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brewcrewdue80

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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80

  1. Ahh I see, I forgot all baseball officials follow Baseball America like sheep. Sorry, in comment section someone asked no Ray, and BA replied thats in opinion of many scouts. I'd guess a few of these scouts get asked for other sites like MLB and Ray takes a dip there as well. I think you may have misunderstood every David Stearns’ quote/interview/memoir over the last 18 months… And yet here are the rumors we're looking at SP to help. Show me in last 2weeks Stearns/MA saying nothing will be done on the buying side. Were sellers. Maybe we can get by with Ray still at his value 1year ago. The White Sox dont read BA's rankings. If thats the case, lets get them to take Phillips, Lopez, Clark, Nottingham. For Q. Former top 100s. Add Ray as headliner.
  2. I see. Well, in Eaton they've gotten pretty close to the same numbers out of Michael Taylor, who was a top 50 Prospect. It'd be like us losing Broxton or Santana and playing Brinson and saying whomever we lost was a major contributor. In Turner's case, He's only missed 25games and Taylor may be better in that leadoff spot over him considering the OPS+ difference. Considering that, only Turner's SS defense is missed by Washington not his Leading off bat.
  3. With Ray no longer considered a top 100 prospect by BA, he becomes a throw-in on trading for Quintana. Brinson, Ortiz, and Ray with a 4th is my guess as Hader is helping the team in the bullpen, and Woodruff is ready to help in the rotation. These 3 aren't helping this year's team so they are expendable.
  4. Corey Ray is no longer in Baseball America's top 101 prospects. Oops, too late to use him as a headliner. btw, only 4 Brewers were in that top 101: Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Ortiz. I find it odd they reduced Hader with his success in the bullpen. AJ Puk #27....Matt Manning #79
  5. Time to Stop Worrying. I dropped Villar from my fantasy team July 5th. Someone will pick him up and crush mt team the rest of the season all because of Villar. In other news I picked up Ian Happ for Villar and I think hes hitless since.
  6. Trea Turner broke his hand and Adam Eaton is out for the year. That's the #1 and #2 hitters in the Nationals lineup. Dodgers have had Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Ryu, Kazmir, Andre Ethier, and Rich Hill all hit the DL. No way is Trea Turner or Eaton the Nationals 1/2 hitters. Theres this guy named Daniel Murphy as well as Bryce Harper.. Anthony Rendon&Ryan Zimmerman better hitters. As to Dodgers, these guys arent seriously hurt, playing a carousel of an 8/9man rotation. Bellinger makes Gonzo DL. Joc Pederson has been a bust. The majority of the DLs for LA improved their team.
  7. Today's thumping of the Cubs just awesome. I understand the talent comparison and acknowledging Dodgers&Nationals better than Brewers. Both Teams have had a huge addition in the lineups in Ryan Zimmerman and Cody Bellinger. They have frontline pitching too. But injuries happen. Something i dont believe those two teams have had to deal with...at least to the stars of both teams. Here we are and the team has survived multiple DLs to hitters and pitchers. Or if not DL, multiple stretches of 4-6games missed in short time. In no way do I see the Brewers beating out WA or LA in the standings, but in a playoff series, if they are down a significant player or three, you have a better chance to beat them. Think Ben Sheets 08. Just gotta get in to the playoffs and see how rosters are then.
  8. Yes I am concerned Ray has bust potential, but I'm arguing that what surrounds him in tools is something that is beaten by all these other great OF prospects the Brewers have amassed. You can throw the tops of the classes sure, but Ray was a 5th pick out of College. He's at 30%+ in K rate still in A+ ball. I don't believe that leads to .340 OB unless the bb rate sticks, but again, he's at A+level, not ML pitching who paint the corners over wild pitching. Oh and that painting the corners gets better as he climbs the ladder so 30%+ K rate may worsen. Clark may turn out, looks more so than Ray, I wasn't a fan of his swing when I watched a lot of vids pre 2015 draft. I just believe there were better players to pick from vs Clark. To this point no one has reached the Majors picked below Clark. I said when you hit on a SP pick you get back a rather large haul if you trade him. Vs., trading 1,2,3 and/4 of these talented prospects to get that 1 SP, yes guys like Happ who are with just 1.4 years of control remaining and over 30. The first 4 picks after Ray were SPs, and Jason Groome came shortly after. Bickford as you said was picked directly after Clark. We could have had the SPs in our system rather than trade for them. And now need to trade for. Our 1st round picks have been brutal since Braun was drafted. If you're going to suck, suck picking the need of your Franchise for decades vs. the position players.
