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JosephC

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Everything posted by JosephC

  1. JosephC
    I still feel pretty good about Gio tonight although the numbers certainly indicate otherwise.
  2. JosephC
    'stache, you did such an excellent summary of this, that you probably have killed any debate because, as you say, the data speaks for itself. All I would say is that the Brewers play in a plus-plus home run friendly park, but still a park that generally plays "above average" in terms of offense...so I would anticipate the correct approach for the front office would be to be more home run geared then the average team. But yes, they are skewed to an extreme and it takes what probably should be a plus offense and makes them into an average offense. And that's exactly what they are, 8th in the NL in runs per game, overall a completely average offense when it comes to run production.
  3. JosephC
    I'd argue that the majority of bad players are part of the pitching staff. At the trade deadline, Stearns went out and acquired four pitchers that, at that time, has the following combined statistics for 2019: ERA = 5.33 WHIP = 1.56 FIP = 5.07 If that's what you are adding to improve the pitching staff, then the pitching staff is terrible.
  4. JosephC
    Mertz was awful the first two weeks of camp. And although he has looked better, both Coan and Wolf are clearly better players as of August '19. The UW football program has a long tradition of ignoring star rankings when a player gets to Madison. Best guy generally plays, doesn't matter if he was a 4-star guy or a walk on. Based on what I've heard, chance are probably 80+% that Mertz is redshirted this season. UW might exploit the new redshirt rules and put him in there in a couple games in blowout situations, but anything beyond that seems pretty questionable at this time. We'll see about Coan. Like everybody I have my doubts. But I also think he could be a lot better if Chryst tailor's the offense to some of Coan's strengths (like his mobility). Getting stuck in Hornibrook's offense was definitely not a good situation for Coan. I just hope the Badgers can go back to running a simple screen pass now that Hornibrook is gone.
  5. JosephC
    Really starting to think the Brewers messed it up with Peralta and elevated him too quickly to the majors. 78 1/3 innings at High A 68 1/3 innings at AA 61 innings at AAA It sure was fun to watch that 13 strikeout debut. But he was still only 21 years old and didn't have much other than a fastball. The guy is talented, but have to wonder if the best thing for him might be to have him in AA and AAA for all of 2020 to continue to work with, and develop some confidence, in those secondary pitches. Hader's one-trick is good enough where he can get by with it if he's locating his pitches properly. I don't think that same thing applies to Peralta. All that said, have to give Turner credit for the homer that he hit off Peralta last night. I thought Freddy made a pretty good pitch and Turner did an excellent job of going down there and getting it. Coaching staff cannot allow Freddy to lose his confidence in the curveball when things like that happen.
  6. JosephC
    I don't recall many Brewer fans wanting to release Gallardo after he got his DUI. I don't recall many Brewer fans having a big problem with Jeffress in 2018, even after the pee-pants incident he had while in Texas. And how many drug tests did Jeffress fail while in the minors? Think that was the absolute first and only time that Jeffress was behind the wheel while intoxicated? If Kang comes up and does well, there won't be one Brewer fan complaining about his DUI's then. I've come to accept the completely hypocrisy that sports fans exhibit when it comes to players on the teams they root for. All cases should be looked at individually. There have been enough recent, positive things said about Kang out of Pittsburgh (even after him getting DFA'ed) that I have no problem with the Brewer's adding him to the organization.
  7. JosephC
    Much more excited about this signing than most. If Kang's leg is OK, this could turn out to be a great signing because the guy can hit. One just has to wonder where he is at physically, because he hasn't hit since that injury. But I don't think this is like Lawrie, who had broken down physically but had seasons of being a pretty mediocre player prior to the breakdown. Kang was a really good player who hasn't even gotten 200 MLB plate appearances since that injury occurred, I think there is a chance that he could still be a good major league player. I guess I'm seeing this more as an acquisition for 2020 and beyond, rather than being a "down the stretch" type deal. Pretty decent insurance policy if Moustakas doesn't return. As far as the off-field stuff, there were multiple reports out of Pittsburgh that said Kang had really matured and was a model citizen since he's gotten back. And that stuff was said even after they DFA'ed him, see the following for one example: https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2019/08/02/pittsburgh-pirates-jung-ho-kang-dfa-pable-reyes-erik-gonzalez/stories/201908020101
  8. JosephC
    Hader's HR/9 is now up to an eye-popping 2.10. I don't see the home run number as a bit flukish either. Hader's GB% is 22.8%, that is the lowest in MLB for pitchers with 40+ innings. He is the most extreme K and FB pitcher in the game. The 24.1% HR/FB looks like a "bad luck" figure on paper, but I don't know how anyone could see it as bad luck when watching the games. He's basically 90% fastball, and the opposition has figured that out and it's obvious that hitters are sitting on fastballs low in the zone that they can handle and then just launching them. In his last 14 appearances, Hader has pitched 15 innings, given up 10 earned runs (ERA = 6.00) and allowed 7 home runs. I am encouraged that the slider rate seems to be moving up. IMO, moving forward, % of sliders thrown needs to end up in the 20-25% range. That 90% fastball worked for a pretty good stretch but it's obvious that MLB hitters have figured out what he's trying to do and have made the adjustment.
