brewcrewdue80

Kris Bryant just settled at 10.85mil in his 1st year of Arb. What Villar did in 16, 23mil to buy out his team control was under selling his '16. He'd probably been near 4mil with a similar season and more if it were better. Better would have set up his next Arb salaries to be higher rates. 2.55 mil isnt that much from what you'd assume that year's salary was going to be. Another bad year he'll be about 3-3.75 mil next year. A '16 season year he's approaching 8mil. So 6million on the bad side. And with Sogard making 2mil, Villar knows a 2-3million worst case scenario happens for a good 4-5years, as speed gets play. Yeah the above 23million sets him up for life, but he may have looked at as 6-10million sets him up for life regardless. Had he had a '16 season in '17 and the Brewers gave him a 40mil extension and he took it, he's getting a far better return than the loss he takes making 3 million-ish a season for 6years.

[http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4153&position=Purl] Figured Arrieta would be too pricey to be signed by Milw realistically but since we're among the "teams interested" I'll chime in against it and Fangraphs link above will show why. Arrieta's 2 best seasons according to FG came with a 50-ish pct FB and a 27 pct Cutter usage. Last two seasons he's been above 60pct FB and under 15pct Cutter. A cutter that went from elite ranking to being a bad pitch to even throw this season. Want to know what else FG shows? Velocity drops over 1MPH across the board in 17 vs 16 which was less than those 2 Elite years. Hmm, a year where velocity reading was up by most, his dropped A Lot! 15 HRs given up in the 2 elite seasons combined, over 20 in 17 alone. I mean this is Yovani Gallardo drop territory. I'd suspect Arrieta will be top 10 all time worst FA signings unless somebody fixes his confidence in that Cutter and adds velocity. that 15 season? He had a huge GB pct that is an anomally to his career. I give it 0 chance he'll ever have one 6FWar season or better the rest of his career. Top 10 worst FA signing prediction, it can't be any clearer behind those numbers.

The Yankees moved him because of money and Torres and the Cubs moved him because of Addison Russell. His space out moments on the field were well documented in Chicago but he just spent two years in New York and I never heard a word about them. If they happened in New York they would have been a huge deal. Also, never heard anything about him being a clubhouse cancer. But the Cubs chose Javier Baez over Castro to play 2b. As to the Yankees, they were in bad shaped heading in to '16 at 2b and a failed 1st year by Didi Gregarious post Jeter at SS. Castro at least gave them an option had Didi fallen flat to his potential and just been a AAAA player. Whatever MLB has done to the baseball certainly saved Didi as he's 20 and 25HRs the last two seasons when never hitting over 9 at any season prior, minors or majors. Edit add: I will say this, based on the returns Castro has brought, He's probably worth an Aaron Wilkerson...or Yovani Gallardo in trade. That's it, Eric Sogard to clear up the 2b logjam.

No. There's something not right about him. Clubhouse cancer. The Cubs moved him as a winning team. The Yankees now moved him as a winning team. Didnt want to continue winning with him in their clubhouse. If you cant roll with Villar/Sogard/Perez and have to give someone else a shot, Walker is the winning choice. Traded to the Mets as a rental/resigned. Brewers now on that same spot having interest. At some point these FAs will come down on their requests, or be like? Who was it a few years back? Signed midway in to season for less money.

Good. Don't need to see the posts asking for him to be in the rotation or bullpen, was gas can garbage. Any personnel or scouts involved in the Bradley/Jungmann picks should hopefully be banned from anything Milwaukee Brewers.

Please, stop the Mejia inclusion for trades. He is more valuable than Brinson. Can you try this and realistically see a GM parting with their #1 prospect ranked as highly as Brinson/Mejia are? Santans plus Aguilar for Salazar and Brinson. I mean if you're the other side and Stearns made this trade for Santan and Aguilar? Are you glad he used the team's #1 prospect for this? Mejia was in the midsts of his epic hitting streak when the Lucroy trade didnt happen. At that point Mejia's value jumped and with being a hitting Catcher he's an off limits prospect...aside the that Sale/Kershaw type of Ace acquisition. I'd love to see Santana move to #3 in batting order and bat every bit like last year and be graced as a 4War value player vs the under 2 hes saddled at for now. Hes going to be just 25, his prime years ahead of him.

The hardest thing for me is what are the Badgers supposed to do? They go12-1 losing to Ohio State when beginning the season what 10/11th ranked? Heck beat a team that was in the Playoffs had they won vs Clemson at their home field for a bowl game! And WI drops a spot in the rankings. Clemson/Oklahoma lost in playoffs first round they should have fallen below OSU, UCF, and WI. Just blows my mind that Auburn finishes 10th at 8-4. How that school jumps up for a big win, and doesnt fall down in rankings and a team like WI just vibrates from 7-10 all season while winning to finally get top 5 leading in to the cconference championship that resulted in being a 1 possession result.

