brewcrewdue80

Contract is this. 7.5mil this year. 10 in 2021. 2 if bought out resulting in 2/19.5 Exercise the option is 3/29.5 Garcia if he reaches 550PA in 2021 can decline the option to earn 12mil in 2022 and test FA. Whether that means he ends at 2/17.5 or 2/19.5 who cares. The deal is finished and the Brewers have 12million free to spend in 2022.

Braun will be gone next season so the 2nd yr 550 PAs is an automatic if remains healthy. I posted this in the rumors and will remind Garcia's statcast numbers. 2015 he had a 4.8% barrel 88.5mph exit velo 6.3 Launch expected slg .406 2017 he had 8.8% barrel. 90.3MPH Exit Velo 7.5 Launch expected slg 525 2019 he had 11.7% barrel 89.5MPH Exit Velo 9.8 Launch expected slg .494 The trend is in the positive and the slg difference in 17 vs 19 is due to his K pct being higher in 2019. Youre basically looking at .266-.325 BA maybe even higher if his season is 2017 like. The point is seasons like 2015 and 2016 as an under .700OPS is behind him. He barrels the ball more and launches it higher. The k pct is the difference for him in regards to the BA. 17: 19.8 18:26.5 19: 23.5 He played more games in 17 and 19 so Id assume he's more a 23.5% guy. Same effect in 15 vs 16. 23.5 vs 25.4 15 is the most PAs he seen in a season.

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons. Career 751 OPS. Only 1 season where he was on pace for more than 20 HRs. If he puts up 25 to 28 he could be well above 800 OPS. That's nearly a 10 HR spike for him off his career averages. If he can do what he did in 2019 for the next two years and 5-8 more balls clear the fence, that's a heck of a player. And his betting on himself is going to pay off. The statcast numbers show his launch angle higher than 2017. So like Yelich he's adding loft to get over the fence. Unlike Yelich, it was only a 2% increase frome an already higher Launch angle than Yelich's was previously. That graph also showed a number of Foul outs that would be in the stands at MP. So a few more 2nd chances at production.

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons.

I really like Jeff Sullivan (formerly a great writer/personality for FanGraphs) and he now works in an MLB front office now (Rays). He used to write draft pick recaps for SB Nation, and he did not nail his Yelich profile in 2010... There ya go. Something that makes me feel less crazy. I wonder what Yelich's exit velocity was back then. That stat probably didnt exist then. But curious if it was above normal then but his ground ball results just made it feel he was never going to get. The ball in the air long enough.

I'd never considered this and think it's a pretty great idea. You don't need him in the OF as it stands and 1B would probably be much easier on his back. His length might play well at first, and he's got a poor OF arm anyway. The more I think about it, the more I think this might be a possibility. What if Braun and Yelich split LF and 1B time? Kind of a 1-year arrangement until Braun is gone, then you pick a spot for Yelich, and sign a guy to fill the other spot. Didn't Yelich play some 1B in the minors? No professional history at 1b. I think I mentioned him for 1b in the past thinking he had history there but its just not true. I know I followed him down in Miami. Maybe the 1b is a blurb prior to draft or something that was proposed in a blurb to get up on the ML team or fit an OF crunch. Braun has been the only thing I dont like about this deal. I cant wrap my head on him playing 1b a full season. I even searched on Joc Peterson for 1b to be a trade proposal but it's Bellinger that has 1b experience. And somehow the Dodgers wound up with Max Muncy off Waivers! So trading Braun to the Dodgers and moving Bellinger to 1b isnt happening. So Yelich if he could get 1b time makes more sense than just Braun at 1b. Sure all 4 have injury knicks to consider and believe to work the starting 4 out on its own. The 2yr at least provides after Braun for 2021. As for Braun at 3b, i think Suter would outclass Braun there. Certainly in effort. It'd be great ic Garcia made like 7mil this year and 13 the next. If you split 10mil each season that feels like Starter pay and not sitting on the bench at least 25% of the time. Btw Garcia's last 3 injuries were and Oblique and twice with Hamstring. All he needs is a Back this season and we have Braun part 2 for 2021.