  9. JosephC
    Please find somebody with an ERA and FIP under 5 in their last 300 innings the next time you talk about trading away Davies or Anderson or Burnes (much less a combination of them plus prospects to boot). I was really high on Dylan Bundy two years ago but have come around to the idea that the guy just isn't very good. Late bloomer at 27? Definitely could happen. But I'm not trading away anything of significant value in order to find out.
  10. JosephC
    Lyles has a 2.43 ERA in 33 1/3 innings as a Brewer pitcher, but a 5.33 ERA in his other 834 2/3 innings. Really, giving a 3 year deal to a guy with a lifetime 5.22 ERA? Giving out multi-year contracts based on 3.8% of his lifetime performance doesn't seem like a wise investment to me.
  11. JosephC
    When was the "In or Out" thread? 4 weeks ago? I haven't seen anything over the last few weeks to change my mind. None of the NL Central teams have really impressed me. I'll stick with the Brewers winning the NL Central...no wild card teams from the division. Neck in neck with the Cubs down the stretch. Cardinals fade earlier and are not a real threat over the last 10 days of the season.
  12. JosephC
    Must be pretty humiliating to have Blake Swihart take your roster spot. Just that alone makes me think Holland isn't even worth a look. Arizona just couldn't get enough of that .141/.191/.281/.472 Swihart flashed earlier this season.
  13. JosephC
    I might be in the minority, but I still like the Brewers to win the division. Just not sold on the Cubs or the Cardinals.
  14. JosephC
    Pittsburgh will be 4-21 since the All-Star break after this game finishes. In a way it's too bad that there is all the money involved and the gate receipts and all that stuff....because if there wasn't then we could all just tell the Pirates to go home now and try again in 2020.
  15. JosephC
    Wow, too bad the Brewers didn't have the opportunity to get Gausman. Sure the ERA looks terrible, but he's pitched to a 4.20 FIP and that's good enough for me to think he would have been one of the Brewers best five starting options pretty easily with all the injury problems. Since the beginning of 2016 he's been a 4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 100 ERA+ pitcher...it would be hard to argue that he's any worse than average and average is probably an upgrade for the Brewers staff. He still has one more year of arbitration after this year and probably will earn something like 11.25 million. I'm kind of surprised the White Sox passed on him. He obviously doesn't do that much for them this year, but their young guys are coming up and he could be a stabilizing factor for them next year if those young guys get ahead of schedule and over-achieve. They figure to have a couple rotation spots open and the payroll situation seems favorable for a Gausman type add. Maybe they have their eye on bigger fishes...didn't work out with Machado this off-season but maybe next off-season will be a different story.
  16. JosephC
    Nice bit of GM speak by Stearns. "Black’s got as good a stuff as any reliever in the game." Hey David, since the Brewer's bullpen is terrible, why do we have a TWENTY-NINE YEAR OLD reliever with "as good a stuff as any reliever" in AAA and Aaron Wilkerson is on the 25-man roster? I can only think of two explanations for this. Either the Brewers are just plain stupid, or David Stearns really doesn't think that Black is that good. At least not as good as Aaron Wilkerson.
  17. JosephC
    Timing couldn't be worse for Milwaukee as Pittsburgh is on a miserable 4-18 run, which means now is right around the time they will start winning some games. Pittsburgh are not a good team, but they are nowhere near as bad as 4-18. Since the All-Star break: Starling Marte = .311/.351/.656/1.006 Bryan Reynolds = .304/.385/.430/.815 And then there is everybody else: Kevin Newman = .265/.315/.277/.592 Adam Frazier = .208/.288/.292/.579 Josh Bell = .186/.305/.243/.548 Colin Moran = .219/.282/.313/.594 Melky Cabrera = .235/.250/.333/.583 Elias Diaz = .188/.220/.229/.449 Six regulars with an OPS <.600 over a 22 game stretch.
  18. JosephC
    Counsell probably looked at the stat sheet for the last two years and decided he doesn't want to pitch Pomeranz in any situation that could remotely be described as critical because Pomeranz has been complete crap over that timeframe. How bad does a pitcher need to be to actually post a negative WAR by Fangraph's metrics? Remember Matt Garza in 2015? 6-14 record, 6.3 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9 (prior to juiced ball), 5.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP...and he was a +0.4 fWAR with those atrocious numbers! Pomeranz was a negative fWAR AND a negative bWAR player in BOTH 2018 and 2019. Since the beginning of 2018, Pomeranz has a 5.84 ERA, a 5.29 FIP and a 1.68 WHIP...good bad for a -0.5 fWAR and a -1.0 bWAR. Do we really even know if the Brewers traded for Pomeranz to be a key bullpen piece? Or did Stearns just trade for him to be a swing-man insurance policy if Gio starts having problems and needs to go back to the DL for awhile? Or maybe the Brewers saw something in his delivery that they think they can fix and get him back on track? There is no question that there was a time where Pomeranz was a real good pitcher (much better at his peak than Wade Miley ever was IMO). But sometimes those adjustments just don't happen overnight, and maybe the master Hook needs to work with Pomeranz on the side for a couple weeks until they get a mechanical adjustment worked out? I don't blame Counsell, no way would I put Pomeranz in a close game with his last 1 2/3 season track record. That recent track record just sucks.
