Austin Tatious

Santana is an interesting guy. He strikes out a lot but he's not just purely undisciplined. He actually works some counts and has a decent OBP. I'm not sure he is just a free swinger. He may strike out but his average and walk rate may be better than Davis'. One negative with him is I saw him not fully hustle at times. I hope they teach that out of him. I don't want to see that as a habit. His tools defensively are solid. He has a chance to prove himself. He's an athlete. If anyone is remotely the next Bautista or Cruz its going to be Santana not Davis IMO. He needs to play all out and not dog it. If Santana is not up to it, there are lots of outfielders nipping at his heels coming up. Orimoloye, Harrison, Coulter, Clark, Reed. The next guy will wipe him out if he doesn't turn into a .280 30 HR guy. In the meantime, in 2016, the Brewers have the number 5 pick and four of the top 100. In 2017 they should have a similar draft. There is a lot more of high end athleticism that is going to be infused into the roster.

I like the trade for a variety of reasons. Khris Davis has a singular talent, but it is a premium talent, namely power. He has shortcomings to be sure, but that power is a draw. The Brewers should have been able to command a nice return for him, and they did. Nottingham is a nice pickup. Some of the services rank him in the top 100. I believe I saw where he was as high as 61. We can all agree he's only had one nice year at a low level, plus his catching future is sketchy at best. But, realistically, catcher is a premium position, and the value of a solid catcher is much higher than that of an outfielder because a catcher is very hard to find. I'd argue the Brewers did well here. But we can also agree Nottingham is no sure bet. I have a theory that it takes something like three "good" prospects to hit on one "good" major leaguer. If you look at our old prospect lists, we've seen so many guys fall by the side of the road. LaPorta, Will Inman, Zach Braddock, Thorny, Gamel, Krynzel, Mike Jones, you could go on forever. The 2009 draft had a whopping 6 of the top 105 draft picks and zero of them hit. If you look at some of our acquisitions, Villar, Liriano, Middlebrooks, and Cecchini, were all top prospects who are now on second chances. Nottingham may not hit. But, Stearns is playing the numbers game. Just keep cranking the acquisitions. If we get so many nice prospects, enough of them are bound to become bona fides.

Here's a good (old) article on Nottingham when he was an Astros prospect last summer. It has some good quotes from him about his mindset on being a catcher and picking baseball over football. Spoiler alert: he wants to be more than an offensive player and is determined to be an all around catcher. Also, it quotes Jeff Luhnow. http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/06/11/6th-round-pick-nottingham-could-be-answer-to-take-over-for-castro-in-2017/

Interesting third piece from Texas might be Josh Morgan. Keith Law reporting saying he is moving to catcher from infield. See the link

I would like to pursue McMahon. When I look at other team's position prospects, some of the guys I'd really like to try get are Minnesota's Max Kepler, Toronto's Max Pentecost, McMahon, and AJ Reed from Houston. I like that these guys look like they can hit for average. These guys are 1b, 3b, and C. I think those are big needs in our system. Lara and Gatewood are too far away and speculative at this point at third. Not much at first, although Perry MAY surprise. Not much at catcher. To try to swing something, ammo besides Lucroy would be Peralta, Khris Davis, and Will Smith. Maybe surplus minor league outfielder. Space these trade chips out and try to get good pieces back.

