JosephC

Red Sox just promoted Rafael Devers. The market for Kinsler might now be Milwaukee and nobody else. Perhaps a real bargain opportunity for Stearns if the Tigers are set on moving Kinsler and saving some money.

I'm starting to warm up to the Brewers picking up Kinsler. Even in a down year he is still an average bat for a middle infielder (.241/.325/.394/.719) and he currently has a .254 BABIP which indicates the slash line probably goes up. His defense is excellent. Currently a +8 DRS and +15.9 UZR/150 and the defensive metrics have him as one of the better defensive second basemen in baseball over the last 3 or 4 seasons. Even if the guy doesn't hit at all he still brings value with his glove. Veteran of 37 post-season games. The 2018 option is for only 10 million and he doesn't have to OPS .750+ to make him a valuable player when considering the defense he brings. Thing I really like is it sounds like there is no interest other than the Brewers and Red Sox and the Red Sox would want him to play 3B, but since he's only played a total of 2 MLB innings at third base it's not likely the Red Sox are going to make that much of an offer. Sounds like the Tigers want to move him and it could be a chance for the Brewers to pick up a solid player at a bargain price. A Kinsler acquisition makes no sense if Stearns sees Villar as the Brewer's long-term answer at second base, but with the way this year has gone that is very questionable. If not, Kinsler is an ideal candidate to fill in for a year-plus until Mauricio Dubon is ready and if Dubon isn't the answer than it's Isan Diaz turn.

Brinson would never be included in a trade like this unless Attanasio fell off his rocker (would just assume at this point that he would have to be responsible for going over Stearns head in this type of trade). At absolute best Verlander probably has a negative value of 13 million and Kinsler probably has a positive value of about 18.5 million. Throw in 30 million and that bring the value surrendered by Detroit at 35.5 million. Brinson's name should never even enter the conversation as his surplus value likely exceeds 60 million. If Verlander and Kinsler performances are projected on the high side over the rest of their contracts...and Verlander does not require the 2020 year to be guaranteed (which won't happen), a reasonable deal would be something like Verlander/Kinsler/30 million in exchange for Brandon Woodruff, Jonathan Villar, Ryan Cordell. I've projected Villar as a 1 WAR player per season over the next three years and then applied the 40/60/80 arbitration guideline which puts his surplus value at about +10.5 million. If a prospect is included instead of him it would be someone like Trent Clark, Lucas Erceg or Phil Bickford. But personally I would value Verlander at -40.5 million in surplus value and Kinsler as a +13.8 million in surplus value. Adding 30 million to that puts it at a total of +3.3 million which is somewhere between a "role player" prospect and a "fringe prospect." Easy to say that I would have zero interest in Verlander.

Too early to tell on the reliever market. Madson is old and Doolittle has major durability issues. I think that trade favored the Nationals (buyer) but it wasn't lop-sided. I thought the Phelps trade favored the Marlins (sellers) but that's only because one or two extra fringe prospects were included...some people would probably place a zero value on those guy. Again, not a lop-sided trade IMO. I think the Yankees/White Sox swap favored the White Sox (seller) but opinions on that are all over the board depending on how Rutherford is valued and how much Robertson's contract is weighed in the total equation. From what I've seen so far I don't think there is a real good indication of what guys like Justin Wilson, Brad Hand and Pat Neshek will go for. It wouldn't surprise me if those players fetched a back-half of the top 100 prospect plus another pretty decent prospect. But on the flip side it wouldn't surprise me if the headliner in the return ended up being a couple decent prospects plus a couple more fringy guys to give a more "quantity" over "quality" return.