I mean, I don't read other team's forums, there's 29 other teams to search and find a forum to read to begin with, then you have to read them and find a Brewer's trade proposal. Already invest so much time just going through this forum every day.

I had to check to make sure the original post wasn't from the end of 2016 when all 4 of these prospects werent near the value they are today. What in the world is this offer? Ever see the movie Tropical Thunder? Robert Downey Jr's character tell's Ben Stiller's character, "You went full ******. Never go full ******" Sums up my thoughts reading this trade idea. I'd think this was made up by a Tigers fan, were you hacked?

This isn't a 1st round pick loss anymore. Its #73 or 74 however it turns out when the QO guys are signed. Said this elsewhere, BRef has the avg ML player as being worth under 3War in his career from that draft selection. And only 37% even make it to the ML. I'd like the move if we got a legit TOR pitcher who is actually not Archer or Duffy. Someone Stearns has secretly worked a deal for. That Robbie Ray idea would be one.

This is a HUGE overpay and a total win now move. Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz is more than I am willing to pay to get Duffy and I have zero interest in Woodruff for Merrifield especially with Villar/Sogard on the roster and Walker still available. Brinson and Woodruff I'd be considering an overpay, adding all those others? Id expect the Royals to pay 10million a year for what's left on Duffy's contract(not cheap) Thats a worse trade than a proposal I believe for Archer when stated Sale didnt bring back this kind of haul.

Arcia might turn into a good leadoff hitter at some point, but I've never understood the clamour during the season and offseason from some to have him leadoff. .324 OBP and 14(/21) SB doesn't exactly scream ideal leadoff hitter to me. Nor does the 89 OPS+. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, something like 120+ more than the #8 hitter over the course of the season. It should be one of your best hitters leading off. If not that, then OBP should be the priority above all else; it's the only time during a game where you know for sure the batting order in an innning, and know for sure who's leading off. Make the most of that by having him get on base. Anyway, I agree that Villar/Sogard will get the first crack at it. 2016 Villar and 2017 Sogard are both good leadoff options, but the other iterations of them aren't so let's see which one we get. Gotta question the 14/21 SB rate being the #8 hitter ahead of the pitcher. How many may have been result of bunt/run failure? Another thing is he posted the 89+ in his 22year old season. A line of .277/.324 with an 18% K rate ahead of that pitcher. In some thoughts he's a first pitch swinger with some modest pop. The extra PAs would at last season's rate be 20HRs. Jumping on a pitcher in the 1st inning before warmed up could be good for a contact hitter. There's also the chance he betters by say 5-8 percent with growth and the reward of having a #2 hitter behind him vs. a pitcher. That's a .290-.299/.340-.349/.427-440 slash line. I've suggested putting Braun as lead off passing the #3 torch to Santana's bat. Shaw to #4. Then you find your #2 hitter (Thames?/Villar?/Phillips?) playing out that Lefty split CC employed often last season while having a more consistent #1 OBP hitter atop the order. Braun's splits were down on higher leverage/men on base than in the past. May be better giving him an open basepaths and let him hit freely more to opposite field/contact hitting vs power stroke pulling. Just my thought. Braun was really bad with 2 men or more on base. 6 for 52 last season.

Sale is a true Ace. Archer isn't even close in Sale's Value even with an extra year of team control. Archer's BWar last 5 seasons is a total of 12. 12! Sale had 24.7 BWAR And I know others respect Fangraphs more in rankings. Sale 29FWAR Archer 17.5. For 3million a year savings and 1 less year of team control. I think the baseball world is going to open up on the Brewers prospects pre-season rankings and the values some are putting our guys at are going to look foolish when these guys are in the top 50 and not barely in the top 100. Brinson is in the top 15 on MLB.com while posting his exceptional numbers when healthy. Burnes is off and running proving doubters wrong as to being a SP and is full on legit with his talent. It took him 16 Starts to reach AA where 16 starts there resulted in a 2.1ERA. He should be top 50 if not top 35 in no time continuing his success. Harrison went from a 32% K rate, 6HR 8SB season to 27% K rate and 21HR 27SB while possessing a 70-80 grade OF arm will be 22 entering AA most likely. He's going to be close to top 60 rankings based on where he's fitting in the Brewers team rankings. Could care less on the gotta give up talent to acquire talent. These 3 and I should include Hiura to this point should come with an immediate hanging up of the phone if asked for in a trade for Archer(not an Ace) These are a name you include in a Sale trade and even then it would only be 1 of them. Brinson, Ortiz, Peralta, and filler would match what Boston gave up.

