brewcrewdue80

I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you. Sorry, I get that way when digesting info in the moment. Adrian Gonzalez for 5years playing with Dodgers, being a year older than Braun and contract over 20mil paid yearly. Has only provided an .807 OPS at 1st base. Yet been valued as 14.2 BWAR. While BRef gives him a 0 type Def WAR value over those 5years. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. And if an .807OPS makes you a 3WAR 1b. Braun has 12-13WAR to give these 4years if not more.

Similar bat, similar age, not similar fielding abilities. Encarnacion is strictly limited to 1b/DH. He got 20mil equal to Braun's original pricetag to contract for his bat only. Braun is capable to play the Corner OFs. It shows if anything to me of the 15 teams that would really use EE's services they were willing to part with a 1st rd pick. His deal has an option for 20million a 4th year vs. that of Braun's 15million. 6 of those 15 .900 OPS bats were 1b/DH. Giving Goldschmidt/EE the benefit that they are .900 OPS bats that is 8/17 related directly to 1b/DH roles. Remove the 3 said above not likely to stay. That list becomes Trout, Donaldson, Bryant, Arenado, JD Martinez and Braun. 3rd as an OF. Pretty much it's 10 teams that can say Braun will be their 2nd best bat in the lineup. And the rest of MLB he is their best bat on that team like he is on ours. Now you could argue there's teams out there with a batter youthful bat awaiting to produce beyond Braun's but it takes a lot of those to knock him off a #1 bat for a team in to the best of the #2s. He's certainly not a batter you wouldn't want at the plate in any game situation. He's proven to be exceptionally consistent at all times in a game. Based on what I wrote before on the bat talents at the top of prospect ratings, any moves by Stearns is taking a huge risk to acquire a lesser bat just to save some salary. FWIW, Cody Bellinger hasn't played to a .900OPS bat in the minors. Which I shown at 1b happens more frequently than any other position. The Dodgers have played him in the OF to help get him a place to fit on the ML if he's to be called up. Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years. I dunno why I waste so much time with this. Obviously guys who look at a bottle half full appreciate Braun to having value. And guys who see the bottle as half empty think it's not there. Just never going to break that mindset regardless how many stats, comparables I put down in writing. I won't do it anymore. Signing off this thread. BrewCrew.

Braun was the last of the .900+ OPS club that totaled....16. 3 in that club were Colorado Rockies players: Blackmon .933 Arenado .932 LeMathieu. LeMathieu hadn't batted over .800 OPS and Blackmon's previous career high was .803. Arenado is a legit .900OPS bat. A guy by the name of Corey Dickerson had previously batted .869 and .931OPS. But playing for Tampa BA dropped 60pts and OPS only .761. Daniel Murphy turned a previous high fullseason OPS of .809 to .985 last season, at the young age of 31. You can remove those 3 most likely while adding a few like Goldschmidt. Corey Seager/Manny Machado. But you end up with essentially 15 bats that will OPS .900 for you.(and Ortiz who lead all is retired and was last of 11 on this list last season) Just keep dogging Braun's value with the defense he provides in the Outfield...One I've stated averages to a little more than 2 full chances in a game to impact. And ignore the DH spot in AL because only 6 well now 5 of those .900OPS bats reside there. Braun is providing every bit to what he is being paid and likely exceeds it imo. Certainly with how his payments are made, he's far exceeding it. Now, teams can wish and hope the bat they have as a prospect turns in to top 15 in all of baseball. Or they can acquire that bat. Moncada the #1 prospect at this moment .916OPS in 2016 in minors. .513 his little time spent in the Majors. Andrew Benintendi .910OPS in minors .835 Majors. Eloy Jimenez .901OPS in minor 0 ML PAs. Kyle Lewis 30 Minor games .915OPS Nick Senzel 68 minor games .912 That is it for the top 50 prospects end of 2016 season. Bats like Braun's are extremely hard to come by. The Nationals paid 12.5million a year to Daniel Murphy for his .755OPS career bat to play 2nd base. They would have been laughed off if they predicted the season completely out of his norm he had. You think Murphy would have only gotten 12.5mil a year if he had that .985OPS of 2016 to his credit? You pay for what you expect and 19mil a year for Braun producing a .900 OPS is everything you paid for. Ten teams the real small market teams, you can pretty much expect not to have 20mil+ players on them since they can't afford that in an overall team payroll. Leaves about 20 teams that can. 5 are on Braun's ok to trade list. maybe just 4. The others are on his no-trade list. Then you get to the fact of what prospects a team can offer and in Ari, LAA, SF, and Miami what are they really offering worth Braun's bat? and worthwhile now to add to the deep system Stearns has built? So of course there's little chatter ongoing in a Braun trade. But if you believe teams are sitting there like, "Braun is getting paid well to much for what he does. Awful contract and no use for him on our team" I posted long ago the behind the scenes comment of interest if Braun would be made available in July's trade market, the bat they'd want.

