JosephC

That was a terrible trade. I remember the first time I saw him pitch in spring training, went to the stat sheet and saw he was coming off a season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP and just couldn't figure out what Stearns would see in this guy. No question that Stearns has done a great job here but this one will forever remain a big head-scratcher. I don't know if this was a good example of where the advanced metrics just totally steered him wrong, he may have seen the 12 hits per 9 innings allowed in 2018 as a total outlier, but Claudio's FIP was going in the wrong direction from 2016 to 2017 to 2018. Also, in fairness to Stearns, it absolutely needs to be pointed out that Stearns probably had no idea a 3-hitter rule (unless ending the inning) was on the way, which may have had a big negative impact on how Stearns views Claudio. Not unreasonable at all to think that Stearns saw him as a multi-year asset, but now doesn't see Claudio as being much of an asset going forward now that they changed the rules.

Get the boosters to throw in a big wad of cash and try to import some ringers from the NFL.

I would have started with 4 years, 70 million on Grandal and may have gone higher and tried to out-bid the White Sox. But Moustakas is way too great of an OBP risk to even come close to matching this offer from Cincy. I've always been somewhat skeptical of Moustakas but no question he was a great fit in Milwaukee and, after doing a full review of this off-season, would have liked to see him back. Congratulations to him for getting a 64 million deal.

I'd guess that getting Lauer likely puts Suter in a "primarily reliever/possible swingman" type role.

I'd do that. I think a lot of people just don't perceive value in McNeil because he wasn't a highly regarded prospect and therefore is viewed as a late bloomer and possible flash-in-the-pan. But there were those same concerns with Merrifield and he continues to be a good player for KC. McNeil is up over 800 MLB plate appearances and has a .318/.383/.513/.896 slash line. Looked like a hot bat in 2018 but came back and had an even better OPS in 2019. Looking back at his minor league career, totals there were a .380 OBP and .822 OPS. Everything from 2016 forward looks really good other than a slight hiccup when first reaching AAA in 2017 (only covers 71 at-bats). Five more years of control, and there is no chance of him being a Super Two player with 1.069 days of service time. Last year he started at least 16 games at all these positions: LF, RF, 3B, 2B. Fortunately enough for the Brewers, DRS and UZR/150 indicate his best position is 3B (obviously small sample sizes). His BABIP numbers are on the high side (.337 in 2019). However, his % of soft hit balls is also very low (11.2%, Yelich was at 14.4%). He did break his wrist at the end of last year (HBP). It doesn't sound like it's a big deal but the doctors would have to clear it. Other than that, I really like McNeil and think he would be an excellent get for the Brewers. It would be interesting to see how the Mets value McNeil. I don't trust the tradevalue site at all. I also don't do WAR calculations on players with <1 year of service time and am a bit hesitant to do it with players with <2 years of service time. Putting a surplus value on him of 48 million makes him roughly equivalent to a hitter that would rank at #42 on the top 100 prospects list. IMO that could potentially turn out to be a real bargain as he was a 4.8 bWAR/fWAR player last year and missed a good chunk of the season with the broken wrist. He's being projected as a 3-3.5 WAR player for 2020. I really think he's a good bet to be a 12.5+ WAR player over the next five seasons, and if calculating out surplus value using that figure then his surplus value should be more around the 75 million mark.

That was true in 2016, not sure if it's been true since that time.

