JosephC

I think this door has swung back open for Milwaukee. Now there are some reports that the Yankees do not want to include Florial in the deal. If the A's were set on getting a centerfielder, I don't know if Jorge Mateo has the experience there to convince the A's that he is their man. If the Yankees have pulled all six of their top prospects off the board, I can't see any deal coming from the Yankees that would make sense for the A's.

It's really interesting looking at the opinions on Candelario and Paredes. MLB.com has Candelario as the Cub's #1 prospect and in the back end of the top 100, while Baseball America lists him as the Cub's #9 prospect. Paredes is the Cub's #10 prospect on the MLB.com list and has an overall grade of 45 (normally indicating he'd be outside of the top 10 on the average organizational prospect list), but is #5 on Baseball America's list. Giving the average between a back end of the top 100 hitter and a top 10 organizational prospect, Candelario's prospect surplus value calculates out to 16.371 million. Paredes gets a top 10 organizational prospect grade for a value of 10.7 million. So combined the Cub's gave up 27.071 million in this trade. Avila has been a 1.95 WAR player so far this year, so just assuming he keeps doing what he's been doing he'll be a 0.975 WAR player the rest of the year. Value for that is 8.346 million and he'll get paid 0.667 million over that timeframe...so his surplus value is +7.679 million. Taking Wilson's average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, his averages for each of the last three season are as follows: 2015 = 1.45 2016 = 0.75 2017 = 1.725 (extrapolated to a full season, current average is 1.15) Three year average = 1.308 Probably the most fair to assume Wilson will keep doing what he's been doing for the rest of this year and perform at the three year average next year. That means he'll have a WAR of .575 for the rest of this year (4.922 million) and a WAR of 1.308 in 2018 (11.981) for a total value of 16.903 million. He will make 0.9 million for the rest of this year and is in arbitration. Giving him as 70% increase for next year would put his 2018 salary at 4.6 million so he'd earn a combined 5.5 million through the 2018 season. 16.903-5.5 = +11.403 million in surplus value. So I'd have the surplus value of Wilson and Avila at 19.082 million. So in terms of the numbers, I think this deal favors the Tigers. And according to MLB Trade Rumors, it sounds like the Tigers will either be getting another player or cash from the Cubs. But considering how all over the board the opinions are on Candelario and Paredes, it's wouldn't take much of an adjustment for the numbers to favor the Cubs (if Candelario is classified as a top 10 organizational prospect and Paredes as a role player prospect, the value of the two is 11 million less than what I estimated above). And in these trades that include rentals or short term controllable assets, it seems like the buyer always ends up overpaying by a bit. I think this deal favors the Tigers but I think it would be hard to argue it was a dramatic overpay by one side or the other. I was hoping Wilson would get traded on his own so an estimate could be made on what the Brewer's would have had to give up to get him. The estimate is the Cubs gave up 27 million. How much of that was "allocated" to Wilson and how much to Avila? I don't think there is any question the headliner in the deal is Wilson although I think Avila could pay better dividends for the Cubs through the rest of this year (I already liked the back end of the Cub's bullpen). Let's say this trade was 3/4's about Wilson (considering he's controlled for the extra year), that would put his part of the prospect surplus value surrendered at approximately 20 million. That would mean for the Brewers to have landed Wilson the most likely candidates would have been one of the top pitching prospects plus a fringe prospect. So one off the list of Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff and one off the list of Josh Pennington, Jorge Lopez, Kodi Medeiros, Clint Coulter, Demi Orimoloye, Chad McClanahan. That considered, I'm glad Stearns ended up sitting this one out.

Brewers are above average in OPS at every position except these three: 2B - 24th (.244/.313/.365/.678) LF - 16th (.234/.316/.436/.752) CF - 22nd (.218/.299/.423/.721) Kinsler might not be a huge upgrade with the bat (.244/.327/.391/.718) but combine the offensive upgrade with his superior middle infield defense and I think the overall impact could be pretty big. Left field numbers are obviously depressed with Braun's injury problems. But it wouldn't be a crazy idea for Stearns to trade for another centerfielder that can post a decent OBP because that has been a real weakness for the offense and who knows if Brinson/Phillips will be a short-term fix for that? I'm not a fan of Curtis Granderson at this point but he does have a .331 OBP so it's not all that surprising that Stearns was looking at him (at least the rumors said so). The problem with Granderson is that the defensive numbers have really slipped this year (-5 DRS, -10.7 UZR/150).

Straily isn't even to arbitration yet, so I'd guess that the cost would be way higher than most would anticipate. Won't get into Sonny Gray territory, but 25+ million in prospect surplus value is not out of the question. Could easily be something like Luis Ortiz and Marcos Diplan and a fringe prospect. I would completely avoid Straily as there isn't that much of a track record and some of the peripherals look rather ominous.

