JosephC

I've always been hot and cold on Teheran. Definitely never lived up to the prospect hype but when it comes down to the one thing that matters most...run prevention...he's been pretty solid. And the thing that is #2 on the matters most list...durability...he's been pretty solid there too. His K/BB ratio is always pretty mediocre which is the main reason the FIP and xFIP tend to look mediocre. However, he just has an overwhelming history of his ERA (again, the actual run prevention number) outperforming his FIP. His ERA has been better 7 consecutive seasons, hard to say there is anything fluky when it happens seven years in a row. Over those seven seasons...3.64 ERA...4.22 FIP...191 innings pitched. Over the last three year the FIP is a pretty ugly 4.82 which will drive the market way down, but the ERA is a far better 4.09. The only number that prevents me from really liking Teheran in a Brewer's uniform is the ground ball percentage. He's sat at around 39% over the last three seasons. I just plugged a minimum of 120 innings pitched into Fangraphs database, and it returned 104 results. Teheran's GB% ranked 80 out of 104, so he's in the bottom 25%. If it wasn't for that, I'd really be attracted to him as a potential bargain signing. I just think many teams will project him to be around a 5'ish FIP player over the next couple of years which will really drive the price-tag down. And as already discussed, there is a solid 7 year history that strongly suggest that his run prevention will outperform the peripherals.

Bowden posted estimates for his top 35 free agents at The Athletic. Grandal = 3 years, 57 million Moustakas = 2 years, 24 million Pomeranz = 2 years, 10 million

If you read the article it sounds like the bigger issue is where the top and bottom of the zone is being set. While the edges of the plate are fixed, the top and bottom of the zone is still going to be a judgement call. By rule the top and bottom of the strike-zone is not at the same fixed point for every batter. The height of the strike-zone will not be the same for Aaron Judge and Adam Eaton. It's a guarantee that all the people who cry about the umpires now will cry about an electronic zone once it's implemented. Now people complain about the blind umpire behind the plate, if an electronic zone is implemented the complaints will shift to the moron in a production truck somewhere incorrectly setting the top and bottom of the strike-zone.

Arcia's pitiful .283 OBP is still far better than the average .164 OBP posted by the pitchers. As the numbers in post #1 show, 20 less plate appearance for the 9th spot opposed to the 8th spot...but with pinch hitting for pitchers that number is even less when looking at how many extra plate appearances would be forced on pitchers if they were moved to 8th in the batting order. #9 is the perfect place to hide Arcia, and still end up with a hitter that is roughly .120 OBP higher (on average) 2 spots in the order ahead of Yelich. I don't think this would be the case, but there is always a chance that Arcia might hit a little bit better if he was batting ahead of another hitter instead of a pitcher. Again, I don't think so because Arcia just isn't a good hitter. But there is always that theory of hitters getting more or less strikes depending on who is hitting behind them. Maybe Counsell doesn't like it because it might force someone like Thames to hit in front of a pitcher if he was slotted #7 in the batting order. But to improve the OBP .120 two spots ahead of Yelich in the order, I'd gladly have a pitcher hitting behind Thames.

Has there been any articles out there yet with predictions of free agent contracts? MLBTradeRumors used to do it every year, but nothing so far this year. Jon Heyman had an excellent article last year where he gave a prediction and he also had a baseball executive or scout also give a prediction. The past few years there has generally been a few credible sources per year that have thrown out guesses/estimates...and I have yet to find one this year. I like to have some estimates before doing this, instead of just pulling numbers out of my own rear end. My strategy would be to likely put about 55% of my available money towards Grandal and hopefully that gets done. Then I would look at using the rest to bargain shop. If Grandal turns to be out of my price range, then I bargain shop for a catcher to pair with Pina, and then see if there is a bigger priced asset to plug in on the right side of the infield or a starting pitcher...and then bargain shop from there. But I'd like to get some estimates to figure out if (1) Grandal is affordable (2) is there a higher priced SP, 3B, SS that I'd have interest in and (3) where will the bargains be.

Yelich should be hitting in the #2 spot, and the pitcher should be hitting in the #8 spot so there is a higher OBP in the lineup that is 2 spots ahead of Yelich for the majority of his at-bats. I think this has firmly been established by pretty much every mathematical model that has had 50+ years of seasonal data plugged into it. High OBP guy lead off, stack the best hitters directly after him, and then put another hitter in the 9 spot to get more RBI opportunities for the guys in the #2 and #3 spots in the batting order. I'm pretty astounded that the Brewers are so data driven, can sit there and look at Yelich's 44 home run and 97 RBI ratio, and think it's a good idea to continue to bat him two spots behind a .164 OBP (Brewer pitcher's OBP according to Fangraphs).

