JosephC

The 19th best prospect in the Ranger's organization?

If true that means Stearns does not want to trade Jeffress at all because that's a ridiculous asking price. I have no problem with that, Jeffress may be better as a hold rather than a sell. I also question the report. If Stearns asked for RHP-Chris Paddack and two more players from the Marlins, who were those other two players? 1B-Josh Naylor and RHP-Tyler Kolek? More likely Paddack was the centerpiece of that deal and while his stock has risen dramatically since the beginning of the year he's not a top 100 guy and would probably be considered borderline as a top 10 organizational guy for teams that have an above average minor league system. Also as a side note, it looks like Paddack has come down with some type of arm problem and is out pending an evaluation by the team doctor. Could be a non-serious forearm strain type injury, could be a more serious elbow problem.

There were some reports maybe 6 weeks ago that the Dodgers were unsure of Puig's future and might be interested in moving him. His OPS has dropped every year and his 2016 slash is .255/.316/.376/.693. Not very good for a left fielder. As of this morning Dodger left fielders are 22th in MLB in OPS and their right fielders are 26th in OPS. Trayce Thompson had actually given them a pretty good boost but really went south when he started to have back problems. If the Dodgers have decided to move on from Puig, someone like Braun makes a lot of sense for them. And if Braun had his pick of any MLB team to play for, the Dodgers very likely would sit at #1 on his list (along with the Angels where he could occasionally DH which would be an obvious benefit considering where he is in his career). Any team that would deal for Braun will demand that the Brewers pick up some of his salary. I'd guess even the big money teams would demand the Brewers pick up the 18 million that has been deferred. I'm not a big fan of adding players with as much MLB experience as Puig in these rebuilding years but he is still owed 14 million (6.5 M in 2017 and 7.5 M in 2018) and I'd definitely prefer to get him and assume that 14 million rather than just eat money. The Brewers would probably have to kick in a bit more cash to essentially buy prospects from the Dodgers as part of the deal but it wouldn't be ridiculous sums. Puig could be a attractive bounce-back prospect if he's put in Miller Park. I'm not saying Puig is an essential piece in a deal for either the Brewers or the Dodgers, just wanted to say that it could make sense for both sides if he's included in a deal. I'm in the camp that would like to see Braun moved as quickly as possible because his thumb/back worry me and he just doesn't fit here anymore considering the rebuild. I'm all for holding Lucroy and the relievers if the value in a deal isn't there. Braun would be dealt at the first somewhat reasonable opportunity. It would just be best for the franchise and for him. I agree with many of the folks above, RHP-Grant Holmes appears to be the most logical piece going to the Brewers. He's an excellent prospect with great upside, but his fringy control might limit him to the bullpen. He's a guy that the Brewer might love because he has talent and upside, but the Dodgers might see him as an unessential piece because there's a pretty good chance he'd be nothing more than a reliever. No matter what kind of deal gets done between the two teams, I'd guess Holmes would end up with Milwaukee.

I'd guess something like RHP-Ariel Jurado and 1B-Ronald Guzman. I just don't think Jeffress value is all that great. I'd love to be wrong about that.