Im going to assume that if the Dodgers dont get Dozier, its them not wanting to part with the same prospect Stearns is asking for.

I spoken my complaints before on this guessing War. Just 1WAR of extra vs that projection is worth 8million. So while you project McCutchen 6.3WAR over the next 2 seasons. His career avg is 4.75BWar with 3 or 8 seasons being below that. At his peak he was a 7War player for a 3 year stretch. We're knocking him down so much due to injuries that with 153games played in 2016, meant he played through. All it takes is 1 season like that 7War and it exceeds your projection. The other aspect is you give him a trade value only to his surplus value. As if, 28.5million for his potential should matter. If he's providing 54million value he shouldn't net what would amount to 15million in prospects? Lemme do the math now. Pitt sends 54million(selling low) in Mccutchen, 62mil in Meadows, and 39million in Kellar=155million Get Quintana at 134million and 15million of C grade prospect=149mil Yankees send Mateo at 22.4 and 1 5mil prospect=27.4 receive Mcutchen's 54mil selling low value. White Sox send Q/134, 2 5mil prospects=144mil Recieve 62,39 and 22.4=123.4mil in return. Makes Pitts -6million White Sox -20.5mil Yankees +26.5mil+Comp pick for McCutchen I'd believe the Pirates would need Blake Rutherford from the Yankees Remove Mitch Keller and replace with K-Brayan Hayes for White Sox. White Sox remove Tilson. Add Tyler Danish to the Yankees. Add Nick Kingham from the Pirates to the White Sox. Still feel the Yankees should add a small piece to the Pirates and White Sox. Something like Tyler Wade to Pitts. Jordan Montgomery to the White Sox. Kingham I know was a top 100 prospect not long ago who lost his shine with a TJ surgery. Came back last season, On the rise back, should likely be higher than he is ranked. I think the White Sox would be pleased having him in the deal.

You gotta try again. Yankees only giving 2 prospects for McCutchen? #4/18? White Sox give Quintana and #11/22 prospects. get just 3 prospects? Pirates lost McCuthchen, their #1&2? What a get for the Yankees and a complete mistake on the Pirates. Essentially it'd be like saying Isan Diaz and Corbin Burnes for Andrew Mccutchen.

Why is EE given a 142wrc+ vs Braun's 131? When Braun higher BA and slightly lower Slg, but OB pretty much the same? Is the Wrc based on the fact of 200+PAs? or that much higher for the little Slg advantage? That is something I wanted to point out. The extra PAs result in more chances of earning WAR. I'm actually surprised the PAs are so little to Encarnacion's advantage because he's played 31 games more than Braun, in the AL and just shy only of 200PAs. There shouldn't be a big advantage with 3rd to 4th as EE batted 3rd this season often. And when you add Braun has 13Sub game ABs while EE has only 2 such. It's really a 42game advantage. So doing the math, I'm shocked it's only about .1 PA a game difference between the two. Especially a good offensive team the last 2 years vs. the Brewers. Well, I'll consider that a lesson for Fantasy baseball. EE had a much better 2015 than Braun. Almost 20 points of OBP and 60 points of SLG. the stats quoted are of 2015-2016. Just to not add another post, the ask is why 142-131 if Braun has +26pts BA -3pts OB and -26pts slg. Why is Encarnacion given the 11pt advantage wrc+? Slg really that much a positive over the BA? Or is it the PA advantage?

