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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    It's an increasingly position-less league, but there are still essentially three positions; ball handler (Jrue, Hill), big (Giannis, Bobby) and wing (Khris, Grayson, Pat, Wes, DDV). Sure, Giannis & Khris & maybe even DDV can handle the ball some too, but ideally in more of a secondary or tertiary capacity. If they think Brook will be back that covers the third big in the rotation. No one has picked up Boogie yet, so maybe he'll be back after the trade deadline & buyout market when the roster is more sorted? Only real assets for a possible deal are DDV & Nwora, but they should be enough to clear out some of the wing depth for another ball handler or big.
  2. sveumrules
    I think having too many good pitchers to roster them all is more of a success than it is a failure. The Brewers have won the 7th most games in MLB the last four years largely because their pitchers have posted the 6th best runs allowed based WAR in the game over that time frame. Focusing on Bickford slipping through the cracks kind of seems a little like not seeing the forest for the trees. Especially when Stearns & company have pulled multiple relievers out of their hat over the years. If Bickford was such an obvious talent how come he made it all the way to the Dodgers at the end of the waiver list?
  3. sveumrules
    Would love to still have Bickford, but that he fell victim to roster crunch is kind of a testament to the depth the front office & development staff have put together on the pitching side over the years. Bickford was one of 115 relievers that FanGraphs had at 0.7 rWAR or more in 2021. Brewers: Hader (3.4), Williams (1.6), Boxberger (1.1), Strickland (1.0), Suter (0.8) & Cousins (0.7). Ex-Brewers: Will Smith (1.5), Trevor Richards (1.0), Phil Bickford (0.9), Drew Pomeranz (0.8), JPF (0.8), Jimmy Nelson (0.7) & Jhoulys Chacin (0.7). That's 13 of 115 with Stearns & company ties in one way or another. Knebel (just missed at 0.5 rWAR) & Rasmussen (2.1 rWAR with TB mostly as an SP) are two more quality arms that didn't quite meet the criteria but were still dealt to address other needs (Drew) or too expensive to roll the dice on with the depth on hand (Corey).
  4. sveumrules
    Nate Burleson with an unfortunate slip up on the Nickelodeon broadcast when talking about how packed the Cowboys stadium is..."Jim Jones really knows how to throw a party."
  5. sveumrules
    I've found Gabrielle Nevaeh Green's naiveté quite refreshing, personally.
  6. sveumrules
    I wouldn't put too much trust in a team that lost to the Jaguars, and that was when Urban Meyer was still the coach. I fully expect the Chiefs to take care of them in short order. I wouldn't put too much trust in a team that could only muster 13 points against the Packers defense. The Bills already beat KC 38-20 in Arrowhead earlier this year. They had the best point differential in the league. KC will be favored at home, but on paper KC/BUF is easily the most intiguing match up for next week over TEN/CIN or TB/DAL or GB/whoever.
  7. sveumrules
    These things tend to go in cycles for whatever reason. AFC won 9 of 11 SBs from 1971-81. NFC won 15 of 16 SBs from 1982-97. AFC won 9 of 12 SBs from 1998-2009. Last 12 SBs have been an even NFC/AFC spli with parity's ascent.
  8. sveumrules
    Haven't really watched any Eagles this year, but Brady does have an 0-1 career postseason record against them for whatever that is or isn't worth. Granted, the Eagles were only like a 4.5 point underdog in SBLII vs an 8.5 point underdog today, but 538 is still giving them a 20% chance, which are way better odds than Lloyd Christmas ever got.
  9. sveumrules
    I think workload might have been more to blame for Eldred's injuries than the strike throwing things off schedule in 94/95. 160 IP at age 22, 201 IP at age 23, 241 IP at age 24, 258 IP at age 25. That's over 850 IP from age 22 to 25. For comparison Woodruff threw about 500 IP & Burnes threw around 400 IP over the same ages. Sheets also came in over 800 IP from age 22 to 25 & subsequently started breaking down. Some of Eldred's 1993/94 game logs are pretty nuts by contemporary standards. 143 pitches in 8 IP, 140 pitches in 6.2 IP, 134 pitches in 9 IP, 122 pitches in 4.2 IP, 122 pitches in 7 IP, 135 pitches in 9 IP, 144 pitches in 8 IP, 149 pitches in 10 IP, 130 pitches in 7.2 IP, 154 pitches in 9 IP, 126 pitches in 5.1 IP, 127 pitches in 6 IP, 135 pitches in 8 IP, etc.
  10. sveumrules
    Last team to give up 50 points was the Texans to the Chiefs in 2019, but they "only" lost 51-31, so a 20 point differential. Last team to lose by 30 plus was Vikings to the Eagles 38-7 in the 2017 NFCCG.
  11. sveumrules
    Brady vs Rodgers is essentially the same core argument as Wheeler vs Burnes for Cy Young. Brady had more volume with 188 more attempts, but it was of a lesser quality with a 113 Rate+. Rodgers had less quantity, but of a much higher quality with a 126 Rate+. Both QBs completed 366 of 531 passes (68.9%) for 4,1115 yards (7.7 Y/A & 11.2 Y/C) with 37 TD/4 INT. Brady also completed 119 of 188 passes (63.3%) for 1,201 yards (6.4 Y/A & 10.1 Y/C) with 6 TD/8 INT. It should be a closer race for sure, last year Rodgers put up the 2nd best passer rating ever, this year it was only the 20th best ever, but Rodgers is the favorite in LV for a reason.