  9. This is the guy I'm targeting if I were to seek a veteran arm who is streaky good. I get with the poster above that Toronto is losing some arms, but Happ has 13mil that for Toronto could open to a FA signing. I'd think it'd cost just 2 prospects for him and they don't have to come from the top but around 5-12 would be strong enough or one top ten and 2 within top 30. They could use some OF help and Ryan Cordell would be a fun target by the Blue Jays, as he'd get at bats vs. Boston. Maybe you could see how much they'd like Villar as their SS/2b situation is filled with oft injured guys. Catcher they certainly could use a backup. I think Happ would come with a decent pricetag, but not one that hurts the top of the rankings.
  10. And Arcia is beating Anderson's numbers. 8HRs already, lower K rate, and better BB rate and still younger with this fact. I again suggest that an early extension is giving up years of a possible extension. Some above say 7years. Great he's 29/30. I'd rather have him til he's 32-34 if the numbers add up in another year. He'll still be receiving money early in his career. I really don't get the sign an extension through the team controlled years and then have options 1 or 2 years beyond. You're not gaining much if he's a young player worth extending. If he's bad you're buying him out past normal team control. If he's good, the likelihood of him signing another extension vs testing FA is a lot less now that he's paid. Then you get the decision to trade him that year after team control or hang on to and go to FA after. I just feel an Extension should be 3years or longer past original team control.
  11. You really hate Corey Ray don't you. Hated Clark too and this season his stats back me up vs rookie. Hernan Perez brings a better OF potential than Ray did/does Can't draft enough Pitching and winners were there for the taking. Let's say 50% of 1st round position do anything in ML. And 40% of Pitchers do anything in ML. But at the deadline it costs not only the 50% that does project to do anything in the ML but 2 more pieces of better than 50% to make the ML. It is annoying that we keep taking OFs in 1st round, and not the top rated ones at that over any SP atop the draft board with top 20 picks. Hitting on one of those SPs helps more than the position player.
  12. Would probably be the teams FA signing this offseason. Or Pitts next Ace FA acquire the next 2seasons. But a Suppan/Lohse/Garza if we signed
  13. While I think the first piece price is right, the inclusion of Monte Harrison who I think is going to be in the top 100 by season's end is too steep a price. And Cordell is a high floor get so much upside vs what upside and large pricetag that is Shark. Harrison and Gatewood need to be off limits. Demi O would be tradeable. I think San Fran would want another Pitcher to be included. I just don't think with his salary he's worth more than 1 legit prospect and 2 B potential prospects That's why I proposed Braun because the salary offsets and you can add one SP (Ortiz/Diplan/Peralta) and call it a day. If Braun vetoes then it is destiny not to make a trade
  14. On Shaw, it looked like he was hit on outside/bottom of his palm. That spot that goes numb when it strikes something wrong. Cant be good for next few days. May be a DL through the AS break. On Arcia's scored run in a rundown, catcher while say 25-30feet from home plate immediately throws back to whos up the third base line. Arcia turns back to home plate where defenders hadnt established themselves and with say 38feet to score, made it. Catcher error. All guy had to do was walk up third base another 10feet or more to where Arcia had more ground to run to score vs getting back to 3rd. And so someone was standing at home vs running to the plate. Id think thats a 98% of time an out with an error being the only time he scores. Great Win. Early runs likely helped Suters confidence. Hope Shaws injury not bad.
  15. Didnt Brinson bat leadoff his 1st start? Im all for a Sogard/Arcia top of the order set up now. Villar at leadoff just not doing it. Swap him to 8th. His bat needs the punishment.
  16. In what world does one think Matt Moore will be a better pitcher than what he is since TJ? At best maybe he becomes a #3 SP or at worst, you buy out his option year after the season because he's as bad as Wily Peralta. On the Shark, 20mil per basically the next 3 years. That's pretty steep for what will be age 33,34, and 35 seasons. It's hard to understand his numbers how he's so hit or miss. 4 games this year of 6ERs to 8ERs You toss those 4 games he still has an ERA of about 3.2. Obviously more respectable but surprising it isn't less. With his payroll, what would SF even ask in return? This isn't like other years when he was making under 10mil pre trade. Just see this as a half and half salary dump with one of the better SPs to trade for. Maybe we give a straight swap for Braun and call it a day? Though I see us losing in that deal, but OF is certainly something we can throw bodies at with Braun gone.