I think Wilson is a better pitcher than Will Smith, but when the Smith trade was made the Giants were getting 3.5 years of control where Wilson is only controlled for 1.5 more years. So I don't think Wilson should bring the return that Smith brought. Awhile back I speculated on a Wilson for Ryan Cordell, Taylor Williams and Tyler Cravy package which seems ridiculous now. But right after I made the post Wilson went on a 13 appearance run where he posted a 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, Cordell's value took a nose-dive as every team in MLB saw the Brewers promote Brinson and Phillips (twice) instead of Cordell despite Cordell being older, and Taylor Williams went from being a pretty attractive lottery ticket (1.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP before suggested trade) to falling off a cliff (7.43 ERA, 2.10 WHIP after suggested trade). Now I think an expected package for Wilson would be something like Lucas Erceg, Cody Ponce and either Cravy or someone like Jorge Lopez.

Reading the baseball sites it sounds like the Brewers were way in on Gray, then the Astros were way in on Gray, then the Yankees were way in on Gray. One thing the Brewers, Astros and Yankees have in common is they all have a pretty good set of minor league pieces to make a deal with. Just have to think that the price-tag is too high if none of these teams are willing to step up and finish a deal.

Baseball Reference WAR values on Verlander from 2014-2017 (2017 pro-rated to full season, currently 7/12 of way into season) : 1.1, 2.0, 6.6, 1.9 Fangraphs WAR values on Verlander from 2014-2017 (again, 2017 pro-rated to full season) : 2.9, 2.9, 5.2, 2.9 Average of the two from 2014-2017 = 2.0, 2.45, 5.9, 2.4 Hard to look at those numbers and think that 2016 was anything but an outlier. Probably pretty fair to apply the 0.5 annual loss in value to him at this point considering he will be in his age 35 season in 2018. If you accept all that, projected annual WAR and value through 2020: remainder of 2017 = 1.0 * 8.56 = 8.56 million 2018 = 1.9 * 9.16 = 17.404 million 2019 = 1.4 * 9.80 = 13.72 million 2020 = 0.9 * 10.49 = 9.441 million Total value = 49.125 million Verlander is scheduled to make: remainder of 2017 (estimate is just 5/12 of yearly salary) = 11.667 million 2018 = 28 million 2019 = 28 million 2020 = 22 million (assuming this becomes a player option) Total earnings = 89.667 million I'd personally have him as having minus 40 million in surplus value. But let's assume the 2020 vesting option isn't converted to a player option and does not vest so the contract ends at 2019. Let's also assume that Verlander's performance does not drop between now and the end of 2019. He's projected to finish with a 2.4 WAR this year so let's assume that for 2018 and 2019 as well. Doing so would take Verlander's total value to 54.064 million and he would earn 67.667 million over that same period...so with those assumptions his surplus value would only be minus 13.603 million. If that's how both teams see it, there is enough wiggle room where the Brewers maybe get Verlander plus about 20 million from Detroit (or maybe Justin Wilson instead of a big chunk of that cash) and the Tigers get a couple nice prospects back from Milwaukee (maybe Trent Clark and Freddy Peralta). But I still think Verlander leverages the 2020 season to wave his no-trade and then I just don't see anything happening...the numbers don't make sense at that point.

I don't think this will happen. If it ever did get close to happening I think Verlander's no-trade rights plus the 2020 year would end up killing the trade. I can't imagine Verlander would approve the deal without getting something in return, and the return would be for him to demand the 2020 vesting option be converted to a player option which takes the contract up another 22 million. I don't think the Tigers would be willing to kick in even more money to protect the Brewer's 2020 finances and I don't see Stearns being real optimistic about being on the hook for 22 million to a 37 year old pitcher. I don't blame Stearns for doing his due-diligence on Verlander but to me it seems like a real, real, real long-shot. But who knows, stranger things have happened.

I would consider it an overpay by the Mariners but nothing dramatic. Hernandez is by far the biggest piece in the return but he's the definition of a lottery ticket. Miller is the second best piece, but the #14 ranking in the Marlin's system isn't that impressive considering the Marlins probably have one of the five weakest systems (BA had them ranked #29 heading into the season). I'd stack Miller along with Lopez and Schiraldi all as "fringe prospects" but wouldn't argue if someone wanted to put Miller one notch above that. I calculated Phelps surplus value out at right around 10 million and I'd value the prospects at 17.12 million. If the deal would have been Hernandez and Lopez/Schiraldi (one of the two)...to me that would have been a pretty fair deal. Nice trade by the Marlins.

