JosephC

If Garza keeps pitching like he has pitched so far he'll potentially be a fit for about 50% of the league in July. Fastball velocity at 92, xFIP at 3.57, nothing all that scary that I see in any of the peripherals, and he's pitched in the AL East which doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me but some people still seem to swoon over that fact. Personally I'd be surprised if he keeps up these numbers but if he does he'll should get a pretty decent return. Top 100 prospect could be a stretch but not at all unrealistic to think he could get a couple "top 10 organizational prospects" (meaning two players in the 101-300 overall range) back if he maintains this pace into July.

Just thinking back to how the Mets really stepped up in the Lucroy bidding. If Stearns were to call about Harvey the Mets would probably ask for 1B-Eric Thames, OF-Lewis Brinson, LHP-Josh Hader and RHP-Brandon Woodruff and then would bend to include 3B-Wilmer Flores but only to make Stearns think he got the better of the deal.

If I'm in a GM's chair there isn't any possible way that I could be desperate enough to want to take a risk on Braun's contract. Latest official DL move would do it for me. There are the back and thumb concerns that will likely always be a concern. Now it appears certain that he'll only log 7 at-bats over a 3+ week window with what are two of the most minor injuries there are, a mild forearm strain and a mild calf strain. So not only would I be getting a big contract player that has the chance to break down with some really debilitating injuries, but I also would be getting a player that is going to be out for a week just about every time he gets hit with a stiff breeze. No thanks.

I see a zero market for Braun at this time. Teams that seem to be the best fits, like San Francisco and Toronto, got off to such poor starts that there is no way they could justify making a trade for a player like Braun. Texas could be a good fit, but their DH spot is tied up in the long-term by Choo. I just can't see any team having any sort of interest in him, especially now when the durability issues are popping up again.

A Braun to Los Angeles deal made a lot more sense for both sides in August of 2016 than it does now. The Dodgers seemingly had just enough of Puig and McCarthy was the perfect contract to dump on Milwaukee (not so big that Milwaukee couldn't handle it, but big enough to justify a couple good prospects in the return). Now the Dodgers seem much more content with Puig and McCarthy was actually pitching pretty well before going on the DL with what appears to be a pretty minor injury. If Brock Stewart was one of the prospects in the return (complete 100% speculation, but he made a lot of sense), he probably doesn't interest the Brewers at this point since he has been out with a shoulder problem. It doesn't sound like the Gonzalez injury is something that will keep him out for six weeks, so Bellinger is probably penciled in as the left fielder after a week or so. Verdugo with a .402 OBP and a .402 SLUG (without the benefit of a HR yet?) in AAA so it doesn't appear he's too far away. If a deal were to happen it would almost have to include Puig to open up an outfield spot. Then the Dodgers would probably demand the Brewers take Scott Kazmir's contract to offset Puig's surplus value and justify throwing a couple prospects in the deal. And then when talking about the quality of the two prospects coming back...Stearns would want a top prospect plus a "C-level" guy and the Dodgers maybe being willing to give up a couple "C-level" guys. That sounds just like last year. And that didn't get done last year when it really made more sense for both sides. I don't see it getting done now.

Problem is that his surplus value changes on a week-to-week basis. On April 30th he was slashing .287/.374/.586/.960 and was on pace to play in 150 games this season. Pretty easy to see a surplus value of 10 to 20 million at that point. On May 8th the slash line is still impressive but now he's on pace to play 127 games this season and now it's perfectly reasonable to see him as having negative surplus value. Add in that in less than a week he'd be able to leverage another 11 million out of a team ("I'll waive my 10/5 rights only if the 2021 team option is turned into a player option") in a trade situation and it's hard to see him being moved at all. This all works out for Milwaukee if he continues to hit (which he will) and play (which is the big question). If he ends up playing about 110 games per year it's a bad contract for a small-market team in a rebuild, and I don't care how low the payroll is...a bad contract is a bad contract.

Braun just had 1 pinch-hit appearance in the last 8 days (6 games) with what he describes as "slight strain of my flexor muscles." That's not good news if you are a Brewer fan that wants to see Braun traded.

This doesn't have anything to do with Braun right now because being hurt and on the bench doesn't help trade value. But I have to wonder if the Dodgers will end up looking to move Puig at sometime between now and the end of July. Puig is on a 10/59 slide with only 1 extra-base hit (a home run) over that stretch (15 games that he's played in). He's still slashing a respectable .235/.316/.412/.728 but that still has to be somewhat disappointing for the Dodgers considering the great start he had. Since they have been willing to move him in the past, one just has to wonder if they will finally lose their patience with him and trade him.

Garza is veteran starting pitcher with a fastball still averaging 92+ with playoff experience and on the last year of his contract. If he gets 12 starts in and has an ERA 3.5-3.6 and a WHIP 1.20-1.25 there will be plenty of interest in him. He won't bring back a top 100 prospect but if the Brewers eat the majority of what is left on his contract getting back a "organizational top ten prospect" plus a better "role player" prospect probably wouldn't be very difficult. I just have doubts that Garza will be able to maintain his current pace. Time will tell.

