annoying, although I do like the moves made today. Although it is disappointing to see the big-money man back on the DL yet again.

I'm assuming Burnes is working out of the pen since he's gone 2 innings of less in each of his last 6 outings? If so, really odd to use the 40-man spot on him (which will occupy one spot this off-season) considering Adrian Houser has been rock solid out of the bullpen.

IMO Verdugo should probably be off the table in a deal for just Machado. But I certainly don't think having Alvarez in that deal is unreasonable. The scouting reports on Alvarez at the end of last year were terrible. He can't throw anything off-speed in the strike zone, and every fastball he threw ended up right down the middle and minor leaguers were having no trouble hitting those fastballs. Then he came out this year and posted a 20 BB/17 K ratio before getting hurt and then sent out to rehab in rookie ball (where he showed he can get age 18 players out). I think a fair deal with the Dodgers would involve the Orioles getting 2 of the following 4 players: D.J. Peters, Yadier Alvarez, Dustin May, Gavin Lux.

I would guess that just every GM would place pretty minimal value on Santana at this point. Look at what the Brewers are doing, another start for Hernan Perez at a corner outfield spot and another start hitting 5th in the lineup. Perez is hitting .246/.273/.385/.658. And Santana rots in the minors (where he is being out-OPS'ed by Arcia currently). Santana doesn't have the look of a player that other teams would be interest in acquiring. I have to give Erceg a little credit, at least he finally got that seasonal OBP above .300. But as a minor leaguer, in over 1150 plate appearances, his slash line is .272/.325/.428/.754 as a corner infielder. No way should he be getting any consideration as a top 200 prospect at this point. If he doesn't step it up at the plate, I don't think it would be unreasonable to drop him from a "top 10 organizational prospect" to "role player prospect" at the end of the year. I haven't given up on him, but he's not someone I'd place much value on if making a trade. The guy has underachieved at the plate for a solid 1.5 years now. Scouting reports I read on Bubba Derby still indicate his upside is a long-relief guy. He has to be considered a fringe-prospect and nothing more. If I'm the Royals GM, a proposal of Merrifield for Erceg/Santana/Derby is an easy, easy pass.

Not saying that getting rid of Boone Logan was a mistake. But Logan at his worst is better than Zagurski.

Brewers get: C-Wilson Ramos Rays get: OF-Troy Stokes RHP-Trey Supak

Wait to see what the reliever market is like. The 2016 reliever market was crazy. 2017 was much different. I still think the 2016 market was an aberration and we won't see those types of prices for relievers again during the next few years. Time will tell on that.

I'd be interested to see what Escobar goes for. I'd guess a fair price would be about 10-12 million in surplus value, which would probably equate to a couple better "role-player" prospects. IMO fair deals would be something like: -Escobar for Zack Brown and Jake Gatewood -Escobar for Trey Supak and Troy Stokes Just have to wonder if Escobar is at the tail end of a hot streak. His slash line is .274/.331/.524/.856. From 2015-2017 his slash line was .251/.301/.415/.716. His month-to-month stats this year show some variance, but the worst full month was May and he posted a respectable .241/.305/.426/.731 that month. Defense at shortstop would easily be the biggest obstacle. -7 DRS in only 185 2/3 innings which is horrible and a -15.2 UZR/150 is also really bad.

6 weeks ago I was the biggest fan of sticking with Villar and giving him a solid month to sink or swim. Last 30 days = .203/.244/.338/.582. Time to pull the plug and move Miller to 2B which is an easy move considering his defensive deficiencies. Kind of bums me out because I really wanted to see Orf get a chance. SS still a glaring hole on this roster. Don't mind giving Saladino a chance but that track record with the White Sox is just too ugly to ignore (.231/.281/.330/.610 in 863 plate appearances). Of the options out there right now I probably like Iglesias best when the price-tag is factored in. He's only hit .259/.300/.359/.660 over the last two season. Obviously not pretty but it's considerably better than what Saladino did during his time with the White Sox and is obviously way better than the .204/.255/.298/.553 slash line that the Brewers have gotten out of the shortstop position. Iglesias is solid defensively, no issues there. If teamed together, hopefully one of Iglesias and Saladino would get hot offensively at the right time of the season. Iglesias would probably be considered good for about 0.6 WAR over the rest of the season which would put his value at about 5.5 million, then subtract the approximate 3 million he's owed and the surplus value is only 2.5 million. Should only cost one fringe prospect and probably not a better one at that. Return is probably similar to what the Mets got for Neil Walker last year (Eric Hanhold). All that said, I'm still not a big fan of Iglesias and would be waiting until the tail end of the month before making a move like this...just to see if anything else pops up.