If one projects Martinez as a 1.7 WAR player from now until the end of the year his value is approximately 14.552 million. Nevermind his salary since he is a rental. I'd put prospect surplus values on the returning players as follows: -Lugo = 7.49 million -Alcantara = 5.35 million -King = 2.14 million Total = 14.98 million Even though the values are pretty even, if I was a Tiger's fan I would still be thinking that they could have gotten a better deal for a hitter like Martinez. But the numbers do demonstrate that there is a reasonable chance there wasn't going to be a better offer out there. I probably would have just kept Martinez for the rest of the year and taken the compensatory pick. Their scouts/statistical models apparently really like Lugo/Alcantara/King, and/or they made this move because they are anticipating infield problems in the near future which isn't crazy when looking at their roster.

Seems like a terrible deal for the Yankees. Almost like a panic move to obtain Frazier just to keep him away from Boston. With Pineda going down it seems odd to make a move like this that doesn't involve starting pitching. I know that Chance Adams is nearly ready but without Pineda...and how long will Sabathia's 3.54 ERA hold up? The Yankees bullpen was #5 in MLB in ERA (3.45) before this trade was made...not sure if the advanced metrics would back up that performance but it didn't seem like an area that needed a dramatic improvement. Robertson may have been considered the best reliever on the market this year but he just isn't an elite reliever. And he's so high paid at this point that his salary eats away almost all of his surplus value. Granted, "value" trumps "surplus value" by far for a deep-pocketed team like the Yankees. But even if Robertson was making half the money he is, there are a bunch of other relievers I would rather have that appear to be available. I think chances are that Rutherford is an over-rated prospect and should be more down towards Isan Diaz territory in the prospect rankings. Both of the other prospects involved seem to be solid "role-player" prospects. The other outfielder prospect involved, Tito Polo, is a riser that shouldn't be overlooked. A relative unknown that has gotten on base at a good rate through his minor league career (career .355 OBP) and has started to show more pop in the bat of late (.382/.460/.545/1.006 in limited sample size as 22 year old in AA). Not making him out to be a big-timer but he has played his way into legitimate prospect status...probably about equivalent in value to a Ryan Cordell. If I were to stack the three prospects in this deal against players in the Brewers system, I would call it an Isan Diaz + Cody Ponce + Ryan Cordell type of return. That's not bad. Back to the Yankees, I really think a Sonny Gray/Yonder Alonso package from the A's would have made much more sense. Would be interesting to find out what the A's asking price would be for a package of those two players?

I apologize if this has already been posted. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sonny-gray-is-back-and-he-isnt/ Interesting look at Sonny Gray in 2016/2017. Does he have his breaking ball or doesn't he? Is he intentionally throwing more breaking balls out of the strike zone? Is this a new Sonny Gray and will MLB hitters make the adjustment? I don't think there is any data in this piece that would make anyone change their opinion on Gray but it's worth the read and there is stuff in there that Stearns is probably thinking about.

Let the Cubs pay the big premium to add the closer. Brad Brach is just one step down and is a reliever I'd love to see in a Brewer uniform. Will be interested to see how high the price goes on him (could very well end up fetching much more than I'd be willing to give up).

