JosephC

Pomeranz was a negative bWAR and fWAR player last year and is a negative bWAR and fWAR player so far this year. Ray Black is 29 years old and has thrown a total of 25 1/3 MLB innings. If it took a top 5 prospect out of the Brewer's system to land these two guys, then the Brewer's system is worse that I thought. Really tough to argue with Baseball America's last place ranking.

Stearns may have just set the record for the highest number of crappy pitchers ever traded for in a 48 hour window. Total the 2019 MLB numbers for these guys and it's so bad that one just has to laugh. ERA = 5.33 WHIP = 1.56 FIP = 5.07 (assuming Fangraphs FIP constant of 3.23 is correct)

Yes, all depends on how Trammell turns out but the projections are still really high on him. In the updates, Trammell is #30 at the MLB Pipeline, #14 on Law's list, #41 at Baseball America. #14 = 79.8 million in surplus value, #30 = 62.0 million in surplus value, #41 = 49.3 million in surplus value. I just picked the middle number as it seems like a fair number. Law seems unreasonably high when taking into account what type of season Trammell is having. But extremely safe to put him solidly in the top 50 considering all three lists have him there. IMO, it would be nearly impossible to put his surplus value at anything less than 40 million. Even if putting a 40 million number on Trammell, the Reds still would come out at -20.4 million in surplus value in the deal. It looks like one of the more lop-sided trades I've seen since looking WAR/surplus value estimates. IMO, overpays can be fine depending on the situation. If the Reds were 1 game out instead of a 4th place team, then it makes more sense because the Reds get him for two stretch drives instead of one. But they are a 4th place team, 8 games under .500...so acquiring him for these next two months seems pointless to me. 25% of what they get is just a wasted asset IMO. It just doesn't seem to make sense to overpay in this situation.

Franmil Reyes is the toughest guy to evaluate here. He was never thought of as much of a prospect. So far he's been a 2.0 bWAR and a 2.6 fWAR player over right around 1 1/3 years of service time, which would make him a 1.7 WAR player. That could put him as being an 8 WAR player over the next 5 years which pushes to a level where probably no MLB team would put him at. But I think a 6 WAR total over the next 5 years is a pretty fair evaluation, and then doing a "knock-off" because 1.2 WAR/season players just aren't highly coveted. I'd put his surplus value at +27 million but I wouldn't be surprised if some teams would have him as high as 40 and other teams have him as low as 10-12. IMO, the rest of the numbers are pretty clear cut. The Reds looks like a loser by the figures. Reds = -42.4 million in surplus value Added - Bauer (+28.2) Subtracted - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Trammell (+62.0) Indians = +25.4 million in surplus value Added - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2) Subtracted - Bauer (+28.2) Padres = +17 million in surplus value Added - Trammell (+62.0) Subtracted - Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2)

Lyles just seems like a downgrade to me...which is saying something considering how bad the pitching staff has been at times. He has a reasonable career FIP, but has a long history (850 innings over 9 different seasons) of the run prevention numbers not matching the FIP. This guy is a career 5.29 ERA pitcher. He has a 5.36 ERA in 2019. He has a 10.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. The guy has a long history of being a bad MLB pitcher. I just look though the stats and it's hard to find anything that makes me think he's going to be a good pitcher over the remainder of this season. Who knows, it was hard to find much to like on Wade Miley's stat sheet when the Brewers picked him up...but generally bad pitchers remain bad pitchers and Lyles MLB resume is consistently bad. At least with Miley you could jump back to the 2012-2015 window where he was an unspectacular but pretty solid pitcher. Maybe Chris Hook can work his magic on Lyles.....

If a deal gets done with San Diego, I'd guess the deal would be Craig Stammen for a fringe prospect or two.