Why is EE given a 142wrc+ vs Braun's 131? When Braun higher BA and slightly lower Slg, but OB pretty much the same? Is the Wrc based on the fact of 200+PAs? or that much higher for the little Slg advantage? That is something I wanted to point out. The extra PAs result in more chances of earning WAR. I'm actually surprised the PAs are so little to Encarnacion's advantage because he's played 31 games more than Braun, in the AL and just shy only of 200PAs. There shouldn't be a big advantage with 3rd to 4th as EE batted 3rd this season often. And when you add Braun has 13Sub game ABs while EE has only 2 such. It's really a 42game advantage. So doing the math, I'm shocked it's only about .1 PA a game difference between the two. Especially a good offensive team the last 2 years vs. the Brewers. Well, I'll consider that a lesson for Fantasy baseball.

Perhaps the comps for Braun being boom or bust players at age 33 is not unique to him - maybe that's just a point where most players start to go in the tank. I looked at Fangraphs and saw that 8 position players had a WAR of 2.0 or better last year who were age 33 or older (this was out of 96 players). That's not a lot. I don't know if this is the answer - but maybe, on average, guys just start to really fade at this age. Sure you have exceptions to the rule - Beltre and Beltran and Molina, etc. - but on the whole, buys just tend to fade around 33. So guys that pretty much have produced their whole careers, with maybe a season that didn't, like Braun has.

Hey just repeating that he said it. If the Brewers had that pick that would have been 2 in a row, so there's a good chance they'd have spent it on a HS kid. Sorta like the way they went Roache/Coulter.

However, it is a big assumption to assume we would have taken him there. Fans that were big on We ended up with a higher compensation pick for losing Brian Shouse than we did for Sabathia. Let that sink in for a minute. And while it is correctly pointed out that it would be a huge assumption to say the Brewers would have drafted Trout, there was a lot of reports of the Brewers taking a particular liking to Trout prior to the draft. Wow, that is something I did not know on Shouse. How terrible that was. I wouldn't think it was an assumption anymore after all the times Melvin mentions that draft and the screwjob the Brewers got. He said They would have drafted Mike Trout with that pick.

These two things coincide with preparing to sell a team. Part of that stadium that was built for him, was he couldn't sell the team for a period which I think ended in 2015? Maybe 2016 which fully shows he's getting out as soon as it is allowed. Jose Fernandez was option 1 for a Franchise face, he didn't play ball in contract negotiations. Stanton immediately became that franchise face for which you sell up your team franchise on. Adding others, he spent some money in order to attract future buyers, every bit like Milwaukee did with Selig's ownership. Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Gallardo, Rogers, Tony Gwynn Jr all guys that would have been on an up and up to sell a franchise to. Here's a winner forthcoming, you can fill your seats with, full on flexibility with the payroll to make the team as you'd like. I'm going to say that with Selig's experience and the flame out he experienced, Loria and him being friends have discussed this and found a better plan. To have secured the Face of the Franchise on the ML roster vs. in the works in the Minors. But, that's the conspiracy I'm going with. All I know, is I lived in Miami, went to baseball games and they had no fans there. They may have been posting 10-14k but I wouldn't put 5k in the stands in attendance at those games. Now, they got this new stadium and it's located downtown Miami which was the argument to what kept their attendance down at the other stadium. approx a lil over 1.7mil the last 3years. The last three years before the new stadium? You can give an avg of 1.5million. That is less than 2500 more fans per game in attendance than what they had been getting. They went from being the worst to 4th worst in attendance, to 3rd to 4th worst still. Loria got himself a Futbol stadium built in the form of a baseball stadium. When he sells this team, just wait for MLS to find a home at this stadium. Where instead of less than 17,500 people attend are near full capacity. It's a soccer city, not a baseball city, there are far too many immigrants or illegals that are from countries where soccer reigns supreme...sorry I mean futbol. Said this before on Sunday during the NFL season, you find bars only playing soccer and have to search for one with NFL playing. That is how big futbol is.