Musgrove has basically been at replacement level so far as a major league player but his sample size is still somewhat limited (140 innings pitched). But at this time last year he was #32 on Baseball America's top prospect list. So he's a hard guy to evaluate. The #32 ranking would give him a value of 31.886 million but his MLB performance so far equals right around zero. Likely the type of player that different organizations would grade completely different. I would think his MLB performance is large enough at this time where it would outweigh his prospect status, meaning his value would be closer to zero than 31.866 million but where to put him is the big question. I'd probably classify him in that tweener group between top 100 prospect and top ten organizational prospect which puts his value at 12.84 million. Forrest Whitley is #58 on the Baseball America update which puts his prospect surplus value at 17.655. IMO Teoscar Hernandez is an easy call. Not listed as a top 100 player but it likely right on the borderline. Easy to put him in the same group as Brett Phillips which gives him a prospect surplus value of 12.84 million. 17.655 + 12.84 + 12.84 = 43.335 million Another estimate that puts Sonny Grey's estimated surplus value at right around 40 million dollars.

Taking the average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Quintana has been nearly a 2 WAR better pitcher on average for the seasons 2014-2016. That is a huge difference. Also, Quintana is under team control through 2020 while Gray is under team control through 2019. Combine those two things and Quintana has more than double the surplus value of Gray. The only real advantage with Gray is that he's in arbitration so he may be slightly cheaper than Quintana but the difference probably won't be all that great assuming Gray gets bumped up to 7+ million next season which is pretty likely. This last off-season I had put a surplus value on Quintana of about 110 million and bumped it down to about 95 million just prior to him being traded based on 1/2 less years of control and that his performance has slipped a bit the first half of this season. Verdict is now in and the prospect surplus values for the White Sox return on him is as follows: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ Take above values and multiply by 1.07 (random number pulled out of my rear end for 2016 to 2017 "inflation." http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#Zxq2bASSqotc9Mte.97 Then slot Jimenez (#5) and Cease (#83) from the Baseball America mid-season update and the prospect surplus values are as follows. Jimenez = 78.645 Cease = 16.692 Rose = 2.35 (value of "fringe" prospect) Flete = 2.35 (value of "fringe" prospect) Total = 100.037 million So right in the ballpark of what was expected. Now in terms of Sonny Gray...my best guess at his surplus value is outlined on page 4, post 69 of this thread. I came up with about 42 million in surplus value. Interestingly enough, reillymcshane also put his estimate up on page 7, post 137 of this thread and came up with just about the same figure. So there are two different estimates that indicate that Gray really shouldn't bring even half the value that Quintana did. I guess where reillymcshane and I disagree will be the value of some of the Brewer prospects but I suspect we'd be pretty close on most. For the record, here is my current prospect surplus value amounts, some of which I'll want to adjust when MLB does their pipeline update to the top 100 (which I think should happen pretty quick). 66.34 million = Lewis Brinson (hitter #11-#25 on top 100) 22.042 million = Isan Diaz (hitter #76-#100 on top 100) 17.655 million = Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (pitcher #51-#75 on top 100) 12.84 million = Corey Ray, Brett Phillips, Keston Hiura (barely outside of top 100) 10.7 million = Trent Clark, Corbin Burnes, Phil Bickford, Lucas Erceg (top ten organizational prospect) 7.49 million = Mauricio Dubon, Marcos Diplan (between "top ten organizational prospect" and "role player" prospect) 5.35 million = Jacob Nottingham, Freddy Peralta, Tristen Lutz, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell, Jake Gatewood, Monte Harrison (role player prospects) 2.14 million = everybody else worth mentioning (fringe prospects) Personally, I wouldn't even be willing to trade 40 million of prospect value for Gray...would rather go with a cheap 1/2 year rental for insurance purposes. But back on page 4 I suggested the following as fair and reasonable swaps for Gray and after seeing reillymcshane's estimated surplus value I am even more convinced that these are reasonable packages: Package #1 = Isan Diaz (22.042) + Luis Ortiz (17.655) + Jorge Lopez (2.14) Package #2 = Brandon Woodruff (17.655) + Brett Phillips (12.84) + Cody Ponce (5.35) + Jake Gatewood (5.35) Package #3 = Josh Hader (17.655) + Corey Ray (12.84) + Phil Bickford (10.7) + Clint Coulter (2.14) IMO it's a no-brainer to walk away from a Gray deal that would involve anything significantly above what is included in any of those three packages.