Really like the deal. Love the concept of getting high ceiling younger talent. We see this trend of Stearns liking the talent before it explodes. He isn't getting middling, older talent from his trading of assets. We don't need the 25 year old in triple A in a trade when you can get that on a DFA. In trades, he's getting teenagers or just on the other side of 20. Betancourt, the three teens from the Mariners. Diaz. The young pitcher from the Pirates we got for Rogers. Add this group to the last two drafts where we already have drafted high ceiling guys and the Gomez trade and there is a lot of potential top drawer talent that's so exciting in the overall plan. Can't wait to see how the Lucroy deal works out. I think the media, with some of the proposed deals we have read about, are not paying attention to the profile of what we are looking for. We don't want a 25 year old hitting .232. Those deals are looking only from the contending teams' point of view and can't figure out what Milwaukee wants. Look at Stearns' other moves. Then you look at the other component of the moves, which is how we are filling out the roster. Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Villar, Walsh, Broxton, Flores, Liriano, Zach Jones. Some of these guys were touted at one point. We are taking fliers on them. Cheap fliers. Who knows, you never know a couple of them may bloom. Based on odds, maybe a couple actually will. I like the policy of taking cheap fliers on prospects who have stagnated to try to get the major league team filled, while trading assets for high ceiling prospects. But you do not trade assets for fliers. Anybody can find a .232 hitter that can defend in the outfield. You don't get that in a Lucroy deal. In addition to the trades for high ceiling guys, where we look for analytic metrics too (e.g, k/bb ratio), we will have some high draft picks for a couple of years. Try to get a critical mass of high ceiling prospects before hopefully some percentage of them really come on and become top prospects. Keep stocking the lower levels with high ceiling talent and some will be coming up together as impact guys. As we get better, keep stocking the lower levels so there is a continual supply. We could ultimately have the deepest system we can remember. In our market, we can't let it dip like we did after 2011. Keep it roaring. Only trade prospects if there are enough left over. That's how we can fine tune our next run. Inject the big league club with precocious talent here and there. Last time around, our farm system ran out of gas after we traded any semblance of depth from the system.

Why wouldn't any team take Braun if the Crew threw off cash and they didn't have to give up prospects? That's a give away. Pass. Braun took PEDs to help him with a hammy injury. It's a misnomer to say that he couldn't hit without them. That's laughable. He's got the full tool kit on hitting. He's the epitome of a professional hitter. Keep him under these circumstances. Legit prospects or keep him. If I'm trading him, it's approaching a Tulowitzki deal or I'd keep him. He's a better value for us then. We are not under a salary crunch. He can mentor younger hitters as a veteran presence. It's nice to have a player lead beyond just hitting coaches and the manager.

By the way, I love the leaks to the biased national press that the Brewers demands are sky high, as if that should intimidate the Brewers. Hold firm. We've got something that's valuable. Work something creatively by adding players from our end. But we need impact value back. This is our chance.

Those trade proposals are worse than bad, they are offensive. Phil Rogers is a Cubs homer and seems to be going through mental gymnastics to try to maneuver the Cubs into getting an impact player without giving up a substantial prospect. The Brewers are not here to be a AAAA feeder team. When the Cubs had a pitcher like Smardizja, the Cubs packaged him and got Addison Russell. The Cubs traded for Rizzo. Arrieta came on more than expected but he was another one. The Braves packaged Shelby Miller for Dansby Swanson. I've got news for you, neither Miller or Smarizja are aces. Package Lucroy if need be. But Lucroy is a prized commodity. Research every catcher in the league and then research the top ten prospects in the minors. It's a joke. Lucroy is a prize. There's a massive shortage of quality catchers. Look at it this way, the second Lucroy is traded, it will be brutal for the Brewers to get another quality catcher. The only motivation for the Brewers is they have time in a rebuild through high draft picks and another team needs to make it worth our while in a trade. Without an overpay in a trade, the Brewers don't need to trade such a valuable commodity. These writers are just trying to fix the contending lineups without rigorous analysis of what motivates the Brewers fairly and what past precedent requires. It's disappointing, really. If Phil Rogers were a Milwaukee writer instead of a Chicago writer, he'd be talking about larger hauls, book it. Lucroy doesn't have the same national name he'd have on the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, etc. Lucroy is under control with a low salary that can be extended reasonably. He's an extrovert and a team leader. He can command pitchers and frame. He's a doubles machine. He hit well the second half of last year. The concussion thing is laughable - he's not Corey Koskie. The national writers love to get inside scoop from the big market executives and exaggerate the value of big market talent and trade values. It would be absolutely idiotic for the Brewers to take back the middling talent suggested in these pieces. If needed, you can package Lucroy with another piece or two to make it more palatable to the other team. But Lucroy is a valuable asset and the Brewers need young, high ceiling assets back, not middling, older or major league garbage back. If that were the case, then just keep him. If you look at what Gomez fetched, Lucroy is more valuable, easily. That bar needs surpassed. There is lots of precedent for really good packages of prospects coming back for top players. If another team doesn't like it, they can pound sand, or risk losing him to their competitor. You can play the Rangers off the A's off the Astros, for example. The Cubs would have to overpay not underpay as suggested. The Cubs would actually have to give up something of value to get something of value if they want him.

