JosephC

At the start of the off-season the Rangers where talking about transitioning Choo to DH. Choo is under contract for four more years, so if he's occupying the DH spot then the Rangers couldn't transition Braun there later in his career (2019?). Then the Rangers offered Encarnacion a contract which indicated the Rangers might not be locked into the idea of Choo being the primary DH. Then Napoli signed the one year deal which probably means that he and Choo split DH in 2017. Braun likely wouldn't be asked to DH at all in 2017 so the Choo/Napoli situation wouldn't directly affect his defensive outlook but how much did adding Napoli's bat devalue another big bat addition? I don't know if the Rangers need to add a player like Braun. Personally I would have played it as sink-or-swim time for Gallo, would stick him in at first base, kick Napoli to DH (probably wouldn't have signed him at all) and kicked Choo back to the outfield (or stuck with him at DH if Napoli wasn't signed). Depth charts on official team websites don't necessarily mean anything but right now the Ranger's site lists Jurickson Profar as their starting left fielder which is probably where the Braun speculation started. Before the Napoli signing I had predicted this: Texas gets: OF-Ryan Braun 12 million dollars Milwaukee gets: 1B-Ronald Guzman (Rangers #7 prospect - Baseball America) LHP-Joel Palumbo (Rangers #9 prospect - Baseball America) 3B-Kole Enright (3rd round pick in 2016) But now I think the Rangers would look to unload one of their major leaguers to free up the outfield spot that Braun would take. Napoli (also DH)/Gallo (maybe), Odor, Beltre, Andrus have the starting infield positions locked down. Profar gets booted to the outfield. They have Profar, Gomez, Mazara, Choo (also DH) and then DeShields/Rua for that final OF spot. I think if they make a trade for Braun now they would be looking to make Profar the centerpiece of the trade. Crazy scenario to when looking at trade that involves Braun and Profar because future projections for these players are very difficult. My current guess would be something like: Rangers get: OF-Ryan Braun 9 million dollars Brewers get: UTL-Jurickson Profar LHP-Joel Palumbo (Rangers #9 prospect - Baseball America) RHP-Jonathan Hernandez (Rangers #18 prospect - MLB.com) If you play the surplus value game I have Profar valued at 6 million, Palumbo at 10 million and Hernandez at 5 million.

I tend to agree. I realize the methodology here and if the WARP's are added up it would get the team to the area of 75/76 wins. But if the Brewers don't have a single superstar position player, only 3 position players that hit the 2 WARP level, and only 1 pitcher that exceeds 1 WARP...under those circumstances it's hard for me to believe the team could even reach the 70 win plateau.

I hope the Rays keep all of their starters (although I think there is a good chance they deal Odorizzi). That staff could be really, really interesting.

The strike zone doesn't need to get any smaller. If they want to raise the bottom two inches they should also raise the top two inches. I don't think this rule will result in more balls in play. They may want to get the size of the strike zone to be the size of a postage stamp but that doesn't mean pitchers are going to try to hit that postage stamp with every pitch. Seems to me this will just result in more bases on balls and longer at-bats.

I haven't been very impressed with the Dodgers offseason but it has nothing to do with Braun. I agree with the idea of going for a second baseman over another outfielder. As big of a pain as Puig has been at times, he is still talented and a big bounce-back is not out of the question. The Trayce Thompson/Andrew Toles combination is interesting. Andre Either is likely over-the-hill, but he still should perform no lower than a serviceable level if he's healthy. Add in Pederson and there is enough there to get by and perhaps be really good. But at second base, they really needed to make a move there. But I'm not a fan of the Rich Hill deal. He's been very good lately but a 3-year deal to a pitcher who will turn 37 before next season starts and has had a total of 1 MLB season of 111+ innings pitched. Considering they have such a logjam of starters this seemed like a really risky and unnecessary signing. And as good as Kenley Jansen has been, going 5 years and 80 million dollars on a reliever is really questionable...just too many ways that can blow up and turn into a bad contract.

I think this is a pretty even deal. From the Dodgers perspective I would have preferred Dozier but he was going to cost more (rightfully so) and I believe Forsythe is a good fallback plan at a lesser price. He fills their second base hole with a right-handed bat and has pretty good pop in the bat for a middle infielder. With the excess of starting options it made sense for the Dodgers to move one and De Leon had the right combination of enough talent to get something of real value back but not with so much upside that he becomes a guy you refuse to let go of. The Rays don't have enough hitting to compete IMO, but they have Archer, Odorizzi, Snell and De Leon in the rotation and Colome at the back of the bullpen and those five guys all have at least 3 years of team control remaining. If those guys all hit their ceilings this pitching staff could be lights out in the near future.

