brewcrewdue80

WAR is an accumulated stat. Side by side if Davies pitches 180IP and Cobb pitches 180innings Cobb beats Davies probably by a Full 1 WAR. Cobb's career ERA is 3.5 to 3.91 Davies. Strictly RA9 it's 3.73 to 4.24 Fip 3.68 to 4.05 Cobb's career IP per start is 6.1 to Davies 5.8. There's just not much you can say Davies does better aside from durability. What Davies works with he does well, but it is limited.

Or ding up and miss games with a more fragile body. Guess depends on what his build is now vs the 40lbs ago build.

Going off a Nelson Anderson Chacin Davies Woodruff Expected 5 man rotation, most definitely. He has a smaller window of projection over all 5 and the bottom of that window is close to the top of Davies window. The other 4 can beat that bottom and in Nelson/Anderson exceed his top. The overall is he'd slide in an equal to Nelson/Anderson probably even to Opening Day starter as our 4th game is the Home Opener. After Woodruff, there isn't a current 5th starter with Nelson out remotely close to Cobb. At least that statement is currently, and not if a future SP is found by other means before Cobb's signing.

A lot of this is interesting, but while this makes sense for Kris Bryant, a lot of teams would wait even longer to call their guys up so as not to start that clock of doom. There could be an advanced stats way of doing this, but PCL/Colorado Springs would be horrifying. Say the Brewers called up Garrett Cooper (prior to the trade) in an emergency last year and started his clock. So their choices would be to cut him completely or to live with the fact that he was going to hit .330/.420/.600 in Colorado Springs and probably earn $5 million dollars for destroying the juiced up PCL/Colorado Springs while probably not being a good MLB player? That is partly the point. You play a guy for game 1 through the season or game 161, It's 1 year on his clock. If you were the Cubs are you really sitting Bryant another full season? You do make a good point to be hashed out on the AAA stats skewing a player's Arb when it counts his time down in the minors and stats. With all the analytics these days, I would expect you can get a decent idea on park factors to come to a dollar amount. Besides that, if Arbitration has the Team's number and the players number if you go to the Arbitrator. Often you get a deal somewhere in between vs the Roll the Dice decision to be handed to the player. 5.5mil or fighting for 6.6mil, with minors stats being a part of the equation, do you really want to gamble 1.1mil on that factor? Or say I'll take 6mil and settle? I can see also AAAA players having a lot of success making money on this. So, maybe you write it in somehow how to determine that players arbitration. Also, you can of course just go the non-tender route to that kind of player who becomes a FA then, and can just sign elsewhere to what a team values him at. My main idea is that you actually give a team 7years of control right from the start. No gaming it one way to get that or another to avoid Super 2. Super 2 just exists.

Or, maybe it was, The Brewers added bats atop their lineup and rumored to be best offer to Darvish who would immediately put them scary contenders to their "dynasty roster" So guess what, I targeted him from day 1, this wasn't a direct move to our biggest rival coming in to the season who would make us look bad I mean Me in a span of 2 seasons.

Easy. East has 1 Playoff team and 3 rebuilders West has 3 Playoff teams and 1 rebuilder. Take my chances on the favorable matchups with the Mets duo

They would free up a lot of payroll flexibility in a year in which they need to, clear up a logjam in the outfield by waiving Kemp, and get at least one worthwhile prospect from LAD. And the Dodgers are scrimping on payroll this year to avoid the luxury tax, which trading Kemp for Braun does for them if I'm not mistaken (pretty sure they're only a few million over). But the context of the original idea was Kemp for Braun not adding the pieces assumed here by some. Certainly they should receive something back but until that rumor appears I am taking it as Braun for Kemp straight up.

I just don't get the trade idea. Aren't the Dodgers scrimping on payroll? What does a 6 man crowded OF get when trading 1 OF for another OF? I'd expect if we got Kemp, he'd simply be waved, so the best we'd do in trading Braun is saving his 3rd year of his contract? I mean come on!

Yeah 4/60 is probably more than his actual production to date, but he's probably 4/66 to sign. is my guess or at least his ask. I mean Arrieta is a 4/100 or higher ask? So Makes sense to ask for 66 for him. He's easily 2/3rds of Arrieta's "value"

Another Brewers disaster trade idea. We get Fulmer and a Flier? For Studly Santana, oh and top ten prospects Ortiz, Peralta, and toolsy 1st rd pick Ray? I'd take Duplantier and Clarke from Arizona for Santana. Yes Fulmer adds to this team, but you're adding Ortiz and Peralta with Ray. As of now, that would be something like Santana-our #4 and 5 prospects and flier Detroit-Fulmer Arz-#2 and 3 prospects and flier(top 10?) Just feel we are giving too much when we are trading a bat and ML performer like Santana. Clarke could be added to the rotation for '18 with a preview of his talents before deadline or Nelson return. Meanwhile you still have the better SP prospect Duplantier to come up or use in a trade when that comes. I think if we got Clarke back with Fulmer and the flier went to Detroit that would work.