Did the market die? Thought ramos was multi year and one of the best available. Having Chapman and Miller both going on the block at the same time started the bidding war that seemed to trickle down to many of the other relievers on the market. The reliever market has come back down to earth and I'd guess we won't see those same types of reliever prices again until two or three elite type relievers go on sale at the same time and really start driving up the market. I think this is a pretty solid trade for both sides. Ramos is a quality reliever. Gonzalez is a solid "top 10 organizational prospect" and has a pretty good chance to have a future in the majors. His ceiling may be a #3 starter, but I'd take a 6 years of a mid- to late-rotation starter for 1.5 years of a reliever every time. Cepedes is less attractive because he is only 19 years old and is Rule 5 eligible, but he hasn't had a good 2017 so he is a very, very safe bet to not require a 40 man spot this next season. He should pass through the draft and the Marlins will get an extra year to evaluate him. But even so, he probably is only a "fringe prospect." The prospects represent about 13 million in prospect surplus value and IMO it's a pretty fair deal for both sides.

The Swarzak trade was made on the 26th and he was put on the 40-man roster yesterday. An article in the Journal-Sentinel said that Swarzak was with the Brewers before yesterday's game. Have to assume that it was the Brewer's decision not to put him in uniform for the game.

Jeffress has not pitched well this year so it would definitely need to be classified as a move for 2018/2019 rather than a move for the present. But even if Jeffress continues to struggle, could he be any worse than Wily Peralta currently is (I'll answer that, NO!). He seems like a bad fit for the Rangers and probably would be a real cheap pickup. I wouldn't be opposed.

Peralta has become a complete waste of a roster spot. Can't imagine why the Brewers would continue to hold onto him.

You can't be serious. So far the Rays have traded away one "top 10 organizational prospect" in Gillaspie (10.7 million), one "fringe player prospect" in Smith (2.14 million) and bought Romo for what is probably the equivalent of a 6-pack of beer. Roughly 12.84 million in prospect surplus value. The Brewers have traded away one "role player prospect" in Cordell (5.35 million) and one "fringe player prospect" in Garrett Cooper (2.14 million). Roughly 7.49 million in surplus value. To say one team is "going for it" since they have traded away an additional 5.35 million in surplus value is pretty questionable. I guess if Stearns swings that big deal tonight and trades Cody Ponce for a backup middle infielder we can all strut around because Stearns will then be "going for it" as the value of the prospects he traded away will have equaled that of the Rays.

I would still be trolling the bottom of the market looking for bargains. But after observing this team over the last four months AND the last two weeks, I'd be more inclined to avoid selling and avoid buying and go into hold mode. Since virtually the entire team will be back next year, the next two months can be used for further evaluation of the overall team and the individual parts. There is value in that. Hard to get a grip on what you are if you start trading away controllable players who were the team's future just one month ago.

The fact that Gray has not been traded yet leaves me to believe that he's not going to bring a big headliner player back to the A's. The A's should still get a very good return for him, but I'm guessing it will be more of a quantity over quality deal. Personally, I think that's a better strategy for the A's anyway considering they are a small-market team and are in perpetual rebuild mode (maybe that will change if and when they get their new stadium). In the end I think the Yankees will get him. Considering Yonder Alonso can be packaged gets the A's a slightly better package and gives the Yankees the upper hand over other bidders. The A's may still be holding out in hopes of landing RHP prospect Chance Adams, but somehow I get the feeling the Yankees will throw enough other pieces at the A's to get them to bite. Yankees get: RHP-Sonny Gray 1B-Yonder Alonso A's get: OF-Estevan Florial LHP-Justus Sheffield RHP-Domingo Acevedo RHP-Nolan Martinez OF-Jake Cave That's an estimated 61.5 million in prospect value going to the A's. I think that is a slight overpay for the Yankees but certainly not unreasonable (think Gray/Alonso are really worth about 50 million in value). Even though the values of Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield are not significantly different, I think Adams is a much more desirable prospect and if the A's land him instead of Sheffield it would make it a very, very good deal for them.

Who would they sell? Braun has no trade value with his contract and Garza is back on the DL. Sell Santana or Shaw when they are still under team control for so many years? No player that would make a bit of sense to move would bring back anything really worth talking about. I don't even think Knebel would bring back much of a return considering he hasn't pitched that well lately and the reliever market does not seem to be on fire this year.

Neshek isn't a closer, is only a rental and is pretty old, but this still seems like a really low sell on him. According to Fangraphs, Neshek has a 1.93 FIP which is the 6th best in MLB among relievers. I'd be disappointed with that return if I was a Phillies fan.