I think we agree on a lot of things, but I truly believe that Wisconsin's coaching staff was looking at Ohio State more than Illinois the week leading up to the Illinois game. That's not to excuse the players. Coan can't throw fourth quarter interceptions. Taylor can't lose fourth quarter fumbles. The defense has to respect Reggie Corbin's speed, which they clearly did not. Etc, etc, etc. I don't think the Badgers need to change the recruiting philosophy. I don't think the Badgers need to make changes in the coaching staff (I really like ALL the members of the current staff). I can accept the fact that the Badgers have geographical and academic handicaps and really don't have a problem with that. It's a shame that academics would ever be referred to as a handicap, but unfortunately that's the reality in the current college football landscape. I can accept the fact that generally there will always be a couple teams in the Big 10 that will be more talented than Wisconsin. But that shouldn't prevent the Badgers from going 9-3 or better most every year, and in those years where the schedule matches up and they can pull off a big upset, why not have an occasional 12-0 (maybe once every decade). This was a year that could have been an 11-1 IMO, and probably should have been a 10-2 considering the ability of the defense. Now they have to sweep the rest of the regular season to get to that mark which is still clearly achievable, but I'm just really down on them after that debacle from two weeks ago. With 3 bad losses in the last 19 games, they have slipped from the standard they set in 2015-2017 and that's disappointing. Really wish that Iowa game was today.

I have to admit, if I was a free agent I wouldn't see all that much difference between the Brewers and the Reds. Absolutely, the Brewers have been by far the better team recently, and I do have confidence in Stearns and Counsell. But they are both small market teams, and while the Reds weren't good last year they did make moves in an obvious effort to win (Gray, Puig, Wood, Bauer). I'd say chances are 80+% that the Brewers are the better team next year. In that years following that...not so sure about that. Have to admit that if I'm picking between Milwaukee and Cincinnati, I'd go with whatever team offered me the most money.

The Badgers have had 3 trip ups in the last 19 games.

Lots of people think he'll get big numbers but, when considering what has happened in free agency the last couple of years, I tend to think the numbers will be a bit lower. He turns 31 about 1 week from now and pretty much all teams will be factoring in the age decline at this point. I'm thinking 3 years in the 48 to 54 million range. If he stays in the 3 year, 48 million dollar area, I definitely think the Brewers should be in on him. I figure they'll probably have 30 million to spend, and I wouldn't mind seeing them dedicate just over half of that to Grandal.

Not pushing the panic button but the Illinois fluke should not happen and the Badgers have had more fluke losses than they should have the last couple of seasons. 2019 = Illinois 2018 = Brigham Young, Minnesota - We can look at Minnesota's 2019 record and maybe take issue with calling the 2018 loss a fluke. However, it was a home game for Wisconsin and Minnesota came into that game with a 2-6 record in Big 10 play...it was a terrible loss for Wisconsin. 2017 = no bad losses 2016 = no bad losses 2015 = no bad losses 2014 = Northwestern (they were only 5-7 that year) It was a really nice run from 2015-2017 in taking care of business and winning all the games they should win. Even with some seemingly tough games on the schedule, I really liked the home/away breakdown and thought they had a solid chance to sweep the schedule outside of Ohio State which did look like a mismatch on the road. No shame in losing that game, even the lopsided result was pretty much expected. But Illinois is a bad team and if the Badgers want to be considered a solid #6-#15 in the national rankings year in and year out they can never lose those games. Third one in a year-and-a-half is not a good result. And Illinois is terrible. There have been some talking heads in the Madison area spinning it that Illinois is up and coming and this could very well be the springboard game for them. Nonsense. They got beat at home by Eastern Michigan this year. Nebraska is a total mess and they went into Illinois and won. So what if Illinois beat Purdue. Purdue is 2-6 and lost to Nevada (who are only 1-3 in the Mountain West). So much for the Badgers going 11-1 in the regular season. If they lost to Illinois on the road, it puts every road game in question (except if Rutgers was on the schedule which they are not). Again, this might sound like a complete panic job...but I have more of a feeling of disappointment than panic. From 2014-2017 this was looking like a program that would be in the top 15 every year. Even with a nasty Big 10 schedule, a 9-3 record would pretty much be expected (with a top 15 ranking considering the brutal schedule). Schedules like this year...an 11-1 record completely possible which likely comes with a solid top 6 or top 7 ranking...and if Wisconsin is the team that pulls off the fluke win then it's 12-0 and in the playoff. It's really disappointing. And one more comment...Minnesota sits there with an 8-0 record but look at the dog schedule they have played. Nebraska the best team they've gotten so far and Nebraska is not very good. If it wasn't for that Illinois game, there is no reason why we should think the Badgers cannot win that game at Minnesota. Let's just say I'm a Gopher doubter.