The concern on the draft pick? It's not like the Lohse debacle and #17. It's now the 3rd pick and stated elsewhere, that's going to fall around the 73rd pick after the 2nd round. Historically that is pick doesn't produce anyone worthwhile and if so to the tune of a 2-3WAR Career. I'd expect Cobb will accomplish that career on average yearly with 170+IP in a season. I mean what is that going to be slot value in the draft? 700k? (looked it up was 791k last season) I do like someone's mention on Cobb being more an unknown to the NL over picking up Lynn who's known well in the Central. We've gotten that 4/60mil contract previously if it's 4/68mil, I'd say that doable. Pay up say 20 and 19mil the first two years, and he's a 15 and 14mil cost those final two years which wouldn't hit the payroll as hard when our guys hit arb.

Also on Corbin, he can likely see starts in'18 in September. If Im trading to a rebuild team its Ortiz whos more than a year away from ML starts. But still, just sign Cobb or Lynn and you can save these prospects. I recall the article previously and it takes Archer's 3 years stats. Convenient to have his best year and not just his previous 2 where HRs becomes a problem for him. Said it roughly before hes a K machine which gets noticed like HRs in batters. Too much value being given to his K rate and not the other HR or hard hit ball rates.

What's not to like is that Cobb or Lynn projection cost is what Duffy is going to make as 4/~60mil and both those two have better career numbers than Duffy. Merrifield can't be counted on to Improve 2b's production over Villar/Sogard. So then you're making the trade for Herrera at this cost? Not buying it. Edit add against Merrifield. Remember He got to throw to Hosmer at 1b who's Career Range Factor is 8.95. Villar and the Brewers inf d had 8.21 from Thames and under 7 from Aguilar. I'd expect Merrifield's D will be negatively impacted with whomever takes the Royals 1b opening.

I believe both would. Yes both would, the 3rd highest selection and 4th if both were signed. On this season it's be worth it as Milwaukee has their Competitive Balance pick in Round 2b. If it were the other way around it would be the 2nd round selection. Difference of #73 instead of that 60. Roughly, I think the Comp picks might adjust up or down some we will see. BRef history of the 60 pick is a 37% Major Leaguer chance and avg 6.5WAR in their career. Travis Wood though in 2005 is last positive WAR pick at that selection. For #73 it is also 37% but only a 2.4WAR contribution in career. Bryan Shaw in 2008 was last positive WAR at this selection. So by the numbers to sign guys like Lynn or Cobb, aside from money cost, you are getting far more production than what this pick historically produces. And of course should Lynn/Cobb produce to what they've historically produced. I'm still high on Lynn and now looking at Cobb's numbers he's in the same line of production, just not as much Games Started but career ERA/Fip in line with Lynn's. I'd guess that with Wade Davis' signing setting the market on the elite RPs, it also probably set the price range on Cobb/Lynn to probably approach 70-84mil over 4years and not 50-60mil.

Harrison #6 of in the system in 2017's MLB rankings. Yeah keep telling yourself the Brewers and all of Prospect rankings rate Grisham, Phillips, Lutz, and Ray ahead of him at this moment. Same can be said on Burnes. The only real accurate trade target comes in Diaz since Hiura makes an equal commodity who likely rises faster. Love the notation Duffy would fit the Brewers search on a Top of Rotation Pitcher, because Never throwing over 180IP or a career 4.8ERA in Sept/Oct makes Duffy a confident TOR Pitcher. Harrison is too valuable, go ahead and take Grisham instead of Harrison, and Ortiz instead of Burnes and now the deal makes sense. Throw in a guy like Diplan who's year last season moved him further down the Brewers pipeline of Pitchers, but after Ortiz, hey he's the Royal #4 prospect and 2nd best pitcher prospect.

The old buy when its low in the week or so has finally been paying. An IPO I traded last year successfully was way down. I bought some here and there as it continued down. I was down some 30% in it, but my averafe was lower due to a buy a month earlier. Its climbed back to about half it's IPO and suddenly Im up 50% in my holdings. Merry Christmas me. A lil story as I keep an interest in stock prices on shares Ive sold out on. My dad told me he did this a lot with Kohls for a long time. On the other end of this spectrum, I've got stock at one was maybe $16 andIve gobbled up extra shares every 20-30% its fallen. Its down to $4 for whatever reason turning a profit when it was 16 and not for the yeat befor that. Im confident it will grow and will probably get some more shares as at some point rivals will step in and buyout the company with its value. Schneider is still "trucking" along strong. Wish Id bought more at its ipo.Its had increases on a dividend with it stock rising, so im hanging on vs selling. I may more than double my money by this point next year.