Sounds like 7mil, 7mil, 10mil option or 1mil buyout.

Re Zach Brown. If he was taken in the Rule 5, he has to be on that team's 26man playing in the majors. A trade now past the Rule 5 he wouldn't have that requirement. Not even on the team's 40man as currently with Milw. I think signing Garcia would have to indicate Stearns has a Ray or Lutz trade proposal out there. Garcia would block them in the OF. He wouldnt exactly move the needle. But that includes keeping the needle where we've been at the past seasons and not lowering it.

Was there ever a rumor the Brewers having an interest in Madbum? Was he a guy 2years ago I feel discussed trading for? I think in this instance MadBum has 0 interest playing in Milw. Stearns maybe learned that 2years ago. The deal is a solid one I think. Good luck to him.

Robinson on the fumble just stood there watching the Packers recover. I know there's some rule to offense cant fumble recover forward in to endzone. But does that rule apply after the defense takes near full control? The booth attempt to award Chi a free 1st down was a joke. The WRs didnt even try selling like a PI had happened. It was a good play, no ref threw the flag. And yet they had to look at it? Would the booth have looked at it had a flag been thrown for the benefit that there wasnt a PI like the refs in that instance are calling? This team is not going places in the playoffs. Matt Lafluer is clearly a rookie coach and while some drives his playcalls are brilliant. There are numerous mistakes at times. As said by one before, stepping on the throats. I think he is losing at. It reverts to the almost I have Rodgers well make at least 1 1st down just because of that. Next thing you know 3 and outs in back to back drives. Think about Rodgers and targets in the 4th qtr. Allison had a drive he had 2catches in. I dont think he had a target after that. Wheres the FB or other TE sorta trick playcall? I seen Sternberger run blocking that final drive. Im waiting for the Playaction where he fakes a block and roams free since when has that happened? Surprise on defense. Lazard not getting targets. Positive is they came out in 2nd half great adjustments great approach. But then the rookie took over.

3TOs use one there. I seen that sack coming from a mile away. They must have had 8 on that line and Rodgers had no audible looking at that?

I think the offense need to treat Adams like they treat Jones and Williams. Give him a drive off. Rodgers has been really bad with sharing his throws. No Adams in a drive. MLF and Rodgers can key on other players. Also No Graham when Adams is off the field.

Typical HAHA defense. late getting there.

So since I found the way to get prior statcast numbers on Hitters here's where the two Garcia/Castellanos stand. Numbers are 2017-2019 left to right. Exit Velocity- Garcia 90.3/90.3/89.5 Castellanos 89.1/89.6/89.0 Barrel Pct- Garcia 8.8/11.6/11.7 Castellanos 10.7/11.2/11.2 Launch Angle- Garcia 7.5/9.6/9.8 Castellanos 14.1/15.2/13.9 K%&BB%- Garcia 19.8&5.9/26.5&6.2/23.6&5.8 Castellanos 21.4&6.2/22.3&7.2/21.5&6.2 Here's where statcast helps. They have a career and what their 2019 suggested in BA/SLG/OB For Garcia the last 3: .309/.375/.525 .254/.304/.466 .275/.334/.494 OPS of .900, .770, .828 Career avg: .278/.324/.464 OPS of .788 Castellanos last 3: .290/.341/.546 .301/.363/.530 .283/.358/.547 Ops of .887, .893, .905 Career avg: .285/.345/.527 OPS of .872 Avisail as mentioned before Bad in CF, Avg to just under in RF, Above avg in LF. Castellanos just grades below avg anywhere you put him. BWAR is Avisail 6.9 to Castellanos 5.6 the last 3 years. Castellanos hasn't played 1b. In truth yep they are about the same player moving forward. Castellanos will provide close to twice the value with the bat and Garcia provides twice the value in defense. Garcia does have some nicks in injuries. Oblique and Hamstring strains. And last would maybe be that park overlay with their Statcast numbers. FWIW have a look at Yelich: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-yelich-592885?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb He was just about better in 19 than any of his '18 numbers. (they somehow have his Hard hit % less)

Ok. Found it on MLB Savant. 2015 you could say Belt was near Elite Exit velocity and a launch angle just above 15. The last 4 seasons have been 20% or higher. The exit velocity decreased. So with that said I think the regression is likely to continue and Id pass on him. Hed have to change 4seasons of his swing tendencies. Good stuff though to figure out.