Just hand every player the Super 2 status. You get a player for 7 seasons, unlimited options Day 1 starts his clock and runs continuously even as optioned, which you can make unlimited rather than the current way. Only part being, is his Minors stats he accrues counts towards the arbitration figures. The one and only exception to this is September callups. A player/team are allowed 1 callup after a team has lost 81games and those days not count as a way to give fans in a lost season a chance to see their prospect play when a team wouldn't call him up otherwise. So no 9 days and gain an extra year of team control. You have team control of a player 6.001 to 6.181 and like I said the clock runs whether in majors or minors once he plays first game in Majors.

Why pay prospect cost equivalent to Archer for 1 year less team control? Age. Stroman starts the season 26 turning 27 in May. Archer turns 30 at season's end. Stroman pitched 2 CGs last year (1 against us) 6 games pitched in to the 8th inning or later. Lower HR/9 rate. Throws 5 pitches that are avg or better value. Trending better at prime age vs. trending stale? approaching 30 age. And the fact Santana would have more value to Toronto than Tampa so maybe you're getting less cost on what it takes to trade for. But at same time, Toronto would need a big trade return to entice them to move Stroman, as they need him more than we do. Trading Stroman would be a sign of not competing to .500 this year or "Tanking" So yeah, a Trade Deadline deal makes most sense with him as if Toronto weren't looking good trading away Stroman on a "Lost" season would present to the fans more reasonable than doing so now.

Wasn't great last year but it was his first extended look in the bigs. Dominated in the minors so I would be 100% on board with sending Broxton for a young controllable guy with upside. Looking at his minor league stats, I guess I wouldn't say that he "dominated" down there. Solid numbers, but certainly not Corbin Burnes 2017 type domination. If this deal would go down - what would we be looking to do with Cotton? Does he take one of the rotation spots? If so, that's certainly not an "all-in" type of move by the Brewers. Yes, there may be some upside with him, but we are talking about a guy who really struggled in his first full year of MLB action last year. Wow has he turned bad at allowing HRs these 2 HR seasons MLB has had of late. Whatever this ball change they had, he has taken a nosedive at keeping the ball in the park. 2.0/9 pitching in Oakland? I can see why Broxton value is there for him. Imagine Cotton has options, and he's your band-aid til Nelson returns or the trade deadline as he most likely not performing worthy enough to maintain a spot in rotation through the year.

Ken Rosenthal mentioned Cotton as a target for the Brewers just a couple of days ago, but the speculation was that it would cost Santana. Broxton seems way too low of an offer for Cotton. Right? Maybe you are including Jesus Aguilar as a Platoon 1b bat solving the Braun dilemma.

No, Lopez has always had questions to his control. It's always been projected as below average. Woodruff has been projected as above average since 2016.

Several teams need OF at this point: Notably: Cleveland Arizona Tampa Others. What does Tampa need in the OF? Like the Brewers they are 4 deep now before adding Santana. https://www.thescrumsports.com/rays/kiermaier-souza-will-anchor-solid-outfield-2018/ May be helpful to see how Rays view their OF.

This type of thinking is why fans of small market teams hate fans/media from large markets. "They have to get rid of him and they want to shed payroll so they will just take our leftovers." How is it do you suppose that the Rays acquired Odorizzi in the first place? Their whole business model depends on acquiring high value mlb ready prospects with plenty of team control remaining to replace the established players they are dealing away. They're not dealing guys like Archer or Odorizzi without getting multiple players who project to be MLB starters. I think they would probably ask for Santana & Woodruff as a starting point for Odorizzi. Which is way too much. If they were just going to give him away for Diplan & Dubon, that deal would have been done in December. What you said is on point. The offer doesn't follow that. I'd have to assume Ortiz, Ponce, and say Nottingham would be more their flavor on an Odorizzi deal. Santana/Woodruff is far and away an overpay, Santana alone is, but I wouldn't trade Woodruff straight up for Odorizzi. Woodruff is a part of the rotation, removing him for 2 years of Odorizzi where heads up they likely perform equal, isn't helping the team's depth. You still need another SP now and you gave away a #4 upside for a #3 upside and 4 years less control. #4 upside on Woodruff is for this year's stats only mind you. I think he has #2 upside in the future.