I am all for getting Jenkins. He is still under a lot of team control and young. This would be one of those types that you turn in to a BP arm stud. But what does Milw have to do to get him? Do you put in a Waiver claim? Or have to trade for him? I'd imagine if it's a waiver claim, wouldn't Atlanta just step back in and claim in ahead of Milw's chances? I don't get why the Rangers would trade for him and dump him immediately? He's still very young and experience in the Bullpen very little compared to Games Starting history. You'd think there is something else disturbing his value.

You can project the Defense and SB ability. certainly to the 40SB+ range. And I'm pretty sure based on minors you could at least give him 15HRs with potential over 20. Below avg BA but avg or better OB. If he remains a positive Defensive CF there is not much keeping him from exceeding 3WAR with 125+ games played. And with a .260/.335/.425 type line with 20HRs, and 45 SBs I'd think that he reaches 5WAR if not higher. Just why would you risk trading that away before it's happened? Denard Span would be a little comparable minus the power. He got Alex Meyer a top 50 type pitching prospect, yet to pan out, but that type of prospect with 3 years/20.25mil contract control remaining. Span pretty much had a sub .700 OPS the last 3 years played with Minn before the trade when he produced 5WAR with a .738OPS 4HRs/17SBs .283/.342 year. And that's why I say Broxton's year last season, his finished totals, will carry with him for awhile, his trade value just won't drop the next 3seasons to what it must be today. It can only go higher. While we have a far greater number of OF prospects, until they've reached the team and performed to a higher value than Broxton, He remains more valuable to this team than they are. What a trade to acquire him for Rogers, and also get Trey Supak.

I wouldnt give Broxton the better than to those two after a rookie season. Exactly what are we doing if we're trading away the better players thus far on this team who arent getting A prospects in return? Weve gone from Melvin extending players whom he should have traded, to wanting to rid of every good player of 1yr with 4+ years of team control, not named Zach Davies. What if Broxton is the best OF in this organization? You trade him, and get back a Kevin Pillar type prospect, and a Wily Peralta type prospect. Well great, we're worse now than we were with keeping Broxton. Now if we were trading for a Chris Sale type pitcher who definitely improves the team, that is different. But that isnt realistic at this moment for that kind of trade. If Puig can live off of his first 2seasons, Broxton&Villar can certainly live on 2016 til their 2nd year of Arbitration. The value is 90% not going to reduce what it is today. But it can increase.

Way to crunch numbers. How is that WAR for just 1st round choices? Though the old comp style 1st rounds could last what is the end of the 2nd round these days. Is there a way you could say evaluate the top 35picks. And then Picks 36-315? Essentially I'm giving 15 comp picks 5 for 1st and 10more beyond in suggesting 315/10 rounds for 30 teams with 15 comp picks. And looking a BRef, 315 is the approximate end of the 10th round the last 4 drafts. Which would seem to coincide with the current QO/comp system vs the supplemental. Looking at 2012&2011 the 1st round had 60 1st round picks 2010-50 and 2009-49 46 then 64, 44, 48 2005. Looking at 10th round its not much changing, the changing would come in on the 2nd round today type picks who are listed for 1st round choices.