Seager was #1 in fWAR among shortstops in both 2016 and 2017. He was injured for most of 2018 and was 13th best in 2019. Lots of 2019 numbers give the indication that he will be better in the coming years. For example, his hard% and medium% of hit balls were pretty much in line with what he did in 2016 and 2017, but his BABIP dropped from the .350 region to .303. His K% was actually better in 2019 than it was in 2016 and 2017. Offensively, he looks like a really good bet the next couple of years. His UZR/150 dropped into slightly negative territory, but his DRS has gone from 0 in 2016 to +10 in 2017 to +9 in 2019....so DRS has him as good defensively as he's ever been. The guy is still only 25 years old so the age drop off is still a ways off. Projection services are putting him at about a 4.5 WAR player next year...that seems like a completely fair number IMO. Looking back at fWAR the last five years, on average a 4.5 fWAR shortstop sits as about the 5th/6th best shortstop in the league. I'm not saying I'm for or against a Seager/Hader swap. But what I am saying is that if the Brewers would wind up with Seager (won't happen), I'd feel really confident that the Brewers landed one of the games ten best shortstops for the next two years and wouldn't at all be surprised if he ended up one of the five best shortstops over the next two years. The guy hit 19 HRs last year playing home games in Dodger Stadium with a 13.2% HR/FB ratio, that home run number could easily move to 25+ if in Miller Park...combine that with a .362 lifetime OBP....combine that with the guy plays SS and DRS indicates he does a better than average job of doing that. Just did a quick internet search on Seager to see if there was any recent news and it sounds like the Yankees are going to pursue him. It would be interesting to see how that would work out because I don't think the Yankees have the minor league firepower to make it happen (unless the Dodgers would be hot for Dominguez, which would make sense since they've always been hot for international talent....but Dominguez is probably the one minor leaguer the Yankees would refuse to trade).

Not to minimize what Meyer has done, but it's Ohio State and has been that way for a long time. After Tressel got things rebuilt after the Cooper era, he lost a total of 11 games over his last 6 years with the Buckeyes. Meyer has lost 9 games over his last 6 years with the Buckeyes. Both got Ohio State one national championship (Meyer was 12-0 his first year at Ohio State but they were ineligible, which cost him a good chance at a 2nd). It's Ohio State. It's almost hard not be good there when looking at the talent level of the region and basically pitch all the rules out the window. And never, never underestimate the power of free tats!

1. Give him a zillion dollars. 2. Throw all academic standards out the window. 3. Pay all players under the table. 4. Free tats (that was previous coach but still a solid Ohio State tradition). 5. Make sure there is plenty of dope to go around. In other words, pay him and allow him to bring his "SEC-style" of recruiting to Madison.

I'd have Hader being worth 10 WAR total over the next four years. 10 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 90 million in total value - 4.6 million estimated salary in 2020 - 6.7 million estimated salary in 2021 - 9 million estimated salary in 2022 - 11.2 million estimated salary in 2023 = 58.5 million in surplus value. His number isn't that much different than Seager. I think a Seager for Hader plus Micah Bello OR Payton Henry would be a fair deal when looking at the numbers.

Would have to think Seager would be valued at approximately 4.5 WAR per season. Controlled for 2 more years so that's 9 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 81 million in total value - 7.1 million estimated salary in 2020 - 11.5 million estimated salary in 2021. I'd have him as being really solid in having 60-65 million in surplus value. It's probably a really good bet that the Brewers four best prospects don't even add up to 50 million in surplus value.

The Brewers definitely need better production from the shortstop position, but I'm not seeing many options out there that look like a really good fit. I thought Gregorius might be had at a discount price considering he was bad at the plate last year. But the projection services are valuing him as a 3+ WAR player in 2020, so it's a decent bet he's going to get pretty good money from somebody. I'm a fan of Iglesias, but have to be careful on how much to pay a guy like that. He broke the .700 OPS barrier last year but the guy just doesn't have a very good bat. .271/.306/.389/.694 from 2017-2019. There is no question that he's an upgrade over Arcia offensively and a big upgrade over Arcia defensively, it's just a matter of if he hits enough to give him a multi-year deal. I'm all for finding another 3-year former plus-plus prospect that has been a disappointment for another organization and making a straight up swap for Arcia.

Agreed. Unless of course they used the 2 months to install an entirely new, less predictable, more dynamic offense. And recruit a whole new group of athletes to go along with it.