Can I ask why you prefer the lower ceiling players in these two spots? Kaminsky is likely a BOR starter and Clevinger is most likely a MOR type guy while Aiken has ace potential, Bradley has middle of the order power bat potential and Hillman is a "get him before he blows up" type prospect. We have more than enough Kaminsky and Clevinger types in this system already. Honestly, I don't see any major difference is between Zach Davies and those two and we got Davies for 3 months of Gerardo Parra, not 1.5 years of Jonathan Lucroy. I mean, Kaminsky got traded straight up for Brandon Moss just last year. I have no problem taking lower ceiling players if the mix is right. I'd tend to disagree with that assessment of Clevinger. He's a big guy, hard thrower, a couple plus pitches and two more that are close. Dismissed as a high ceiling guy largely because of his age (25), but an elbow injury set him back and it seems he's just starting to refine those secondary pitches now. Crapped out a brief MLB appearance this year but his AAA and AA stats from 2015 and 2016 look promising. He wasn't a top 100 guy at the beginning of the year but Baseball America has him at #71 on their midseason ranking. Would agree that Kaminsky is a low ceiling guy, but he has a solid makeup and I think he can stick on an MLB roster. Remember the Brewers would land McKenzie as part of this package and I like the combination of the three. It's nice to grab some of those young lottery ticket types, but it's also smart to invest in some of those solid guys who are a little further along too.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2016/07/cleveland_indians_miss_on_arol_1.html#incart_river_index Not sure if this has already been posted. Cleveland writer thinks the Indian's untouchables are OF-Clint Frazier and LHP-Justus Sheffield. OF-Bradley Zimmer may or may not be an untouchable. Even if all three of these players are removed I think there is enough quality here to make a deal. If I was Stearns I'd throw in a reliever and then demand the following: 1. C-Francisco Mejia 2. One of the following : 1B-Bobby Bradley, RHP-Brady Aiken, RHP-Mike Clevinger (I'd prefer Clevinger) 3. RHP-Triston McKenzie 4. LHP-Rob Kaminsky OR LHP-Juan Hillman (I'd prefer Kaminsky) Personally I'd rather have one of those two outfielders and only do a deal with three higher quality pieces coming back rather than four...but I'd still be pretty happy with the above scenario. Indian's keep their untouchables, get a premier player...Brewers get back two legitimate top 100 players plus a pitcher in McKenzie with huge upside plus a fourth piece that is a very, very legitimate prospect (how often is the fourth piece as good as this fourth piece would be??).

Stearns probably does have his asking price too high currently because it's Monday and even if he's dead set on dealing Lucroy he doesn't have to do it until Sunday. It would suck to "settle" for something now and find out a team like Texas would have increased their offer. Stearns' asking price very well could come down later in the week and still net an excellent return for Lucroy. It's all a game of chicken right now. Based on the Chapman trade it looks like the Cubs blinked early, doesn't appear that will happen with the Brewers and the Indians.

It might actually make more sense to hold onto Jeffress for another year. The trading team would have one less year of control...but Jeffress value might be even higher if the Brewers could sell the fact that Jeffress has been a closer for 1.5 season instead of just 0.5 season. If he's still pitching well (and that's the big gamble from the Brewer's end), the closer experience outweighs the of years of control IMO. In a pennant race, I really doubt a team would worry too much about having 3.5 years of control versus 2.5 years. Having three times the amount of experience as a closer could really push up his value.

When these rumors first broke I thought for sure there would be another MLB piece from the Yankees heading to Chicago along with Chapman. Chapman might be the best reliever in the game, but giving up a top 50 prospect along with another organizational top 10 type is a big price to pay for a reliever. Happy to see it as a Brewer fan though. It takes the Indians out of the Chapman sweepstakes. I have to think that the Cubs and Chapman get an extension done, and if the Cubs end up dumping 60+ million into a relief pitcher that might not be a bad thing for the Brewers either. Chapman is a dominant force, but is very reliant on velocity so one injury could turn it into a bad investment rather quickly.

Mets are a bad fit for a Lucroy deal. The only way I'd do a deal with them is if they included both of their top prospects (1B-Dominic Smith, SS-Amed Rosario) and it's unlikely that they would include both of those players. There is just not a whole lot of quality depth in their system when factoring in the injuries to SS-Luis Carpio and RHP-Marcos Molina. Someone suggested LHP-Thomas Szapucki in a different thread, I kind of like that. Lowest I'd go would be Lucroy for 1B-Dominic Smith, SS-Amed Rosario and LHP-Thomas Szapucki but I don't see the Mets having any interest in doing that.

After looking through some of the numbers I just don't think the Brewer relievers have that much value. Jeffress current WAR for this season is 0.6, placing him 49th among relievers. Last year his WAR was 0.8 and his lifetime MLB WAR is 2.0. He doesn't have a long history of closing games. Will Smith current WAR for this season is 0.2, his season high WAR was last year and it was 1.4, career MLB WAR is 3.3. Thornburg's WAR this season is 0.9, best among the Brewer relievers and 21st in MLB. But last year his MLB WAR was -0.3 so there is no track record of consistency with him. When you throw these names out there with the flood of relievers that will be available, I really don't see these resumes really distinguishing themselves. I'd argue that getting a top 100 prospect for any of them would be a major stretch. I think what the Brewers would likely get are a "top 10 organizational prospect" plus a real long-shot prospect or 2 solid "role player prospects" plus a real long-shot prospect. I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to see the Brewers get a much better return for these players than I am anticipating. I still think their value might be maximized best if included as part of a bigger trade.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2016/07/roberto_perez_gets_in_hit_colu.html#incart_river_index Cleveland papers reporting that Lucroy talks are wavering. Also said that it's believed that the Brewers are trying to package a reliever along with Lucroy in a deal.