As we head into 2016, I'm literally more excited about studying the minor leaguers' growth more than anything. Every year is important for an organization to be sure but in many ways this year will tell us a ton. *Jake Gatewood. He struggled at A then came on when he returned to rookie ball. He needs to polish his offensive game, be patient, go the other way, tighten the swing. Can he really turn it on in the Midwest League the second time around? He loves baseball and seems like a great kid. He seems to really relish leadership. This could be a huge year for him to really establish himself. Dealing with pitchers that can control off speed repertoire is an adjustment. 3b seems like a natural fit for him and the organization. This could be a huge year for him to build momentum. Ideally he rakes there and gets promoted to Brevard at some point. That's a dream scenario. *Clint Coulter. Had a nice breakthrough in 2014 but, in the pitcher biased Florida league, his stats on paper were not phenomenal in '15. He's a big kid and it will be really interesting to see where he settles in this year with his bat as he heads to Biloxi presumably. This is a big year for him too. *Josh Hader. He's still young and has a lot of momentum with the scouting media and intelligentsia. Killed it in Arizona and is really being talked up. I'd love to see him build on it and keep rolling. *Monte Harrison. Basically has outrageous tools at the outfielder position. Many of the issues discussed above with Gatewood apply here although Monte is also recovering from the vicious broken ankle. *Cody Ponce. Reminds me of one of the Mets young starters as far as potential. This year will tell us a lot. If he rolls and advances we may really have something here. *Trent Clark and Demi Orimoloye. It will be interesting to see how they fare in '15 compared with how Harrison and Gatwwood fared in '14. That comparison will be interesting. Honestly, you could say much of the same for all of the prospects but those are a few I'm focused on as having watershed years next year.

Lo Cain comes to mind a little bit here That would be nice. You've got to like the extra bases and the speed and reportedly there is defense. Lo Cain was a lower draft pick and had some development time.

I like Jason Rogers' stick more than most here. I don't think his age was as big of a crime against humanity as others' think. He's a late bloomer and started later so he's just older. Big deal. He can hit professionally with a good tool kit and he can hit in the clutch. But the bottom line is you have to like the return here. I also like Stearns' approach of volume. Get enough guys with potential and you're bound to strike gold more often through having more chances at it.

Two things about the Brewers come to mind. It's going to be super interesting seeing who makes the roster coming out of Arizona. Flores, Walsh, Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Rivera, Villar, Broxton, Peterson, Perez. Lots of competition. I've literally never been more fascinated by our system. I'm thinking about it a few days before Christmas. This is so much fun. I said this in another post but we are going to need top 50 lists to keep track of all the guys, especially as we add more and more guys in trades and with high picks the next couple of years.

Good summary on Keon Broxton. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/24/9384295/who-is-pittsburgh-pirates-prospect-keon-broxton

I agree, guys. Let's just play Jason Rogers. All he does is hit, including in the clutch. He reminds me of the type of guy the Cardinals find and drubs us with. And we are like, "where do they find these guys from?" In fact, Rogers hit a grand salami late to beat them. Trust in him. He's a hitter. Let's go. If not, what do we have to lose anyway?

