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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Coming into today Anderson was one of 124 starters to have thrown at least 90 IPs this season. By runs allowed based WAR his 0.7 mark was in a three way tie for 100th with Jon Lester & Michael Wacha. He might not be much compared to the other five guys in the rotation, but Brett Anderson has been a perfectly cromulent starting pitcher in the year 2021.
  2. sveumrules
    Yup. With Williams injury Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Suter, Ashby, Strickland, Cousins, Boxberger and Hader are the only guys I really trust to get outs. That's eleven. On the position player side you've got Omar, Manny, Rowdy, Vogelbach, Escobar, Wong, Adames, Urias, Peterson, Yelich, Cain, Garcia and Taylor as the locks. That's thirteen. So two spots left for some combination of JBJ, Hiura, Maile, Reyes, Sanchez, Norris or whoever else.
  3. sveumrules
    I mean, he's not going to come out and say that they don't care. But right now the #1 goal is to go into next week rested and healthy. Does "momentum" matter? I think it probably does, at least a little. Whatever momentum the Brewers might or might not have would have to carry over four off days before their first game Friday. This study by FanGraphs found very little correlation between September performance & October performance, with a much stronger correlation between full season performance & October performance... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-doesnt-guarantee-october-success/
  4. sveumrules
    tree up, tree down, tree kays
  5. sveumrules
    JBJ's salary this year was 6.5 million, 3.5 million of which is deferred. JBJ's salary for 2022 is 9.5 million, 6.5 million of which is deferred. I don't think paying JBJ three million dollars in 2022 will prohibit the Brewers from signing someone useful.
  6. sveumrules
    Well, he's got two more years with us to improve hopefully. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/jackie-bradley-jr-12166/ 2023 is a mutual option, so probably won't be picked up. Then again 12 million salary vs 8 million buyout makes the decision a little more interesting.
  7. sveumrules
    How insane would it be if Keston comes up & somehow the light comes back on & he hits like the 2018 version & maybe even gets some big postseason knocks. It's probably about the same odds as the Cardinals winning 17 in a row, but we literally just saw that happen, so who knows.
  8. sveumrules
    Don't even need to go back 20 years. Rick Porcello won in 2016 with a 22-4 record & 4.7 WAR season, while Verlander & his 7.4 WAR (but only a 16-9 record) had to settle for 2nd place.
  9. sveumrules
    Braun selfishly put himself before the team & still wore a Brewers uniform for like nine years after that. I don't think Stearns & company will take a one strike & yer out approach with Devin.
  10. sveumrules
    Keston at 2B vs a lefty today to give Kolten a day off?
  11. sveumrules
    Yes. Believe that game would be played Monday. With Game 1 of the NLDS not until Friday maybe they would play Game 163 (if necessary) on Wednesday then?
  12. sveumrules
    White Sox are pretty solid all around. 8th in runs scored & position player wRC+, 6th in position player WAR. Pitching staff is 4th by runs allowed WAR & 2nd by FIP WAR. Problem is they racked up almost half of that value against the weakest division in baseball this year. PECOTA isn't buying it. They've got CHI (7.9%) with the 3rd best World Series odds in the AL, a decent ways behind TB (19.8%) & HOU (18.8%). PECOTA is buying the Brewers (14.1%) as the favorites in the NL over LA (11.6%), SF (10.0%) and ATL (5.9%) at the moment. For whatever it is or isn't worth PECOTA has been the most optimistic on the Brewers since before the season, projecting them for 89 wins when most of the other systems came in around the low 80s, so hopefully they're onto something... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
  13. sveumrules
    No, it wasn't. Down slightly, yes, but a pitcher's velocity is up and down all year long. There isn't anything super concerning about his velocity in the last month or so that would hint he may be hitting a wall. Yeah, not sure where the 6 MPH is coming from. FanGraphs has Freddy's average fastball at 93.4 MPH on the season and he was at 92.4 MPH yesterday... https://www.fangraphs.com/players/freddy-peralta/18679/game-log?type=6&gds=&gde=&season=&position=P
  14. sveumrules
    I think it's difficult to have a short leash with Peralta. His first inning is clearly his worst inning. 5.33 ERA in the first inning vs. 2.22 in all other innings. Not sure that changes if he comes out of the bullpen. Seems like it takes him an inning to get loose and/or into a rhythm. I'm guessing there is some site that might show this (not sure what site that is), but I would be curious as to what his average fastball velocity is in his first inning vs. all other innings. Looks like Freddy's fastball velocity in the first through fourth innings has been pretty consistent this year and then sees a slight jump once he gets to the 5th/6th innings... https://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=642547&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=inning&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2021&endDate=09/27/2021 Clicking through Brooks other tabs it looks like it might be more of a location issue with 10.25% & 10.34% "grooved" fastballs in the first two innings compared to 8.74%, 9.90%, 7.59% and 9.02% "grooved" fastballs in innings three through six... https://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=642547&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=inning&minmax=ci&var=bway&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2021&endDate=09/27/2021
  15. sveumrules
    Believe the new Magic Number is eleven...