  19. JosephC
    1. SS-Brice Turang 2. OF-Corey Ray 3. OF-Trent Grisham 4. LHP-Ethan Small 5. RHP-Trey Supak 6. OF-Tristen Lutz 7. RHP-Zack Brown 8. C-Mario Feliciano 9. LHP-Aaron Ashby 10. LHP-Antoine Kelly 11. OF-Micah Bello 12. C-Payton Henry 13. RHP-Drew Rasmussen 14. RHP-Devin Williams 15. OF-Troy Stokes Jr. 16. OF-Joe Gray 17. SS-Eduardo Garcia 18. OF-Carlos Rodriguez 19. RHP-Braden Webb 20. 3B-Lucas Erceg 21. OF-Eduarqui Fernandez 22. RHP-Adam Hill 23. OF-Luis Medina 24. C-Jacob Nottingham 25. OF-Tyrone Taylor 26. 2B-Felix Velario 27. SS-Korry Howell 28. C-David Fry 29. OF-Larry Ernesto 30. OF-Joantgel Segovia
  20. JosephC
    Last year's team finished 29 games over .500 and this year's team is on pace to finish 4 games over .500. This is probably why. Lots of poor performances out of the starting staff has relegated Milwaukee to many B-options. They weren't deemed good enough to make the playoff roster last year, let's see if they can push the Brewers into the playoff this year.
  21. JosephC
    I am a Wisconsin citizen and taxpayer and I realize I'm punching myself in the nuts when saying this, but hopefully Cephus can sue the university and get some proper compensation. Not at all a fan of "misconduct codes" that basically pitch one's rights out the window and throw an innocent individual under the bus for no other reason than to make an organization think that they are standing on some high moral ground. "You have rights....unless you make me look bad...then you have no rights." And for clarification, this is not an opinion that athletes should be allowed to participate in athletics while in a serious legal situation. That's a case by case basis, and personally I would agree with Cephus not being allowed to play football during this process. But expelling him from the university...shame on UW for that.
  22. JosephC
    I had one miserable day at work today and didn't even realize that the Brewers played a day game (yes, I am a whiner!). Looking at the box score.... So now I will go with the obvious. The Brewers have trouble enough with their pitching staff. If Davies and Jeffress both go in the tank, and it hasn't been pretty lately, I don't see anyway they can get a playoff spot. Yelich and Hiura's bats won't even be great enough to overcome this staff with two really key cogs not pitching well.
  23. JosephC
    All things being equal, I would say this one: From 1988-95, the strike zone went from the midpoint between the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, to the top of the knees. However, with the obvious screwing around that MLB is doing to the baseball, I might be tempted to say something like a juiced ball should equal a bigger strike zone and a softer ball should equal a smaller strikezone. And to get off on a tangent about the electronic strike zone...people have to just come to accept that the people who complain about ball/strike counts now will complain about ball/strike counts if an "electronic" zone is implemented. The only difference is now people will complain about the home plate umpire, and in the future they will complain about the tech geek who set the bottom of the zone too high for hitter X and did not set the top of the strike zone low enough for hitter Y. People just love to think they are victimized and whine about it, even though most don't realize it. At least I can concede when I am a whiner. I'll start with the stupid decision to have 1 hard trade deadline and then put it too early in the season. No hot stove now, IMO that literally takes half the fun out of baseball. It's going to be a long month of August.
  24. JosephC
    Anybody else getting slightly (just slightly) concerned about Hader? More and more he seems to be becoming a high fastball one-trick pony. Granted, that one-trick is really good, but I think more and more that the good hitters are going to catch up with that. Hitters seem to be having little trouble with fastballs that he gets down in the zone. He's now up to giving up 1.9 HR/9 which is a concerning number for a late inning reliever. HR/FB percentage is above 20%, and I don't think that's a flukey number with as many high fastballs that he throws, and his GB% is so low that it almost looks like a misprint. Last year he was throwing sliders over 20% of the time, but so far this year he's been at 88+% fastballs.
  25. JosephC
    I opened this thread expecting to read news like Yelich slipped on a ice cube somebody had dropped and blew out his knee. Don't think there is all that much to be concerned about at this point unless something happened to Yelich. If the Brewers were in the AL, they'd be in big trouble. But they ended up in the division with the weakest top (but maybe the strongest bottom), and that should keep things wide open until the end. As frustrating as the Brewers have been, I really don't see anything out of the Cubs or Cardinals to make me believe that they are any better. Brewers could sneak into the playoffs and maybe get lucky if they get hot at the right time.
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