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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Comparing QBs across generations can be tough. Back in 1984, when Dan Marino had his historic season (108.9 rating) the average QB rating was 76.1. This year, when Aaron Rodgers had a pretty pedestrian by his standards (but still league leading) passer rating of 111.9, the average QB rating was 90.8. Luckily PFRef has done all the work of creating a RATE+ stat, that normalizes for era. Dan Marino's 1984 RATE+ comes in at 141, tied with 1968 Bart Starr for the 10th best mark of the Super Bowl Era. For comparison, Rodgers best season in 2011 comes in at a RATE+ of 149, tied with 1989 Marino for the second highest mark of the Super Bowl Era behind only Peyton Manning at 151 in 2004. They don't have career RATE+ numbers, but looking at single seasons & drawing an arbitrary line at a RATE+ of 119 (Rodgers mark in the 2010 Super Bowl season) here is how many seasons each QB has above that line... Rodgers (9) Peyton (9) Brees (9) Montana (8) Young (8) Favre (6) Brady (5) Marino (5) Elway (2) Aikman (2)
  2. sveumrules
    Cool to see some of the guys from Stearns & company's increased effort in the international market starting to make their way stateside, get some good reports & hopefully start climbing the ladder. After hitting 296/386/447 with 23 BB / 28 K in the Dominican complex league last summer gotta imagine that Jackson Chourio should be headed for Arizona this summer.
  3. sveumrules
    Tough break for Patty C. Something I thought was kind of interesting looking at the Bucks On/Off numbers so far this year is how despite his efficiency going through the roof (.407 3P% | .639 2P% | .630 TS%), Pat has been the only regular with a negative On/Off (-8.7 pts/100 possessions) & by quite a large margin... Giannis (+12.3) Jrue (+15.3) Khris (+4.7) Bobby (+7.8) Grayson (+5.9) Hill (+16.1) Wes (+11.8)
  4. sveumrules
    Yeah, I always liked DDV. He was great in that 5th starter role where he didn't need the ball in his hands to still have a positive impact with his defense & rebounding. At the same time, he was pretty much the only real trade-able asset on the roster & the writing was kind of on the wall ever since the Grayson acquisition/extension. Clearing out Hood/Semi & getting a couple second round picks back is just an added bonus. Also like that we kept Nwora. He might need to go somewhere else to really get an opportunity, but I still like his potential as a microwave bench scorer.
  5. sveumrules
    Congrats to LeRoy Butler on finally getting the long overdue Canton call!!
  6. sveumrules
    Giannis picked first for the ASG by LeBron. Was pretty funny when KD had to decide between Gobert & Harden for his last pick.
  7. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see if they leave Bobby with the starters when Brook does come back. Guess it could depend on when exactly Lopez is ready for game action. Obviously Brook is more of a defensive presence, assuming he isn't too limited off surgery, but Bobby has been so dynamic on offense with the starters, especially of late it has seemed. Bucks are currently at +15 pts/100 possessions in 220 minutes with Giannis/Khris/Jrue/Grayson/Bobby together on the floor per BBref, so wouldn't be surprised if they kept rolling with that group.
  8. sveumrules
    Nats are going to need to make a lot of moves to not waste the next year or even two of Soto... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-national-league-edition/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-washington-nationals/ Pretty brutal organization once you get past Third Millennium Ted Williams.
  9. sveumrules
    Westbrook is a terrible fit & a pretty big net negative (On/Off of -6.7 pts/100 possessions) whenever he is on the court, LeBron has missed 17 games & is old enough to the point where he is still an All Star level player but not in the same tier as guys like Giannis or Jokic for impact, Davis has missed his standard 21 games so far & also has been a negative when on the floor, On/Off of -2.0 pts/100 possessions. Lakers "Big Three" per 538's RAPTOR WAR... LeBron (6.3 | 8th) Davis (2.9 | 73rd) Westbrook (-1.0 | 245th)
  10. sveumrules
    Bucks with three nice wins to open their West Coast swing. Granted it was against pretty garbage squads in POR, LAC & LAL, but after how January went I'll take it. Hopefully they can close out a 4-0 trip in Phoenix on Thursday.
  11. sveumrules
    Haha, wondered if that was perhaps a fellow BF.netter. Always kinda cool when they actually grab your question out of the queue. Definitely enjoy the Goldstein & Clemens chats at FG, though nothing can quite compare to the old days when Carson Cistulli would pop up randomly every once in awhile... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/unannounced-carson-cistulli-awful-chat-4-16-18/ Carson Cistulli: A number of readers are concerned about Zack Short. I’m in no position to allay concerns — about Zack Short or anything else. Life is defined, if nothing else, by an unceasing barrage of concerns. Fortunately, it is also meaningless!
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, believe you need Paramount+ to watch the full runs of 1883 & Kingstown. Haven't been watching Kingstown, but episode 7 just dropped for 1883 I believe. Maybe wait a couple weeks until all the episodes have dropped & sign up for a free month trial then cancel? I got P+ for The Challenge: All Stars (which has ruled, so totally worth it). They also have some of the older MTV comedy shows like The State & Wonder Showzen that have been fun to revisit. Wonder Showzen especially just gets funnier & funnier as the world devolves more & more.
  13. sveumrules
    Stearns got a little mention in the Kevin Goldstein (former Astros front office member) chat at FanGraphs today... Carl: Having worked (I presume) alongside David Stearns, what would you say his strengths are that have made him successful as a GM/PoBO? Kevin Goldstein: Patience. A real desire for a diverse set of opinions going into decisions. There’s a level-headedness to him that I’ve always admired.
