brewcrewdue80

Well, I hope some point a decision is made to rid either Kirk N. or Scooter, because you have 2 Left Handed pinch hitter bats on a team now with Thames, Shaw, and Villar Switch to bat from the Left Handed side. And I imagine Villar being 1 or 2 in lineup. Thames 4 or 5, and Shaw 6 or 7. giving the lineup a full mix that a PH comes to the plate and a Lefty Specialist comes up and immediately you sit Scooter or Kirk N. down and bat one of the Catchers or Perez wasting 2 of your 3 or 4 PH bats. I'd guess it would only work when PH for the pitcher since Villar could switch to the RH side. With less playing time again, and most likely used as PH which entails that Lefty specialist likely coming in. Scooter's terrible splits vs. Lefties probably returns. Just remember that when you prop up his value with what he does vs. RH pitchers. If he's starting he'll face those types and proceed to make value. But coming in as a Pinch Hitter, likely results in 50% of LH Specialists who are called in from the bullpen. Because if you're pinch hitting, thats about the time of the game when its cat/mouse and bullpen usage.

And very possible he's a .900+ OPS player again and a team that can't hit lefties like the Dodgers ponie up some player should for him. Fangraphs projections can lick em. Look at his numbers since beginning to get health. Numbers are trending up, not down. Offensively AND defensively. Yeah, it's possible. It's also possible he plays in 100 games and comes closer to his 2014 numbers. But their best guess is around a league average value player. You do realize, these projections take a lot of data into account. Stats, trends, injuries, age, career history, everything. They're all a piece of the pie. They are not just drawing numbers out of a hat or making biased assumptions, and they aren't ignorant to the fact that Braun had a good 2016 season. The 'trend' is not everything. It's one piece of data but that's it...there's a lot more to it. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/projections/ The 3 biggest that should be in play for a projection are that, Stats, Trends, and Career History. Only 2014 as an OF, can you say Braun wasn't a 4WAR or better player, if played in 135 games or more. Stats, trends, and career history not getting an ounce of credit. 8 of 9 seasons. I'm just going to go with every individual that is responsible for these computations, hate Braun....well dislike since hate is such a strong feeling, and when they do these projections give him the worst projection they get. Because that's what they want him with their dislike to become. Heaven forbid they post him as a 4WAR projection and then he does have that 2WAR season instead...the hate from all the people who rely on these model projections.

Mlbtr just posted Loria is open to selling the team. 1.7billion asking with a 1.3billion offer before. Completely despise this guy. What a scam Bud Selig started, and as predicted is coming to fruition. I wonder just how much money Loria has ever really spent, with Miami receiving revenue sharing, public funded stadium that Was not heralded for, but shoved down their throats. I cant believe over 1billion being discussed more than double what Forbes rated the Franchise back to this moment.

I don't see the fit and Yelich is now their best player with JF's passing. So there's no reason to trade him especially just to acquire Braun. San Fran to me doesn't have the firepower to get Braun, without Milwaukee taking a terrible contract in Cain. Taking a contract like Cain's and a 3rd team had better get involved. Like I said, the Dodgers' moves this week would have to make Braun an afterthought. The winter meetings are over, and moving all their major contracts would need to happen for me to believe they will make a move on acquiring Braun. But that's like getting Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir, and Puig all removed to then ask Milw the price for Braun without sending trash to us. I fully expect Braun's WAR to be as well or better just for the fact of Villar, Broxton, Arcia, Santana's improved bats likely to bat ahead of him. With Santana or Thames protecting behind him being hopefully a much better contact hitter for avg than Carter was. Another Offseason to fix up more health concerns and maybe 142-147 games can be had next season. He won't be sitting 5days at the Trade deadline again which was 5games missed. It's just funny all the talk of regression to age when he's improved his batting each of the last 2seasons while aging. Approaching essentially his career average this year. A bat that seen only 25 total games below .900OPS with 9 coming in the first 11games. So talking 14 of the last 124 games where that OPS dipped below .900. The signs don't point to suddenly dropping off in numbers. I'd be concerned if there were a month or 2 where he was just a .725OPS type bat, but he consistently remained a .900 OPS bat all season long. I'm sure I've said something like this before, but just rehashing because with Braun imo now 99% remaining with the team, we can look forward to having this elite bat.

