JosephC

Saladino might have a small 2019 MLB sample size. But his overall MLB sample size is not small. Now over 1000 plate appearances. .230/.281/.334/.614. At nearly 30 years old, I very much doubt that he will be a late-bloomer with the bat.

I'm taking Sean Doolittle off the list. The Nationals have been very sell-adverse. Last year they were 49-51 on July 24 and things were looking extremely bleak, and it still took them until the end of August to trade off Gonzalez to Milwaukee. Now that they've worked themselves to 2 games over .500, I don't see them as selling off any pieces.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham? The surplus values I assign are based on various top prospect lists. Generally I won't elevated players above "role-player prospect" status until they establish themselves as "top 10 organizational type prospects"....which in the Brewer's case would probably be more along the lines of a top 8 prospect since they have a pretty weak system. At the time the prospect lists are updated, and if Grisham moves up as expected, then his surplus value will be adjusted up.

That 0-2 pitch was pretty unbelievable. Puig looked so bad on the first two pitches, it's pretty incredible that the third pitch was anywhere within a foot of the strike zone.

I really like Sam Dyson. Has been a real solid reliever over the last five seasons outside of one terrible stretch at the beginning of 2017. Ground-baller who seems like he'd be a good Miller Park fit. Doesn't make so much money that the Brewers can't afford him but enough that will likely keep the asking price down.

Sad news. May he rest in peace.

Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

Sano hasn't been nearly as bad as Shaw. In fact, in some respects he's been quite good. He's slugging .556. Shaw's slugging .290. The strikeouts for Sano are alarmingly high, but he's slugging .628 against LHP. If you could get him straight up for Shaw, you do that in a heartbeat. Sano hit two home runs on the 28th and another on the 29th. When I made the post, Sano's slash line was .195/.278/.483/.761. Sano has an OBP of .287 since the beginning of 2018. Sano entered this season with 3.066 years of service time and to this point has been a 5.9 bWAR and 6.4 fWAR player. Shaw entered this season with 3.088 years of service time and to this point has been a 10.7 bWAR and 9.0 fWAR player. Maybe Shaw has lost it and will not longer be an effective MLB player, but the poor on-base skills and bad defense don't make me real optimistic about Sano either. He's about 3 years younger, that's about the only real positive thing I can say about him.

Good post OldHeidelberg, it made me think about Woodruff's valuation a bit more. One way to look at Woodruff's value is that...I think at his height of prospect status he ranked about #80 on the top 100 lists. I don't remember seeing him get much higher than that. #80 pitcher has just under 20 million in surplus value on my chart. Woodruff's value likely dipped some after his MLB debut in 2017 and bounced back after his strong finish to last year...maybe back to the #80 value he initially came into the league with (at the end of 2018, he was a 4.22 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.84 FIP pitcher). And even when looking at 2019, so far Woodruff has had one great month this season in terms of actual run prevention. 1 start in March = 3.60 ERA. April = 5.47 ERA. May = 1.36 ERA. June = 4.78 ERA (how many Brewer fans would have guessed his June ERA is 4.78? I would have guess at least a full 1.50 run less). Woodruff had one really bad start to begin June, but his June ERA is 3.74 even if we pretend that bad outing didn't even exist. Obviously the peripherals have been way better than the ERA. So back to the surplus value discussion...if Woodruff "maintained" his highest prospect status when entering this season, then he has tacked on 10 million in value so far through 102 innings of work, which means he could tack on another 10 million in value through the rest of the season even though the controlling team will lose 1 season of control over that timeframe. 20 plus million increase in surplus value minus one year of control....that seems like a fast riser to me. Again, I'd need way more than 2 times the assigned 29.5 million of surplus value to be tempted to trade Woodruff. But when you look at the perspective outlined in the previous paragraph, then maybe the 29.5 million dollar number isn't so out of line.

