JosephC

1.2 - Hunter Greene

My best guessing comes up with the same two names. I think the Brewers love Hall but in the end will go with Peterson. Stearns is one of those young Ivy League guys and they seem to be somewhat statistics driven and going with the college player just tends to be a much safer, more projectable type pick because there is additional and more reliable data on those players. While Stearns has the ultimate responsibility for these picks, Montgomery has the most input and if there is any type of discussion regarding what player to pick then chances lean towards it being a college player. Obviously I don't have a complete Fangraphs statistical layout but it's interesting looking at Peterson's raw pitching statistics from this last season and how they stack up against the top two college pitchers in this draft. Wright = 2.91 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.4 innings/start, 2.7 walks/9 innings, 10.4 strikeouts/9 innings, 1 HR/44.8 innings pitched McKay = 2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.5 innings/start, 3.1 walks/9 innings, 12.3 strikeouts/9 innings, 1 HR/18.2 innings pitched Peterson = 2.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.7 innings/start, 1.3 walks/9 innings, 12.6 strikeouts/9 innings, 1 HR/50.2 innings pitched I realize that all conferences aren't equal and the level of competition differs, but Peterson wins in all three of the "known outcome" categories and that has to hold some significance. And Peterson isn't a little, crafty left hander who is winning with pinpoint control and little else. He's a big man who isn't a fire-baller but has more than adequate velocity combined with two other already MLB-average pitches and his change-up might have the most potential of all the secondary pitches possessed by him or Wright or McKay (even though the profile at MLB.com doesn't seem to agree with that). Two months ago Peterson seemed to be talked about as a possibility as being picked around #20 but only as a below-slot candidate. Now he looks like he has a great chance to be picked in the top 12. It's not hard to see why his stock has gone up so dramatically.

He may have been moved to the bullpen but that sounded like a pretty temporary thing while Cleveland works out Kluber rejoining the rotation. He wouldn't come cheap, that's for sure. Cleveland is in win now mode and I think they see Salazar as being a big part of this team for now and for the next few seasons. His early season struggles look somewhat fluke-ish as his home run to fly ball ratio percentage is 22.9%. It's led to his FIP being a poor 4.69 while his xFIP is a much more reasonable 3.53. I don't see anything that would give me long-term concerns. The price tag would be appropriately high if he was with a rebuilding club but since the Indians are a competitive club the Brewers would not only have to meet the "fair-market" price tag but also would have to exceed it. My best guess would be something like: Brewers get: RHP-Danny Salazar Indians get: 1 of the Brewer current rotation pieces (their choice, I'd guess Guerra) 2 of the following three: Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff (I'd guess Ortiz and Woodruff) Brett Phillips

1.1 Brendan McKay

turbotickey looks to be right on with the math. The Brewer's opening day payroll generally topped out at 100-105 million when attendance was booming. Braun's contract will represent anywhere from 16% to 19% of that total if the Brewers go back up to that number by the 2020 season. 16% to 19% is a significant amount. I don't understand how anyone could make the argument that this shouldn't hinder the roster/payroll flexibility that Stearns has. It may not be an issue today. It could be a very big issue in 2019. And with the team overachieving and currently appearing to be ahead of schedule in the rebuild, it's likely that Braun's contract could become an albatross sooner than later.

80 million dollars is only a mole hill if it's someone else's money.

When I threw out names like Sandoval and Zimmerman, it wasn't to suggest those as possible trade targets. Only suggesting that to move Braun the Brewers will have to take back an ugly contract like that. Even when looking at taking back a really ugly contract, I still can't find a match for Braun. Maybe if the Victor Martinez deal ended after this year, then a Braun for Zimmerman swap could work because IMO opinion Zimmerman has an even higher negative surplus value than Braun so the deal would probably include a couple prospects headed to Milwaukee. But as desperate as the Tigers are to unload Zimmerman, acquiring Braun still would make no sense for them with the DH spot occupied and Justin Upton having a pretty good year in left field. Not to mention Miguel Cabrera is probably ticketed to be their DH-of-the-future. Braun really seems to be completely unmovable. If Stearns can find a deal for him I would be very surprised.