I think we're at the opposite end of that 99.99% sure Braun will be traded this offseason. I think it's now become 99.9% certain he'll be on the team 2017. Say what you want, overvaluing him, or that no-trade clause. The 6 team list 5 don't possess the firepower to get Braun and then there's the Dodgers. Who has moved on with Jansen and Turner signings, money spent that will haunt them honestly. No chance they get the value returned on their spending. Clearly well over the luxury tax they were just warned about. Going Rogue in that department. I think by the end of 2017 they will have released another costly contract and the damage in such cases will exceed the Brewers 2017 Payroll total alone! Already over 45million of salary commitments to players no longer on the team. Here's at best the team that can trade for Braun after LA's removal. Seattle Mariners. Parting with Kyle Lewis and Luis Gohara plus a lower ranked put upside potential like Brayan Hernandez would do Braun being traded away justice. They could obviously use the Corner OF bat where Seth Smith and Aoki played the most for them last season. They are probably top 3 for oldest teams in MLB so they may not see age so much a problem. The Brewers should have drafted Lewis over Ray and I know headlining the deal with another OF makes an already crowded Minors system that much more. But, unlike Ray, Lewis got off to a very promising pro start showing everything you would hope he brought with his bat. Lewis to me is one of those franchise bats we're are discussing, searching for. Never thought he or Groome were going to be there to pick, and we passed on them both.

We add that type by continuing what Stearns has been doing. I hope Mark A. Just takes the money he's saving from 2016 and 2017 and locks in Stearns for another 10years. The answer is most likely in the system....or on the team already It is flat out GM of the year worthy what Stearns has done. The depth is remarkable. Imagine for a minute had 2014 turned roses already? Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara arent even top 10 prospect in the system! Theres time and youth for 1 of them to turn All Star still. Having Villar turn out so well really answers a lot to that Franchise bat. And the talents are oozing with potential. Broxton I dont even understand what to project from him but hes now an everyday CF to keep in the lineup. Diaz Ive chimed to special. He may not be Braun but comparing to other 2b hes going to give the Brewers a leg up on the League. And that is just it. The depth has above average all over aside 3b/1b. Catcher just avg is above average. The pitching has more potential #2 types than ever before. Certainly getting a Zach Davies type of season is reasonable which makes reaching the post season that much easier. Id love to find an Ace. On the bat side, youre staring at so many .750-850OPS types with speed abundant. OB pluses. Think AL last 2years. KC and Clv. They didnt have superstar bats, but a solid mix in the lineup. Milw to me through Stearns has higher bat potentials now in place than both those teams. Edit add: oh btw, we may have that Ace. Luiz Ortiz i gushed about predraft 2014. My personal favorite for that draft. The concern before acquiring him is his weight. The talent is special. Add Marcos Diplan who was #2 international rank before that sogning period. Somehow his last 2seasons of stats havent resulted in top 100 rankings for prospects. Expect that to change before end of 2017season.

Well, finally solved the Maldonado trade potential. Depth at Catcher is always good. To the Win potential? Really 65 games? I got 5grand that wont happen. Unless the season was reduced to 140games I wasnt aware of? Theres too much offensive potential and bad pitching from Nelson, Peralta, Garza to be reversed to suggest this again after last season. You now know of Villar, Broxton/Santana had great 2nd halfs, Arcia will be more experienced. Thames/Shaw/catcher unknowns but upside in all 3. The only way this team doesnt reach 70+wins again are injuries and a pitching staff that is 5ERA all around. And yet, injury concern is lessoned by the depth all over! Name a position that doesnt have 3players in depth. Ok, 1b has 2 certains. 3rd I wouldnt know, but how often do 1b get hurt?

