brewcrewdue80

It is getting ridiculous(anyone else hate spelling this word?) that we are nearing Pitchers/Catchers report and still top 4 FA SPs YET to be signed! I mean, it's a life change happening to this player, who will need to find a new home, sell? of old home and such. I don't know that I want my SP worrying on that leading up to beginning the season, one that you would hope if very successful in the initial starts, since you just committed a boatload of money for said player. Oh, edit add....Maybe that is a leading why to Darvish back with Texas rumors.

If you believe Herrera is of only a 10-15prospect value from us, KC is not trading him any time soon. He's a perfect RP trade piece at the deadline who with his previous success will bring back a LOT more than White Sox got Schwarzak for Ryan Cordell. With an under 3ERA at the deadline, I'd guess Freddy Peralta and Trent Grisham/Ray type of return and hoping KC doesn't just hang up

And this is why my brain hurts continually reading Mejia as a trade target. See this posters above? Pina isn't fixing that because Cleveland's plan is Mejia is fixing that. They already given Mejia a taste of the Majors with 11 games in a September callup. He is that close to being Cleveland's every day Catcher and solving the "Both of Cleveland's catchers flat out stink offensively" I'd say an equivalent in 2016's off season would be Cleveland trading us Cody Allen for Josh Hader because our bullpen is bad. What about Trevor Bauer? For Santana? And the name I said before Willi Castro SS(seems like a Stearns up the middle tools guy) Now before writing off Bauer understand he was a top 10 prospect at one point and you could look at his stats and he's gradually improving with a 10k/9 last year moving to the NL. He's also pitched 176/190/176 innings the last 3 years. He would come at 3 years of Arb Team control. You would be hedging your IP out of him over Danny Salazar while sacrificing a little quality. His 21 Games of Interleague stats he has a 71OPS+ against vs 100 for his career. So another sign a move the NL could benefit him well. Why hasn't this trade happened? Maybe it's because Bauer and Cleveland are in the 1st year taken to Arb where apparently it's 5.3mil or 6.52mil yet to be decided. Obviously, a win on Bauer's part increases his future salary and likely increases the Brewers return in the trade idea. The opposite would hold true if Bauer loses it and being cheaper, the Indians don't send back as high a prospect.

Based on a video/read somewhere, Ray was most likely "Adjusting" too much with his swing. Setup and swing. He's just no good with a wooden bat. Does Milwaukee advance above A ball when he has shown no reason to be? What Ray's Ceiling has become is Jarrod Dyson only worse with the bat.

Just got home from work, while driving I thought out loud, there's no real need for Walker anymore. The top of the Lineup is now covered. At best Walker is #6 in this lineup. You dont need his consistency over Villar getting a new chance while batting 8th? Behind Arcia. Now you save FA money and maybe make a higher offer to Darvish?

Grienke plus 100mil for Broxton. Grienke costs far too much for worse positives than signing Darvis to what he's asking

Problem is the four remaining definitely are not equal. Darvish and Arrieta are probably the only two who are actually TOR type guys. Darvish puts this team on the map, that’s for sure. I posted splits on the big 4 left. And Arrieta is the worst of the 4. Darvish and it wasnt even close. Lynn/Cobb virtual tie at #2 but Lynn's more GS would make him 2nd best

I don't really like Corbin so that is the least I would take for Santana but, in reality, we'd probably only receive one of those two prospects back in a trade along with Corbin. Segura and Banda brought back Anderson and Diaz plus? Santana should be worth more than 1 season of Corbin +. Anderson/vorbin are #4s at the time of these trades. Corbin doesnt improve the team enough to be the pitcher you target in a trade with Santana. With Broxton, Corbin is the type of pitcher you target. It wouldnt be straight up but a 16-25 prospect included in system as the throw in. Also, including Woodruff in trades, I mean you had better use him in trades where the pitcher is clearly special over Woodruff. That would be like Jon Gray in Colorado, or Jose Berrios in Minnesota. Fulmer, where hes at is not doing that. Clevinger is not doing that, not a guy with 4+BB/9. I dont get why some are so down on Woodruff when he was top 80 prospect. And with his performance as a rookie? I believe hes going to be a strong 3 for the next 6 years. Milw,s version of Lance Lynn who produced #2 stats at occasions.

Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022. I think this is more on the account of Braun's contract 20,19,17, and 15 reducing so the effect on both is essentially the same. You would also leave a higher amount to spend on the next 4year FA signing? while having Braun's contract end, along with Chacin/Thames coming off the books.

You know, I'm thinking there's a little bit of prior bias in Tampa trading (their best SP at the time) and the asking price for Archer is over the top when Prior top pitchers for Tampa were Price, Shields, and even Garza(whos netted Archer as part of return) Now, again why Tampa would look to acquire Santana or Phillips as headliners to an Archer trade doesn't make sense with their current OF as well as Santana's team control. Tampa has always acquired a promising SP in these trades so Burnes headlines an Archer trade certainly. Probably Ortiz too. Meanwhile we are still holding on to Santana. So indeed, Archer wipes out our top 100 prospects. Well, Hiura survives but just like that the Brewers #2 is what Lutz? Peralta? Erceg? You still gotta have the odds on favorite being Santana for Salazar. I don't believe you are taking Kipnis in this deal. Wouldn't be surprised throw-ins on both sides to happen. Something like SS Willi Castro from Cleveland and Marcos Diplan from Milw. Maybe a lesser on Milw's end but Castro would be like replacing Diaz in terms of the depth in the system from the Yelich trade.

We'll see if people are singing that tune in year 4 and 5 of this contract... 1 trip to the WS in the next 3 years Cain will be able pitch every 5 days and people won't care to what he's being paid.

Taking the overlay posted on Yelich's Spray chart on Fly Balls- In Miami his Home numbers were: .265/.352/.391/.743 7HRs I believe 8 of those fly balls would result in HRs in MP with 2 that were outs in Miami. Changing the home overlay stats to: ..272/.358/.459/ .817 15HRs His Road stats: .299/.385/.484/ .869 11HRs Season total becomes: .286/372/.472/ .844 26HRs about 108runs with 90RBI At Wrigley: .344/.388/.590/.978 career Busch: . .295/.347/.477/ .824 Great American: .180/.236/.280/ .516 PNC: .348/.394 /.621/ 1.016 FWIW.

Would love to, but they happen to be one of like 5 teams that ZiPS hasn't been released for yet. Okay Great. Thanks. Look forward to whenever that happens. BillHall: Projection systems are pretty good. They're probably wrong about the Brewers. Doesn't mean you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I like the systems and then can use my own opinion to maybe find a few places where the computer projections are wrong about a team or player. I'd rather have them than not have them. If it means some person really is locked in on the idea that the Brewers are still a 77 win team, so be it. KeithStone: They tend to be ok for established, consistent players...but how many guys are like that. They also are terrible at projecting young players improving, old players regressing, and guys hitting peak years. I mean it's something I guess, but unless guys are established and relatively consistent...the numbers aren't worth much. I can agree on both sides to this. Some projections give you an idea what a Newer player may be like. They are often wrong,(typically PA/Games played) but you can then come up with your own sorta projection with say 50 more games played or something like that. Keith I can get a wth are they thinking when projections really disrespect ideas that I have for that player. A Guy like Woodruff who at this time, I fully expect to have 32 Games started on the season. I'll just guess the projections have him for maybe 11-14 starts for the season. And it's the same with older players. They'll be 3WAR types that projection's remove 1WAR to them and about 25 games expectation less than say 152 games. It'd be so great if you just tell so or so FA this is your projection for next season and 5 years of that is worth X dollars. I mean, I think last season Braun after a 3.8BWAR season was projected for just 1.8 last year. I mean they just ignored the most recent season or career avg and set him at such a low value. I'm sure it's something like 1.4 this year. They just ought to be a little more positive vs the negative. It's almost like in their computing they put a formula in to account for 10% injury lost playing time and a 10% hit on stats due to injury.