Braun probably sits in the top 10 in negative surplus value when looking around the league. The only way he gets traded now is if the Brewers are willing to gamble on an equally bad contract. Pedro Sandoval or Jordan Zimmerman? What even makes a deal harder now is everyone including Braun knows that he will have zero earning potential past the buyout of the option year, so for him to approve any deal outside of LA the team(s) will have to come up with another 11 million dollars which puts one more hurdle on a potential trade. I agreed with Stearns "hold" move with Braun at the deadline last year. In retrospect it was a mistake. Even if the deal would have only been Puig and McCarthy, that still would have been a good deal for Milwaukee considering McCarthy is off to a good start (3.76 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP). McCarthy could have been retained as a valuable rotation piece of this season (and maybe next year), or is looking like a pretty decent trade chip since he has 1 2/3 years of team control left and is only due about 16.67 million over that timeframe. Puig has been terrible in May...has slashed a poor .222/.273/.361/.634...but he has also hit 3 home runs, knocked in 12 runs and scored 13 runs which is far better than the almost nothing production the Brewers got out of Braun this month (.410 OPS, 2 runs, 1 RBI). Stearns has turned in a grand-slam type performance since he got here but doing the "hold" on Braun will likely go down as his first major mistake. Hopefully I'm wrong and Braun will come back, stay healthy in 2018 and 2019 and OPS .850 - .900. I don't see it happening but the guy is talented so it can't be ruled out.

How many MLB players have retired and forfeited a significant amount of guaranteed money? I can only remember one. Gil Meche. Can anybody think of anyone else?

I see what you're saying. Roll the dice and strike out on the 46th pick...well it is only the 46th pick and they've already picked two players ahead of that which gives them a bit more room to gamble. I'll make the crazy, completely unfounded guess that Beck will be picked between #34 and #46 and will be looking for a minimum of 2 million to sign (which is between the slot values for picks #33 and #34). Here is an interview with Beck from 2015 right after he withdrew from draft consideration. http://www.pe.com/2015/06/09/baseball-beck-discusses-withdrawal-from-mlb-draft-consideration/ There is a note that the Baseball America mock had him at #28. Obviously no real information if interested teams were picking higher or lower than #28. The slot value for the #28 pick that year was $1,974,700. Very likely a top 75 pick and slot value for the #75 pick that year was $814,300. So he's obviously been willing to walk away from a pretty substantial payday in the past.

The more I think about Tristan Beck, the more it seems like the best thing for him would be to head back to Stanford. He didn't pitch this season which really should push him far down the board. But if he's fully healthy and pitches well next year he's a very, very strong bet to be a top 20 pick. It would be hard to walk away from 1.5 million dollars, but since he already had a chance to make some money once and walked away he'll probably be willing to do it again unless he's going to get a pretty large bonus. Sure would be interesting to find out what his demands will be, he obviously has some leverage because going back to Stanford for one-year isn't a bad situation. I'd guess if the Brewers want to pick him at #46, they'd have to pay him way over the slot-value and do you really want to do that with a player that missed all of last season?

I got the impression from one of Haudricourt's articles that the Brewers had Hall very high on their list. Kind of surprised to hear he might be a below-slot candidate. Mayo had him at #19 in his latest draft, but most of the time he seems to be projecting in the #12 to #14 area. The slot value at #9 is 4.57 million, whereas the slot value at #12 is 4.032 million, so there is a decent chance that Hall would be happy with anything over 4 million and that would give Milwaukee an extra 0.538 million to play with later in the draft. If the Brewers do have a serious interest in Tristan Beck, this would allow them to pick him at #34 but pay him a value that lies between the #25 and #26 pick in the draft.