Yates has been connected to lots of teams and I would suspect the demand for him would be really high. Of pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year, Yates is #1 in ERA, #1 in FIP and #3 in xFIP. Hader slightly edges him in xFIP...but just to give an idea of how dominant Kirby has been, you could double his ERA and FIP and both would still be less than what Hader has posted. I think Kirby will very likely be valued at 4 WAR for the remainder of this season and next and will probably make about 8 million over that stretch. 4 WAR x 9 = 36 million - 8 million in salary = 28 million in surplus value. Normally I would say the Brewers would have to include Turang, but with the Padres looking 100% set with shortstop prospects...Turang probably doesn't have as much value to them as he would to the Brewers and other MLB clubs. Turang to San Diego doesn't seem like a greatest fit. I very much doubt that the Padres are looking at Grisham to play CF as the scouting reports all say LF, LF, LF and LF. Padres may very well have interest in Grisham, but unlikely that it would be as an immediate center field plug-and-go (unless they are just willing to play out the string with mediocre CF defense for the rest of this year). I don't think there is a deal to be made for Kirby. Maybe if San Diego still have a really high regard for Corbin Burnes....then maybe Burnes plus another top 4 or 5 prospect plus another solid role-player prospect. Burnes + Lutz + Supak? Maybe if they still really like Burnes.

There are plenty of pitchers out there that have posted some mediocre numbers, but I definitely would have wanted to pick up one that was pitching well as of late. Lyles has been beyond awful. Has a 10.00 ERA in his last 7 starts. They could have recalled Corbin Burnes if they wanted production like that. I wonder what the White Sox are demanding for Nova? Nova has equally ugly season numbers, but at least he's been pitching better lately.

My surplus value estimates for various prospect packages: -Turang and Zack Brown = 27.7 million -Kay and Woods-Richardson = 23.6 million -Zack Brown and Ashby = 13.6 million -Ashby and Rasmussen = 10.65 million

ERA is 4.97 with Grandal behind the plate. ERA is 3.73 with Pina behind the plate.

I might have been a bit light on Kay. Baseball America had him as a top 100 player and still rank him fourth in the Met's system. He's probably more around #125. That's 14.3 million on my board. Would slot Woods-Richardson at about #225 which would be 9.3 million. I have the two carrying 23.6 million in prospect surplus value. Deal still favors the Blue Jays, but not as lopsided as I originally thought. Value-wise it seems like a good deal for the Mets, but at the same time they've pretty much tipped their hand in that they want to deal rotation pieces and now one has to wonder if other teams will not feel any real urgency to overbid. All the deals so far are saying that this is a buyer's market.

Trade Value Site has Stroman at 28.4 million, Woods-Richardson at 7.1 million and Kay at 3.8 million. If that is the standard industry view, then the Mets just committed highway robbery. I would have had Stroman at about the same number, but would have had Kay and Richardson both in the #150-#250 area, which at the top end is 13.1 million and at the bottom end is 8 million. I'd also have this deal as favoring the Mets but not nearly as lop-sided as the Trade Value Site.

I don't see why the following scenario would be out of line for any of the following teams. Brewers obtain: LHRP - Will Smith Giants obtain: 2B-Mike Moustakas, 3 million dollars (to cover the mutual buyout) Brewers obtain: 3B-Todd Frazier, 1.5 million dollars Mets obtain: RHRP-Rodrigo Benoit Giants lose Will Smith but still have Melancon, Watson, Moronta and Dyson to pick up late innings. Giant's second basemen have slashed .243/.308/.329/.637, so adding Moustakas' .864 OPS seems like more than adequate compensation for losing the bullpen contributions of Smith. Brewers remove an .864 OPS from the lineup and would be replacing it with a .773 OPS with some upside moving from Citi Field to Miller Park. They obtain a major bullpen upgrade to go along with the lineup downgrade. Mets may be sending the Brewers 1.5 million but they still save 1.5 million in this swap and Frazier has no value to them at this point.

In Nova's first 9 starts this year he had games where he gave up 7, 6, 9, and 8 earned runs. He's totaled 48 1/3 innings, 46 hits, 19 earned runs, 9 home runs allowed, 11 walks, 30 strikeouts, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over his last 8 starts. The high full-season ERA and FIP totals might make him a pretty decent buy low candidate. He was a 4.16 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.27 WHIP pitcher from 2016-2018.