  14. sveumrules
    I haven't seen a deal that makes more sense than DDV, Nwora & Semi to ORL for Mo Bamba as Brook insurance. Bamba is also an RFA after the year so he could be a long term option too. Hook it up, Hambone.
  15. sveumrules
    If you ran a business what would be more important: guaranteed revenue streams, or revenue streams that can fluctuate by non-controllable variables? Maximizing all revenue streams is important. If all the TV money is already "guaranteed" anyway (though I don't believe local TV deals paid out for a full 162 in 2020), I'd be putting more effort into maximizing in person revenue. Who was making more money, the Seligs in the decade plus before they sold when the team was a joke or the Attanasios in the last 15 years they've been providing mostly contending teams with a much improved ballpark experience? Baseball has had a problem that predates this CBA & COVID. The game is not entertaining, it hasn't been for awhile. For an entertainment product, that is problematic. Sure, us diehards that post on a baseball message board will keep consuming the product one way or another, we've been indoctrinated already. Without serious changes, MLB won't have that same luxury forever.
  16. sveumrules
    Thought the Alvarez hire was kind of interesting as he & Rickie had a lot in common as players. Both were 2nd overall picks. Both walked (PA 116 BB%+ | RW 121 BB%+) & struck out (PA 148 K%+ | RW 133 K%+) at high rates. Both gave back a lot of runs in the field (PA -60 DRS | RW -125 DRS).
  17. sveumrules
    Weeks had a nice five year stretch from 2007-11 where he posted 12.8 WAR over 2,497 PAs. Problem was in his other six seasons he put up -0.4 WAR over 2,203 PAs, with the main thing holding his value back being his abysmal defense, -115 DRS. The next worst DRS among 2B since they started tracking it is Daniel Murphy at -68. For his Brewer career BRef has Rickie at +57 BAT | +26 BSR | -115 FLD | +28 POS. Even with the positive positional adjustment for playing 2B, Weeks still gave back all his offensive value when he was in the field. Compare that to Gantner who had a five year stretch from 1979-83 where he posted 11.9 WAR over 2,235 PAs. Pretty even peak with Weeks. Difference is Gumby posted another 10.5 WAR over his other twelve seasons & 4,552 PAs, closing any gap & then some. I guess if you want to ignore defense & longevity, sure, Weeks is the best 2B the Crew ever had.
  18. sveumrules
    The warning signs are there. Looking at the attendance figures at BRef... https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml The evolution of league attendance over the last 50 years or so has been something like... 1973-76 (29 to 31 million) 1977 (expansion, 38 million) 1978-80 (40-43 million) 1981 (strike, 26 million) 1982-86 (44-48 million) 1987-92 (52-57 million) 1993 (expansion, 70 million) 1994-95 (strike, 50 million) 1996-97 (60-63 million) 1998 (expansion, 70 million) From 1999 until 2019 it mostly moves around the 70 million range. A little dip to 67 million in 2002-03, then a pretty steady climb from 73 to 79 million from 2004-08 before dropping back down around 73 million from 2009 until 2017. But even before no fans in 2020 & limited attendance (45 million) in 2021, there was a dip down to 69.7 million in 2018 & then another lil fall off to 68.5 million in 2019. Between whatever looming COVID trepidation might be out there this summer & the possibility games might be lost due to labor strife, plus whatever further fan disinterest that will possibly yield, MLB might not hit 70 million in attendance again until the next time they expand.
  19. sveumrules
    Here are team wins over the last four years... MKE: 309 (7th) STL: 299 (10th) CHC: 284 (13th) CIN: 256 (21st) PIT: 231 (25th) Somewhat interesting that each clubs Farm Rank plus MLB Wins Rank adds up to 28, except the Brewers who add up to 32.
  20. sveumrules
    Los Angeles Silver Lakers.
  21. sveumrules
    For me Ashby's upside is something like Freddy. Electric stuff, but inconsistent command (due in part to how electric the stuff is) limiting how deep he can work in games. If the rotation doesn't work out, a high leverage relief role still isn't the worst outcome. Small seems more along the lines of say 2021 Lauer (72 ERA- | 91 FIP-) or 2019 Davies (80 ERA- | 103 FIP-) or 2019 Gio (85 ERA- | 95 FIP-) or 2018 Jhoulys (87 ERA- | 99 FIP-), guys with peripherals closer to league average that the Brewers analytics & defense are able to coax notably better actual run prevention from.
  22. sveumrules
    & here is the American League version... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/ ALE looks pretty competitive again with NY (90 wins), TOR (89) and TB (88) tight at the top & BOS (83) lurking. And, hey, who knows, maybe Baltimore won't lose 108+ games for the third full season in a row? Barring some big moves by teams two through five in the ALC & ALW it looks like CHW & HOU should be pretty heavy favorites for their divisions.
  23. sveumrules
    Too bad the Washington Generals was already taken.
  24. sveumrules
    Took Bud deploying an almost playoff-esque minutes distribution... Giannis (38) Jrue (36) Khris/Bobby (35) Grayson (32) Pat (25) DDV (20) Wes (14) Sandro (4) ...but the Bucks start February off with a win over the Wiz. Giannis with a casual 33/15/11 triple double after not scoring in the first quarter.
  25. sveumrules
    FanGraphs published the Lockout Projected ZiPS Standings for the National League today as kind of a snapshot of how the teams stack up before the offseason eventually resumes & it looks like they've got the same tiers for the NLC... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-national-league-edition/
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