I reckon the point of making Piña a PTBNL was to give Stearns roster flexibility through the Rule 5 draft so he had as many slots open as possible and in case of trades. I take it that he made Detroit carry him on their 40 man thru the Rule 5 draft. We are trying to decipher Stearns' philosophy, but I'm reminded of some of the NFL teams who keep trading down in the draft to increase their odds. I recall Jimmy Johnson talking about the importance of it. He realized that player evaluation had a crapshoot element to it (although that's not all it is is, certainly), and he wanted to increase his odds by having more picks. He devised the chart that teams use to evaluate pick value for trade downs. In any event, Stearns could be trying to get a ton of guys in and hoping some are gold. Cecchini or Villar, maybe one fulfills their once-considered considerable promise. Keep sticking your oars in the water and hit the jackpot. Same with the three prospects from the Mariners with the analytics he likes. Increase the odds by trying to hit on more guys. We will see how it plays out in due time. I find the prospect game to be fascinating. It will be fun watching our prospect lists going forward. Add another easily anticipated couple of big drafts or three and a couple or three nice trades and I will say our 25 lists easily will be more fun out to 50 for us die hards! This time, after the first wave starts rolling through Milwaukee, we've got to be stingier with trading the prospects behind them. A certain number of the guys we anticipate never pan out (LaPorta, Gamel, et al) and we will need all hands on deck behind them so we can't just launch all of the next wave. Some targeted trades are ok. And drive a hard bargain. Look at the Mets. They got Cespedes and told everyone to pound sand on their young pitchers. That's how you negotiate. Our negotiators let all of Odorizzi, Lawrie, Brantley, Cain, Escobar et all get away. While people say you don't get in the playoffs without the trades, the better question is whether better trades could have been negotiated, frankly.

I like the pickup. He was a hot prospect at one time and I liked the hit tool, much like I once liked Mat Gamel's hit tool. Let's see if we get lucky on this one.

Can the Padres afford to give up Hedges? Do they have other catching?

I hope a couple of bats like Perez or Rutherford go ahead of us so we can get one of Groome, Puk, or Hansen. Those guys stand out as potential aces.

Agree on Nelson. Would love to see him really take a big step forward this year. It's time.

I'm all for rebuilding with young talent but agree to disagree on throwing pure nonsensical guys out there every day like Maldy just to win 60 games. That's not a move that makes sense in pushing a franchise forward in any way. You either want to develop your young pitching so they improve or you need to put out a young catcher who is on the upswing. What you don't do is put out there someone who just kills you out there and literally offends your fan base. The fan base is not entirely made up of people in Brookfield with season tickets who are on Brewerfan.net in December talking about 19 year old prospects. It also includes the people around the state in places like Oshkosh or Green Bay or Ripon who drives in for a few a games a year with their family and has never heard of this site and may not get this plan. Those fans look at a .180 hitting veteran catcher who kills you out there with no hope and stops coming to the ball park. Those fans then figure out there's other things to do with their time and never come back. This is a business not an academic theory. Like I said, you put out a player out there everyday who has a purpose for going forward. If you win 60 games organically, then fine. Otherwise, find a prospect who at least has a hope and let him try to develop or play a veteran who can work with a pitching staff and improve the pitchers.

Personally, I am with you guys who are all in on a longer range build up of the organization which involves multiple high draft picks. In 2016 we have a the number 5 pick. Let's hoep we can get one of Alec Hansen, AJ Puk and Jason Groome. Any of them could profile as an ace. That's what we need. We have some prospects to be in that sort of number 2-5 slots in the rotation, when you look at guys like Ponce, Lopez, and existing Jimmy Nelson, along with hopefully Hader, maybe Nate Kirby, Devin Williams, etc. But, we need that big dog. In the second round, I have my eye on the Wisconsin high school catcher, plus we have the comp balance pick. Then, expect 2016 to be bad, and come back with another, say, top 7 pick in 2017. Hope we can get an elite prospect. That draft has some big time catchers. JJ Schwartz and KJ Harrison come to mind. Or maybe we can find a nice 1b or 3b that's a no brainer. Let this talent and depth of talent coalesce. And this time when the critical mass develops, don't trade away the next wave like we did last time. Targeted trades are ok. But we can sustain success by maintaining the farm system and keeping the organizational depth going.

The problem with Maldy is last April and May when Luc was hurt, our team was insanely bad with Maldy behind the dish regularly. It was dreadful. I am not ready for that every day or in a platoon, bless his heart. Backup, yes. Regularly duty gives me pause. That's when we were off the charts, insanely bad.

Bye bye Daniel Murphy.

You can allow your revenue to plummet when your payroll is on the $60-70 million range versus $110 million to start the season. Bandwagon fans will come and go based on if the team is winning or losing but die hard fans who understand the rebuild process will still show up. If the payroll tanks, I really hope we go bonkers on signing international players. I don't know what we can do in Cuba, but get out there and spend on prospects and be clever that way. Or take savings on payroll for the next few years and bank it go above the norm in future years. Payoff the fans with capital investment.