Hmm. Interesting pull on my feelings. Belt has always been a favorable projection to do more than his stats ever show. And in that I was going to come in and say go get him. But I had to delve in to some recent numbers and injury history. The findings. Last year he had an incredibly higher FB tendency and 22% Launch angle. The ML avg. Is just over 12%. A well below BABIP from his career numbers. Things that are big bounceback candidates. But then I seen his exit velocity was a full 1MPH below League Average, something I thought would be higher. Be interesting to see those numbers for the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Mostly because: Injury. 2017 he finished the season on the IL due to a Concussion. We're talking from August and not returning back. His numbers have been down each of the last 2 seasons and one can wonder if that concussion injury has some to do with it. I dont know how (on my phone currently) to find those statcast numbers MLB.com posts on a hitter for that season prior to the current season. If someone can pull up his 2017 and 2018 it'd be great to see and compare 2019 with. The exit velocity and launch angle if a bit different could conclude a fix in his swing returns him back to his better hitting days. .harder exit velocity resulting in higher BABIP and better BA than 2019. If the improvement could be just a tinker in his swing, hes a great buy low candidate where feasibly Id ask for the Giants to kick in 12million on a swap with maybe sending a low prospect back. If the statcast shows a big change in 2017 and similar 2018&2019 numbers then Id have to worry that the Concussion has left a permanent detriment on his hitting skills. When it comes to Defense, Belt is better than Thames by a bit. He's not an OF which SF has had play a bit of..I think I seen 22starts last year. Probably on the effort to give Posey 1b time. So unless you looked at his position stats vs just overall season def rating you missed out on that. Hes 11.+% BBs and below 23% I believe it was K Rate. So he could easily be a .275/360 low K batter in the lineup. And 2years is a good length for the current window. If the Giants are more in to a rebuild then paying a chunk of his salary should be simple to make the contract desirable.

I wouldn't say that high, but if I had to pick one Brewers prospect who could step in and fill Hader's multi-inning fireman role, it would be Rasmussen. Fastball that has touched 99 miles per hour, can go 2-3 innings at a time. Big difference is he actually has two other pitches he can command (slider and change-up), whereas Hader doesn't. I think the AFL performance of Clayton Andrews also looks promising in that regard. His bat's pretty good, too. Id have to believe Peralta is the 8th/9th inning sans Hader. He Ks high. Jas heart Attack perfected if turned closer. But as young as he is improvement stands to meke him stud.

By looking at the numbers he seems a plus defender in LF and just average or below in RF. As for CF looks bad. Seems range is the factor here. Above at LF. Right at in RF and quite below for CF. Isnt Gamel the backup for CF?

Feel fairly Meh on this. I'll guess 5mil with incentives to 10mil for a deal, like Lindbloom.

Hmm who was it the Brewers had? Gilbert Lara. Considered one of the best in 2015. He's now 21 and only reached High A ball.(god I loved him as a 16yr old signing) Best RP in Baseball and in some respects history for a 16yr old who may be a monster. The Yankees are a terrible trade partner because what they have to offer are all Mid Floor players and nothing higher in ceiling potential. We're talking highest ceiling for a RP reached in Hader. If he's going to head to a LA or NY team, that's providing immense cost savings for the 300+mil contract hand out teams. If Hader were a FA now with these stats, He's being paid 20mil a year by one of them for 5years.