We have depth in the rotation, but we definitely need better arms at the top of the rotation. I posted this in another thread, but here's what the ZiPS projections look like for our pitchers vs. the ones we're talking about: [pre]Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+ Nelson 3.74 3.79 9.1 3.1 115 Davies 4.05 4.06 6.8 2.6 108 Woodruff 4.17 4.17 8.2 3.2 103 Anderson 4.32 4.48 7.9 2.9 100 Suter 4.41 4.41 7.2 2.6 98 Chacin 4.77 4.68 7.5 3.8 90 Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+ Archer 3.27 3.10 10.6 2.7 125 Stroman 3.54 3.47 7.8 2.5 121 Salazar 3.60 3.48 11.2 3.5 117 Duffy 3.78 3.86 8.2 2.5 112 Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+ Darvish 3.24 3.22 11.0 2.7 127 Arrieta 3.53 4.16 8.7 2.9 123 ('17 numbers, '18 ZiPS not available yet) Cobb 3.77 4.00 6.7 2.3 108 Lynn 3.82 4.25 7.7 3.7 106[/pre] If we can grab two of those arms to put at the top of the rotation it'd be a huge upgrade, especially for a potential postseason run. That may be getting ahead of ourselves a bit, but that's the point of all this right? If the prospects are pushing their way onto the roster, that's great and we have a depth of quality arms to deal to replenish the farm or other areas (just as we've created with the outfield). But right now we don't have a 1-2-3 punch that I would feel good going into the playoffs with. I would be surprised if we actually landed two more pitchers, but I can definitely see where some see the need is coming from. Can you also add the current state of the Cubs rotation for comparison? Just to see how high these projections are.

Good point I mean if he's a 4WAR+ projection for 5years, how are you not giving that? But, then again, do QOs even exist in 5years?

Keep santana 1 sp fa Walker Cut Gallardo now and sign an upside bp arm like Oh 1 year. Williams houser Ramirez all to CS... leverage innings. Is that asking too much? We can even trade Villar and Broxton away for lottery tickets. I don't have any real feelings on Gallardo making OD. Signing Oh would be on a cheaper deal as who do you think he is? Rookie year performer? Or Last year's AAAA RP(after the league had a year to adjust?) He'll be 35 and I would be inclined more on the 2nd performer over the 1st. Walker plus a FA SP is a large expense. 1 I can see happening, but not both with Cain's signing. Really just have to see what the next move is on a SP or a 2b?

Wrote this in another thread but I'd assume Cain leads off with Yelich 2 Braun 3 Shaw 4 as you'd rather have a LHB at the plate with a runner at 1st over a RHB with a runner on 1st. Cain also steals more bases than Yelich making Hit and runs for a good lefty hitter to find that massive hole. After Shaw, I'm not sure until the full roster is determined. If you kept Santan he bats 3 Braun to 5 logically.

Yes they need 1 more Starter, but not 2. If they don't trade Santana for a SP, you have Burnes or Woodruff to go with Thames/Aguilar in a deal to acquire a SP. I do not however think they need 2 SPs to start this year. As to the Bullpen concerns, Hader solves 80% of those concerns to me. Hader/Kneble duo is as good as you can ask for. If they are shutting down the 8th/9th innings, Playing guys like Williams, Suter, Barnes, and Jeffress is average enough. It's funny to just read everyone wanting More, More, More like unless all 25 aren't ASs we need to find another.

I wasn't comparing Duffy to Salazar so that's a wasted exercise on your part. I was simply saying there's nothing wrong with Duffy's contract. Obviously, anyone with half a brain would prefer the similar production for cheaper. I believe a contract that is being paid what you'd expect to pay the player in FA shouldn't be targeted for trade when it's not going to be a contract dump type of trade. And being a Small Market makes it worse on an unproven full season guy to give up any value to acquire him. Santana=a lot of value. We give up Freddy Peralta straight up for him, I'd be okay on Duffy. Any higher of value is not worth it. Peralta is pushing that envelope.

I believe we're around $85 Million. Memory mistake. I had figured 100million previously with the Marlins trade including Castro or Prado. Yelich would move us to about 76 and 16mil AAV would hint us to be at 92mil with Cain's addition.