.294/.387/.505/.892. No way would I be subtracting that from the lineup.

Sonny Gray had a 5.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP last year. Average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs: 2017 (so far): Jimmy Nelson = 2.8 Chase Anderson = 2.3 Sonny Gray = 1.6 2016: Chase Anderson = 0.8 Jimmy Nelson = 0.6 Sonny Gray = 0.1

Moving Davies now seems like an ill-timed "sell-low" type move to me. Last year his WAR average between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference was 2.55 for a pitcher in his age 23 season. He hasn't had a significant injury and is an excellent bounce-back candidate if he gets his control issues worked out. I wouldn't be moving him now. Currently it appears he will finish this season at approximately 1 WAR. If that's how the A's evaluate him, he won't count for much in terms of trade value. Definite hold candidate IMO.

In last year's market that would be a horrible return for Madson and Doolittle but if this year returns to normalcy it's probably pretty reasonable. Madson is a non-closer who is 36 years old and doesn't have a huge contract but it's pretty significant for a non-closer of his age. Doolittle threw 52 2/3 innings in 2015-2016 and missed a big chunk of time already in 2017. In a normal market these are players who have value but shouldn't go for ridiculously high prices. Maybe each is worth a "top 10 organizational" type prospect and that's pretty much what the return was. I'm kind of interested in what the A's really think of Blake Treinen? He was good last year but is basically at replacement level this year. There is still a lot of time left between now and the deadline, so I could be proven wrong about this, but I just don't see the relievers in this market getting the huge returns that we saw last year. The Chapman/Miller bidding really seemed to throw the rest of the market out of whack. Thankfully there was a smart young guy in Milwaukee that took full advantage of it.

Average WAR value from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference: Gray: 2014 = 3.15 2015 = 4.75 2016 = 0.1 2017 = 1.3 (so far) Project the 1.3 in 2017 over the full season and credit him with a 2.6 WAR for the year. Then take a four year average and Gray is a 2.65 WAR player. Probably safest just to project him at that same number for 2018 and 2019. He could be much better (2015) or much worse (2016), but probably the most reasonable thing to do would to just assume he'll keep doing what he's averaged over the last few years. Remainder of 2017 = 1.3 * 8.56 = 11.128 2018 = 2.65 * 9.16 = 24.274 2019 = 2.65 * 9.80 = 25.97 Total controlled value = 61.372 I think brewcrewdue80 arbitration estimates are right in the ballpark. I'd project the future earnings as follows: Remainder of 2017 = 1.7875 2018 = 6.435 2019 = 10.9395 Total salary = 19.162 So I have Gray's surplus value at +42.21 million. Fair packages of Brewer prospects would be as follows: Package #1 = Isan Diaz (22.042) + Luis Ortiz (17.655) + Jorge Lopez (2.14) Package #2 = Brandon Woodruff (17.655) + Brett Phillips (12.84) + Cody Ponce (5.35) + Jake Gatewood (5.35) Package #3 = Josh Hader (17.655) + Corey Ray (12.84) + Phil Bickford (10.7) + Clint Coulter (2.14) Lewis Brinson has an estimated prospect surplus value of 66.34 million, so if he's in the trade it should be something like Brinson for Gray, Ryan Madson and a decent "role-player" prospect.

Cole Hamels should be added to the first post.

Not surprising that Stearns is taking the initial approach of trolling the bottom of the pitching market. Will admit to being surprised that the trolling went all the way down to AAA. Looking forward to seeing Webb. Looks like he was doing pretty well against righties this year. At 26 years old, he should be ready to go. I didn't see much of a reason to hold onto Cooper any longer, especially if Stearns now considers Aguilar an unmovable piece due to his bench bat and plus-insurance at first base. Cooper was blocked here and despite the good AAA numbers, I don't think his value was high enough to hold onto and hope the team could use him as a key third or fourth piece in another trade down the road.