Well since the Agent39 post shows he demanded 26.5mil a year from the Cubs, This is about 30million short overall and 6.5million short on just through his player option years. You meet him halfway at 25mil per 5/125 with the player option It probably needs to be 27,26, 24, 24, 19 written your way above. It's terrible deal regardless for Milwaukee unless it leads to WS in first 2 years before opting out on account of his pitching.(We can win a WS and he stinks because the O/Nelson/Anderson whomever really wins it for us) Lynn and Cobb are far safer bets for far less money.

What a Joke on Hosmer's part to ask for 8years if he has 7/140 offers. He's not even that good for a 1b bat. Just Defensively. So in 6 years Arcia should be getting 7 year 140million offers and declining it for an 8th year? Well at least I thought he was a good Defensive 1b with those GGs and all, but don't look at BRef on his DWar, not 1 season positive. Arrieta shouldn't have had a bad season in a contract year. He's getting what that deserves. The way this is going, I doubt a single Boras FA gets signed before the season begins. Kudos to the owners/GMs not bowing down to his demands and making him sweat. Every week that passes in to the season without his clients signed, must be a Hundred thousand not filling his pocket.

Not every bat has to be .800 OPS when the player plays great defense future GG quality. Because he posted .723 OPS in 100 games, but fail .731 at the ML level last year. He's improving on something that has always been behind his defensive ability. And he's 23. He's the youngest batter this Century with over 4 games played to play for Colorado Springs in a season. What is he supposed to post for you to think his bat would be alright moving forward? Give him games at generally the youngest ages that pass through Colorado repeating at 22. What does he have to post at that age? Brendan Ryan has 15 career BWAR mostly earned his first 6years with a .658 and .580 OPS split 4 years for Stl and 3 for Seattle. Age 25-31. How sad would it be to give up your best defensive SSs at the time to Acquire Grienke twice as a Franchise? And Arcia is far better than Alcides like, really really far.

Don't see it in him making that ToR potential. He doesn't have any kind of secondary pitch that is a net-positive, gives up a lot of FBs and Hard Contact. High Whip and Fly Ball issues is not a good MP combo. Wouldn't give up Woodruff straight up for him.

Not me here. And that article is nitpicking pitches. That said, the article was written during last season and was about him as a streaming option during what most likely is your Fantasy Playoff stretch. As a rookie with the velocity, missing by the little that the gifs shown I see as a positive. He has better control than Jimmy did coming in to the League. The Gifs of those sliders vs Realmuto are top notch sliders. As a rookie. I said it before but I will comp him to Lance Lynn with higher upside. Lynn has been worth 14.9FWar and oddly 14.9BWar in 5 full years of pitching. I have no doubt Woodruff will pitch better than a hopeful 4.5ERA and likely under 4ERA on the season. His history is keeping the Ball in the park with Groundball positives. Now, I don't see his stuff/repertoire leading to ToR but the Lynn high #3 to perfection/consistency. I would not be surprised he led the team pitching by the season end.(hold on what?) That statement is going on Anderson regressing back to norm, Nelson's return in pitching being bad, and Davies/Chacin I feel Woodruff can beat outright. I'm really looking forward to him tossing 200-208 Innings for us probably by 2019.

It goes towards the perception here against a Lynn signing because he's pitched for St. Louis and all of the signings from them turn out like crap so Lynn will be just like that. He's younger and better than both at the time, but gets no respect here aside from myself and maybe 2 or 3 others. His last 5 seasons starting full year he's averaged 188.2IP. Cobb has never pitched 188 in any full season. Odorizzi has gone 187.2 as his highest with a 4.22 career Fip Archer beats Lynn in this category with 202.1 IP average his last 4 years starting. But he'll cost a good majority of our top prospects being just 1 year younger than Lynn w/o TJ in his past. And add his Hard hit/HR rate trends. I compare the two as both not being the ToR you want in the Playoffs. But undeniably they will help your team through a full season in quality and decent to start in a 7 game series. I didn't do Archer in my previous post well he had 9 games last season out of 34: 4,5,6,4,4,4,4,6, and 5. His September was 6 starts 21.2IP 18ERs with 4 of those 6 starts not going over 4IP 0 yes 0, 3, 4, and 3.2. 1 QS 6Ip 2ER That's for the ToR people that want Archer as your Wild Card Playoff game starter. He was better in '16 but all of his Sept starts he gave up 2 or 3ERs not one 0 or 1 Run game(see my TOR post thoughts) '15 only 1 QS in September-31 IP 20ERs '14 he was quality 5 of 6 in September-33.1 IP only 11 ERs (6 in his bad game) '13 Just 2 of 6 QS in September- 26.1 IP 14 ERs I get we would like an Ace/ToR type for a 1 game playoff but, I see more of, you don't need that 1 game guy if you go out and win your Division. Lynn is quality on accomplishing that, a reason he's 72-47 for his career. 11-8 last year. Winning 60% of your decisions is a 97win team pace. Yeah I'll take that over the next few seasons with Burnes/Peralta still in our system with the hopes Burnes takes a future ToR as Lynn fades.