I don't see why this wouldn't be considered. Especially if Stearns is thinking that he won't resign Moustakas because the next off-season investments will be going towards pitching, not hitting. There is very little doubt that the Mets would likely give Todd Frazier away for next to nothing just to clear 3 million from their books. Frazier is hitting .246/.328/.445/.773 with half those games in a tough hitters park. His road OPS is .800. If the Brewers don't have the prospects to land pitching, I don't see why it would be such a crazy idea to use Moustakas to get some pitching and then trade a fringe prospect for Frazier. There is no question that his bat is a downgrade compared to Moustakas...but if Moustakas can bring back the pitching they need..... San Francisco has likely gone from seller to buyer, but if they like Moustakas as a 2B....that's one of their biggest holes and they have bullpen arms the Brewers could definitely use.

Price on that would probably be very low. Nova is a rental with a 5.23 ERA and a 5.22 FIP with an annual salary of 9.167 million dollars. No question that he's pitched much better lately, but he is still due 3+ million over the remainder of the season. I just don't see there being much interest in him on the market. I'd have him as having a very slight positive surplus value but it wouldn't be unreasonable to think he's actually a negative surplus value player. Colome has a 2.27 ERA but his FIP is 3.88 and his xFIP is 4.65. Pro-rate 2019 out to a full season....his bWAR over the last three season is 0.8, 1.1, 2.7....but his fWAR over the last three seasons is 1.2, 1.0, 0.8. Outside of the 2019 bWAR number, Colome has pretty mediocre value as far as the WAR calcluations go. And bWAR is more of a "run prevention" assessment, and Colome currently sits with a ridiculously low .150 BABIP number and a well below average 9.5 HR/FB% which are two key factors in really inflating the 2.7 bWAR he'd have at the end of this season. But let's just take all the bWAR/fWAR numbers from the last three years and the average is 1.3 WAR. He has one more season of team control after this one and will be arbitration eligible. So let's credit him with 0.5 WAR for the rest of this season and 1.3 WAR for next season...total 1.8 WAR. 2019 salary is 7.325 million (so roughly 2.44 million for the remainder of this season), and let's say he makes 9 million in arbitration next year. So 1.8 WAR times 9 million = 16.2 million - 11.44 million = +4.76 million in surplus value. I wouldn't think the combination of the two would demand anything much over 6 million in surplus value. I'd guess Micah Bello would be about the best prospect they would have to give up in a Colome/Nova deal. Also wouldn't be all that crazy to think that the Brewers might be able to use one of the droppers (Erceg or Stokes) as the main piece and then package two fringe players along with that. So I'd guess something like: Colome/Nova for OF-Micah Bello/RHP-Matt Hardy or Colome/Nova for 3B- Lucas Erceg/RHP-Adam Hill/RHP-Bubba Derby

Edit: They’ve issued the following update... Ummmmm….instead of trying to validate their website by trying to make out every trade to be even according to their numbers, why don't they just say the Royals sold low on Diekman because I'd bet that's what 95% of MLB fans out there are thinking right now.

I'm with you on Roark. I was a Wheeler fan but the shoulder stuff scares me. Roark is solid and it's hard for me to believe he'd be valued much over 1 WAR for just a two-month stretch. He also gets paid a pretty fair amount. He could fall in that gap where the big market teams just don't think he's attractive enough and the small market teams might not want to pay him the 3+ million he's still due this year. Not crazy to think that a team might be able to get him for just a couple fringe prospects.

Supak is going to get screwed in this deal because he's always profiled as a #5 or maybe #4 starter based on his stuff. Scouts/evaluators will be stuck in that scouting report as long as Supak's K/9 rate remains rather ordinary. It's just the environment we are in. I'm coming around to the idea that he's vastly under-rated and under-valued and he's clearly moved into the "hold" category. As ordinary as the K/9 rate is, his K/BB ratio is just a shade under 4 and that's way more than good enough for me to be pretty excited about him.