I beg your pardon, turns out I was looking at the Baseball America list from March. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-top-100-mlb-draft-prospects/#DTrQbaDV1gWLMSR7.97 Thanks for providing the ranking for Tristan Beck. It will be very interesting to see where he's drafted and how teams treat the slot value associated with him since he is a draft-eligible sophomore.

I'm kind of surprised Enlow is that high considering the last Baseball America list has him at #80. But I'd take him. Enlow at #34 and Waters at #35....those are probably my two favorites for that pick at #34. And That...could you give me information as to where Stanford RHP-Tristan Beck slotted in the aggregate ranking?

Another player I really like in the #34/#46 area is Georgia high school outfielder Drew Waters. Switch-hitter who isn't overwhelming with the bat, but he seems like a good bet to get on-base enough where his best talents (defense and speed) can be put to good use. Has anybody heard if the Brewers have interest in Stanford RHP-Tristan Beck at #34/#46? I know they had drafted him previously in 2015 and Ray Montgomery was with the Brewers at that time. I've also read somewhere that teams might be looking at Beck as a late first round below-slot candidate, so even though he seems to be grading lower (Baseball America has him at #54, MLB has him at #52) there is a chance he is picked ahead of #34.

Storen is off to a hot start but I think he would hold minimal trade value. When looking past the ERA there are some real red flags that I think would have a significant impact on his value. His fastball velocity is a full 3 MPH slower than it was just two years ago. And his xFIP is 4.47 which indicates there is a big negative adjustment coming to his ERA. I wouldn't be interested in trading for him at all but if Attanasio insisted I'd explain there is no way the Brewers should go over a "role player" type prospect for him. Cozart currently sits at .351/.432/.595/1.027. His 3-year split total (2014-2016) sits at .240/.291/.376/.667. Where he will end up is anyone's guess. I'll give him the benefit of a doubt and take a guess and say .290/.360/.480/.840. If he achieves that, he would have to roughly slash .270/.337/.440/.777 the rest of the way. A fair comparison to those numbers is Brandon Crawford in 2016 and Crawford's average WAR value between Baseball America and Fangraphs was 5.15. However, Crawford's advanced defensive statistics were through the roof last year, and while Cozart is a plus defender there is no doubt that any WAR value assigned to him in 2017 based on Crawford's 2016 should be lowered because of the defensive aspect. Personally, if Cozart is hitting .270/.337/.440/.777 over a full season I'd put him as being around a 4.3 WAR player and since the season is 25% gone I think he's good for 3.2 - 3.3 WAR the rest of the way. Since it's a <1 year rental, I'd throw out the surplus value aspect of it. I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Reds to demand one "back of the top 100" type prospect or two solid "organizational top 10" prospects for Cozart. Packaging him along with Storen likely would get them that type of return.

This would be my trade strategy if the Brewers are somewhere around 10 games over .500 a week into July. Overall strategy changes from rebuilding/seller to hold/limited buyer. The one big exception is Braun. Even if he's back and playing well, I'm now in dump him as soon as possible mode. Just too many questions regarding how many games he'll appear in between now and the end of 2020. I'd pull all the rest of the continuing major league pieces off the board. After that I would add Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, Isan Diaz, Luis Ortiz, Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff to the untradeable list. After that I would have all options open. Would only trade Brett Phillips or Mauricio Dubon if it returned a plus starting pitcher. However, also would assume that Phillips and/or Dubon would not be enough to return a starter that would be an upgrade like Odorizzi or Estrada (would have to think other teams would be willing to significantly outbid for starting pitchers of that quality). So I'd officially be a buyer, but would probably only be willing to use ammunition that would return bullpen pieces or bats to fill in for whatever injuries occur between now and the end of July.

