brewcrewdue80

Renfroe 1HR in 16.34 ABs Tellez 1HR in 15.11 ABs Adames 1HR in 18.17 ABs SS position top tier defense Alonso 1HR in 14.93 ABs. Taylor is still a full game of ABs(Adames) and 2 games of ABs before he hits that HR. All of those players walked more frequent than Taylor. It's Statistics and by them Taylor's HR impact is near 1 a week and the others are near 2 HRs a week. Positional impact matters. Tellez was worth .9 BWAR. If he was RH he wouldn't be playing. Milwaukee also doesn't have 4 1b that could step in and produce equal or better numbers than Taylor has. He's only a 4th OF while in his prime now and in 2-3 years he be tossed around to rebuild teams trying to continue losing, if at all.

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly. Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft. The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy. Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games not helping weekly. Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's. Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him. That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS. He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison. To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team. 1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce. The other 4games is 529 OPS. Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg 529OPS Frelick less his HRs- .316 BA .389 OB .399 SLG 715 OPS Keep in mind Taylor had 17HRs in 373 ABs 1 in 21.94 Frelick had 11 in 492. 1 in 44.72 So about half the time Comparable would be 8-9 HRs Feeling pretty certain Brewers offense scores quite a lot more runs with Frelick than sticking with Taylor for a few more HRs.

Personally I'd feel much more confident with the bullpen if Houser was destined to only play there for the season.

You're not saying something I don't already know. Though the BTV difference is absurdly shocking. 2years of #1 or 2 SP in all baseball still in Arbitration compared to 6years of #2-5 prospect in all baseball? Outside factors that BTV isn't calculating in Burnes value would include-talks to extend after traded for vs waiting til his Free Agency and getting a return for future Qualifying Offer. This versus losing a draft pick signing Burnes 2 years from now. Nobody knows the state of mind a GM sees their team. As a fan one has to see Baltimore as coming out of a rebuild with numerous promising young talent that will produce playoff teams when healthy. The GM may have other intentions. Maybe influenced with owners preparing to sell. Or the GM believes the team can win now especially adding a Burnes on the team. So far for Henderson his fielding pct at 3b or SS is below .940 in his professional career minors included. Adames hasnt posted 1 season below .940. Urias career in the majors is higher at both SS or 3b. What if a GM sees his future for 2b versus the SS/3B future Henderson is being ranked for? It's highly unlikely but there can always be a chance. Btw they updated Henderson's minors prospect rankings today as Baseball America lists him #1 heading in to 2023. Chourio is #3

The original thought I said was Henderson but that was when it appeared he was a #70s prospect. When checking the current list he's like 5 or something and I backed out to the next further down but with 2 prospects return. If Baltimore is turning down Corbin Burnes for Gunnar Henderson as you suggest, what a mistake when looking for a SP. Henderson appears their 3b but I'm not sure defensively he can stick there. Milwaukee could send Anderson as insurance for the 3b position in any trade involving Henderson. I'm kinda coming from the idea that Mayo's road would be blocked at 3b. As he climbs levels the risky K pct should it climb would wipe out his current trade value. In the trade idea Baltimore is buying and I'd definitely want something bigger than another OF or a not proving value with Povich. I don't see the upside in both those players who are still well over a year away. Johnson just makes sense when thinking SP/RP He could Start early in games in the minors and as his innings climb move to RP and consider shuttling him to the Brewers if he appears ready. Houser is definitely skilled to be a great RP. Somewhere I said he lost velo on FB but didn't on this secondary pitches which I believe made him more hittable. Plus his walk rate inched higher. Depending where his velo sits likely determines his SP or RP role.

Houser's name popped up in a MLBTR article that Baltimore is searching for a Starter addition. Guess a guy in Baltimore had history with Houser when in Houston as the tie to the idea. Any trade ideas if you sent Houser to Baltimore? At first I wondered on Gunnar Henderson but I didn't realize he was like top 5 sitting on lists. BRef listed in the 50s/70s preseason last season. He would be a headliner in a Woodruff or Burnes deal. Looking down MLB list among their top 10 prospects, there are what reads high risk, high reward types in Coby Mayo and Seth Johnson. If Baltimore would part with both for Houser, I think that would be a trade to agree with for Houser. The two are more 2024 potential than seeing games in 2023 so I'd venture the Brewers FO wouldn't make that trade expecting to find someone to play in 2023.