Looking at his stats and game log last season. Apparent terrible starter. Pitched out of the bullpen the last 2months. I'll say his signing is on the bullpen side. Should he be successful enough to make the team after ST. Though even then Im concerned with HR rate. Competition for Suter/Hader? Keep them down in AAA for team control? Wow, I looked his splits and hes not even a Lefty vs. Lefty specialist type. So Im not sure what the thinking is here, accept "tank" signing. Pretty amaizing he can fetch 4.5mil. Scooter seems lightyears better. I wouldnt have given more than 1million with 2.5mil incentives.

He was paid 10million signing bonus. Reducing his 5/105 to 5/95 left owed.

I dont know if I was a comppeting team I would find Ryan Braun pretty attractive. Would I want to pay $20mil a season and give up a Top 50 prospect plus some more? What season is Braun being paid 20million? Hes never being paid 20million in any season. How can it possibly be anyone in this forum not know he's not being paid 20mil in any season? Ive and others have hashed this for over a year now. Go read my cots post in the Braun thread. To the Cardinal lottery response earlier. So the Cardinals are in a bottom 15 "small market" but pay an 8-13th team payroll yearly within the League. And this "small market" produces annually around #8 in Baseball in revenue. That math doesnt add up. Top 13, top 10. Bottom 15. Competitive seasons are what? 23 of last 25years? (This I dont know and will look up this weekend but how many below .500 seasons in 25years?) I just dont see how this continues to get overlooked by the real bottom 15 market/revenue teams. You know the types that havent had top 13 team payroll and revenue top 10 in baseball the last 10seasons?

This is Cots breakdown of Ryan Braun contract 5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 mutual option 5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 option signed extension with Milwaukee 4/21/11 $10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015) 16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout) price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest) $18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031 It is only 1 million less a year, but Braun is owed 4/76 after being paid his signing bonus before this contract began. Then of course theres that 18million deferred. Which is now 14million deferred after last season. So while its 4/76 counted in a teams listed payroll, It only costs 4/62million to an owner these next 4years.

I might be misunderstanding your point here (and I apologize if I am) but, without Marcum's performance through the first week of September, the Brewers may not have made the playoffs at all that year. Yes, I paid to see the debacle that was his start against the Cardinals in the championship series but he was a major factor in them being there in the first place. Given how Lawrie's career has progressed, I don't regret that trade at all. What do you mean by "more valuable"? Edit: I see that you mean he might have returned more after his successful (and apparently misleading) cameo in Toronto, but the Brewers got what they wanted - and if they hadn't made the trade they probably wouldn't have wanted to trade him and would have held onto him for too long and gotten even less. 2011 included a Casey Mcgeehee playing 3b to a neg 2.7WAR. Something Milw could have remedied immediately by playing Lawrie at 3b. Now who pitched besides Marcum and the difference in value is another story.

And if all 3 bomb then we're left with nothing. I'm not saying trade any of them now but you can't just wait until players become whatever it is they are going to become before you consider trading them. Imagine if we would have taken that same approach with Brett Lawrie? Your own personal opinions about whether or not Marcum was worth it at the time aside, he's turned out to be an average at best player. The last time he was traded was for scraps. Except Lawrie was more valuable that first year of Marcum with Milwaukee, which could have lead to a higher return that next offseason for someone better than Marcum. Based on the ask from Houston, Chicago would have said Arcia, Hader, and Ortiz for Quintana. My issue with trading Arcia the most is his Defense is Gold Glove future at SS. As well as being 22 for most of 2017 at 6'0 and 165lbs. There is a lot of growth potential in filling out and aging for him. Elvis Andrus who I compared Arcia to is also 6'0 but at 200lbs. Arcia adds a little muscle weight, becomes stronger with the bat while still remaining athletic in fielding, you're just selling way too low on his type of potential. It'd be different if his defense was just a little above average, or he was already near that 200lb weight for his height. His defensive ability will Always be desired by some team regardless how his bat plays. Even Brendan Ryan had years of 4WAR with a bat that was below .650OPS Andrelton Simmons can't bat .700OPS but averages 4+WAR a year. Dubon hasn't posted anything that alerts exceeding Arcia offensively. Not when defensively I don't read him being better in that area. I just see it as. 100% Arcia value today. Performs below .700 OPS next season. 90% Arcia value today. Performs above .700 OPS 110% value. Above .750 OPS 175% value. .800 or higher OPS 250% value to today. His floor barely reduces any of his current value. Meanwhile it can skyrocket with modest raise in his floor.