All players have value even minor leaguers. From a few trades I have looked at surplus value numbers get pretty close to matching up. A lot of people think the Eaton trade is bad, but the teams traded off similar surplus value respectively. Goes back to my Sale question. I dont get how trading the value of the ML player involved whos known commodity, vs the unknown yet to be a ML player? Why would you swap anywhere near even? I expect near 2-1value back. Since prospects flame out. In Braun's case Im certainly not taking a model that reduces his WAR value by so much over 4years, when hes improved each the last 2years. Coming up with 8.8mil surplus value is low to me. Especially if the tail end of that 1WAR value is near over 9mil alone! So the value if you add 1WAR becomes twice the value being said. 17.8mil. Add another 1WAR it's 27million surplus value. And that to me is where Id approximately start my conversations for trading Braun.If we're hung on him as that 8.8mil value.

Fangraphs is great with stats on percentages. Pitching especially with velocity numbers, type of pitches pct thrown. But some values never seem to matchup with my opinion watching someone. How low they rate Braun. I cant see Braun as worth 2games above replacement only. Hes such a difference maker in the lineup. Far more than 2games worth. They value defense so much it skews their WAR.

Well my age has something to do with it. Pretty much became a knowledgeable fan around 1989 at 8years old. My favorite player was Molitor and I cried when he was moved. My gpa, has some effect with his voice on the Miller Park dealings, what was a game a year with him, stopped, as he never again watched the Brewers to my knowledge. Dont even bring up Brewers around him on his property. The thing of the disgust, was as a commissioner, he found a way to build a stadium, funded by taxpayers mostly, tanked, and sold the team with the franchise in a better situation to sell to someone. Also around this time, Moved Loria in to ownership of Miami. Who has done the exact sequence of events that Selig did in Milwaukee. Sorry/not sorry towards my opinion, but i didnt grow up and witness the team in its glory World Series years.

I dont get these minor league surplus value. And how does Waljer Buehlers increase? He pitched what? 5innings and was shut down. How does a TJ arm, who gets shut down upon return, increase his value? To me he should have near 0value because of the injury risk. I would never take Buehler thisoffseason for Braun. All the way to next offseason. This is a college arm starting off his professional career on the wrong foot. What? Is his added value based on the 5ip ERA? Because I think Kodi Medeiros went 7ip 0hits allowed his first start. Now he pitched to a 5ish ERA from that point. But at least he continued throwing. Talk about selling high with that value. And at this date with BA's top 10 Brewer prospects, 5being pitchers, why even consider such a risk? He may return to the mound and lost 2-3mphs on his FB. Or last 3 outings again and have to be shelved. Minors surplus value. How much is that projected with their ceilings vs flameout prospect? You should always be ahead in value from the ML player traded for, because that is a known, vs an approximation. Someone post to me the Sale trade exchange values. Just for my reference.

um, ok... Still against the rules, and his next offense is 100 games, possibly a lifetime ban for his 4th offense, not sure. I find that very concerning. Seems like at this point in his career, especially with a prior conviction, the kid should have his priorities in order, and doing anything he can to advance his career. Either he is addicted, or he is an idiot. If he gets banned from the minors, would that include him playing in the Majors? Or would he essentially become a Rule 5 pick where he is to remain on the ML roster and not be sent to minors where he is banned from playing?

Well can now get excited on the Brandon Woodruff train. The recognition just came. Diaz,Diplan i fully expected. Im surprised they ranked Ray ahead of him. Erceg, what a draft choice. As to Phillips missing the top 10, he's obviously right near that 10 spot. But truthfully he's become your odd man out to make the team after his season last year. Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Braun. He needs 2 to go on DL to get his shot. And then hes got Ray, Clark, Harrison, Orimoloye breathing down his neck to overtake his position of depth. Think hes just at a point, set him in the 11-15 and his future becomes one where hes traded down the road. Only breaking out would keep him in line to make the Brewers ML team. As down as I have been though to Ray, if that comes true, Phillips still has his Lh bat shot to fall in the 4th,5th OF roster spot, before hes overtaken in the pecking order Edit add: Bickford was a consensus top 100 prospect last year, and I wouldn't think his performance would dictate a drop out of the top 100. So, are we looking at 9 top 100 prospects preseason 2017? 10? or even 11? And that's being serious. All 10 seem realistic to me.