Garza had 2 million deferred from each of his guaranteed contract years. So Garza is still owed 8 million dollars in deferred money which doesn't make him attractive for a team that would be trading for him. If the 2018 option is picked up his pay is 10.5 million in 2017, 7 million in 2018, 2 million in 2019, 2 million in 2020 and 2 million in 2021...23.5 million for two contract years. Garza is pretty strongly in negative value territory and the Brewers would have to eat a whole bunch of this money if they could work out a trade for him, and if that happened they'd still likely only land one "role player" type prospect.

Straily likely pitched way over his head last year but I still like this deal more for the Marlins. Castillo is the only prospect the Reds got back that interests me, and he was a 23 year old that spent almost all of last year in A ball. Baseball America had him as the Marlin's #2 prospect but he's in a really, really weak farm system. Other two prospects look like real long shots to make a notable contribution at the major league level. I expect Straily to regress considerably next year (brewcrewdue80 is on the money with projecting him as a back-end starter), but he should fill out one of the back end spots of the Marlin's rotation quite nicely even if the 4.3 WAR he posted for the Reds last year is cut in half.

I feel pretty confident that Shaw will have enough pop in his bat to stick in the lineup if he gets on base enough. OBP seems to be the biggest question mark. I'd guess he'll slash something like .240/.310/.440. If that OBP dips too far below that he won't stick as a regular. If he gets it above .320 he'll probably be in there most everyday. If he does a good job hitting righties, the Brewers could keep him in there against lefties even if he's struggling for experience purposes. Maybe the most intriguing aspect of this team are the corner infielders.

I don't think Toronto has a contract to match up with Milwaukee so IMO Attanasio would have to write the Blue Jays a 22 million dollar check to even this deal up (the deferred money plus the buyout amount of the option year). It would bring the Blue Jays commitment down to 58 million over 4 years and Braun would only need to be about a 6.5 WAR over those four years to make it worth it from the financial standpoint. Kicking in that amount of money should bring back a pretty good return. I put Braun's surplus value in the 8-10 million range and when looking at that plus 22 million it is pretty close to what I would estimate the surplus value of the prospects you named: Reid-Foley = 15.6 million, Tellez = 10 million, Pentecost = 5 million.

Cain has 10/5 rights which kills any deal to Milwaukee. He would likely demand the option year be guaranteed which would make it a 2 year, 41 million dollar contract and then a deal doesn't make any sense from the Brewer's end.

Love what the Mariners did today. Picked up Drew Smyly and Shae Simmons (high upside reliever not so different from somebody like Thornburg) and gave up LHP-Luiz Gohara and three role player prospects. Smyly had problems with the long-ball last year but the rest of his peripherals appear pretty solid...like him as a strong bounce-back candidate if he avoids injury.

Very unlikely that Braun would end up in Philadelphia. Latest reports are saying that Philadelphia are looking for a veteran LEFT-HANDED hitting outfielder.

Braun makes zero sense for the Phillies. Can't see that one happening. He does make a ton of sense for Toronto. At first glance it would seem like a sure thing that Braun would veto a trade to Toronto, but his wife is from there so it probably can't be completely ruled out. If it were to happen though, it's very likely that Braun would demand the option year be turned into a player option which would give both sides another hurdle to get over.

Word is that the Dodgers are being really stingy with their prospects. I don't blame them, but as you note, they seem to be low balling teams. However, the deal with Oakland they made last summer wasn't anything to sneeze at. In the end, I imagine it will be DeLeon and a couple of lower level guys. They are reluctant to give up guys they think could be all-star level players. I don't think they see DeLeon as a top of the rotation guy, but Alvarez and Buehler have that kind of potential (even if they are a lot further away from the majors). The Dodgers should be peddling Willie Calhoun - he's a DH/LF type best suited for the AL. Calhoun makes sense in this deal. Dodgers get: 2B-Brian Dozier Twins get: RHP-Jose De Leon 2B/LF/DH-Willie Calhoun RHP-Brock Stewart Would be good value for the Twins that includes two potential starting pitchers...the Dodgers get Dozier without giving up one critical piece considering their excess of controllable starting pitching plus a bat that might not even fit in the NL.

De Leon straight-up for Dozier is a low-ball offer from the Dodger's end. If those are the types of offers they are giving this off-season they won't be making a trade with anyone. When comparing packages the Twins/Brewers would get back from the Dodgers one has to remember that McCarthy was also included in the Milwaukee deal. He makes a big difference as he is complete dead money to LA and essentially reduces the amount of Braun money by 25%.

