JosephC

I can't ever see that happening while Perez is still on the 25 man roster and Counsell is managing. Brewers have Cain, Yelich, Broxton, Santana, Phillips all healthy and on the 40 man roster and Perez is still getting outfield starts. Perez was getting outfield starts back when Braun was healthy. I think just about everybody thought that with the big outfield logjam that Perez (and Thames) wouldn't be seeing any time in the outfield this year, and yet Perez has started in the outfield a bunch of times. We just have to accept the following as Brewer fans: Craig Counsell just doesn't see Perez's career .255/.283/.388/.671 bat as being any type of significant negative. As long as Perez is on the 25 man roster, and Craig Counsell is managing the ballclub, Perez is probably going to get ~80 starts a year and a bunch of those are going to come at a corner outfield spot.

4 RBI day and a week from now Phillips will probably be back in AAA (or playing for the Orioles) and Perez will be starting in RF and hitting 5th in the lineup.

Probably the new normal with the 10-day DL.

Just to totally, 100% hijack the rest of this thread, I've seen enough out of Hader's repertoire this season to convince me that he should be in the rotation in 2019. For the record, I wanted him in the bullpen this season because I thought that was the best fit for the team. Let's see how his stuff does against MLB hitters over a long stretch of time. And the bullpen had a lot of question marks. Knebel figured to be fine. Jeffress was a big question mark. How long would it take the Brewers to work in Taylor Williams? Who was the bullpen lefty? Many of those questions have been answered and the pen looks pretty solid moving forward (provided key pieces don't get traded away). Off-season priority should be finding a bullpen lefty through free agency or trade and move Hader to the rotation. Never really anticipated that this current stretch of inactivity would be a problem...just one more reason to move him into the rotation next year.

The players that would likely be significant pieces in a fair deal for Machado would likely come out of the "top 10 organizational prospect" or "top 300" tier, and many of the Brewer prospects that were in the group at the beginning of the year have not performed all that well. Have players like Medeiros and Brown moved up into that category? Hard to tell. IMO, Medeiros would be a definite no. He's been hot lately but at the end of March he had a 4.29 ERA. At the end of June his WHIP was 1.44. And when evaluating the full MiLB resume, he's been a 4.78 ERA and 1.47 WHIP performer. Ascending prospect. Sure. Up enough to be considered a top 10 organizational prospect in an average minor league system? I don't think so. Brown, has he elevated his stock enough (from around 25'ish to begin the year) to be a "top 10 organizational prospect?" Numbers indicate maybe, scouting reports still suggest he might be a reliever long-term would would indicate probably not. I think the Phillies are much better equipped to make a deal for Machado, it just comes down to if they are willing to offer up enough to land him.

Attanasio panics and gives Stearns the order, "do whatever you have to do to get Machado." Brewers get: IF-Manny Machado Orioles get: RHP-Corbin Burnes RHP-Brandon Woodruff RHP-Jon Perrin IF-Tucker Neuhaus (as a PTBNL)

Bummer. Never know how long an injury like this will linger on for a catcher.

The Yelich/Cain acquisitions really raised the bar. Without those guys, I think the "majority opinion" would be that the Brewers are once again over-achieving but are still in the rebuilding process. With those guys, plus the fact that the Brewers had the best record in the NL through three months of the season, has really raised expectations. I think the end of 2017 is something that baseball writers and fans will focus on but really wouldn't mean that much to Stearns. I just hope Attanasio doesn't get swept up in all of that because if he does and then starts giving orders...that's when bad baseball decisions are made.

I was reading some commentary in the Post-Dispatch and the writers there also seemed to be very critical of the Cardinal's defense. Looking at total errors can be very misleading, but the fact that the Cardinals are dead last in MLB with 77 errors is pretty convincing that their defense hasn't been good (MLB median is 54). Interestingly enough, DRS has the Cardinals at a +15 which is 11th best in MLB and the UZR/150 is -1.7 which ranks them 20th, so the numbers are all over the board. Cardinal writers are obviously not impressed, and I'd trust them over anybody when it comes to the important eyeball test.