Trying to take an unbiased look in the Penn State vs. Wisconsin debate. They played 6 common opponents: Purdue = Penn State wins by 28 at home, Wisconsin wins by 21 at home...slight advantage to Penn State Iowa = Penn State wins by 5 points on the road, Wisconsin wins by 2 points at home...advantage to Penn State Michigan = Penn State wins by 7 at home, Wisconsin wins at 21 at home...advantage to Wisconsin Michigan State = Penn State wins by 21 on the road, Wisconsin wins by 38 at home...advantage to Wisconsin Minnesota = Penn State loses by 5 on the road, Wisconsin wins by 21 on the road...big advantage to Wisconsin Ohio State = Penn State loses by 11 on the road, Wisconsin loses by 31 on the road...big advantage to Penn State 3-3 when looking at advantages with common opponents. However, Penn State is 4-2 in those games and Wisconsin is 5-1. Minnesota is obviously the most significant difference here. Both games at Minnesota and Wisconsin wins by 21 and Penn State loses by 5. Then there is the Illinois loss to factor in for Wisconsin. But since Penn State didn't play Illinois, we'll never know exactly how that matchup would end up? Obviously if Penn State would have gone to Illinois and won by 28, then the advantage swings to their favor. But if Illinois went to Penn State and Illinois only loses by 7....how different does that play against a 2 point victory against Wisconsin in Illinois? For me, I think the win/loss difference versus common opponents and especially the way that difference occurred...the Minnesota game...would sway me to pick Wisconsin over Penn State. However, I anticipate Wisconsin finishes with 3 losses, will be the team that has the most recent loss, will indeed be penalized for playing the extra game and will find themselves in the Citrus Bowl.

Ohio State and Clemson will win their games next weekend. If Georgia wins, the final four will be Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson and LSU. If LSU wins and Utah wins, the final four will be Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and Utah. If LSU wins and Utah loses, the final four will be Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and the winner of this weeks Oklahoma/Baylor game. IMO the only question worth asking at this point is if ABC/ESPN/Disney commands the committee to put Oklahoma in instead of Utah if both Utah and Oklahoma win their games this week.

Why? That might be even more unlikely than Wisconsin beating Ohio State. Virginia is definitely battle-tested though with that brutal out of conference schedule. William & Mary, Old Dominion and Liberty all in the same season...what a joke!

The best performance by Wisconsin all year. Good luck to the Gophers next year when they won't be able to sneak up on anyone. I don't know how they ever beat Penn State? Wisconsin really exposed them as a major pretender today.

I'd put Bundy's surplus value at about 16 million and Arcia's surplus value at about 0.

I love this deal because I think Urias upside makes the trade worth it. And I'm not basing that off of prospect rankings, but rather Urias' consistent production through the minors. Over 2000 MiLB at-bats, and to this point has posted a career .397 OBP/.830 OPS. Grisham did a lot in 2019 to close that MiLB statistical gap with Urias, but Urias was so much more consistent through the minors. It wouldn't be a bit surprising if Grisham turned out to be the better major league player, especially in this environment of home run, home run, home run. But if I were to ever make a mistake on a player, I'd want to make that error with the player with the better and more consistent track record, and in this deal that is Urias. I just hope Urias sticks at shortstop because he has the reputation of being a much better second baseman and both DRS and UZR/150 back that up although there certainly isn't enough data to make that definitive. I do have some concerns when looking at Lauer. Old scouting reports said he has a pretty decent floor and likely pitches in a major league rotation but also has a limited ceiling, maybe could be as good as a #3 starter but is more than likely a back-of-the-rotation starter. I really don't see anything on the MLB stat sheet to make me think anything different. Pretty much a fastball/cutter guy with average velocity that has a curveball as his third pitch. However, so far the four-seam fastball has graded as a positive pitch and the rest have all been negatives. Last year there were 88 pitchers that has at least 140 innings pitched (picked 140 because Lauer finished with 149 2/3), and Lauer ranked 65th in ground ball percentage. On the flip side, he ranked 20th in HR/FB% with a well above average percent (11.7%). xFIP obviously compenstates for that, but it puts him at a 4.77 pitcher. If that HR/FB% swings from a favorable rate in PETCO to a negative rate in Miller Park, it's not at all crazy to see Lauer as being a 5 ERA pitcher.

Wisconsin gets run right off the field if they play Ohio State again.