Miami's outfield looks OK to me and their starters are all controlled through 2019. I don't think Puig makes sense for them. Would be a nice insurance policy considering they've had some injury problems with outfielders, but I don't think it's a big enough need for them to throw a top prospect into a trade.

All depends on how you value McCutchen and Quintana. In the last four seasons McCutchen's WAR has dropped from 8.1 to 6.3 to 4.9 to -0.7. He probably isn't a centerfielder anymore. Last year he slashed .256/.336/.430/.766 and had all sorts of nagging injury problems. What most concerns me is the Pirates are attempting to contend because they are going after Quintana who will cost a boatload...but at the same time they want to deal McCutchen which doesn't make sense if they view him as a valuable piece. If he's moved to a corner outfield spot and plays average defense and slashes something like .265/.340/.460/.800 he's certainly has value but is no longer superstar quality. I've projected McCutchen as a +3.3 WAR player in 2017 and a +3.0 WAR player in 2018 which would bring his dollar value to 54.12 million over the two seasons. He is scheduled to make 28.5 million so his surplus value is +25.62. He has good positive value but does not have elite type value unless he returns to a 4.5 - 5.0 WAR player and I don't see it happening. But anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's guess so who knows? Quintana holds absolute top value IMO. Four straight seasons with 200+ innings pitched and in those four seasons has posted WARs of 5.4, 3.5, 4.0, 5.2. He is only 27 years old and is under contract for 4 more seasons at a bargain rate. The last two seasons are team options so if there is a significant arm injury the club can walk away for an insignificant buyout (1 million). I've projected him with WARs of 4.3, 4.3, 4.0, 3.6 over the next four seasons which would put him at a value of 145.32 million. His contract over that timeframe will pay him 35.35 million. I have his surplus value at +109.97 million and in terms of trade value...even after reviewing the numbers I see him as having more than 4 times the value of Andrew McCutchen. Nobody is going to get Quintana out of Chicago unless the White Sox get back a king's ransom for him.

I'd project Quintana as a 4.3, 4.3, 4.0, 3.6 WAR player over the next four years which would put his surplus value at +109.97 million. I'll give McCutchen the benefit of a doubt and project him to be a 3.3 and 3.0 WAR player over the next two years. Surplus value = +25.62 million. Where I would slot Pirates prospects: OF-Austin Meadows = 62.0 million 1B-Josh Bell = 62.0 million RHP-Tyler Glasnow = 39.0 million RHP-Mitch Keller = 39.0 million SS-Kevin Newman = 38.2 million 3B-Ke'Bryan Hayes = 20.6 million SS-Cole Tucker = 10 million 3B-Will Craig = 10 million LHP-Steven Brault = 10 million 5 million dollar surplus value players start after that group Yankees prospects: OF-Clint Frazier = 62.0 million SS-Gleyber Torres = 62.0 million OF-Blake Rutherford = 38.2 million SS-Jorge Mateo = 22.4 million OF-Aaron Judge = 22.4 million RHP-James Kaprielian = 16.5 million LHP-Justus Sheffield = 15.6 million 3B-Migual Andujar = 10 million RHP-Domingo Acevedo = 10 million RHP-Albert Abreu = 10 million RHP-Dillon Tate = 10 million OF-Dustin Fowler = 10 million RHP-Chance Adams = 10 million 5 million dollar surplus values start after that group Projected trade: Pittsburgh Pirates get: LHP-Jose Quintana (from White Sox) OF-Charlie Tilson (from White Sox) - MLB.com #11 White Sox prospect LHP-Brian Clark (from White Sox) - MLB.com #22 White Sox prospect RHP-Drew Finley (from Yankees) - MLB.com #18 Yankees prospect New York Yankees get: OF-Andrew McCutchen (from Pirates) Chicago White Sox get: OF-Austin Meadows (from Pirates) - Baseball America #1 Pirates prospect RHP-Mitch Keller (from Pirates) - Baseball America #2 Pirates prospect SS-Jorge Mateo (from Yankees) - Baseball America #4 Yankees prospect

If this happens the White Sox could jump the Brewers as having the best minor league system in terms of prospects. Wouldn't be as deep as Milwaukee, but as far as top level talent they would be absolutely loaded (which it should be if you are trading guys like Sale and Quintana).