So annoying towards manipulating for 7th season. Turang does not scream super star forthcoming. Quite a decent amount here expect him to fall flat on his rookie season and wanted a move like this to push Urias to 2b and less reliant on how the Brewers season would go playing a questionable rookie. Those doubts come true you know what will happen? He's optioned to minors rolling his service time back Then, rather than holding him down 2weeks. If he's a stud instead his future control can be dealt with via an extension. 2weeks=Super 2. 4th arb-more money expectations. Good version of Turang extension solves your problem. Lacking version? More time in minors(like Arcia) and the price value should remain affordable/doable throughout. AAAA players going to AAAA Stars going to extend. Middle ground like the feel Turang will be, useful and affordable and mindfully on the look out to find better at their position. I get withholding a minute portion of players til Super 2 is passed. But a vast majority its not making a difference.

They picked a young top 100 prospect in Jordan Groshans to play at 3b. They also have a recently better Joey Wendle to be backup. Unlike the Brewers they are committing to allow their young players play versus leaving a reason to keep them blocked. Plus Anderson's past made him a bigger Arb projection than what his recent play is worth. I'm not too excited since this precludes less playing time towards Turang, Urias, Brosseau, and potentially some of the big 4 OF prospects whomever they go with at the ML level. I think the floor helps the depth among the infielders and those incentives must reward to a return to the non-injured version of Anderson prior to 2021 season. I think in the end they are better with Anderson if he's 26 on the 26man roster than previous #26 feelings who they would field. Especially so should Urias have another typical IL stint when opening day arrives.

Miami acquired Groshans at deadline last season and he took over the majority of 3b games. Miami also played Joey Wendle around the infield and 3b. All but 3 of BA's OF games came after the trade. Brosseau has a worse fielding pct than Urias at 3b BA is better than both with an upper tier arm strength throwing to 1st. Jace Peterson comp works defensively for 3b. Jace was only above avg defense they had at 3b. The EV for BA his 2 solid seasons touched 90+ avg. The other seasons about 88 reducing his numbers. Depth for 3b defense but lower batting ability. Sorta a sideways move and it adds questions towards Turang's OD status. If the team moves Hiura this makes perfect sense.

Who is Milw waiving from the SP rotation? He also lines up with being gone after 2seasons. The rotation doesn't need adding. Not short term. Beyond 2024 yes but not up to 2024. Need bats. Not trading bats for short term pitching. Extensions take two to tango. Not a good sign Miami hasn't extended Lopez already to believe his next team will before Free Agency. They did sign Cueto to a 1+1 deal. Lopez has real solid numbers yet via that rumor and trade offers he's giving off value of a #3-4 SP vibe vs a solid #2 value. So that's like 15-18mil FA years on extension. Miami should have done that vs get Cueto. Gotta be Lopez wanted no extension.

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal. The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal. The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.

I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.

Up there with Cirillo as a fan fave during those seasons. Like Yount had that great stache.

Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.

Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.

The way I'm reading the OP, I'd definitely believe the teams who pick 1-6 are the teams that aren't allowed on the following seasons. I could see how a 13th place team moving in to top 6 and having a losing season the following where they were/are more likely to pick in top 6, arguing that they should be allowed to stay but I mean they would only drop less than 6 picks? How you going to win the argument when you were just awarded an earlier pick the year before. It's a great move in the right direction to penalize a team tanking multiple seasons in a row, to go with the rewards for playing a top 100 prospect from the moment a season begins, to the prospect gaining a full season service time finishing top 2. Tanking teams wouldn't want to play their top prospects until forced by the prospect. Kris Bryant the full example not being played in Sept and held back even further from Opening day just to gain the 7th season team control while tanking that season before. I would think top prospects are called up earlier now with this change for the better for baseball and fans.