Chapman is way above the Jeffress/Smith class of relief pitchers. He's a player that would for sure return at least one top 100 prospect. But if the Indians give up Zimmer or Frazier in a Chapman deal then they are nuts not to make a move for Lucroy instead unless Stearns asking price is totally ridiculous. Keith Law is reporting that if Chapman goes to the Nationals that the return would be RHP-Erick Fedde (#61 in Baseball America's midseason rankings), RHP-Koda Glover (#19 in National's system accordng to MLB.com) and one more prospect. That looks about right to me. One prospect in the 50-100 range plus two more "role player" types. Chapman will be the best relief pitcher on the market, but he clearly is a rental and a pretty high priced one at that (11+ million salary this year). The team that trades for him would have to take on almost another 4 million in salary unless the Yankees pick up a bunch of it. That may not be a big deal for big market teams, but it could be a factor for a team like Cleveland. I'm actually kind of surprised if the Yankees do become sellers. They are now 2 games over .500 and only 4.5 out of the last wildcard spot. Strange for a big market team to become sellers in that type of situation.

Who knows how Stearns stacks the players in the Indian's organization? But I'm guessing Mejia is no longer in the same group as a player like Diaz. Looking at rankings from Baseball America and MLB.com, I'm guessing the Indian's system stacks up as follows: Group 1: OF - Clint Frazier (top 50 prospect) OF - Bradley Zimmer (top 50 prospect) Group 2: 1B - Bobby Bradley (top 100 prospect) LHP - Brady Aiken (top 100 prospect) LHP - Justus Sheffield (top 100 prospect) C- Francisco Mejia (top 100 prospect) RHP - Mike Clevinger (top 100 prospect) Group 3: LHP - Rob Kaminsky (organizational top 10 prospect) RHP - Triston McKenzie (organizational top 10 prospect) LHP - Juan Hillman (organizational top 10 prospect) Note : Organizational top 10 prospect does not mean I ended group 3 because 10 players had been reached. If it seemed like prospects 11, 12 and 13 would have fit in the top 10 of most MLB organizations then they would have been included in group three. On the flip side, in a reasonably weak organization there would only be three or four players included the first three groups (see Detroit). Group 4: 2B - Mark Mathis (role player) SS - Yu-Cheng Chang (role player) 3B - Yandy Diaz (role player) OF - Mike Papi (role player) SS - Erik Gonzalez (role player) SS - Tyler Krieger (role player) RHP - Adam Plutko (role player) LHP - Shawn Morimando (role player) OF - Greg Allen (role player) 1B - Nellie Rodriguez (role player) RHP - Shawn Armstrong (role player) LHP - Luis Lugo (role player) SS - Willi Castro (role player) SS - Luke Wakamatsu (role player)

I'd say Smith is a pretty good comparable to Miller. Good point bringing up Miller, the Brewers may be able to get more for Smith than I anticipated. Don't know if I would put Smith and Jeffress in the same class as Soria, as I believe he had already piled up 150+ saves at that point and had a multi-year track record of being able to close games. But the difference in the length of control is a factor that could be used to argue comparable value, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to suggest that.

Agree with the idea that the return for Braun will be largely based on how much money the Brewers eat in a deal. If the Brewers don't kick in at least 18 million (all the deferred money), then I don't think the return will be that great. That's just the way the trade game is played these days. If I was trading for Braun I wouldn't have concerns regarding the PED thing but would have serious concerns over the thumb and back issues. Even if he stays relatively healthy, based on 2014-2016 one would have have to assume that he will likely miss 25+ games per season over the rest of his career. I'm all for keeping Lucroy, Jeffress and Smith if the value is not there in trade proposals. But Braun is the player I will deal at the earliest opportunity. With the contract, the thumb and back issues, he's way to risky to keep in the midst of a rebuilding project.