Every game they play on the road will be a big question mark. I sure hope that loss to Illinois wasn't because the coaching staff jumped ahead to Ohio State. They wouldn't have beat Ohio State with 2 months of preparation.

I normally will not turn off a Badger game, even if they are getting whipped I'll usually stick with it to see some of the freshman play later in the game. But I still have such a bitter taste in my mouth from last week, I don't think I'll make it through the second quarter unless they keep it close. Hate to say it, but I fully expect to see Wisconsin get run right off the field. Hopefully Ohio State are going in a bit cocky after last week's results, if they end up bringing their A-game then they should have no problem.

This is so ridiculous that it is almost comical. Yes, comical even when considering the serious nature of the subject. So they can fire this guy for making comments that are interpreted to support domestic violence, and as a result offended a few individuals it was directed at. You lose your job for that. OK, fine. Yet the same organization has no problem in trading for, paying 6.5 million per year, and putting in the middle of the playing field to show him off to the entire world during the World Series, a guy who escaped an assault charge against a woman only because she went to Mexico and would not return to Canada for a trial. So here the word and implication is deemed by the Astros to be worse than the actual act of violence. How can the Astros release a statement that actually says "his conduct does not reflect the values of our organization" while continuing to employ Roberto Osuna? There is absolutely zero justification for this. And for those who will state that we really don't know what Osuna did and "trial by media" becomes more and more of a threat to an individual's rights and freedoms...I will be the first to agree with that statement. However, the Astros are part of MLB, and MLB suspended Osuna for 75 games and Osuna (and the MLBPA) did not fight the suspension. So the organization the Astros are a part of have already determined guilt, so again it is complete hypocrisy that the Astros can release a statement saying "We fully support MLB and baseball's stance and values regarding domestic violence" while employing Robert Osuna. That statement from the Astros is the most arrogant and hollow thing I've read in a long time. They are more than happy to employ a woman abuser because he can help them win games and make them more money. But a guy who says the wrong thing...well he's a front office guy so we will throw him to the wolves and then strut around and make like we "do the right thing." Reporters should be all over the Astros for this, and I mean all over the Astros, but in all honesty I think most sports reporters are so darn dumb these days they will praise the fact that Taubman is out and not see anything past that. I certainly hope that I am wrong and the Astros start taking a real beating for continuing to employ Osuna after this ridiculous statement. Go Nationals!!!

Taking into account what has happened in free agency the last two off-season, I'd guess Grandal's offers top out in the 3 year, 48 million area and I think Milwaukee should be a player at that price-tag. I'd go after him really hard. I'm usually pretty conservative with off-season payroll estimates but would expect the Brewers would have about 30 million to spend if Anderson and Thames' options are picked up and Shaw and Nelson are not offered arbitration (that's what I'm guessing will happen). Throwing 16 million at Grandal eats up more than 1/2 the money but his bat is worth it. Alex Avila would be my backup plan. Would definitely prefer Grandal but still would feel pretty comfortable with a Pina/Avila combination behind the plate.

How will the Badgers run the table? Look at all the big plays Illinois had today, especially when considering how many they lost due to dumb penalties (and penalties that did not impact what should have been a big gain). Ohio State should run them right off the field. Badgers got a big break from the schedule makers getting all their early tough games at home. They are not a top 10 team and it's almost a joke to think of them as a playoff team. Illinois. No more needs to be said.

I wouldn't say today is a scary game, but I hope Bucky didn't spend all week practicing for Ohio State and not Illinois. Ohio State is definitely faster than UW, but UW has excellent speed on defense and I would guess the Badgers coaches are more worried about Ohio State's offensive system than they are about the athletic aspect. Wouldn't surprise me if they jumped the gun and didn't put the work in on Illinois that they should have. This is the first conference road game and Illinois only has one big problem, their tackling is beyond horrible. They play decent enough offense and their special teams units are probably better than Wisconsin. Bucky should win this game by 24+ points but IMO it has the potential to be a close game if Wisconsin haven't been focusing on Illinois this week.

IMO the extra roster spot really hurts a player like Perez. With the 13 pitcher/12 bat configuration, those teams mainly had to play with a 2 catcher, 6 infielder, 4 outfielder setup, which left them one outfielder short. Perez actually had a pretty good glove as both an infielder and outfielder, so he was ideal as the 12th guy on the bench because he was both a decent 6th infielder and 5th outfielder. Now that all teams will be forced to carry 13 bats at all times, almost everybody will have the ability to find a better bat, or at least a bat with more upside, to serve as the team's fifth outfielder.