The Deadspin article is worthless because one can't trust any of the information in it due to the juvenile way it's written. It's sub-bulletin board level "journalism." "dunderheadedness" " Designated Veteran A******" "bunch of goobers" The language indicates there is no objective reporting going on here whatsoever. It might as well be The Onion. I would agree that it's inappropriate if the Cardinals are engaging in excessive frat boy like pranks and language that has gone way over the edge. But if some players are continually late for work and showing a sub-par work ethic, and other players are all over their case because of it, that's something I really don't have a problem with. This is the first season that I can ever remember where I've looked at that Cardinal team and didn't think they were at least as good as Milwaukee ON PAPER. How much that had to do with Matheny...I guess we will now find out. There just isn't that one big bat in the lineup that scares you. Matt Carpenter is a fine player, and probably should be considered an under-rated offensive player, but he's probably their best bat but really isn't an "intimidator" when he's at the plate. Their bullpen seems to be stocked with a lot of "real average" guys too. It was pretty much essential that guys like Greg Holland and Luke Gregerson come in, pitch well in established role and lay the foundation for the rest of the players but both of those pitchers have performed poorly. Unless they make some real headline acquisition at the deadline, I'd be very disappointed if the Brewers were behind the Cardinals at the end of the year because, despite the Cardinals advantage in the starting rotation, I think the Brewers have a better team.

Perez shouldn't be hitting cleanup for a AAA team.

Not good news for fans that want Machado. The Phillies have two near-ready starters in Ranger Suarez (currently in AAA) and Enyel De Los Santos (already had a MLB appearance) who have both been impressive this year. No definitive report that the Phillies are willing to give up Medina, Suarez or De Los Santos. But if the Phillies would be willing to package Medina plus one of the other two, then the Brewers would probably have to upgrade to Burnes and either Ponce or Supak just to remain in talks with Baltimore.

Ramos average WAR for 2018, between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, is 1.9. If that continues he's good for 1.4 WAR over the remainder of the season. That would put his value at 12.824 million and he's due to make approximately 3.54 million over the rest of the season. So surplus value on him is 9.284 million. I have Stokes and Supak both as "role-player prospects," value assigned to them is 5.72 million each for a total of 11.44 million. Qualifying offer does not factor into the picture because I can't see the Rays making him the qualifying offer.

I had Ramos going to Milwaukee in the prediction thread, but now it sounds like the Nationals and Astros both want him. He could very well go for more than I anticipated. In the prediction thread I had Milwaukee acquiring Ramos for Stokes and Supak.

I can still remember when local politician's here in Wisconsin exclaimed what an economic disaster it would be if the Bucks left Milwaukee for Seattle. It was very disappointing that no journalist asked them about Seattle, and why it didn't just shrivel up and die after they lost the SuperSonics.

Personally I wouldn't want to see the Brewers part with Burnes. The only good thing I can see in Burnes going to Baltimore is that it shouldn't take much more than just him. If the Brewers take Burnes and Peralta off the table (which IMO they absolutely should for only a rental), then Machado likely costs them two top 10 prospects OR a top 10 prospect and 2 more in the 11-20 range....but if it's Burnes then the package is probably just Burnes and another non-top 30 prospect. Sometimes it's better to have the quantity rather than the quality. The later it gets in the process, the more I like the team and the less inclined I am in wanting to see them make a big move. I look at the standings and not only are they in a playoff spot, but they still have the best record in the NL. Definitely don't think there should be any motivation in overpaying for any rental.

We can only hope. Time for billionaire owners and millionaire players to pay for their own damn playgrounds. That goes for Attanasio too.