Just throwing this out there. This isn't trying to convince anybody this trade was a good trade or bad trade. People who post in the transaction rumors forum know the "prospect surplus value" concepts that are discussed there. Not pretending to be an expert, but I'll make what I feel is a fairly reasonable guess about the prospect surplus values of the players in the Brewer's minor league system (including Hader and Suter since they are such recent graduates): 66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25) 22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100) 17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75) 17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list) 17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100) 12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list) 10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect") 7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect") 5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect") 2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect") If the value of all the non-fringe prospects are added up, the total value of the top 23 players in the system is 311.447 million. After Cordell had been passed over by both Phillips and Brinson (with Cordell being 2 years older), I had downgraded him to the 5.35 million dollar category. So if he was still with the Brewers he'd be the 24th player on the list and would take the total prospect surplus value to 316.797 million. (5.35/316.797)*100 = 1.69%. Just one more way to evaluate the trade for what could be a rental reliever...the Brewers traded away approximately 1.69% of their total prospect value for Swarzak. Who knows, Cordell might go on to be a better player than any other player on this list. But currently it doesn't look like Stearns put a very big dent in the minor league system to land a rental reliever.

I had read a couple articles early in the season that named Zimmerman's contract the worst in baseball. Now we know that the Sandoval contract was even worse. But only considering the contracts where the team is still stuck with the player, I would argue that Albert Pujol's contract is the worst in baseball. People might argue that he still hits home runs has a chance to get to 100 RBIs, but in my book a DH that is slashing .238/.285/.381/.666 is completely worthless. Then figure in that he's 37 years old so there likely isn't any significant improvement in sight and the fact he is still owed 114 million after this season...I can't imagine there is a contract in baseball that is worse than that albatross deal.

Before the JD Martinez trade, I was kicking around the concept of the Brewers getting Jordan Zimmerman, JD Martinez, Justin Wilson and cash from the Tigers, the Tigers getting a couple decent prospects out of the Brewers system (maybe a combo like Cordell and Ponce), then the Brewers flipping JD Martinez to a third team and getting three prospects backs, the best of the three would get shuffled back to the Tigers. So the Brewers would have ended up Zimmerman, Wilson, two prospects from the third team's system and some cash from Detroit....Detroit gets two prospects from the Brewers and one prospect from the third team, and the third team gets JD Martinez. Zimmerman's contract is so bad though I never could get the cash part of the trade to match up where it would make sense between Milwaukee and Detroit. And in the end Martinez didn't bring enough of a haul to make all the pieces fit anyway. I think the Tigers are stuck with Zimmerman unless he puts together a great first half in 2018. As of now his contract is unmovable IMO.

Updated surplus value estimates for Brewer prospects (including Josh Hader and Brent Suter): 66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25) 22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100) 17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75) 17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list) 17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100) 12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list) 10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect") 7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect") 5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect") 2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect")

As far as I can tell, Swarzak is making 900k this season and will have make approximately 4.2 million as a major leaguer during his MLB career. Have to wonder if he'd take a decent guaranteed salary for next year and pass on free agency. His agent is Jet Sports who I know nothing about. Wonder if something like a 2018 salary of 4.5 million and a 2019 salary of 6.5 million with a 1.25 buyout for that second year. Looking at his 2017 statistics would lead one to believe he'd pass, but when looking at his career statistics a guaranteed 5.75 million might be enough to make him say yes.

I didn't take it as Florial and/or Mateo being the headliner(s) of a deal, but rather just likely pieces that the Yankees are currently scouting. I also don't think it's safe to assume that if Stearns was starting a package deal for Quintana with Ray and Ortiz that he would do the same with Gray. Gray is not at good as Quintana. As demonstrated earlier, surplus value estimates could place Gray's value at less than half of Quintana's value. That being said, I put a fair estimate of Gray's surplus value at around 42 million. Based on Ray's #70 ranking on MLB's top prospect list (combined with his no-show on the Baseball America top prospect list), I will now slot Ray as a #76-#100 hitter which puts his surplus value at ~22 million. Combined with Ortiz's surplus value of ~17.6 million...combined Ray and Ortiz have about 39.6 million of surplus value and then throw in a fringe prospect and it's a pretty fair deal. So while the offer should be less for Gray, it wouldn't be unreasonable for Stearns to include Ray and Ortiz in a Gray deal. Numbers-wise, the only way a Quintana to Milwaukee deal would have happened is if the Brewer offer started with Brinson. It's not surprising that Quintana is a Cub if Ray and Ortiz were the main pieces in the offer. If I took anything from this article, it's that Brinson was not on the table in a Quintana deal and if that's the case, it's very likely that Brinson is on Stearns strict no-trade list.