Giant left fielders have somehow slashed .110/.185/.178/.363, but at 7-14 and Bumgarner out for 2 months one has to wonder if they are viewing themselves more as sellers at this point. Kind of incredible that things have gone so bad for them that the outlook could change so dramatically just 21 games in. Looking at off-season projections and, on average, the Giants were projected to win around 88 games.

I thought trading Haniger was a real questionable move considering how well he showed in 2013. But on the other end of the Parra trades the Brewers ended up getting Davies back. Obviously this flip-flopping could still end up being really bad for one side or the other but I think when all is said and done Haniger will end up being a average MLB outfielder and Davies will be a 3rd/4th type starter which is probably a wash type of situation. Pretty surprised that Banda has emerged as he has. Arizona's farm system is one of the weakest in MLB through so I don't know how much weight to put on his #1 ranking. I'm guessing that if you put him in the Brewer's system he probably sits in the 13-15 area? Have to tip your cap to the Diamondbacks for picking him out of the Brewer's system. He may or may not make it in the big leagues but clearly the Diamondbacks chose a player that has a pretty decent chance and I'm not sure that could have been said about Banda back in 2014. Not to be forgotten in all of this is that the Brewers had Parra for a year and he did a good job while he was here.

"you don't see that happen here very often." Yes, it is very rare to see major league hitters hit horrible belt-high hanging sliders over the outfield wall.

The most credible reports indicated the deal was Braun for Puig, McCarthy, 1 unnamed prospect that had been agreed upon and the hang up was they could not agree on a second prospect that was to be included. The media made out like the deal was very close but who knows for sure because the team's may have been world's apart on the second prospect. My wild guess on the 1st prospect that was agreed upon would be someone like Brock Stewart, a solid starter candidate who is older and is effectively blocked with the Dodgers due to their glut of starting pitching. But the second prospect, the Brewers are known to have asked for Cody Bellinger but maybe the Dodgers were only willing to give up someone like Johan Mieses. I'm not really convinced they were ever that close because if they were the deal probably would have gotten done. I agree with adambr2 that it's very unlikely that De Leon was agreed upon to be part of the trade.

If the Brewers are in first place on July 31st, then the rebuild ended sooner than most observers anticipated. No way the team should sell anybody if the major leaguers are doing that well (and how well the minor league system is already stocked).

I had forgotten about the Dodger's struggle versus left-handed pitching, which is inexplicable considering how much discussion there was about it last year. That problem seems to have continued (.218/.302/.345/.647), but there is one really odd stat line involved. So far Puig has slashed .105/.250/.105/.355 against lefties. From 2014-2016 Puig slashed a .263/.354/.441/.795 against lefties so there is a big correction coming here. As a side note, Forsythe currently has a 1.042 OPS versus lefties but has been brutal against righties (.443 OPS). But if I was in the Dodger's GM chair I'd still feel pretty good about where the team was at and wouldn't be looking to pursue Braun aggressively. The Giants on the other hand.....

The Dodgers just don't seem to make that much sense anymore. Yasiel Puig and Andrew Toles are both off to great starts. Braun is an everyday player, I don't think it makes much sense for the Dodgers to acquire him and push Toles to the bench. While the normal backup Dodgers outfielders aren't hitting, jack-of-all-trade Enrique Hernandez is and can fill in at the corner outfield positions when needed. If the Dodgers still do want Braun, IMO they would only be willing to acquire him for a bargain price. I can only think of two reasons why the Dodgers would still be interested in Braun at this point. First is they fear another Puig meltdown. But what's even more likely, they are now desperate to find somebody to take Scott Kazmir's contract off their hands.

I can appreciate that moving Thames down two spots in the order probably costs him roughly 50 plate appearances over the course of a season but currently the three guys hitting in front of him most days are Arcia (.281 OBP), 9th spot (.125 OBP) and Villar (.224 OBP). Getting Braun in front of him should result in more baserunners when Thames is coming to the plate. I also think in the long-term Shaw is probably fits best in the 6th or 7th spot in the lineup. It would be an opportune time to stick Santana between Thames and Shaw with the way he's been hitting. But all of that is the resulting shakeout of trying to get a legitimate bat behind Arcia to see how he responds. I wouldn't consider moving Thames at all of Arcia wasn't in the equation. But with the way Thames and Santana have been hitting, it seems like the time is right to try a Villar-Arcia-Braun-Thames-Santana-Shaw lineup. The teams been playing well, so if the primary concern is wins then the lineup isn't altered. But if the mindset is still in the rebuilding mode, I think it's a good time to move the lineup around and see how players respond to hitting in a different spot. I also think the idea of hitting the pitcher eighth, Arcia 9th and having Villar behind him is a good one.