Any chance RHP-Blayne Enlow makes it to #34? Listed as a top 30 player by both Baseball America and MLB.com, but most mocks don't have him as being a top 30 pick. Baseball America does at #27 to the Cubs. But he's not listed in the Jim Callis mock (only goes through 30 picks) or the John Sickels mock (goes through 36 picks). He is an LSU commitment so I don't know if signability would be an issue. But he looks like a big kid who has some room to fill out and already has one plus breaking ball. If he makes it to #34 I'd love to see the Brewers pick him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Ernesto_Mart%C3%ADnez_Jr. Looking at that profile from Baseball Reference and looking at some Baseball America rankings, it seems like Martinez was more highly regarded a couple years ago. Will be interesting to see if he can recapture some of that magic he showed in the 2014 Worlds.

It's too bad that Braun had these injuries because Puig's slumping again. .309 OBP/.722 OPS on the season but has only slashed .250/.276/.375/.651 in May. Both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have him as a 0.1 WAR player. Obviously was in the doghouse last year and have to wonder if the Dodgers will be looking to part ways with Puig once late June rolls around. His 2016 WAR values from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs averaged out to 1.2. Probably would project him as a 1 WAR player moving forward and now his contract is large enough where he has surplus value but it is minimal. If Braun wouldn't have gotten hurt, the Dodgers could have taken Puig, swapped in Scott Kazmir for Brandon McCarthy and pretty much started the "two other prospects" talk again.

I agree on this. If it comes down to gambling on a low-floor, high-ceiling bat then I would rather take a pitcher. I would have no problem taking a bat if the right player was there. If Royce Lewis somehow slips to #9 then he is very likely a no-brainer selection. If Wright/Bukauska/Faedo are all gone at #9 then Pavin Smith would likely be my favorite. Once you get past those players, then there is a big group that includes guys like Adell and Kendall and a whole bunch of pitchers and in that case everything is about equal and under that scenario I'd rather go pitching.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/rules.jsp Basic rule of thumb is that if an 18 year old high school player does not sign and he enrolls in a 4 year university, then he cannot be drafted until the completion of his junior year. If an 18 year old high school player does not sign and enrolls in a junior college, then that player is eligible to be drafted in the following year's draft. Teams are in contact with players/agents and for the most part know what the expectations of a player are. For example, a player might say he wants to be a first rounder but will attend a 4-year university if selected lower. Milwaukee might have an interest in that player but still have other players at #9 and #34 that they prefer. The Brewers could contact this player and say that they will take him at #46 (slot value = $1.494 million), but will pay him a 2.0 million bonus which is equivalent to the #33 slot value (supplemental first round). So maybe that particular player would agree to that. This year the Brewer's bonus pool is $10,447,700. The total signing bonuses for all the Brewer picks in the first 10 rounds (10 "regular" picks plus the supplemental pick between rounds 1 and 2) plus any picks in rounds 11-40 that who are given a bonus greater than $125,000 count against the $10,447,700 total. So with the example above, the Brewers have paid the #46 pick approximately 500k over his slot value, meaning they would have to find a way to pay the rest of the group 500k less or else pay a penalty. They can go up to 5% over the assigned amount of the bonus pool and only have to pay a financial penalty (75% tax on the overage). If they exceed going over 5% of the assigned amount of the bonus pool they also have to surrender a future first round pick which IMO makes the 5% overage the "hard cap" with which they have to work. So there is a lot of work leading up to the draft with teams figuring out what players they will be able to sign and which players they won't be able to sign in certain areas of the draft. And there are times where teams just take a complete flyer on a player who they have no chance to sign. Last year Milwaukee took a high school pitcher named Jared Horn in the 20th round. On many top prospect lists he was graded in the 30-40 overall area but had stated he wanted 3 million to sign (top 13 overall pick if sticking with slot values) or else he was attending Cal. The Brewers still took him in round 20 and as expected by everyone he did not sign and went to Cal. Teams are protected with the early picks, if the Brewers don't sign one of their picks in the first three rounds they would get a compensatory pick in next year's draft 1 slot lower than the pick was this year (so if they don't sign the player they take at #46, they would automatically be assigned pick #47 in next year's draft). I'm pretty sure that applies through the first three rounds, although I cannot locate any documentation of that.