Two quick notes regarding my evaluation of Small's prospect surplus value. I had previously evaluated Comp A picks at top ten organizational prospect level and valued the picks at around 11 million in surplus value. But someone on this board (can't remember who), suggested that was a bit high so I went through and looked at comp A picks from the last couple years and in weak systems those picks could wind up at #7/#8 on a team's rankings, but in strong systems those picks could be as low at #16. Average and median numbers were in the #11-#12 range so I reclassified those picks at being worth more around 7 million in surplus value. So normally, a guy at the end of round one should be slightly higher than 7 million in surplus value. But its really hard to make this evaluation because, not only are we talking about getting a player, we are also talking about the size of the draft pool money as well. I would actually think most teams probably have more value associated with the pick than just the player himself. But then ranking has to play in the estimate as well. Brady Singer is a good example. He may have been the 18th pick in the draft, but it was obvious that he would be valued much higher than that even with an average MiLB start. Fast forward one season, and although he was the 18th pick in the draft, he currently sits at #45 on the MLB Pipeline top 100. That's with a 3.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.5 K/9...nothing wrong with those numbers but nothing eye-popping either. And I'm not anticipating a major drop when the top 100 list is updated, but time will tell on that. Small seemed to sit at #55-#60 on most of the draft ranking lists, and I don't necessarily think the consensus view of the league is that he has "top 30 draft value" just because the Brewers picked him at #28. I think Small fits more solidly in the "role-player prospect" tier of players and have slotted him as such. He hits the minors and tears it up and then up the list he'll go.

Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison. 1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8) 2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6) 3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11) 4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4) 5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2) 6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8) 7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6) 8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5) 9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7) 10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2) 11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6) 12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6) 13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7) 14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5) 15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0) 16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8) 17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3) 18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6) Everyone else = 2.2 I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

FWIW values from the trade value site: Woodruff 29.5 Boyd 34 Davies 31.1 Woodruff's value has to be skyrocketing with every start but I would say these numbers are pretty up to date since they clearly reflect this seasons performance. No way I would trade Woody for Boyd, the years of control makes a huge difference. At first I thought the Woodruff/Boyd numbers were crazy low. But they might be adjusting those numbers down based on the volatility of pitching and the fact that neither of these guys have a long MLB track record of success. I was just thinking back on how great Gallardo looked in stretches when he first came to the majors, and he turned into real solid pitcher but never really achieved ace status. And Gallardo's early work was done as a 21 year old, whereas Woodruff is in his age 26 season and Boyd is in his age 28 season. I still think those numbers are crazy low because as a Brewer GM I would require well over 2 times that value to move Woodruff, and if I was the Tigers GM I would require just under 2 times that value to move Boyd...but maybe the majority of the league just wouldn't see it the way I do. We also have to remember that ALL players are not being updated continuously and ALL values will not be in "real time." It's just like the prospect lists at MLB.com. At the beginning of the year, many Brewer fans likely thought that putting Grisham in the top 30 may have been a bit generous. Now the fact that he's 22 spots behind Lucas Erceg looks completely ridiculous. But I haven't seen anybody get wound up about it, because everyone knows that will all be fixed when the list gets updated in early August (I assume they will wait to do it after the trade deadline). People have to remember this same thing when looking at the trade value site....numbers will probably look a little low for guys who are currently doing real well and numbers will probably look a little high for guys who are currently in a slump.

Just for kicks, I went through and ranked the Brewer prospects according to their values. 1. Keston Hiura = 81.8 2. Tristen Lutz = 17.4 3. Brice Turang = 16.6 4. Corey Ray = 11 5. Mauricio Dubon = 5.8 6. Joe Gray = 4.7 7. Payton Henry = 3.6 8. Lucas Erceg = 3.5 9. Mario Feliciano = 3.5 10. Zack Brown = 3.2 11. Jacob Nottingham = 3.0 12. Aaron Ashby = 2.6 13. Carlos Rodriguez = 2.5 14. Pablo Abreu = 2.3 15. Troy Stokes Jr. = 2.3 16. Trent Grisham = 2.2 17. Korry Howell = 2.1 18. Larry Ernesto = 2.1 19. Eduardo Garcia = 2.1 20. Eduarqui Fernandez = 2.0 21. Tyrone Taylor = 1.8 22. Micah Bello = 1.7 23. Trey Supak = 1.6 24. Antonio Pinero = 1.4 25. Je'Von Ward = 1.4 26. Daniel Castillo = 1.3 27. Yeison Coca = 1.3 28. Clayton Andrews = 1.0 29. Adrian Houser = 1.0 30. Caden Lemons = 1.0

I just love that this simulator has Sam Dyson as a negative value player. Hopefully the Giants and the entire league outside of the Brewers feel the same way. Would love to see Milwaukee land him for one long-shot fringe prospect.