FYI, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected as the worst team in baseball for 2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/ To be fair, this projection may have come before the Tommy Milone signing. Would guesstimate total at about 67wins. I dunno how they put San Diego in front of Milwaukee. One would assume they expect Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals with their 90+win projections to have a better record heads up than combined 14-18 vs Brewers in 2016. Also the total unknowns for Bullpen and Thames, and now that he's gone from Boston, to take Shaw from a 3WAR easy player to a -1WAR type of player. Who plays Catcher? since all will be a rookie for playing in an entire season they likely give them all a combined -WAR taking in to Account Lucroy's far superior WAR. I'm sure give all the Brewers a regression who seen success last season. Villar from a 3 to 1WAR, Perez 1.4 to .2 WAR, Braun 3.2 to 1.7. Surprisingly they left Guerra from 2.5 to 2.4 and Broxton 2.1 to 2.0 but then again, how short is that selling Keon based on his terrible 1st half? Davies 2.8 to 2.0 Santana they at least upped him 1WAR. Well Shaw from 1.5 to 1 only. Thames doesn't have a Steamer on FG but -1.8WAR value from Depth Charts.... which gives Carlos Gomez a 2.2WAR project, Ryan Braun just 1.9 as highest Brewer followed by Travis Shaw with 1.1 pretty much 1.0 for much of the Brewer top bats. Thames is literally dead last of 594 batters at -1.8. Matt Davidson is the only other batter with -1.0 to be at or below -1.0 Corey Hart and Nate McClouth have a higher projection value, as does Adam Brett Walker. Arcia is being given a .3/ .4 WAR projection. Pretty much all but Santana were downgraded from last year's WAR. It's funny how we chime Braun's health being a detriment, but he's projected 133 games while Villar is only projected 130games. Negative value in a bat. From 18.3 to -3.6. I guess you gotta beat up on some team. I think Thames in Spring Training will adjust everyone's attitude toward where this team is headed. Steamer didn't project him wisely.

It's not about what he's accomplished by winning a World Series, it's how he's manipulated his way into serious money without spending many dimes of his own, if any. Predicted from the onset when the public was forced to pay to build a stadium he barely had to pay in to, and boom, Just a few years later he's looking to sell the team. Thank you Miami Taxpayers for making my ownership over 1billion dollars. Should have never been awarded to build a stadium for a fanbase that has no interest in Baseball. The League should have forced Miami to sell their franchise, but Selig of course made sure his friend was to come in to some serious cash, much more than what Bud himself came away with in the Miller Park stadium deal. Just absolutely despise them both.

A computer comes up with projections based on what someone inputs them to compute. What they put in value for X, Y, Z. And I'm suggesting the person's responsible for this input and receive feedback, take the feedback with the worst projection. Or pretty close. You run this program and it comes out with 1.4, 2.1, 3.0,.3.5, 4.1, 6.0 all based on a minor adjustment and then deciding to run with the 2.1WAR model. That is my suggestion. Now I could be wrong and a computer puts out this information simply by putting Braun's 2016 numbers added to whatever it's history is. But I am thinking someone runs a model with saying Braun will be a .265 avg hitter. a .275 avg hitter. a .290hitter. a .310 hitter. Inputs whether he'll hit 23HRs or 33HRs. a .335OB or a .365 OB. The computer processes all that and the person running the model decides which outcome to post. What if the model is based on the previous 3 seasons only? Or can be set that way by the same individual. So that 4th year can't predict a more positive outcome....Well in Braun's case 5th year. But that's my take on how a prediction/projection model is figured. With input put in by a real person and a computer that computes what it is being presented with. Now, if a Computer is just given a name and it spits out the final answer, that would be a different story. What is that new phone name? Alexis, What is Ryan Braun's WAR for 2017. What is Mike Trout's? And Alexis spits out 1.9WAR. And that is your definitive answer, I can't argue any human emotion or math and input helped lean the answer to that.