The splits graph has a consistent .300-310 BABIP with 2 months 400+ and 500+, the .500 plus was in 7games used. I think your seeing .300+ BaBIP displays how good a hitter he could be if he wouldn't (as noted above) swing and miss pitches that are in the zone. That .400+BABIP is reasonable when he's hitting line drives during a hot streak. Not full season but he could carry multiple games for the offense with that month. Just can't maintain a 20-23pct k rate to see the value his bat provides. I would believe there are teams to trade him to. But I don't believe teams are meeting the asking price(probably a valuable lottery ticket prospect included) Also we put out there teams that are not in competitive to use and play him. That's pretty few right now with 3 of them in our division. Then you have Hiura's defense liabilities and fitting him with that teams roster current make up. Take KC. Their big contract player is Sal Perez a C/DH. They have a top 50 prospect who's Lefty graduate at 1b. And Hunter Dozier another top 3 paid player on KC who is an infield Util at 2b/1b/DH. They may be in mid rebuild with no chance at 80 wins, but have no use for Hiura. Texas? They have a 155game starting stud 1b in Nathaniel Lowe. Why acquire Hiura to only take up games as DH. I think in the end this is a trade to Pittsburgh like we've done in the past for a scrap RP the Brewers can option this year and may have below 4ERA ability. And a prospect that is a swing SP likely RP who's a year away from Rule 5 protection and turning 25 this uear.

I'd probably have Frelick 9 Mitchell 7 and Turang 8. You said it on vs LHP, Taylor and Brosseau, swap out 1 Lefty Of and Turang. If you can't see 4runs a game, you're not seeing the importance to Winker over McCutchen. Contreras over any Catcher. Mitchell/Frelick over Cain/Davis. We add that Turner fella you're taking the pressure off Turang's PA load as well as Hiura's 3TO style.

Man I'd think Chourio straight up may be a hard sell. What a stud in the making. Switch hitting SS/3b. Looks better via splits as a LHB than RHB so he has the platoon side you want for a switch hitter really love the fact checking he faced 1 LHP as a LH bat and hit a HR off them. Like Chourio, all but 1 pitcher he faced last season was older than him.(every pitcher was for Chourio!) Considering the OF prospects Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer, I'd certainly be willing to do that heads up trade involving Chourio.

Off topic but Reds related and mild rant. Min rumor is open to a Sonnt Gray or Kenta Maeda trade. I went over to check on Gray's stats because I've felt folks thought of him as a #2 near #1 but he produced #4 numbers. Guess he had a decent couple seasons. Min acquired Gray from Cincy and I thought what did they give up? Min sent over their 1st rd selection in 2021 Chase Petty only. Sonny Gray is being paid 12+Mil this season which after Bassitt's FA deal must be 5mil savings Im thinking. So who's this Chase Petty a top 100 prospect I'm sure? Drafted out of HS 1st rd 2.5Mil signing. 70grade FB and 50s across the board. Pitched near 100innings last season below 4ERA good SO/BB rates. Yet here he is #9 for Cincy top 30 prospects. And I'm thinking immediately had the Dodgers, Atl, Yankees, and Cardinals drafted Petty in 1st rd with 2.5M signing, he'd be between 50-80 overall once the list was updated after the draft. Probably top 30 now after his 22 season when preseason lists update. Think Michael Kopech because he jad 100MPH velocity, that's what Petty has! He just was drafted to wrong organization. Just remember that name Petty as he'll be carving up Brewer hitters. For the deep fantasy baseball players out there you may want to stash or trade for him before mid-season passes. Another case in point here maybe towards Ruiz giving back such a return. Petty brought back Gray + a minor leaguer. (Oh I will say that the way Petty is progressing by prospect rankings is what I wish it were more like) Never liked a 1st rd choice immediately being added as top 25 or 50. 85-100 sure, but let's see a season played professionally before anointing them in upper tier of prospects. 1 bad immediate injury with a long recovery and now they are sitting in that spot with low if any games played. OK rant over.