  17. No, just sign him in FA. If he's traded there can't be a QO tag on him. Texas is suggesting they won't QO him, but they QO'd Gallardo so I'd not say never. Let's see Lucroy bat .300 from here on out and they still think that way.
  18. The big idea on those 2 combos is to get Jose Q, who has multiple years in a very affordable contract left. Who has 4 straight years of 200IP and under 3.51 ERA while pitching in the AL. Move him to the NL and getting 2-3 PAs of a pitcher vs a DH will definitely help in his stat maintaining. He's not old and his contract if options picked up ends at age 31. To some or most he's an Ace. Something far better than Ortiz or Woodruff's ceilings called for. He fits the most likely idea if you were to trade for a SP and give up guys like Brinson or Ray with the SPs, at least he comes with 3 more seasons of team control and doesn't cost 20+mil in a year for stats quality pitchers are paid. He's going to garner some team's 2 of their 3 top prospects, maybe top 2 if the third isn't a top 75 prospect. When it comes to Sonny Gray he had 2 and 1/3 seasons of production and now 1 year's worth of starts mediocre. You can control him another 3 years as well, but which pitcher are you getting? 2nd, how expensive will he be if he's already at 3.575mil heading in to Arb years? You have too big of question marks on Gray that only targeting Q makes sense. Because in Q's final team option year he comes to an 11.5mil cost. Gray could be getting 16+mil at that time or under 11mil but only because he was a flameout and you ruined your top prospects years of team control while getting him. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs gave up their top two prospects and filler for Q. That's #8 and 63 currently. Lackey and Arrieta are FAs after the season. They don't really have SPs in the pipeline to join them next season, it'd be in Free Agency which will be far more expensive than Quintana's 11.5mil highest paid year. That is the type of competition you gotta beat in a trade offer. Yankees too who have even bigger prospects and firepower to make a trade. I'd personally give the offer I'm willing to part with and if it happens great, if not I don't force the issue. We've got maybe 10 who could be top 100 prospects at the end of the season though maybe we lose 3 on qualify. We are still in a great position for the future Edit add: Matt Moore would be worth Michael Reed, he's a terrible SP to get. I'm sure Suter could produce to his numbers and definitely Woodruff/Lopez.
  19. The problem with the 1m, 1m just doesn't excite to sign an extension, He'd be getting maybe 400k and 300k more those two years than likely standard pay. On the Brewers' perspective his salary increases affects the payroll down the road. You take a Starlin Castro approach where he immediately got 5mil and his payroll hit never exceeds 12mil in what was an 8/60.5mil contract. Maybe in that estimate you would have like 8 and 9.5mil before the 15mil option year saving a little hit towards the end of the contract. Yeah .416 is unsustainable, but with his learning curve, .236 isn't something he should revert to. Maybe he settles in around .330 or say near the ML average. So below .660 OPS isn't really in his future. I think where we're getting to is understanding he should be above .700 OPS through a full season. Ithink he was at 1.1WAR prior to yesterday's game pushing him to 1.4WAR today and now his game today, I'll be interested in seeing how much he gains tomorrow on BRef. You're looking at a modest 3WAR easily out of him with elite defense. He pushes his stats up a little like this stretch, you gotta put6-7 in play but around 5WAR. His K pct is lower so maintaining a better than .270 BA is well within reason and with BABIP he's likely going to put together some .300+seasons. Maybe sorta like Jean Segura who's season was worth 5.6WAR last year at .319 with 20HRs something that may not be out of the realm for Arcia now that he's reached 8 at mid-season. Only thing is Arcia is a better defender so yeah saying 7WAR is in play is not jumping the gun.
  20. Ray is a bust in the HR department. If he's going to be a 15HR max guy with a lower OB and struggles to .800 OPS because of both those factors, yeah trade him away. Demi O, Harrison, Phillips, Cordell are all guys who can exceed that output. Draft day the ceiling projection was 30-30 with Ray, but his numbers in the minors for a "top" college hitting pick are 9HRs 28 SBs in 120games with a.318OB. This was the #5 pick last year. He should be doing better than he is somewhere or he isn't better than what the Brewers' organization already has a number of. That's it with him, a safe high floor pick, but he's not getting you 5+ WAR in a given season with .275/.315/.380 numbers. Broxton with his numbers of 13/14 and defense hasn't even earned 1BWAR. Sure his avg is lower but his slg is far higher than Ray's likely ever will be. Trading Ray now may for something that helps this team in a different way is likely better value than he would give his on his own. But I expect the White Sox to understand this and in no way want to headline a deal for Quintana with Ray. But Toronto with my suggestion towards JA Happ I think would work nicely.