A midseason rookie coming off injury and you're condemning him a #4 on that sample size? He has a season high of 158IP, which I'd venture can be turned in to 183-188IP before the shut-down. Thats pretty close to a full season and if he reached that, he's had a successful '18. Davies lead the team at 191IP in 33 starts. You have to take the expectation that this isn't a playoff team still- and when you're about to shut Woodruff down guys like Ortiz, Burnes or Ponce can get some September starts. Though Ortiz is only maxed at 94IP in his minor career so he should be out by then...which makes one wonder on if making a trade he'd have to be the one offered the most due to his 2 seasons away from really implementing in to the Rotation full time.

No, Id put Nelson as a New #2 not an Ace. I go by performance/perception on the mound. If you would name off a dozen guys as Aces how many would you put money on against in 1 game? Nelson isnt in that category and while he may have been getting closer to consideration, his Shoulder injury reduces that feeling for quite some time. There are names of Aces in past who didnt carry that title last season or hold an Ace profile very long. Johnny Cueto, Grienke, and Price as examples. Verlander was once and flashed that skill again in moments. I'd take an Ace as someone who consistently achieves Cy Young votes. How many did Nelson get this year? Pitchers have great single seasons. Take the Cubs rebuild with Garza and Hammel. Samardzija even. Perfectly landed at trade away season values And brougjt back a number of either current (Russell) or pieces traded away recently from those deals.

Im only repearing something I said previously but Lance Lynn. He performs to 3War value. Pitches healthy for full seasons. 200IP from him is better than the 4/5s of previous seasons. He wasnt pegged for more than 72mil and if so thats a safe bargain for 4 solid years of his production. Hes not like the Garza or Suppan signings or even Lohse as his production and health have been consistently better than those 3 (Suppan by A LOT) At this point, Chacin is your best bet to give 180IP next season. Lynn would give you that 185-200Expectation

That's a ton. Might be a bit too much from Brewer perspective. Substitute Nottingham for Dubon and include Villar and Guerra. Might be a ton from the Brewer perspective but it would not be enough from the Marlins perspective. On top of that the Marlins would be looking for a MLB ready catching prospect (to back fill JT) & the Brewer package lacks that. While the Crew could add 1 of their 'guys' going back, none would match Mejia/ Carson Kelly/ Chance Sisco/ Jorge Alfaro.. On another note - if any of us were the GM of Marlins & looking to facilitate a rebuild - we would not put our best remaining assets together in 1 big package deal. We would deal guys separately to get greatest return. We would look to increase the market for each player we are trying to deal & that could increase the cost/ return on the asset. This has interesting trade idea. You say a Catcher-thus why Pina is in that proposal. Yelich would end up at CF. Id hope his defense can fill the in betweens Santana/Brauns. A lot of ground to cover. Marlins get a CF/Corner OF combo in Phillips&Brinson. Pina at Catcher. A young SP and the middle infield prospect to replace at 2b/SS. It's a helluva matchup thats too kind to the Marlins. Both teams improve. Think this lineup- Yelich Braun Santana Shaw Realmuto 1b Castro Arcia Id even consider Braun to leadoff with Arcia on his days off. Yelich at 2. Youre looking at tougher outs from all 8 than last year. Broxton as 4th OF is simple to place at Arcia'$ 8. And Id move everyone up a spot when Perez is in lineup. Castro/Villar good 7s. The Prospect impact is maybe hurt in Dubon's Super Utility profile, but for OF/SP/2b factors youre good to go on that loss.

A mid 3 ERA start as a #3? A mid 3 ERA starter is an ace. The way people still treat pitchers like this is 1986 is amazing. So then An Ace is waiting for us for under 70mil in Lance Lynn? And we want garbage Duffy?

Woodruff is my favorite Brewers Pitching prospect since Yovani. I didnt really know on Peralta when he emerged, and in Nelson I liked but believed he'd be too wild to reach a good #3. Certainly other teams hold Woodruff in high regard in a trade. He just happens to get lost on value with higher ceiling options of Brinson/Hader/Ortiz. Woodruff is going to be an innings eating mid 3ERA #3 starter. The type like Lance Lynn results. Thats a lot of 3WAR value seasons. It's for that reason I didn't and dont want to see him actually traded.