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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    February 22. 2/22/22. Two to too tutu.
  2. sveumrules
    Great comeback win this afternoon. Giannis was pretty much invisible in the first half but still managed to finish with 36 PTS | 12 REB | 5 AST | 2 BLK in only 30 minutes. Was also maybe the healthiest they've been all year with Giannis, Bobby & DDV coming back off the Covid list. Current ten man rotation (for however long it lasts) should rack up the wins... Jrue / Grayson / Khris / Giannis / Bobby Hill / DDV / Pat / Wes / Boogie Obviously Brook is the big remaining question mark, and even if he does come back they could probably use another athletic PF in the big man mix, but I think the current version of the Bucks roster is better/deeper than the version that just hoisted the trophy this past summer.
  3. sveumrules
    Jones cracked 1,000 yards from scrimmage today & Dillon should get there next week which would make them the first RB duo of the Favre/Rodgers era to both top 1,000 in the same season. Some of the closer duos were... 1993: Edgar Bennett 1,007 | Darrell Thompson 783 1994: Edgar Bennett 1,169 | Reggie Cobb 878 1996: Edgar Bennett 1,075 | Dorsey Levens 792 2011: Ryan Grant 827 | James Starks 794 2015: James Starks 993 | Eddie Lacy 946 The two things that stood out going back through thirty years of GB RBs was (1) how much of a workhorse Ahman Green was, racking up 10,870 yards from scrimmage with 73 TD from 2000-06 and (B) just how neglected the position was for stretches at a time. Glad that Gute/MLF have been a little more proactive in their approach to the position. To find the last GB RB duo to both top 1,000 yards from scrimmage in the same season you have to turn the clock all the way back to that classic 1980 backfield of Eddie Lee Ivery & Gerry Ellis.
  4. sveumrules
    Yeah, this team looks a lot closer to the 2019 version, that found ways to eke out wins, than the 2020 version where the offense scored the most points in the league & maybe felt like a more authentic 13-3 team or whatever. Either way, better to be winning these close games than to lose them. All of the teams behind the Packers in the standings are equally or more flawed, otherwise they wouldn't be behind the Packers in the standings. It's ultimately going to come down to a mixture of health, match ups & hot hand. Just win the next two games & that'll give everyone two weeks to enjoy the first ever 14-3 regular season team in NFL history.
  5. sveumrules
    Not sure I really see a fit. Between Wong/Urias/Jace/Brosseau we already have pretty solid depth at 2B/3B. Mets are probably going to be looking for a return more in line with the 319/383/501 (139 OPS+) line McNeil posted over 1,024 PAs from 2018-20, while teams are going to be making offers for the guy who hit 251/319/360 (88 OPS+) over 426 PAs in 2021. If the Mets are looking for pitching it'd probably be one of Houser, Lauer, Ashby or Small headlining with guys added on the peripherary of both sides to even things out as needed. If we do end up dealing one of those four to bolster the offense I'd hope we could get something better than a bounceback candidate in return.
  6. sveumrules
    He missed the last couple games getting a rest day after a back to back, then was dealing with some sort of illness, I believe. Think they were just easing him back in last night.
  7. sveumrules
    Yeah. Pat 1st, Grayson 2nd, 35 year old George Hill 5th, Nwora 8th, Hood 9th, Thanasis 10th & Semi 11th in minutes to this point, plus one game total from Brook/DDV, yet still sitting 3rd in the East is pretty impressive. I've actually enjoyed watching some of the MASH unit games. Jrue has been especially fun to watch in more of a lead role, putting up 21.1 PPG on .549 FG% | .397 3P% with 4.9 REB | 7.2 AST | 1.4 STL over his last 16 games.
  8. sveumrules
    Strikeout & walk numbers were about as good as it gets, but that 1.3 HR9 was pretty brutal. If AAA hitters were going yard that often, Brewers decision makers might have thought MLB hitters would feast. Believe he's Rule 5 eligible if that ever ends up happening, so if another organization thinks he's worth a 40 man roster spot all season we'll find out then. If not, he'll probably come to ST battling for one of those last couple two tree bullpen spots & be a candidate for the BNA/MKE shuttle in 2022.
  9. sveumrules
    Might need to climb up on the roof & check the antenna?