Not to go too far off topic, but this has to be addressed. It is pure insanity to view Hiura's bat as a question mark and not include him in any quality hitters group. I agreed with most of the rest of your post, but Hiura's bat is elite and that isn't debatable. He struck out as many times as Arcia in 200 fewer at bats. He’s awesome when he hits it, but it’s a legit question. The GM doesn’t keep players around who strike out 160+ times Exit Velocity is the case here. Hiura is at 91.4 Arcia a career best 87.5 last season. 87.5 is MLB average. At least it was on this site. Andujar doesn't have the history I'd take him in a Hader trade. Nor does Frazier have the history. These are sub .800OPS bats history and Frazier certainly doesn't move the needle for an OF even if he would exceed .800. Someone mentioned Stearns is asking for a team's #1 prospect at minimum in the deal. Yanks don't have that player. This is Stearns essentially telling the Dodgers to start with Lux. The Mets with JD Davis and Dominic Smith would fill the need and maybe tip the trade in value the Mets add Mark Vientos who looks the part of future 3b stud/maybe 1b. Yeah we wouldn't have pitching until we signed a guy like Kuechel.

Oh Boy I couldn't finish the video with the terrible batters. Early in it he definitely got away with some meatball/mistakes. Junior Guerra part 2 is what I'm seeing in this signing. Is it not? RH 91MPH FB Splitter/Cutter? You at least have a track record that he can pitch 190innings now vs where Guerra was. Though again those hitters are 4 pitch outs that MLB hitters will induce 6-8 pitch battles. So lower the expectation on that IP potential. I think if the SP isn't there he won't likely make the incentives and so then what we have is a 3mil a year RP. Vs a 6mil a year SP. Values either way.

Re: playoff ideas. Y'all making it to hard. Solution is easy. You force a week 12 or 13 bye week during the season. You have a top 16 in playoff standings. And the committee creates matchups to help them in making decisions on playoff 4 post conference championships. This would be having the non power 5 team thats undefeated play a game vs Clemson or Alabama type that is in the top 5 currently and fits the following. Say its WI 1 Penn St 8 and while being in same conference likely wont play eachother, now they do. The non power 5 would be matched up with say Ohio State who beat Penn St, lost to WI. No more wondering on that undefeated non power 5. Meanwhile you pair say oklahoma vs Auburn. Clemson vs Georgia. LSU vs Utah, if were going off this season. It'd be the Playoff Buster week for NCAA football. Basically all matchups that wouldnt be in the same conference unless the scenario where they arent playing eachother potentially in the following week to come. Maybe it just 12 or 14 teams. The committee gets 6-8 games of clarity for the final 4. Where would the games be held at? NFL teams would randomize hosting these games. A Team would be on the road that week and thus creating a Nuetral field matchup. Think Clemson and Bama had an easy schedule? Boom matchup. This week is held during the season so nope NFL prospects you arent skipping this game. Imagine Lambeau Field hosting a Matchup one year where its Oklahoma vs a Clemson?

Ok. From what I seen the thought above on graduates is not the case. Ots just bad after bad. But here are the two to target. Mike Ford and or Ben Heller. Ford has been previously mentioned. Heller is a RP with a solid history yet to take any foothold in the Majors. Seems he was finishing gamea in the Minors and had a few for the Yankees. He Should have 4 or 5yrs control and since you may need Bullpen help for Happ's performance he would help. Another thing of note on Happ. This is essentially a contract year for him. If hes pitching well bonus. If hes just that 5. You release him before September. Or August whatever it may be. And let another team pick him up and deal with the option potential.

I think Id feel safer at SP with Happ than Burnes as the #5. Al East to NL Central. Their prospects suck though. Some say Frazier to replace Braun but Frazier's bat is worse than Brauns today. Nothing about leaves 800+ OPS future consistently. So I think we'd be taking care of two headaches for the yankees. I suppose you can take the 16yr who signed for 5mil from them and hope he makes it to AA. The Yankees must have a lot of graduated prospects in 2019 to have such a sad farm. Guess time to go check what is on their ML rpster.