I'd be surprised if Smith returned a top 100 prospect. Maybe one at the bottom of the list but if that happens it's very unlikely another player would be included in the package. Problem is that there are probably already 10 teams that have made just about every one of their relievers available and the market will be flooded with candidates. It's rumored that Stearns asked for Chris Paddack and two more prospects in return for Jeffress and apparently it took the Marlins about 1 day to find a suitable substitution at a lesser price tag. I still think the way to maximize the value of Jeffress and Smith is to include them in a bigger trade. My gut feeling is that's why Stearns put such a high price tag on Jeffress earlier in the month...he wanted to save the relievers until a later date so he could use them to leverage more value out of a Lucroy or Braun trade if those would occur. If we get to July 29 and nothing is happening on the Lucroy or Braun front, then Stearns might be more inclined to drop the price tag and deal those relievers in separate deals. But Jeffress and Smith aren't exactly players who are breaking the bank, Stearns might be perfectly content to hold onto both of them for the foreseeable future.

Cleveland has enough talent where I think the Brewers could get proper value back for Lucroy without including Frazier or Zimmer in the trade. But if Cleveland subtracted Frazier/Zimmer from a deal then I would subtract Smith and ask them to include LHP-Justus Sheffield and one other fairly significant piece (in addition to C-Mejia and LHP-Hillman). If the Indians want Will Smith back in the deal then the other fairly significant piece could get upgraded to someone like LHP-Rob Kaminsky. But I think it makes more sense for Cleveland to include Frazier or Zimmer. MLBTradeRumors had a piece up where they talked about Cleveland's outfield in 2017 and 2018 being Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Frazier/Zimmer, Jose Ramirez (super utility man)...it seems to make more sense to give up one of the outfielders and not have a blockbuster trade suck too much young pitching out of their organization.

That's pretty close to what I'm thinking. I don't think the subtraction of Greg Allen and the addition of C-Francisco Mejia to the deal is unreasonable for two reasons. My proposal adds Will Smith to the trade, which should provide an significant upgrade to the "second or third chips" added into the deal. And Sabathia was only under team control for 0.5 season, whereas in this deal the Indians would control Lucroy for 1.5 seasons and Smith for 3.5 seasons. I can appreciate that Sabathia was a true staff ace and those players are worth their weight in gold, but Lucroy is an all-star catcher and when considering in the extra control involved I think the Brewers should get back about the equivalent of what they gave up for Sabathia if the package also includes Jeffress or Smith. One more note. I have no idea where Brantley would have ranked in the 2008 mid-season rankings but it definitely would have been far higher than it was in BA's 2008 Handbook. In the 2009 BA Handbook he was ranked #9 in Cleveland's system...I would make the assumption that he would have been viewed as a "organizational top 10 prospect" by the time the Indians made the choice between him or Green. So if you use the same definitions that I used earlier, the Indians got 1 "top 50 prospect," 1 "organizational top 10 prospect," 1 "role player" and 1 "throw-in" when dealing away Sabathia. By that point I think Zach Jackson's stock had fallen far enough where I wouldn't even put the "role player" tag on him.

If those are the best final offers that the Brewers receive for Lucroy then I'd keep him for the rest of this season and look to deal him in the off-season. There had been the reports of Jeffress to the Marlins for Chris Paddack prior to the Fernando Rodney deal. I'd guess Stearns is holding onto Jeffress and Smith until later in the month to see if the can get a bigger return from a trade partner if either of the relievers are included in a Lucroy or Braun trade. Either could be worth more to upgrade an blockbuster trade rather than the return they would bring if traded on their own. So with that idea in mind, most of what follows assumes an extra Brewer piece is added into a Lucroy trade. When the Brewers traded Gomez and Fiers the return was, according to Baseball America, a top 50 prospect (Phillips, who was ranked #21 in their 2015 mid-season rankings), two organizational top 10 prospects (from a system that was one of the 10 best in baseball) and a role player candidate. I am not ignoring that Fiers is a starter and that the Brewer bullpen trade candidates are relievers, but if the Brewers package Lucroy and Smith/Jeffress in a deal it should at least approach what they received in the Gomez/Fiers deal. Not necessarily be equal, but at least approach. I would say the only prospect listed above that qualifies as a top 50 prospect is Rafael Devers and he is paired with a role player candidate. The rest of the deals are 1 top 100 prospect + 1 organizational top 10 prospect + 1 or 2 role players. IMO the value isn't there in any of these deals to trade Lucroy. Lucroy is one of the three best catchers in the game IMO, has an extremely favorable contract and is controlled for 1.5 years. The Brewers need to do better. Return from Cleveland should be something like Lucory + Smith for OF-Clint Frazier (or substitute Bradley Zimmer), C-Francisco Mejia and LHP-Juan Hillman. Return from Texas should be something like Lucroy + Jeffress for OF-Lewis Brinson, RHP-Luis Ortiz and RHP-Ariel Jurado. If the Brewers can't get that now, hold onto Lucroy and, barring injury, they should be able to get a return of a top 100 prospect plus and top 10 organizational prospect plus a role player deal done in the off-season.