I wouldn't want to sign any reliever beyond 3.5 million a season or per year on 2 years. Romo likely has 5mil or more for his services. I suppose if it were 1/5mil I'd sign him with the expectation to trade him before the deadline. But again, I'm sure he's valued more for the money. I know I've chimed in this team has the makings of 81wins with the potential offense, but that is still lacking Playoff berth potential. You've got so many iffy types like Suter, Cravy, Peralta, Garza, and even Jungmann who just may have to commit to bullpen roles. Signing a RP eliminates some of the flexibility you possess in finding a starting 5 with so many that can give you starts. What if Hader's first 2 or 3 starts in AAA are shutouts or close? Or Lopez? Meanwhile, Peralta, Nelson, or Garza are off to a 6+ERA start that warrants moving from SP. In Nelson and Peralta if you option them down, their pitching woes don't improve in Colorado. And Garza of course couldn't be optioned. You'd have to commit to AA in the options or move 1 of the 3 to the bullpen which if adding a FA reliever makes that crowded. Just with how variable relievers are year to year I'd leave it to finding one off waivers and remain cheap. 1 year away to me before you concern yourself with veteran RPs and the bullpen. You may have the types you seek in your system, go find out.

Just need to point out. And the Cardinals are receivers of Competitive balance when for at least 10 years now they've held a payroll between 7-13th Overall in all of MLB. And I'm pretty sure they've been in top Revenue when I last checked for last 4 seasons. NOT a BOTTOM 15 Organization who needs Competitive Balance help. Can any other Franchise lay claim to getting the Lottery pick while possessing top 15 team payrolls and revenues? How is this not addressed during the CBA?

Getting passed his 10-5 rights once they hit will make Braun hard to move. But how would teams feel on Braun he posts another 4WAR season very close or exceeds .900 OPS again? 19million less. 1 more 19million year and his contract reduces. 3year risk vs 4. Continued performance that didnt tail off and asserts more chances of lesser decline with age. Braun may want his option guaranteed to accept a trade but again its a year gone by without signs of soon to happen decline. Brewers could still kick money increasing his trade value. So I wouldnt commit his value never being higher.

Amazes me how in 55games played, Arcia is already being pushed aside and warranting trade suggestions because of his Offense. One that occurred at age 21 turned 22. When guys like Lewis Brinson and Corey Ray are yet to see ML action while older. You know who he can probably be a comparable to? Elvis Andrus only with more Range than Elvis. Who's subpar bat has accumulated 24WAR. I'm thinking Arcia starting in the same kind of Andrus prospect has 10% higher ability offensively as well as defensively. Makes him 5WAR without any breakout. And there is some breakout potential having more power to start= deep flyball outs for Andrus-HR for Arcia. And respecting some more power=deeper playing OF allowing for more hits to drop in than Andrus' defense. I'm telling you he's special and going to be one of Milw's all-time best if he gets his career playing here. You don't want to trade that away over him .745 OPS vs. .815 in next 6years.

So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun. And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely. The thing to me is Defensively. Eaton is being Highly rated for the 440 chances he had last season. Which is less than 3outs in a game. Depending on score and how many chances weren't 100%, Ill say corner OF defense matters by 1out a game, so long as you possess an arm where runners arent taking extra bases on you. Offensively, youre getting 4+PAs to impact the game. So when you're bat is Eaton vs Braun's in numbers, theres a reason many prefer Braun over Eaton and dislike the Nationals offer to get Eaton. If you were picking players for 1 pickup game who'd be picked? Braun or Eaton? Suggesting those were your two best OFs next in line. I understand the extra value Eaton earns over a season, but in post season when it can be 1-7games value, Brauns performance swings far higher good/bad than Eatons will.