  21. Isn't Erceg younger? The talk to Quintana wont be much talk putting Ray/Derby as a total offer. To this point Will Smith deal is better than that offer for Jose Q. You gotta have a legit SP prospect in a Q trade offer so Hader/Ortiz/Woodruff is 1 in a deal. Brinson/Ray/Clark/Harrison/Phillips/Cordell. 1 or 2 of them would be a part of the deal depending on the pitcher ranking given. Theres gotta be another prospect in the deal. 3-4 decent prospects with 2 top 100s. It's going to be a big haul and hurt to see these names go until Q leads tge team to postseason.
  22. I'd wait if I'm only giving him 2years extension. With his age he needs to be locked up through longer than just two years past his team control. I would say that if you went 7/56mil. You'd most likely throw a lot more early to lessen the later. Something like 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 14. Idea being 1 to keep salary lower in the upcoming years since you have a lot to work with now and all these good players will be climbing higher in price. 2, because the cheaper he is the more valuable he will be in a trade should that time arise. I'm actually thinking I'd pay more upfront to where is final year is around 11million. But let's get through the season and see where he stands in production. I'd rather wait to extend guys until it's their 1st or 2nd year of Arb. You'll have a longer idea of what you are getting, if they are a Franchise player you can add more years to an extension vs eeking out 1 or 2more past team control.
  23. Let's put Freddy Peralta on the trade watch. While he gave up 3ER in 3.2IP he had 9ks in his AA debut. That's 87ks in 60IP now for him on the season. Lots of Bullpen Pitchers with Starting potential. I think it will be hard for Stearns to give up what he'll have to give up to get a Gray or Quintana. Brewers won't be the only team making high offers to trade for them. The Yankees being one of them on Quintana. I agree on Gray, I wouldn't put a deal together for him. I think we seen the best out of him and it's downhill from there. A lot like Jordan Zimmerman who had even more of a track record than Gray does. We do have guys to trade and get a compelling player. JA Happ I'd look in to. Toronto looks like a team that could take an OF prospect in their system near ML ready. Cordell or Phillips. You could probably part with Diplan or Peralta and a lotto type. If he were healthy, Matt Shoemaker also an add on that I wouldn't think would hurt the minors but help the team overall. These two are AL pitchers who in the NL you'd expect some better stats. Happ has Post season experience 13mil for 2018. You could keep him or trade him in offseason. Just like Garza. Maybe keep him and trade Garza in the offseason.
  24. Let's remember the stats of Nelson and Peralta first time through the order and 2nd, 3rd etc. Hader's not seen a batter twice yet. Agreed his stuff is electric, but keeping him in the bullpen to this point. I still believe what will happen is he's sent down during the AS break and worked to be a SP again. He'll have multiple innings of experience now with getting ML outs. Gets stretched out as the Deadline comes and goes, with a pitcher or two sent away? and returned as a SP for the stretch. Unfortunately the injuries to Anderson and Guerra doesn't work in the Brewers favor when it comes to trading them.(yes Guerra healthy now but 42ip this year and 160+ overall small sample to commit prospects after his last start) Nelson and Garza to this point as better likely of the 1 or 2. 1 thing to see when sending Hader down to get stretched out is will his numbers be improved in the 3-5 starts he gets down in AAA? He goes 3ERA and less in that time it shows his improvement from his experience up here. He'll look better to commit to the SP rotation. I hope Lopez shows some success, essentially replaces Hader's bullpen role when he is sent down in my thoughts.
  25. Oh I'm sure there was an effect. But not the whole drop Thames has had at the plate. Part of Thames decline is finding the pitches he struggles to or the way to attack him pitch to pitch. Overall tendencies. He's on the adjustment side now. Braun will help. I think Thames, Braun, Shaw, Santana is better than Thames, Santana/Perez, Shaw, ??. I think with Villar his is a performance DL before he gets activated. His struggles continue he'll be down there longer than a short stint.
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