Merrifield is probably a pretty solid bet to be at least a 10 WAR player over the next four years. That's 90 million in value. He makes 21 million over those four years and should get a few million more in incentives. I don't see his surplus value being any less than 65 million. Morejon's stock has also fallen significantly. He was a 50'ish prospect on the top 100 lists around this time last year, but there is no way he carries that type of value today.

We'll see how this one works out. d'Arnaud is a good enough player to easily be worth this type of contract if he stays healthy. However, considering his extensive injury history, this could easily turn out to be a disappointing move for the Braves. I think there are better candidates out there to pair with Pina.

This defense is a huge disappointment with all the resources that have been thrown at it. Three notable free agent contracts this off-season. Two first round picks in this last draft. A first and second round pick in the previous draft. Take a look at the what we've seen in yards per play as compared to 2017. For all the justified belly-aching over the previous coordinator, the previous head coach, the previous GM, etc, the results this year haven't been any better unless you look at turnovers, a category that can come and go depending on the competition. 2017: Average yards allowed per rushing play: 3.9 (8th in NFL) Average yards allowed per passing play: 7.9 (30th in NFL) Average yards allowed per play: 5.5 (25th in NFL) 2019: Average yards allowed per rushing play: 4.8 (29th in NFL) Average yards allowed per passing play: 8.2 (26th in NFL) Average yards allowed per play: 6.1 (29th in NFL) As frustrating as this offense has become to watch, we all knew this was coming when the team dumps 8 straight first round picks (doesn't even count Kevin King who was the first pick in round two after a trade down). Ignore that side of the ball for as long as they have and they are pretty much stuck with Jones and Adams as the only two RB/WR/TE who pose any consistent threat at all. They are actually been pretty lucky that Bulaga has held up as long as he has. But yeah I agree with Snapper. This team hasn't been good the last couple of years and they will finish with a better record this year. I'd guess they are one and done in the playoffs but that is a step forward. But what I am frustrated about is that with all the changes and investments, and the defense is still bad. Really disappointing to watch this group continue to pretty much suck while seeing the talent drain continuing to occur with the offense. Thank goodness Jenkins is looking like a keeper.

Schilling and Jeter for sure. Would have to think about Vizquel and Rolen. I think the "modern era" or whatever is largely a sham. But a special mention to Lou Whitaker in that department who should have been inducted by the writers years ago.

Starting pitching is a big question mark and frankly I don't see much out there available in free agency or a possible trade that really excites me. The offense was pretty much average in terms of runs scored last year, and now it's a near guarantee that offense at catcher will take a step back. All that considered, if I'm Stearns I'd put out word that Yelich is available for the next week or so at the right price but the offer is only available for a week. If a deal isn't made, I'd continue with my original off-season plan and look to add players, but everything took a huge step back with the loss of Grandal. Note that the following would be examples of what I'd need to trade Yelich: Rays get Christian Yelich Brewers get SS-Wander Franco (#1 on MLB's Top 100), LHP-Matthew Liberatore (#41 on MLB's top 100), LHP-Shane McClanahan (top 10 organizational prospect), fringe prospect White Sox get Christian Yelich Brewers get OF-Luis Robert (#3 on MLB's Top 100), 2B-Nick "Keston, say hello to 1B" Madrigal (#40 on MLB's top 100), RHP-Jonathan Stiever (top 10 organizational prospect), fringe prospect I'm expecting no one meets the asking price and I'm still a buyer with Yelich as a part of the team.

I'm really bummed about this because I was hoping that a Grandal re-signing would be the big centerpiece move of the off-season. I just think that finding good value will be tough in the market (both free agent and trade), and I felt better about Yasmani than I do with the pitching and shortstops that are out there. The positives though are that I don't mind seeing Pina catch 100 games a year because I really do like his defense. I also think either Alex Avila or Jason Castro would pair really well with Manny. Both will likely be reasonably priced and am hoping that Stearns will bring in one of those two players.