  10. sveumrules
    It's a defense heavy profile, but Bader posted 3.4 WAR over 427 PAs in 2018 & 3.9 WAR over 401 PAs in 2021. If he stays healthy enough & can keep his OPS+ around 105-115, he's got a shot. A guy that might be getting underprojected for the Cards could be Juan Yepez. Dominated AA/AAA/AFL & should be in line for some DH action if it makes it to the NL this year. Just seems like one of those random Cardinals that kind of comes out of nowhere to be a solid MLB player.
  11. sveumrules
    Cardinals offense looks better than ours on a spreadsheet at the moment. It also looked better than ours by about 6% last year over 162 games per wRC+, yet the Brewers scored 738 runs vs 706 for the Cardinals. I guess that's why they play the actual games or whatever.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, it's like I get that nothing is happening right meow, but I still prefer my hypotheticals to at least be somewhat tethered to reality. Yelich & Chapman both have full NTCs with no incentive to waive them. Maybe Aroldis would waive his if the acquiring team offered up a fat market rate extension, but the Brewers aren't that team. How about Anthony Rendon? Has 5/188 left vs 7/189 for Yelich so you get out two years earlier, but about 11 million more per year. Rendon has zero trade protection in his contract. Yelich might consider waiving. He'd be going going back back to Cali Cali & would be get a chance to team up with Trout/Ohtani.
  13. sveumrules
    Yup, that's the big one. 58.9 Red Zone TD% this year (19th) vs 80% last year (1st). 2019 was 64% (9th). If Crosby only missed 2-3 FG instead of 9 that would boost the points per drive this year another 0.15 or so too.
  14. sveumrules
    Long, efficient drives definitely seem to have been an organizational strategy since MLF got here. 2019 it was 2:51 average drive time (9th) and 2.11 points per drive (10th). Still kinda of figuring things out. 2020 was about as good as it gets at 3:14 average drive time (1st) & 3.08 points per drive (1st). Ths year we've had enough length with a 3:15 average drive time (1st), but efficiency has slipped some at 2.39 points per drive (9th).
  15. sveumrules
    Believe those have been Lucroy's totals since they started incorporating framing prior to the 2019 season... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/ Since framing has been tracked in 2008, Brewers backstops have registered an MLB best +235 framing runs, with Atlanta trailing quite a bit in 2nd at +177. Granted, most of that Brewers total is Lucroy (+150), but Maldonado (+39), Yasmani (+17), Omar (+13), Zaun (+10), Manny (+10), Rivera (+7) and even Kratz (+5) all chipped in too while Kottaras (-7) & Kendall (-8) are the only guys to really grade out negatively. On the one hand, the totals do seem kind of large at the extreme ends of the leaderboards, but then again we all know the difference between results after 0-1 (620 OPS) vs 1-0 (811 OPS) or after 1-2 (510 OPS) vs 2-1 (802 OPS) etc, so when those borderline calls consistently go one way or another over hundreds of such opportunities it adds up (or subtracts down) pretty fast. However closely the publicly available metrics do or don't track with whatever numbers the more intrepid clubs have come up with on their own, Stearns & company appear to believe the effect is real. Hopefully Charlie Greene can work his magic on Severino next.
  16. sveumrules
    Yes, I've supported my position with statistics, because they are an objective representation of how the offense performed. What are you supporting your position with? "Because I said so."? Your assertion that the offense wasn't average last year is just as objectively false as your earlier assertion that they did not have a legit bat last year.
  17. sveumrules
    By runs scored the offense was 2% above NL average, by wRC+ it was 3% below average. That's about as average as it gets. It's badness can really only be overestimated, not underestimated. Sure, if you want to say bad for a playoff team, that is objectively true. But the Braves just won the World Series with the 2nd worst offense in the field. They shut out the Astros, who had the best offense in baseball, twice in six games. The Royals won the World Series in 2015 with a 99 wRC+. Anything can happen in a small sample. The playoffs are overwhelmingly random. The Brewers also had two offenses last year, pre-Adames trade (161 runs, 26th | 83 wRC+) which was actually objectively bad & post-Adames trade (577 runs, 7th | 103 wRC+) which was objectively much better. Of course I want the offense to be better next year than it was last year, but we don't need to go all the way from bad to good, just from average to better than average, which is a far less daunting task.