I think the notion last night of Brewers looking to move Santana and Phillips for a SP is not a knock on Phillips, but that his value is more than Broxton's who has upside to gain more value. Phillips may not gain a whole more value than where he stands. If he does it's because he's exceeding the expectations that we and Milw even have for him. It's a great point on Santana's value not losing in this trade with 2 options removed for the other teams. Grichuk was moved. On the other side though is that if you are moving him to an AL team for SP the options are low. Including Phillips makes one of the best options so confusing as Tampa needs 0 OF much less 2 in an Archer trade imo at the moment. HH did make mention of Santana to an AL team and a "hot" move with another player....which rather than being a seperate 2 trades, what if that meant a 3 team move? Go on a Tampa sends Archer to Milw Cleveland sends McKenzie to Tampa Milw send Santana to Cleveland Milw sends Phillips and Thames to Tampa. Cleveland sends Will Benson to Milw.

Absolutely nothing. Contract peaks at $15.5 Million in his final year and, in 2017, he was a >3 win pitcher in less than 150 innings. Fangraphs had him at a $27 Million value in 2017 fwiw. If we got Duffy and Merrifield for Santana, we'd win in a major way. That's 6.5 fWAR of production out of positions we need. I see very little shot that happens. Okay He is paid 15mil avg for the next 4 years. He's never started more than 26 games in a season. Has a Career Fip of 3.98 and will be 29years old. Santana is Pre-Arb and 3 years of Arb equal 4 years of control. Younger with a higher ceiling. Salazar has a Career 3.56 Fip having pitched 30games in a season is paid 5mil this season with 2 years of Arb remaining for age 29 and 30 seasons. If we just moved payroll to 100mil Duffy moves it to 115mil (a little under) I think Duffy is an identical clone to a Lohse/Garza someone who will not pitch well in a couple years(if you even consider him pitching well now) Honestly, if Duffy had been a FA right now what are you giving him for a contract? MLBTR gives Cobb a clearly better SP a 4-70mil projection. The Cubs offered 3-42mil supposedly. That is what is wrong with Duffy's contract-it's market value if not over. Santana's is clearly not at market value.

That is under 20% which is terrific. Not the near 30% of Domingo. I'd guess that 30% would typically be a .230-.245 type of expectation. 25% .250-270 and 20% a .275-.300 Santana's 30HRs and .363BABIP bumped his avg to .278 FWIW Braun's Career K rate is 18.3% with a .302 BA. Mike Trout is at 21.5% K rate in his career. Getting to 20% K rate or lower is where you want your batters at. Brinson's MiLB number is 25.5% (lower than expected) The under 20% Yelich is at is one of the reasons I like him so much. Put in perspective: Altuve was 12.7% leading baseball in BA at .346 Charlie Blackmon #2 was 18.6% at .331.

That looks like 6 doubles being HRs and 1 out being a HR. 7 more HRs edit: Actually 2 outs being HR or 8 more HRs

I'm surprised to see the Stanton actually batted 2nd as often as he did. Yelich stayed at their #3 for the most part. So Yelich actually batted ahead a 37HR Ozuna and Stanton for 35 games. 3 times on base for Stanton's HRs 13 of Ozuna's 37HRs. Get on Base let the HR hitters drive you in. That will be likely depressed with Braun or Cain most likely batting behind him? So he can swing some more for power, over a Contact/OB approach. His natural talent adding over 10HRs to his normal output....Maybe more if he's a Leadoff hitter. The everyday lineup must go Cain/Yelich/Braun/Shaw now right? If you did the l/r split with Yelich/Cain/Shaw/Braun I'm not sure Braun deserves the cleanup after Shaw's better splits with men on and expecially RISP to Braun's last season. Though, in the other regard, wouldn't having your better hitters 123 over 124? No, you do Cain with Yelich for Hit/run situations for a Leadoff hitter who should steal bases more often than Yelich. Braun remains the #3 hitter....I just talked this out to myself writing this so there you have it.