IMO no. Perez was very highly regarded entering the season but his stock has fallen to the point where several media outlets are reporting that he would be available in a trade. Martin is an excellent prospect but I've never seen him classified as an elite-type prospect by any of the experts out there. I really don't expect the Brewers to land any elite prospect in this deal outside of maybe Olt. However, it's perfectly reasonable that they could obtain two prospects in the next tier down for a talent like Greinke. I would put classify both Perez and Martin to be in that next tier down. Cody Buckel would definitely be in that group too and maybe Jorge Alfaro. I'm guessing that most scouts would rate Justin Grimm and Rougned Odor as being a little further down the list. If Olt is off the board, I'd hope the Brewers could land at least two guys off that list of Perez/Martin/Buckel/Alfaro (preferably from Perez/Martin/Buckel as Alfaro is borderline for being on that list). At absolute worst the Brewers should get one of Perez/Martin/Buckel and then both Grimm and Odor. If the Rangers aren't willing to do at least that, then chances are overwhelming that another team out there would be able to do better for Greinke's sevices. Note that Perez pitched against the Red Sox on Tuesday and only allowed 1 run in 6 innings.

Interesting that LHP-Martin Perez is getting mentioned as being available. If Olt is off the board I wonder if the Brewers could land the combo of Perez and RHP-Cody Buckel? It would be an interesting package. Perez is the super-high upside guy with has #1 potential but hasn't been that successful past A-ball. He's probably going to be great or be a total flop. Buckel doesn't have dazzling stuff but has very little downside, if he hits his upside he's a #2/#3 but even if he disappoints he probably sticks in a rotation for years as a #4 type. I could be happy with this type of a return but I wonder how interested Melvin would be? If Melvin doesn't figure he can rely on Perez in 2013 there isn't a MLB rotation ready pitcher in the return and I think that will still be a big priority for Doug. Texas' minor league system is loaded. I think it's very possible that they could pull Profar, Olt and all the major league "regulars" off the board and still submit the best offer for Greinke. Martin Perez, Cody Buckel, OF-Leonys Martin, C-Jorge Alfaro, RHP-Justin Grimm, RHP-Tanner Scheppers, SS-Rougned Odor...all players that I would have interest in if I was sitting in Melvin's chair. ----- Continued from: viewtopic.php?p=805511#p805511 Original Lead: viewtopic.php?t=28549

Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate to the Dodgers for Nathan Eovaldi and minor league RHP-Scott McGough.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7351782/2011-free-agency-aramis-ramirez-chicago-cubs-signs-milwaukee-brewers Ramirez gets $6 million next year, $10 million in 2013 and $16 million in 2014, of which $6 million is deferred. There is a $14 million mutual option for 2015 with a $4 million buyout. The deferred money from 2014 is due in two $3 million payments on Dec. 15 in 2017 and 2018. If the 2015 buyout money is paid, it would be owed in two $2 million payments on Dec. 15 in 2015 and 2016.

I've never heard any criticism regarding Olt's bat-speed. As far as I know it's actually a plus. Big knocks on Olt is that he'll go through stretches where he struggles with off-speed pitches and he's a minus-minus runner. Outside of those two things he appears to be pretty solid across the board. Of course any prospect could turn out to be a huge stiff, but my gut feeling is that if Olt is a disappointment he'll still hit enough homers and draw enough walks to keep a respectable OBP and justify his spot in the lineup. Maybe will turn out to be a bit disappointing with the batting average and will strike out more than you would like...but what he can do offensively combined with what should be plus-defense would still make him a solid player.