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers averaged 4.56 runs per game vs an MLB average of 4.53 runs per game. NL average was a little lower without the DH at 4.46 runs per game. Brewers position players posted a 97 wRC+. Taking out JBJ it would have been about 102. The offense was almost exactly average last year.
  19. sveumrules
    Man. Hopefully everybody is asymptomatic & able to come back once eligible. If its any consolation, the next ten games / three weeks until we play @BRO on Jan 7th is a pretty soft stretch in the schedule with a combined opponents record of 100-186. Prolly looking at a Jrue / Grayson / Pat / Nwora / Sandro starting lineup for Friday, which would be the Bucks 13th different starting five so far. 11-2 when Jrue / Grayson / Khris / Giannis / Bobby start, 8-9 combined for all the other starting lineups.
  20. sveumrules
    Willy Adames posted a 135 OPS+ last year, I'd say that is pretty legit. Would you consider Nelson Cruz a legit bat? If the DH comes to the NL maybe we can finally right the wrongs of 2006.
  21. sveumrules
    I think two of Mitchell / Turang / Ashby / Small as co-headliners is a pretty competitive starting point if Stearns & company do want to deal for someone like say Matt Olson or Ketel Marte to upgrade the offense. That would give the acquiring team a pair of guys lined up to start contributing at the MLB level in 2022/23. It's also a good sign that we have enough depth to possibly deal a couple of guys like that & not have it empty out the farm. That wasn't the case a couple years ago.
  22. sveumrules
    Thanks for running those numbers, CBF. My expectation was around +\- 10 on OPS+ & a little wider variance for ERA+, so cool to see it shake out in that range.
  23. sveumrules
    Thank you for the link. It's a bit like the one I posted in that both are from a fantasy perspective. What I really want to see is each projection system evaluated from a pure baseball perspective. That would include more than the usual scoring stats fantasy baseball looks at. But your link and mine both at least try to evaluate the various systems in some manner. I'd still love to see each system show its effectiveness in some objective way. They have all the numbers so they could easily do it if they wanted to. Pretty sure this year was a little wider swing than normal with the Giants essentially being thee most under-projected team of all time, but most seasons I believe the average margin of error ends up around 7-8 team wins on a macro level. On an individual player level probably the simplest way would be to focus on OPS+ for hitters / ERA+ for pitchers & then set a minimum PA/IP threshold to get a large enough sample. Just using roundish numbers, it looks like in 2021 there were 362 batters (about 12 per team) with at least 200 PAs & 338 pitchers (about 11 per team) with at least 50 IPs, that would essentially capture all the "regular" players. I don't have time to dig in now, but as the offseason drags on I might be able to poke around a little bit & try to put something together.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, even after signing Stroman the Cubs would still pretty much need to ink one of Correa / Bryant / Story / Castellanos plus maybe like Carlos Rodon & Kenley Jansen to reinforce the pitching staff if they really want to compete this season.
  25. sveumrules
    None of these lower level pitchers who couldn't legally drink last summer will probably make any prospect lists, but they'll be on my box score watch list for next summer... Pablo Garabitos (20) | ACL | 15 IP | 19 K | 2 BB Michael Perdomo (19) | DSL | 36 IP | 47 K | 8 BB Domingo Mejia (19) | DSL | 50 IP | 67 K | 13 BB Israel Puello (20) | ACL | 27 IP | 37 K | 9 BB Edwin Jimenez (19) | ACL/DSL | 39 IP | 48 K | 12 BB Rafael Camacho (18) | DSL | 45 IP | 42 K | 11 BB Kevin Briceno (18) | DSL | 26 IP | 26 K | 7 BB Alexander Cornielle (19) | ACL/CAR | 41 IP | 60 K | 18 BB Stiven Cruz (19) | DSL | 52 IP | 73 K | 23 BB Also intrigued by Leoni De La Cruz, who apparently didn't sign until he was 23 for some reason, but posted 39 K | 10 BB over 29 IP split between DSL/ACL, and Indy League signing James Meeker who racked up 22 K | 5 BB over 18 IP at CAR, though he was 26.
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