I'm hoping for Alex Faedo. If not for the knee injuries there is a pretty good chance he would be in the top 3 or 4 picks. Had some rough stretches early in the season but that could be attributed to him getting his legs back under him after the surgery. From what I can tell it doesn't look like the knees will be a long-term issue. He was excellent down the stretch. Last four games he threw 28 innings, allowed 4 runs and struck out 33. Could be a rare opportunity to get a player who really should be a top 5 pick at #9. Only two bats I would be interested in are Royce Lewis and maybe Pavin Smith depending on what pitchers are available. Lewis is so attractive I don't think there is any way I could pass on him if he did slip to #9 which is unlikely. I'd have to weigh Smith against whatever other pitchers are available, but there is a chance I might take him. Very likely would pass on Adell and Kendall at #9. I wouldn't avoid outfielders because of organizational depth, but I just think their floors are low enough where I'd gamble on a pitcher instead of taking a very low floor/very high ceiling type bat. The Brewers should be lighting up phone lines right now, because the Taylor Blake Ward (Scout) mock that Eye Black linked above is the worst-case scenario as it has Wright, Smith, Bukauskas and Faedo all off the board at #9. If that happens the best strategy might be to have a below-slot option lined up at #9 and have some "above slot" high schoolers lined up later. Slot amount at #9 is 4.57 million. RHP-Griffin Canning/UCLA is interesting and figures to go somewhere around #20 and probably is figuring to get a bonus of 3.2 to 3.0 million. He'd be a pretty reasonable target to work out a deal where the Brewers take him at #9, pay him about 3.70 million which leaves them with 870k of additional funds to spend later in the draft. Definitely not my first choice, would much rather take Wright, Smith, Bukauskas, Faedo and pay them the slot but if circumstances dictate...below-slot player at #9 could be the best strategy.

Quintana has a surplus value of right around 100 million IMO. If I'm the White Sox GM, this are the approximate surplus value I'd put on the Brewer prospects: -Lewis Brinson = 60 million -Josh Hader = 28 million -Corey Ray = 25 million (downgraded because he hasn't hit with the wood bat yet) -Isan Diaz = 23 million -Luiz Ortiz = 20 million -Brandon Woodruff = 20 million -Brett Phillips = 12 million -Trent Clark = 10 million -Lucas Erceg = 10 million -Mauricio Dubon = 10 million -Marcos Diplan = 10 million -Phil Bickford = 10 million -Jorge Lopez = 10 million -Ryan Cordell = 10 million -Corbin Burnes = 10 million -Jake Gatewood = 10 million -everybody else (provided I haven't forgotten anybody) = 5 million Again, putting myself in the White Sox GM chair, I would initially shoot higher than the moon and after bidding down I'd need something like this to motivate me to trade Quintana: Brewers get: LHP - Jose Quintana White Sox get: OF - Lewis Brinson RHP - Brandon Woodruff OF - Brett Phillips RHP - Corbin Burnes To move Quintana I'd make Brinson a requirement, one of Hader/Ortiz/Woodruff a requirement and 20-25 million more in surplus value a requirement. From the Brewer perspective, I'd love to see Quintana in a Brewer uniform but trading for a player like this would just un-do too much of the rebuilding work that Stearns/Melvin have accomplished up to this point.

If the Brewers are 8-10 games over .500 in July, I think Stearns will be completely out of re-build mode and will look to stand pat or be a limited buyer. Maybe would have a core list of about a half-dozen minor leaguers that he won't move (Brinson, Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, etc), but would be looking trade players that are not on that list. That probably eliminates getting any "A" or "B" type major league talent back, but still could fill a couple holes on the roster. The problem with becoming a buyer is that the biggest hole on the roster will be starting pitching and to acquire that Stearns would have to give up the prospect(s) that he likely doesn't want to move.