Its early in to this offseason. There are FAs to sign, namely Andrew McCutchen yet to be traded. Honestly, the fact that Puig hasnt been rumored to another team, knowing the Dodgers have desired moving him. I think the Dodgers and Brewers revisit the trade discussions when more dust clears. Arizona has yet to make their joke trade, have their pitchers openly available. And then again, leaving Braun in the lineup that stands to be potent with minor improvements. I like Santana #4, Thames to #5 behind Braun. With Villar/Broxton or Arcia 2. Thames will make or Break the offense from being ML average to +.4 runs over average. And Santana the same. That excess runs scored puts 81+wins possible. And if Pitching were ever to show up look out. (Garza, Nelson, Peralta looking at you)

If we are moving him to 2b, I wanna see his performance there. How well he does defensively, and of course xontinue offebsively. Arcia you know will get more double play throws with his defense and how Villar handles those quick to 1b relays will be huge in value. If hes throwing the ball away or making both Arcia and he 6WAR types by completing many no chancers. And why trade that away? Could you imagine the the difference at 2b having a true plus there vs what has been there 10+seasons?

Could Oakland with their Revenue receiving being phased out, also removing them from this 16list? How is St. Louis still a part of this? Top 10 Revenue team?

Well, the Cubs will get a comp back after 2017. Soler hasnt performed as hyped. The Cubs have their closer or setup squared away. KC gets cheaper and has a player who may better his performance, at a minimum have a productive OF.

Giolito is likely 1year from Sale type numbers. And Moncada will vastly exceed in value than Eaton. The White Sox reduced payroll, improved team control, added depth...But most importantly, improved their ML team for 2017.

Uh, TPlush. What? How in the world can you even say this, while backing Puig's 1st 2 seasons that barely beat McCutchen's prior year and not even remotely in the same league of McCutchen's previous 4years, one that includes winning a MVP? How can we possibly overvalue McCutchen's value? And not cheap? well at 8WAR previous and MVP or the 6/7WAR and 3rd place MVP vote getting surrounding that season. Monetary-wise I'm sure just the 1 season like that completely pays off the remaining value he's got forthcoming. You're trolling with the bolded part.

Alright, taken quite awhile to read through the posts. I can't say I know anything about the two prospects,I've read the comments, they appear to have upside as well of course downside. Travis Shaw. This is legit 3b on the field. Provides positive WAR with his defense. Pair that up with Arcia and Villar? Can be excited about that play on the field. Let's add we removed Carter and got Thames. People get hurt or let's say this experiment completely fails. Shaw has 1b ability to protect against that. As Hernan Perez protects from Shaw's LH platoon need. As Villar protects Arcia. And again Perez protects Villar. How cool is that? You've gotta love this move just for that fact. As a statement was made earlier, The WAR value from Thornburg to Shaw is most likely equal, leaving the 2 prospects as bonus addition value in the trade. Another SP/ RP projection. How has the RP market done for Milwaukee? 3 of them have just supplied more than 3 players. KRod, Axford even brought back players. So there are great positives a RP can provide in trades. 2 Desperate needs at 1b/3b seem to be covered for the next 2years at minimum which provides time for prospects like Erceg, Nottingham, Gatewood, Lara to develop without rushing one of them. We've literally got 8 position players to play on the field with a resemblance of all being worth more than just Replacement level. Talking 3WAR+ at every position and backups behind. Love this trade it's perfect beyond the Thames signing. For someone who posted a well this isn't good trade taking a 71win team to 73 wins while losing Thornburg, I believe is vastly under appreciating the potential. The pitching is coming. There are a lot of team control players now to play the field. And a number of prospects that can replace for quite some time. The depth is amazing and we got more with Dubon and Pennington, while filling a need the depth needs catching up to. This is a competitive team being put on the field. Not a 70win team but one that has 81wins within it. And that's before the talented depth reaches the everyday team.