With Thames smacking the ball around it's about time to drop him down in the lineup. I'd like to see Arcia get moved to the #2 spot. From the OBP perspective it makes no sense, .281 is just too low to be hitting early in the lineup. But this is a rebuilding club, and right now the #1 priority is developing the young players. I'd love to see if Arcia looks any different with a legitimate bat hitting behind him. Give it a three week audition and see what happens.

I have to disagree. If Otani gets to the majors, is consistently hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun and goes through about 10 starts and is mowing down MLB hitters then his day of taking regular at-bats will be a thing of the past. If the team that has him thinks he is a legitimate ace pitcher there is no way they will expose him to injury on his pitching off days (hit by pitch, foul ball off his leg, injured running the bases). They will also immediately worry about how batting on all those non-pitching days early in the season will affect his mound performance later in the year. It seems like MLB teams get more and more careful with starting pitchers with each season, it's pretty easy to envision 6 man rotations being the normal 15 years down the road. I just don't see any team allowing an ace pitcher to be a regular lineup player on his non-pitching days. But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.

If the guy was truly concerned about the dollar amount of his first deal he'd just wait two years and then cash in after he turned 25. It's more likely he'll look at prestige of the organization and the quality of players that will surround him over all other considerations. The Brewers might have one of the best farm systems, but a team like the Yankees could tell him that they will give Bryce Harper a half-billion dollars and put him in the same lineup and it's obvious to everyone on the planet that the Brewers won't be doing that. This race just isn't between two teams (probably between about 6), but when all is said and done I'd be pretty surprised if he is wearing something other than a Yankee or Dodger uniform.

1. OF-Lewis Brinson 2. RHP-Luis Ortiz 3. LHP-Josh Hader 4. RHP-Brandon Woodruff 5. OF-Corey Ray 6. IF-Mauricio Dubon 7. IF-Isan Diaz 8. RHP-Marcos Diplan 9. IF-Lucas Erceg 10. OF-Brett Phillips 11. RHP-Jorge Lopez 12. OF-Trent Clark 13. RHP-Phil Bickford 14. OF-Ryan Cordell 15. RHP-Freddy Peralta 16. RHP-Corbin Burnes 17. RHP-Cody Ponce 18. RHP-Jacob Barnes 19. C-Jacob Nottingham 20. IF-Gilbert Lara 21. RHP-Josh Pennington 22. LHP-Brent Suter 23. IF-Ronnie Gideon 24. OF-Clint Coulter 25. OF-Michael Reed 26. RHP-Damien Magnifico 27. LHP-Kodi Medeiros 28. OF-Monte Harrison 29. C-Mariano Feliciano 30. OF-Kyle Wren

I'd pass but it wouldn't be a questionable move if Stearns acquired Lawrie. The guy is talented and still only 27 years old. Biggest issue is that he'd have to come in with the attitude that he'd be a backup at 3B/2B but would get a fair chance of competing for playing time and a starting spot if he got off to a great start. With Lawrie and Gennett as infielders it would kick Perez to a backup outfield spot but he still gives the Brewers a third player that can play shortstop after Arcia and Villar. The Brewers still have spots on the 25 man roster where they could use quality bats. Again, I wouldn't be that interested but acquiring Lawrie would make some sense.

Hanley Ramirez and Pedro Sandoval are the 3B/DH combo for the Red Sox but there has been some criticism from the Boston sportswriters that Swihart should have been tried at 3B following the Shaw trade instead of putting him behind the plate. Based on what I've read about his batting ceiling and his defense, 3B does seem like it might be the best fit for him.

Boston probably won't be making any big salary acquisitions. They worked to get under the luxury tax threshold and trading Clay Buchholz was the last move to achieve that. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/12/07/massarotti-dombrowski-now-tasked-with-shedding-salary-to-get-red-sox-under-luxury-tax/ http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/clay_buchholz_trade_helps_red.html http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/12/20/massarotti-trading-clay-buchholz-doesnt-help-red-sox-in-2017/ I very much doubt the ownership/front office decides to reverse course now when they are in position to reset the luxury tax clock to zero. They probably would be much more interested in Guerra rather than more established and more expensive starter. I still think they are fine with what they have, should just go with what they have and save trade chips to trade for pitching later if need be.

I don't think the Red Sox should do anything: -Rick Porcello -Chris Sale -Steven Wright -Drew Pomeranz -Eduardo Rodriguez If Wright and Pomeranz are OK (both are throwing without pain), then they are fine in the rotation. Granted, they are thin and another injury would cause some problems, but I'd hold my cards until an injury happened. If anything, I would have been uncomfortable not having Rodriguez in the rotation and a Price injury allows me to put him in the #5 spot. The Red Sox have enough in their minor league system to get something done later if need be. No reason for them to panic.