The Rangers were one of the finalists for Encarnacion so we'll see if they will ask about Braun. The Rangers had a big hole at DH last year but the talk was that they would eventually look to move Choo there, which made the pursuit of Encarnacion somewhat surprising. They obviously feel they need another big bat in the lineup if they were after Encarnacion. What makes this deal tough is that the Rangers really cleared out their farm system last year. There are still some really attractive pieces left but it's weak enough where I feel they would probably take their top hitting and pitching prospects off the table right from the beginning (Tavares, Ibanez, Mendez, Jurado). The Rangers also don't have a bad contract to dump on the Brewers, so Attanasio would have to write Texas a big check to get anything worthwhile back in the trade. To approve this trade Braun would probably ask that the team option be turned into a player option in 2021. In this type of deal I don't think either team would be motivated to throw more money at him because there aren't any high profile names going to Milwaukee which would make the Brewers more hesitant to add even more money. I have no idea what Braun's relationship is with Lucroy and Gomez...but it's Dallas/Fort Worth (5th biggest television market), a state with no income tax (probably means an additional $3,000,000 to him over the life of his contract) and a chance to play for a winner. I think he'd be nuts to turn down the opportunity but if he would it kills this deal. Texas gets: OF-Ryan Braun 12 million dollars Milwaukee gets: 1B-Ronald Guzman LHP-Joel Palumbo (#9 prospects in Rangers system on the Baseball America update) 3B-Kole Enright (3rd round pick in 2016) Personally I wouldn't be very happy with this deal. I would be happy with a deal if Stearns could get both 1B-Guzman and RHP-Ariel Jurado out of the Rangers which I don't think would happen but wouldn't be totally out of the question.

Encarnacion is probably pretty safe to apply the 0.5 decrease in WAR every year because, since defense doesn't figure into his equation, he would probably be less susceptible to large variances due to added defensive declines. If that is assumed Encarnacion is 3.2, 2.7 and 2.2 WAR over the next three years which would put his value at 70.88 million. After subtracting out the guaranteed portion of his deal his surplus value is roughly 5-6 million dollars...I've figured Braun is probably 8-9 million dollars and I'd say that's close enough where it's probably a wash. The Indian's do forfeit their first round pick which should be figured into the equation. Since it's so late in the round the prospect will probably figure to be classified as a "top 10 organizational prospect" type...personally I'd put surplus value for a player like that at 10 million. That is probably Braun's worth strictly when looking at a straight up Braun for prospect(s) swap, Braun for 1 "top 10 organizational prospect" or a couple "role player prospects."

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dodgers-twins-standstill-dozier-trade-talks/ Sounds like the Dodgers/Twins trade talks may be breaking down. RHP-De Leon is available, but the Dodgers are not willing to deal OF/1B-Bellinger and it doesn't sound like they are willing to include RHP-Alvarez or RHP-Buehler in a deal that already includes De Leon. No word on if OF-Verdugo is under consideration (I see him as the last "top shelf" piece the Dodgers have that could be included in a deal). Dozier has averaged 4.7 WAR over the last three years and comes at a bargain price of 15 million over the last two years, for the Twins to demand De Leon + Alvarez OR De Leon + Buehler + 2 more prospects is not at all unreasonable.

Will be interesting to see if this deal works out. Assuming 1 WAR = 8.4 million dollars in 2017, Bucholz has to perform at a 1.6+ WAR level to make this deal worth it in terms of dollars. He was a 2.7 WAR player in 2015 but dropped off to 0.2 WAR last year. He is 32 and still talented so will likely rebound, although getting back to 2015 form is pretty unlikely.

I don't think there is any posturing involved, it's just that now we are in the off-season and the Dodgers have so many additional avenues to improve their roster for 2017. They need one more big right-handed bat to stick in the middle of the lineup. Once they do that I think they will be happy with their roster. I don't think it matters to them if that bat is an outfielder or second baseman, once they add one more big bat to Grandal, Gonzalez, Turner, Seager, Pederson I think they will feel pretty good about the lineup. Dozier seems to be choice #1 right now, personally I think that's the right move for them and if it happens then Braun to the Dodgers very likely will not happen. But if they can't get a deal for Dozier done then I think either Braun or J.D. Martinez will be the next two players they look at. I think they will actually see Martinez's one year of control as a positive as it gives them more flexibility in trying to get under the luxury cap in future years. But there would be two big advantages with Braun. First, even though Braun would probably be most fairly evaluated as a "below average" defender, that's still worlds better than J.D. Martinez who was an absolute butcher in right field last year (-22 DRS, -21.5 UZR/150, career negative in both DRS and UZR/150 in both LF and RF). There were also reports that the Tigers were looking to keep payroll down, so the other big Braun advantage is that it would probably be much easier for the Dodgers to dump McCarthy on the Brewers.