Zero chance that the Tigers would include a top 100 prospect like Paredes in a trade like this. Trade simulator vastly over-valuing Aguilar's current worth IMO. Would the Brewers trade Turang and Jeffress for a guy that currently has a negative 2019 WAR and two role-player prospects? That's pretty close to what this proposal is.

You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways. I would because the value we receive far exceeds what we're giving up. Not that I think the Rays would entertain that deal for even a second. Hader/Grandal for Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore is off-the-rails crazy. When the Marlins were shopping Yelich, I estimated his surplus value at 150 million but suggested that the offers would very likely max out at 120 million dollars because trades involving prospect capital higher than that just don't get made. I had the Brinson/Harrison/Diaz/Yamamoto package valued at 110 million, which is still a very significant and huge return. I'd value the Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore package at 177.7 million in prospect surplus value. This would be a the starting point, and probably put a team 80+% of the way there, if the Angels were looking to deal Mike Trout. To think that a team would give up this type of package for a reliever and a rental catcher....no, no, no, no, no.

Shaw has been approximately twice as valuable as Sano to this point. Shaw has been terrible this year, Sano has been terrible this year and was terrible last year too. IMO, this is a valid idea for both sides, but the Twins would need to include a couple solid prospects to make this deal an even one. And I can't see the Twins dedicating prospect capital on a struggling player who might provide an offensive upgrade but wouldn't provide any upgrade at all if he continues to struggle. It probably does make the most sense as a straight up deal, but the Brewers just give up way too much when looking at the historical WAR figures to think that they would want to do this.

A poster on MLBTradeRumors suggested one of my personal non-favorites...Homer Bailey. After I cleaned the vomit off of my desk I went and looked at his numbers, and lately he's been surprisingly good. Just had a 1 run allowed, 5 1/3 inning performance against the Twins offense. 2.51 ERA in 5 June starts. He gave up 10 earned runs in his first two starts of the year, since then he's thrown 70 innings and posted a 3.98 ERA. 4.12 FIP so far this season with a less attractive 4.53 xFIP. Fairly solid ground ball rate of 44.7%. Has had a little luck with the HR/FB rate (11.7%) but the BABIP number is pretty close to average (.300). The Dodgers had released him so they are on the hook for the contract, if the Brewers acquired him they would only have to pay him at the league minimum rate. I can't imagine the price on him would be very high considering his run from 2016-2018 which was truly awful, I'd guess two non-top 30 prospects. Who knows, maybe the guy just really needed to get out of Cincinnati? Factoring in the home park and luck aspects, right now he sure looks like a 4.50 ERA pitcher that will consistently give the team 5-7 innings per start. I like his profile over the remainder of the season more than Chase Anderson, and Anderson may just stick in the rotation for awhile if no additions are made.

When looking at the Brewers suspected amount of payroll space available and prospects in the system, I would almost immediately think that guys like Greinke, Syndergaard, Scherzer, Boyd and Smith would be near unobtainable (assuming that Hiura is off the board). Somebody like Syndergaard may be able to be gotten at a discount, but have to think that plenty of teams would be interested and it's pretty easy for a majority of teams to outbid the Brewers. I would also say the same thing about Stroman and Bauer. Any of the names above, to be even remotely competitive for any of those guys would require Turang and a bunch more. Bumgarner...I still think somebody has to drastically overpay for him or else SF will just keep him. Aaron Sanchez is simply a bad pitcher at this point and not even an upgrade over Milwaukee's worst options, and while I like Alex Wood, his injury situation has to completely remove him from the board. Wheeler, Roark, Ray and Minor are the guys that make the most sense IMO. But since Ray and Minor have 1.5 years of control, have to think that the Brewers would have to start the package with Turang. If Turang is off the board, then I see the list as being down to just Wheeler and Roark. Wheeler has an ugly ERA (4.69), but the FIP (3.74) and xFIP (3.90) are much better. Roark is the opposite, good ERA (3.36) but marginal xFIP (4.37). Roark has a bad ground ball rate (36.1%) and appears to have been pretty lucky with the HR/FB % (only 8.1%). Roark has a higher salary than Wheeler (10 million versus 5.975), so if the Brewers are picking up all of the salary, then Roark should be slightly (but not significantly) cheaper in terms of prospects.