Turang is #81 on the Pipeline Top 100 list. I'd bet if BA expanded the list to top 110, that he'd be in that 101-110 area. I'd guess that most MLB clubs would rate him as a back end of the Top 100 player.

I'm not a Derek Holland fan at all, so this move doesn't bug me. Cubs were looking for a lefty that could pitch to both right-handed and left-handed hitters, but Holland has been massacred by right-handed bats so far this year (.293/.386/.636/1.022).

Last night was the perfect illustration of why I would never throw big money at a one-inning closer. Look at that trainwreck of an 8th inning. How many people actually thought the Cubs were going to hold that lead after Strop plunked Thames? Meanwhile the best, big-money player in the bullpen sits there and collects dust and the team loses the ballgame because it's not the right inning for him to pitch. Thank you very much Maddon!

Definitely agree on Lutz. Seems like all his high ranking comes almost solely from a couple guys at Fangraphs. And that is largely based on an exit velocity number he posted in a workout. And here is the latest Fangraphs write-up I could find on Lutz: "Lutz’s 2018 foray into full-season ball (.272/.348/.477 in May, June and July) was bookended by two awful months (he hit .180 in April, .215 in August) resulting in a .245/.321/.421 line. Already at physical maturity, Lutz’s huge power is the foundation of his profile. He’s capable of hitting long home runs to left and center, and he has the raw strength to drive out mis-hit balls the opposite way. Everything else he does is average. Adept at identifying breaking balls in mid air, Lutz’s moderate swing-and-miss issues stem from his mediocre bat control. This might limit his game power output, but the issues aren’t so bad that we’re worried about Lutz not hitting entirely. He has below-average range and instincts in right field, but his arm is plus. Lutz will likely start next season, age-20, at Hi-A. He projects as a middle-of-the-order power bat who provides little value on defense." So the guy has huge power but had mediocre bat control that could limit his game power output? Doesn't seem like exit velocity would mean that much if the hitter has mediocre bat control and can't get the ball on the sweet part of the bat. They list his hit tool as 30/45, so they project him to have a below average hit tool even when he reaches his peak. And then they say he has a plus arm, but outside of that doesn't seem to have much of an upside as a right-fielder and they even state "provides little value on defense" at the end of the profile. So his game is all power, and so far in full-season ball he's had nearly 900 plate appearances and in those 900 plate appearances his slugging percentage is .410. Manny Pina has a .424 slugging percentage so far this season. I'm guessing the majority of MLB teams would slot him in the #250-#300 area.

I was DMing with a pro scout last night (that does not work for the Brewers) who said that while he has not seen Grisham personally in AAA this year, he's talked to scouts who have and the buzz seems to be that Grisham has worked himself at least back to, and probably past, the value he had when he was drafted. I didn't ask about "top 100" because it's honestly not a very good evaluation measure, but it's fair to say he's in that neighborhood. At least from who I've talked to. Generally about 8-9 draft prospects wind up in the top 100 pretty immediately. Some guys like Brady Singer slip but still seems to get valued higher based on pre-draft hype. And on the flip side, some guy that might get "over-drafted" at #6 overall will not make the top 100 list. If I remember correctly, Grisham was pretty much drafted in the area right where he was expected to go. I'm guessing that would put him in the #150-#175 area overall. That's about 100 spots higher than I would have anticipated. A #150-#175 player should easily rank in the top 4 of the Brewer's system.

Yep. The Brewers have just nine players on active rosters above rookie ball that were signed by the club as international free agents. That's nuts. Stearns has spent gobs of extra money on the international front since taking over, but it'll take time to get those players into full-season ball. Couldn't agree more, the only one on the 40-man roster is Arcia and he's looking more and more like a big disappointment. Other than Miguel Sanchez, is there any other candidate in AAA or AA that even has a shot of someday being put on the 40-man roster? I think guys like Carlos Rodriguez, Larry Ernesto, Eduarqui Fernandez, Eduardo Garcia and Lun Zhao are really key guys in the system. Would love to see any of these guys become good Brewer players, but Milwaukee needs at least a couple of these guys to advance far enough where they could at least become decent trade chips.