I mean, Alex Cobb was absolute trash in 2016 coming back from TJ. Is he an 8+ERA pitcher with 6+Fip? How many pitchers(if any) have come back from TJ and pitched 33 games the next season? Lynn did it to the tune of 14.2 IP 15 ER his final 4 starts. 10 of 11 games started prior to that he allowed 2 ER or less with the 1 being just 4ERs. Those 10 were 70IP 11ER Which is a 1.41 ERA in 10/11 games. Add the "bad" game it is a 1.88ERA over 11 game stretch before wheels falling out. All told 6 of his 33 starts were 4 Earned runs or more with the other 27 being 3 runs or less. 3 games of 7,7, and his Sept .2IP 8ER. The other 3 were 4ER games. Chase had 4 of those games 4,4,4,and 6. Nelson had 7 of those games 7,5,4,4,4,4, and 9. Davies had 9 of those games 6,5,4,4,4,7,4,5,6 and 6. in 33 starts. Go to Lynn's 2015 and he had 6 in 31 starts. 6,5,5,5,4, and 6. All told that is 52 of 64 starts he allowed 3 earned runs or less. Arrieta had 7 starts of 30. 4,5,5,4,4,4,5 Only 3 September starts with 2 allowing 3ERs in 2.1 and 3IP starts. so near 9/30 starts. You know the only one coming back from Tommy John in '17 was? Lynn who maintained similar velocity in '17 than in '15. Maybe St. Louis isn't in on Lynn because of their current payroll already being at where they've started Opening Day the last 2 seasons. Maybe it's on their general philosophy to not resign their FAs. They have a Woodruff of their own in Luke Weaver plus another SP in Jack Flaherty who is on the cusp of ML time. They had one of the best SP prospects to head in to '17 in Alex Reyes about to enter their rotation but had TJ. The Cardinals don't need Lynn for next 4 years. The Cubs did need Arrieta or someone as they have no one in AAA knocking at the door. And they have multiple more under 24 who are going to be pushing for time. The guy has 1 season of a whip over 3.5 and he's crap moving forward. Yet in the Darvish thread, you expect Arrieta to get paid as much or worth more? Know who's older? Arrieta by a full year. Who's 2 year run is the only time his Fip was under 3.5 and coming off 4.16 Fip this year. If I'm going to get a guy for 4/60 vs a guy for 5/110 I'll take the one who has a better history when it comes to consistency and also younger for less money. FWIW Lohse never once! in his career had a Fip below 3.5 of course it was 3.51 the season before we signed him. Jeff Suppan's BEST Fip was 4.29! 17year career never under 4.29 Fip. Lynn's career Fip sits at 3.64 after his bad 2017.

Well 70gs isn't good for 4years. Get him above 100 pitching in NL and Im putting it that hell be closer to that 18 with his consistency than Arrieta going the wrong way in stats.quote="SRB"] Well first two years in that 4 are his cy young quality. The last two havent. Put the last two side by side and compare. Noted before his velocity WP. Ive said at least two times, but his #2 pitch went from reliably elite to barely average ML pitch. Theres nothing moving forward that would suggest he'll ever reach 14&15. Darvish pitched in AL and a lot more consistently. If youre going to commit 5years one is good with consistency, the other has been wild turned Ace back to wild and less velocity. In any heads up game its a wash. But taking your 4years FWar value it is likely Darvish is 18 and Arrieta is 10 moving forward. Darvish is going to set new career bests in his mid-30s? I agree with your other points, I don't think Arrieta is perfect, but if he didn't have those question marks and remained a shutdown ace in 2016-2017 he would be looking at a deal over $200M right now.