Sending Gray down makes zero sense to me. Sure the guy's ERA was ugly, but at the same time he has an excellent 2.80 xFIP. The hard hit ball percentage has gone up but not to the extent where it would explain an extremely flukey .386 BABIP. He's striking out 4+ batters for every 1 walk allowed. Everything I see indicates this is a guy you just leave in the rotation and let him pitch his way through it. Have to think there is something more at play here. Maybe a work ethic thing or something that really doesn't have anything to do with Gray himself? The Rockies have been a big disappointment, maybe management wanted to send a message to the team? Based on the peripherals, I'm guessing if he were made available that there would be somewhere around 29 other MLB teams that would have major interest.

Zagurski's MLB stats prior to the one Brewer appearance. 75 1/3 innings pitched, 7.05 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.11 FIP, 61 ERA+

With Villar going in the tank offensively in June, Stearns should be focusing on shortstop and that would allow him to slide Miller to second base. I don't think it's even necessary to find a shortstop that is a plus-hitter for the position. They have dealt with .193/.243/.279/.522 out of that position so far...even a good defensive shortstop that could OPS .675+ would be a significant upgrade.

Have to wait until Turang signs (or doesn't sign).

From the top talent it does. Agreed, bottom 5 minor league system if these trades are made. No question about it. Kicker is that the Brewers wouldn't even be filling the biggest need at shortstop, unless there are folks out there that don't think Miller's defense at SS won't come back to bite this team in the rear end.

Granted they are small sample sizes, but so far this season Adrian Houser has an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.78 out of the Brewer's pen. Woodruff has an ERA of 2.35 and WHIP of 0.78 out of the Brewer's pen. The "fresh arm" foolishness has backfired in back to back days against a last place team. Stearns, figure out the best 7 or 8 options for the bullpen and tell Counsell that's what has to work with and stick with it until guys like Houser and Woodruff show that they can't do the job.

During the last couple weeks I've taken just a couple looks at the New York papers and they are already talking about Jacob deGrom like he is a member of the Yankees. But just for kicks I decided to include him here. Syndergaard's Baseball Reference WARs = 5.0 (2016), 0.6 (2017), 3.0 (doubled to represent full season). Fangraphs = 6.4, 1.4, 3.8 (doubled to represent full season). Three year average between the two = 3.4 WAR. Not going to duplicate all the math here, but assuming 1 WAR = 9.16 million (2018), = 9.80 million (2019), = 10.49 million (2020), = 11.22 million (2021) and crediting Syndergaard for 1.7 WAR for the remainder of 2018 and then at 3.4 WAR for each season from 2019-2021, that would put his value at 122.706 million. He'll make about 1.49 million for the rest of this season, and my arbitration guesses for him for the remaining three seasons would be 6.0 million, 9.6 million, 13.5 million for a total of 30.59 million. 122.706-30.59 = 92.116 in surplus value for 3.5 years of Syndergaard. deGrom's Baseball Reference WARs = 3.5 (2016), 4.4 (2017), 10.0 (doubled to represent full season). Fangraphs = 3.2, 4.4, 7.8 (doubled to represent full season). Three year average between the two = 5.6 WAR. Then doing the math, same as above with Syndergaard, I have deGrom having a value of 139.272 million. Considering the season he is having I think his arbitration numbers push into that upper strastophere. He'll earn 3.7 million for the rest of this season, then I'd project him to make 13.3 million and 21 million in the next two years of arbitration. Totals earnings = 38 million. 139.272 - 38 = 101.272 million in surplus value. The obvious issue when dealing with Syndergaard is the injury factor. No doubt that the Mets (especially the Mets) will want to be compensated like Syndergaard will be healthy and pitch like a 5-6 annual WAR pitcher over the next 3.5 years. But using the numbers I have above, he is already being valued at 90+ million dollars. Personally, I really do think the 3.4 WAR number for Syndergaard is fair. It presents a good balance between the high upside and the downside associated with the injury factor. IMO examples of a fair deal for Syndergaard would be: -Syndergaard for Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Trent Grisham -Syndergaard for Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Corey Ray, Luis Ortiz -Syndergaard for Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Luis Ortiz, Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood And in the interst of full disclosure, I'd have the following surplus values assigned to each of the prospects named above: -Keston Hiura = 43.73 million -Corbin Burnes = 18.9 million -Freddy Peralta = 18.9 million -Corey Ray = 11.45 million -Luis Ortiz = 11.45 million -Trent Grisham = 8.59 million -Zack Brown = 8.59 million -Jake Gatewood = 5.72 million

I'm off the Syndergaard bandwagon because players on the DL cannot help the team. Syndergaard has made 13 starts in the last 14 months. Latest injury was a "strained finger ligament" and the end result of that will likely be a 6 week DL stay and 8 missed starts. No question the guy is a great pitcher when he is on the mound. But Stearns has to be very, very careful if he goes down this road.