The Brewers comparable is Lutz. Looking at a draft pick that in most drafts would fall in the 31-36 area. Unless there is some exceptional talent that unexpectedly drops, the 31-36 players won't be highly regarded enough to land in the top 100. Next group is "top 10 organizational prospect," so since there are 30 teams that would equate to a top 300 prospect. Probably pretty safe to say that almost all players picked in that 31-36 region would fall in that group. I have the "top 10 organizational prospect" group valued at 11.45 million, same as Brett Phillips or Luis Ortiz now that they've fallen out of top 100 consideration (IMO). However, I'd probably upgrade the compensatory pick just slightly because it's not simply about drafting a player like Lutz, but also gives the team that additional money from that draft spot to add a bit of flexibility to what they could do. Personally, I'd probably put the value of the compensatory pick at about 13 million (and admittedly am pulling the approximate 1.55 million difference out of my rear end, but I think that's fair). If I'm the Orioles and, by my numbers, if the offers fell short of 13 million in prospect surplus value then I'd just keep Machado the rest of the year and take the draft pick.

Just to rehash the prospect surplus value numbers. Baltimore is up to 91 games played. Machado's Fangraphs WAR = 3.2. Baseball Reference WAR = 2.1. Let's just, to put the max value on him, credit him at 3.2 WAR through 91 games. Extrapolate that out to 162 games makes him a 5.7 WAR player. And just to make the math that much easier, put him at 6 WAR over the season which makes him a 1 WAR per month player. That's taking the high number and "rounding up" through the process. Maybe one could argue that putting the max on Machado also factors in any playoff contributions, everyone here can decide on their own if that's legitimate or not. 1 WAR = 9.16 million. Machado makes 16 million this year...16 million/6 months or approximately 2.67 million per month. So doing the easy math, Machado has about 6.5 million dollars of surplus value per month. Trade for him on July 31st, fair package would have approximately 13 million in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore. Trade for him on July 16, fair package would have about 16.25 million headed to Baltimore. I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

I like Dietrich's bat but I'd pass. I still think his price-tag will be fairly high considering the offensive production, remaining control and reasonable salaries. But the only position where he would get regular at-bats is second base, and I think the odds are high that a move is made at shortstop and Miller gets bounced to second base. Making a move for Dietrich would probably cost a fair bit and then he'd probably be taking Hernan Perez's spot. While there is no question Dietrich would be a major upgrade offensively, Perez brings a far better glove and can play at shortstop and right field and Dietrich likely can't play either of those two positions (does have 1 2/3 innings as a MLB right fielder). Not worth even worth a 10 million dollar surplus value investment, and frankly the Marlins should be looking for twice that number to move him. I have to disagree with Heyman on this one. But Milwaukee's middle infield has been so bad that it's pretty obvious that any warm body who has taken ground balls at 2B or SS is going to be linked to the Brewers from now until the end of the month.

Update on Britton: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-britton-brach-20180709-story.html His salary still makes him a questionable fit for the Brewers IMO, but I thought I'd post this for the pro-Britton folks out there. Velocity has been back to normal in the last couple of appearance.

In all seriousness, the Yankees should be calling the Brewers about Eric Thames. Add him and a starting pitcher and they'd be looking pretty good.

He clearly can rake, but he'd be really bad defensively. I'd like hm more if he had a need at thirdbase instead of shortstop. There is just no question that Machado is a far, far, far better fit at third base and a team that would acquire him to play third base would probably be willing to give up more. I really thought Boston would jump in but Devers did better in June (although he's off to a bad start in July). A couple weeks ago I thought the Indians would jump in, bounce Ramirez to 2B and bench Kipnis but now Kipnis has started to do better with the bat. Of the seven teams that were reported to be interested, I'm guessing only the Indians and Braves would having him playing some at third base (but would probably still see most of his at-bat's at shortstop with Atlanta).

I think the Britton suggestion is terrible. The guy is coming back from injury and has been nothing but bad so far. 5.06 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 5.9 walks per 8 innings. Fastball velocity down from 96.1 to 94.0. And the guy is making 12 million dollars this year. Trade for him now and the Brewers are on the hook for a bit under 6 million...plus the just under 8 million for Machado. No thanks.

Now the talk is that the Orioles want Dodger RHP prospect Dustin Mays and he's not MLB ready quite yet. Possibly will be mid-2019, I would think that would be the absolute earliest for him. So either the 2 MLB ready starters report was false, or the Orioles have come to realize that's not going to happen and have adjusted their expectations.