I slightly disagree with McCalvy only because I think Jimenez is one step above Brinson. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/ #5 = Jimenez #16 = Brinson So what is the difference in the surplus value "guess-timation?" http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ Take the values in those tables and the next "guess-timation" is multiply them by 1.07 to adjust for 2017 versus 2016 inflation. Jimenez = 78.545 million Brinson = 66.34 million In my opinion the difference between those two players is a guy just barely out of the top 100. There are 3 Brewer prospects I'd put in that group right now: Brett Phillips, Keston Hiura, Corey Ray (I still have Isan Diaz at the tail end of the top 100). Cease is a back end of the top 100 pitcher so his surplus value is 16.692 million. Rose and Flete are "fringe prospects" IMO, and I agree 100% with McCalvy that those guys are basically the equivalent of a Clint Coulter. Surplus value for each of those would 2.14 million 78.545 + 16.692 + 2.14 + 2.14 = 99.517 million of surplus value. This off-season I had put Quintana as having about 110 million of surplus value and with the start to this year plus 0.5 less seasons of control I had put his current surplus value at about 95 million. So from a value standpoint I'd call this swap almost perfectly equal. Back to McCalvy, I'd have Brinson (66.34 million), Ortiz (17.655 million) and two fringe prospects (2.14 + 2.14) = 88.275 million. I have Ray/Hiura (PTBNL)/Phillips each at 12.84 million so I think it would have taken the inclusion of one of those three to equal what the Cubs gave up.

Average (Fangraphs/Baseball Reference) of Happ's WAR in 2015 and 2016 was 2.9 and 3.85. So far this year it's 1.15 so project that out to 2.3 this year. Take that three year average and he sits right at a 3 WAR player. Assuming he performs over that level the next year and a half and it puts his value at about 40.32 million. He's scheduled to make 19.5 million over that timeframe so I'd put his surplus value at right around 21 million. That is right about in the range of two "top 10 organizational prospects" OR a "back end of the top 100 prospect" plus a "role player prospect." However, with the Blue Jays losing two other starters and not really needing to move Happ, I'd guess they'd probably need about 30 million dollars in surplus value to make the deal. I'd guess something like: Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Trent Clark Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Phil Bickford and Ryan Cordell But if the Blue Jays were just willing to take what I think the true value of Happ is (about 21 million in surplus value), then I would expect the deal to be something like: Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Clint Coulter Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Cody Ponce and Wendell Rijo

He's an excellent pitcher, just not elite .... and hasn't the whole world had a HR spike this season? Trading away system for an SP, should make it an Ace. CC & Greinke, those guys were aces. You knew you would most likely win every time they stepped on mound. Guys we are targeting in my eyes don't give you that. Very good pitchers but not sold on them being the kind of pitcher we really need on this team. I'm against buying & selling off system unless we are getting a game changer. So one to be excited about. I want elite otherwise try to find Marcum type trades that won't break bank. I agree that Quintana isn't as good as a pitcher like Sabathia when the Brewers made that trade. But IMO Quintana has more value now than Sabathia had then. Sabathia was a virtual lock to leave the team after the season, whereas in this case the Brewers would control Quintana for 3 more seasons. 2018 (age 29 season) = 8.85 million 2019 (age 30 season) = 10.5 million (1 million buyout) 2020 (age 31 season) = 10.5 million (1 million buyout) So the Brewers would control him through what are considered prime years at a salary that is very affordable for a small-market team. If a catastrophic injury were to occur the Brewers could buyout the deal for a very small cost. For a small market team trading away three of four key pieces of their future, it would make more sense to do it for Quintana now rather than Sabathia or Greinke when those trades were made. Maybe not an elite level pitcher, but when looking at the big picture I see him as being even more attractive.