Writing was on the wall when the Brewers promoted Phillips and Brinson ahead of Cordell despite Cordell being 2 years older. Especially when, at the time, the Brewers were just looking for outfield depth and that's how Cordell profiled. Pretty much said everything about how the Brewer's viewed Cordell's long-term future with the franchise. Personally, I would have rather held onto Cordell as a potential third or fourth piece in a bigger deal...I think he may have more value there. But if Stearns has moved on from Sonny Gray and isn't thinking there is a big Brewer trade on the horizon, it was probably just best to move Cordell now. I have no problem with Swarzak but not crazy about this deal. Would have rather gotten a reliever that is controlled beyond this season. But if Swarzak signs an extension before free agency (not a crazy idea since he doesn't have a solid, consistent MLB track record), then this seems like a pretty reasonable deal to me.

That actually is pretty common. Usually 8-10 guys get put into the top 100 from the recent draft. The 8 that dropped off were: Josh Hader (graduated) Gilbert Lara Jorge Lopez Devin Williams (injured) Nathan Kirby (injured) Demi Orimoloye Chad McClanahan Michael Reed The only two on the list that were really disappointing were Lara and Lopez. Last three names were all pretty fringy to begin with and probably just went from being listed just within the top 30 to being listed just outside the top 30 (although "prospect status" may be a term that could be removed from Reed at this point).

That's ridiculously low for Bickford. Can understand why people are down on him but he was still drafted in the top 18 TWICE and his career minor league statistics are as follows: 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.6 K/9. There are probably only four or five players in the system that has the same upside as Bickford. He should get knocked down because of some of the concerns but behind players like Trey Supak, Jacob Nottingham, Caden Lemons, Kodi Medeiros (and a bunch of others)? Also think Trent Clark should be a few spots higher. 20 year old in high A that is OBP'ing .374 and further along in the power game than I expected (8 home runs). On the flip side, I'm really surprised Erceg wasn't the player that took the big tumble. No getting around a .278 OBP, not even great defense and home runs can save a third baseman from making that many outs.

Yes, if all these players are .230 hitters and can't play, exactly why would a MLB GM give up something of value for any (or all) of them?

Great trade for the Padres. Cahill isn't a real difference-maker and is only controlled for 0.5 seasons. Maurer has over 300 MLB innings and really hasn't shown that much yet (4.96 ERA). Maurer is a nightmare for the metrics, because the peripherals show he should be much better than he is (career 3.82 FIP), but he has enough inning now where the amount of runs trumps the peripherals and the stat sheets shows that he's been responsible for too many runs. Buchter is interesting but he's a fly ball pitcher that walks more batters than he should. He might be something but he's already 30 years old. So I really don't think the Padres gave up that much. At first look I thought the worst aspect of this trade from the Padres' perspective is that they would have to eat the rest of Travis Wood's contract (still owed roughly 9.16 million including 2019 buyout), but it sounds like Kansas City is picking up nearly all that money. Wood has been awful this year (6.91 ERA, 1.82 WHIP) but was good last year (2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and is a decent enough candidate for a bounce-back year in 2018 (especially if someone else is picking up the tab). Strahm is a former 21st round pick that hasn't gotten much respect but he quickly went through the minors (3.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in only 2 years), was great in KC last year (1.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in a small sample size) but struggled this year and is currently on the 60 day DL with a patellar tendon injury. Given his history prior to this season he looks like a promising player. Ruiz is a very high-ceiling lottery ticket. Again, under the radar because he was an international signing that signed for "only" $100,000, he got a helium watch mention from Baseball America last year and is tearing it up in the Arizona League this year as an 18 year old (1.219 OPS). Just love what Padres did here. Ruiz is so far away that he could easily crap out and Strahm might end up as a long reliever, but San Diego gave up so little it seems like the best thing to do was gamble on upside and they got a couple pretty good looking players. And as terrible as he's been this year, it wouldn't be shocking to see Wood rebound next year and while he isn't good enough to bring a big bounty, they might be able to flip him for another decent prospect in 2018.

I don't think Stearns will make a move for Gray. However, Gray looks like a better fit for the Brewers today (as compared to 7 days ago) than many of the other trade candidates. A weeks ago it would have been perfectly reasonable to trade for a rental or for a controlled back-end starter to try to maintain that 5.5 game lead and hold off the Cubs. I don't think there is any sense in that now. If Stearns is to make a move for a starter now it needs to be a player that has the greatest chance to make a significant impact immediately AND is controlled beyond this season since the Cubs are now heavily favored to win the division. How many other pitchers fit that description, are actually on the market and don't have a huge contract associated with them? Gray is about the only one. So while the same number of starters may be available, I think the pool that makes sense for Milwaukee has shrunk quite considerably.