Worst part is that he states in the description that this "fan interference" made him miss a Travis Shaw home run. That's like missing a chance to see a real, live Yeti or something like that.

This team badly needs a healthy Gio Gonzalez back on the hill. I'd don't know if there would be any statistical evidence to back this...there probably isn't...but it just seemed like this pitching staff was better when he was healthy and part of the rotation.

For the powers that be wanting to make baseball more entertaining and more interesting for the fans, having one hard deadline and having the deadline so early seems odd to me. I really think they should have moved the deadline back two weeks to August 15 (maybe even the end of August) when going to this single, strict deadline. Granted, big moves didn't happen often in August but the chance that something could happen kept the armchair GMs interested. August is going to be a really, really long month now.

Stearns would have been better off busting out the pocketbook (in terms of money and prospects), and paid the premium for Minor on this one. Would like to say that Claudio has just been one of the top victims of the juiced ball this year (HR/FB rate had been highly variable but had sat around 10%, but this season it has ballooned to 23.1%), but it's hard to make that argument with a poor xFIP of 4.86. Hopefully Claudio will pitch much better down the stretch, but as of now it's looking like a rare misstep for Stearns. I'm not a big fan of the K rates and think strikeouts are highly over-valued in today's environment, but here is a good example of a K rate that probably should have steered the GM in a different direction. Interesting choice for Brewer fans in terms of they payroll aspect. If the Brewers $$$'s were limited to having pick between the two, which would have been a better pickup? Mike Moustakas = .280/.359/.583/.942, 22 HR, 48 RBI, 138 OPS+, 3.0 bWAR, 2.7 fWAR Mike Minor = 6.48 innings/start, 2.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 3.70 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 197 ERA+, 5.2 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR

Nelson shouldn't feel the need to do anything good for the team, and he should feel the need to what is best for himself. If he has two or three bad bullpen performances, is it a lock for him to choose being released over a AAA assignment if that is presented to him as his choice? Normally I think a player is better off getting released in hopes of finding an MLB job somewhere else. But Nelson is coming off an injury that normally doesn't carry all that positive of an outlook, and he has been rotten in his return to MLB. If Jesus Aguilar is put on waivers, there are enough bad teams and his contract is cheap enough that I have little doubt that one of the first teams that have priority would claim him and be happy to have him on their 25-man roster as a 3 month audition for the 2020 roster. If Chase Anderson is put on waivers, I think he'd make it through because nobody would want to take his contract. But if subsequently released by the Brewers, I have no doubt that a bad team would immediately sign him and put him on the 25-man roster and be happy to have him (at least initially). If Jimmy Nelson is put on waivers and subsequently released, I'd guess his performance has been so bad AND with the injury factor hanging over his head, that he is not going to get an MLB job, even from a bad team, for the rest of this season. I think chances are much better than 50/50 that he would be back in MiLB ball for someone else if not for the Brewers. And if not with the Brewers, then he is looking at going into next off-season as a non-roster invitee that has to pitch himself onto a 40-man roster and then onto a 25-man roster. I think with the Brewers, even if shipped to AAA, he'd be pretty safe to keep his 40-man roster spot through the rest of this season. He and his agent have to know that he is going to have a real uphill battle to get back to MLB if he leaves the Brewers. The Brewers sunk over 7 million in him the last couple of years, they will have far more motivation than any other organization in giving him repeated chances to try and stick in MLB. A released versus AAA decision should be, at least, a very difficult decision for Nelson and his agent, and personally if I were either of them I would lean towards staying with the Brewer's organization at least to the end of the season because I see the chances of him immediately landing another MLB job to be very poor at this time. He really needs to show something out of the bullpen in his next few appearances. Also agree with adambr2 that the Brewers did a real poor job with handling his service time and option situation.

I expect Hiura to be called up before the next series, and if so then there is just no question that it was all about Super 2 status. But if the unexpected happens, and Hiura is still in AAA on July 1, then it's questionable if it was about Super 2 status or something else (defense), because Super 2 status really doesn't play into the equation at all once we get into very late June/early July.