I'm still optimistic on Bickford, but I agree with you. He was red hot but it only covered 26 innings and we are talking about a 24 year old in A ball. I'll wait to see some scouting reports before I get too excited. I think Stearns made the right decision as Bickford is doesn't appear to be big league ready and I'd guess pretty much every organization out there would feel the same way. Sure he could get picked as a Yang/Diaz/Torrens/Cordoba developmental prospect....but I'm guessing if you look league-wide it would be pretty easy to find a whole bunch of prospects that would be more attractive. Brown was terrible in AAA like you said, but if I was another team and had to pick between Brown and Bickford...I would take Brown and it's an easy decision. Yes, terrible last year, but he entered pro ball as a 5th round pick/fringe prospect. He worked his way up to some top 100 mentions, I don't know if the consensus opinion every got that high but it's safe to say that he probably worked himself from fringe to solid top 150 prospect and that was done through nearly 240 innings spread over 2 seasons. So while he was bad last year, there is still a solid track record of 240 innings versus the last 26 for Bickford. I don't think Brown will be picked either, so I think Stearns made the right decision on him too, but if I was in Stearns' chair I would have given it some serious consideration.

I just searched the forum for Mathias and am surprised his name only came up in MadThinker88's post. I could swear that...way back...his name was brought up pretty frequently in the transaction proposal forum. This would have been before the suggested Santana/Salazar swap. May go as far back as Lucroy.

I'd guess the list will be real short. Corey Ray Zack Brown and maybe J.P. Feyereisen

I believe that his salary, plus bonus (aveaged out over the life of the contract), plus incentives count towards the end of the year lux. tax. So all $14.15M would count against the tax. I think what you said is on the money, but just for clarification... All the guaranteed money in a deal is averaged over the guaranteed number of years in a contract, and that is the annual luxury tax amount over the guaranteed years of the deal. For example with Ryan Braun. Last extension was for 5 years with a 6th year that can be bought out (5 guaranteed years) Base salaries in the guaranteed years are 19, 19, 19, 18 and 16 million dollars (91 million total) Buyout for the last year is guaranteed (4 million total) Received a 10 million signing bonus that was paid in equal installments from 2012-2015, new contract didn't even kick in until 2016 (10 million total) Total guaranteed money = 105 million Guaranteed years = 5 Braun's luxury tax charge from 2016-2020 = 21 million each season And the team's total luxury tax is calculated at the end of the year, when all the incentives reached would be known. So if Braun had earned an additional 2 million in incentives in 2016, an additional 3 million in incentives in 2017, an additional 1 million in incentives in 2018 and then no incentives the last two seasons of the deal, then his yearly luxury tax figures over those five seasons would be 23 million, 24 million, 22 million, 21 million and 21 million. That's my understanding of the system. Anyone with greater knowledge of this system...feel free to correct me. The reason MLB takes the average of the guaranteed money is to prevent teams from structuring contracts with low numbers in particular years to get them below the threshold every so often to reset the tax percentage. For example, say the Dodgers sign Garrett Cole to an 8 year, 280 million dollar deal (35 million average). If MLB didn't take the average, the Dodgers could structure the yearly salaries as 45 million, 45 million, 5 million, 45 million, 45 million, 5 million, 45 million, 45 million...combined with structuring a couple other player contracts the same way, could get themselves under the threshold and reset the tax every third season. I don't see any funny luxury tax shenanigans with Maeda's contract.

The only things I don't like are the grey uniforms (but that's not specific to this uniform, I just dislike grey uniforms in general) and the Nike swoosh so prominently displayed on the front of the jersey. As far as I'm concerned, they could have put the swoosh right in the butt-crack of the pants where it would have been perfect. At first I really disliked the state logo, but after looking at it more....it does seem to have a good old-school feel to it and it's already grown on me. All in all I really like this lineup of stuff.

According to Roster Resource, Faria, D. Guerra, T. Williams and Black are all out of options. Have to think Black will be on the opening day roster unless he bombs in spring training.