Happ is a virtual guarantee to go for way, way, way, way more than what his surplus value suggests he should go for. The biggest problem for the Brewers is that the Happ conversation really should start with players that aren't in the top 100 but the next tier down (top 10 organizational prospects). And that particular tier of players have not looked good for Milwaukee this season. Erceg and Grisham and Lutz have not performed that well and their "trade stock" has probably dropped. Ortiz is only up to 45 innings. Dubon got hurt. The Brewers seem to like playing Thames and Perez in the outfield (Thames obviously has zero business being out there and Perez shouldn't be out there because his bat plays way, way, way down as a corner outfielder), which makes Phillips look like a big zero to the rest of the league. So that leaves two players, Peralta and Ray. Peralta has pitched himself up and out of that group and now is likely un-tradeable from the Brewer's perspective. So now we are down to just Ray. If a team likes his tools and upside then Ray's name can start a conversation. However, if a team does not like Ray's streaky nature and has questions about that bat, then the only way the Brewers can start a conversation about a highly regarded veteran guy is to dip into the Hiura/Burnes/Peralta pool.

I'd be more interested in Gray now than I was last year when he was pitching well because the price would be much, much better. His walk rate is up and that's the biggest culprit to the decreased performance. The rest of the peripherals are solid. His velocity hasn't dropped at all. K rate is about the same as it's been most of his career. BABIP is way above league average and HR/FB is slightly above the league average. His ERA is a terrible 5.44 but the xFIP is 4.30. It's not crazy to think that the metrics of a majority of MLB teams would only put his current surplus value in the 10-12 million dollar range. But the Yankees need starting pitching and trading Gray away does not help them in that area. Say they trade away Gray as one of the pieces to add a different pitcher that would be an upgrade, let's say J.H. Happ, then they would have a playoff 4-man rotation of Severino, Happ, Sabathia, Tanaka (assuming Tanaka is healthy by then) and the back end of that is just too much of a risk when looking at age/health. Domingo German just hasn't gotten the job done so far but Jonathan Loaisiga has looked good so far but it's been a very small sample size. I don't think the Yankees are really in the position to trade away Gray.

"Fresh arm" thing looks more and more questionable. Zagurski was called up on the 28th. The previous day the relievers that pitched were Jeffress (6 pitches), Hader (13 pitches) and Houser (26 pitches). The day prior to that the relievers that pitched were Jennings (28 pitchers), Barnes (17 pitches), Hader (2 pitches). So Knebel and Williams each had two days off, Barnes and Jennings each had a rest day and Jeffress went on to pitch each of the next two games so he obviously was available. They were in such need for a fresh arm that Zagurski ended up sitting on the bench for two days. Yeah, I'm sure they just brought him up in case the starter collapsed on the 28th (which was Guerra by the way, who has been pretty reliable this year), but in the end they didn't need the fresh arm because the guy spent two days on the bench and then Milwaukee ended up using him when Houser would have been a better choice. And as far as the lefty/lefty matchup, I still would have rather had Houser because Houser has the look of an actual legitimate MLB pitcher where Zagurski's track record shows that he is not.

"Fresh arm" crap backfires. Houser would have stood a much better chance in this game. Come on Stearns, put the best 8 relief options on the 25 man roster and just stick with them!!!

I don't see the Tigers arbitration eligible pushing them anywhere near 130 million. 69 on the books, and then count another 6 million for 10 pre-arbitration players. So 131 million minus the 75 million would mean they will be on the hook for 56 million dollars in arbitration eligible players? I don't see it. Castellanos will get a really nice payday. Fiers will get more than he should but will stay under the 10 million mark, and could actually be a strong non-tender candidate if his performance falls off at all in the second half. Fulmer and Boyd are first time eligibles and neither are likely to break the bank with ERA's over 4.