  12. sveumrules
    Pretty much what RoCo said above, though I think he combined Paul Pressey & Ricky Pierce into Paul Pierce. From a narrative standpoint the Bucks multi year evolution over the Giannis/Khris years culminating not only in winning a Championship, but how they went about doing it, was just immensley satisfying. Molitor/Yount are first ballot no doubt HOF, Favre/Rodgers are all time great QBs, but Giannis is on a whole other level above that. A global superstar & good will ambassador...in Milwaukee. If the Brewers winning a World Series is going to feel better than that, I can only hope I stick around long enough to find out. I also think being one of the final four teams standing in the NFL two years in a row is much more of an accomplishment than it is a failure. Hopefully the MLF Packers can pay it off the third time around like the Bud Bucks did.
  13. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has a really good Brent Suter breakdown today & there wasn't really a place to put it, so figured I'd start a thread for the 2022 pitching staff. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brent-suter-the-slowest-unicorn/ I think the two biggest questions regarding the staff once MLB resumes functionality is whether Stearns & company will deal from the pitching depth to bolster the offense, and will they stick with the six man rotation if their research suggests it's beneficial from a longterm performance/health standpoint. My best guess would be they retain all of the top seven starting options with Corbin, Woody, Freddy, Houser & Lauer joined in the rotation by a low dollar veteran FA on a one year deal. Ashby opens in the MLB pen stretched out for multi inning work with Small starting in AAA & the first SP up when needed. Would also expect them to maybe sign one or two veteran FA relief options to cover the innings we got from Boxberger & Strickland last year.
  14. sveumrules
    Kinda reminds me of the Nippon Ham Fighters in the Japanese League. I always thought that was like thee craziest name. How & why would you even ever want to fight ham in the first place? Then I found out a company called Nippon Ham owns the team & they are Fighters of no specific meat.
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, it's actually kind of fun watching NBA games and seeing which teams are able to get kushy sponsor patches & which teams have to settle for like, Chico's Bail Bonds, or whatever.
  16. sveumrules
    This Oakland vs San Diego game is amazing. The NFL & NBA are entertainment products disguised as sports. MLB is barely entertaining, so baseball must be the only true sport.
  17. sveumrules
    Losing the NFCCG is not an early exit. There are 28 teams in the NFL every year who wish they made it that far.
  18. sveumrules
    Coming into the game today Football Outsiders had the Packers at 40.6% to win the NFCCG. If you asked me to pick between them making or not making the SB, I'd pick not making the Super Bowl because that's what the odds say is most likely. If you asked me to pick any one NFC team to make the Super Bowl, I'd pick the Packers because that's what the odds say is most likely.
  19. sveumrules
    Just because its your opinion (or even consensus opinion) doesn't make it a fact. A fact would be that Bart Starr was 5-1 (.833 W%) in NFL Championship Games, while Brady is 7-3 (.700 W%) in NFL Championship Games.
  20. sveumrules
    Pretty crazy the defense is 7th in PPG entering the game while the offense is only 10th in PPG. A lot of that is tied up in the Packers ball control strategy. They've had the 3rd fewest drives on offense as a result of having the longest average drive time. This keeps the defense off the field too as they've had the 4th fewest drives against. The D has really only laid six eggs this year: Week 1 (NO 38), Week 3 (SF 28), Week 11 (MIN 34), Week 12 (LAR 28), Week 14 (CHI 30) and Week 15 (BAL 30).
  21. sveumrules
    Bucks stomp Brooklyn on the road without the top five guards in their rotation (Jrue, Grayson, Hill, Pat, DDV) and the first thing Jalen Rose says on ESPN is the Nets were shorthanded. Worldwide Leader in...something.
  22. sveumrules
    Except it's not really a toss up based on their on field play alone. Rodgers wrapped up the #1 seed for his team with what amounts to 14 weeks of play after punting week one & missing a game with COVID. Brady is going to need all 17 weeks to wrap up the #2 seed for his team. Of course team record isn't 100% attributable to the QB, but Rodgers lapping the rest of the league statistically from an efficiency standpoint was the most important factor in the Packers locking up the #1 seed with a week to spare.
  23. sveumrules
    How about longer term guys like Mountcastle from the O's or as previously mentioned, McMahon from the Rockies? Mountcastle has 1.7 WAR in a little over one full season (179 G | 726 PAs) of playing time. His 117 OPS+ shakes out to +14 batting runs, but once you factor in that he is a slow (-3 BSR), poor fielding (-8 FLD), 1B/LF/DH only (-11 POS), he gives back all those batting runs and then some. McMahon has an 88 OPS+ over 1,554 career PAs, which shakes out to -26 batting runs. At least his glove (+37 FLD) and playing mostly 3B/2B (+6 POS) cover for it, but if we're dealing from our pitching depth to bolster the offense he doesn't really fit the bill.
  24. sveumrules
    NFL playoff results are a lot closer to a coin flip than they are to the higher seed winning consistently... https://statsbylopez.netlify.app/post/part-ii-randomness-of-series/ By their calculations, to match the 80% advancement rate of the higher seed in the NBA (the only sport whose postseason isn't mostly random) the NFL would need to play a best of 11 series.
  25. sveumrules
    Jay Jaffe gives Prince the Hall of Fame treatment over at FanGraphs today with a nice summation of his career... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prince-fielder/ Fielder will be lucky to get a couple two tree courtesy votes, but he's First Ballot Inner Circle Hall of Fun for sure & the clean up hitter in my all time Brewers line up. So many great memories from him & Rickie hitting their first career HRs in the same game all the way through to his teary eyed press conference with his kids when he had to call it quits.
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