  16. sveumrules
    Updated composite WAR leaderboard heading into the last week... Burnes: 6.5 rWAR | 7.6 fWAR | 7.05 cWAR Wheeler: 6.4 rWAR | 6.9 fWAR | 6.65 cWAR Scherzer: 7.1 rWAR | 5.5 fWAR | 6.3 cWAR Buehler: 6.6 rWAR | 4.9 fWAR | 5.75 cWAR Woodruff: 6.3 rWAR | 4.8 fWAR | 5.55 cWAR Win Probability Added leaderboard looks like this... Hader: +4.88 Scherzer: +4.59 Woodruff: +3.62 Ranger Suarez: +3.51 Burnes: +3.45 If I had a ballot it would be Burnes, Wheeler, Scherzer, Woodruff, Hader
  17. sveumrules
    Heading into the last week here's how the various computers view the various as of yet undecided races... AL Wild Card NYY: 89.4% PECOTA | 81.3% FanGraphs | 75% 538 BOS: 67.6% PECOTA | 87.2% FanGraphs | 78% 538 TOR: 36.9% PECOTA | 28.5% FanGraphs | 41% 538 SEA: 5.1% PECOTA | 2.6% FanGraphs | 6% 538 OAK: 1.0% PECOTA | 0.6% FanGraphs | <1% 538 NL East Division ATL: 84.7% PECOTA | 87.1% FanGraphs | 93% 538 PHI: 15.3% PECOTA | 12.9% FanGraphs | 7% 538 NL West Divsion SF: 74.9% PECOTA | 84% FanGraphs | 87% 538 LA: 25.1% PECOTA | 16% FanGraphs | 13% 538
  18. sveumrules
    I thought it was Rodgers that wanted to move on from the team?
  19. sveumrules
    Think Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta & Lauer (if needed) will each get a start. With the way they've handled the extra rest situation throughout the season I don't see them suddenly throwing someone on three days rest.
  20. sveumrules
    Scherzer is currently leading all of MLB in runs allowed based WAR, how is he not a legitimate pick? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=3,d
  21. sveumrules
    Question is from the IGT, but figured it seemed somewhat relevant to this topic so here's the answer... 2 HR Player | Date | Benched | Next Game Result Cain | April 7 | NO | (0-4, Loss) Vogelbach | April 18 | YES | (Win) Nottingham | May 2 | YES | (Loss) Wong | June 1 | NO | (0-2, Win) Taylor | June 1 | YES | (0-1 PH, Win) Urias | June 30 | YES | (Win) Rowdy | July 24 | NO | (1-4, Loss) Manny | July 29 | YES | (Won) Manny | August 12 | NO | (2-3, Loss) Urias | August 12 | YES | (Loss) Avisail | August 18 | NO | (0-2, Loss) Yelich | August 21 | NO | (2-5, Win) Escobar | September 10 | NO | (0-4, Win) Wong | September 12 | NO | (0-4, Loss) Manny | September 18 | YES | (Loss) Taylor | September 23 | YES | (Win) So if I counted right there have been 16 different instances of a Brewer player having a 2 HR game this year. Eight times that player has started the next game & eight times they have not. Twice two players hit 2 HR in the same game & both times one sat & one started the next game & the Brewers went 1-1 in those games. Of the eight players that did start the next game after their 2 HR game, none of them hit a HR & they went a combined 5-29 so their heat dissipated quickly with the Brewers going 2-4 in the six games where one 2 HR hitter started the next game. In the six games the one 2 HR player sat the following game the Brewers went 4-2 in those games. Too small of a sample to really draw any meaningful conclusions from, but those are the numbers.
  22. sveumrules
    Clicking around BRef & it looks like this link has a table of how many times they have scored 1 run, 2 runs, 3 runs, etc, in each inning over the course of the season... https://stathead.com/baseball/inning_summary.cgi?year=2021&team_id=MIL&utm_medium=br&utm_source=team-inning-sum&utm_campaign=baseball&__hstc=107817757.06df2a44e3a0168d58bb81526b61cd36.1629481267153.1632245369903.1632250542308.49&__hssc=107817757.13.1632250542308&__hsfp=3520052351 Drawing an arbitrary line at 3 runs or more and calling that a Big Inning the Brewers distribution of Big Innings by inning would be as follows... 1st Inning: 7 times 2nd Inning 6 times 3rd Inning: 6 times 4th Inning: 8 times 5th Inning: 9 times 6th Inning: 16 times 7th Inning: 13 times 8th Inning: 8 times 9th Inning: 5 times
  23. sveumrules
    Tough luck for Woody for sure, though the bullpen & late offense have picked it up somewhat going 7-3 in his non-decisions. I'd looked up the runs scored by inning already on the season, but hadn't noticed the batting order splits & thought they were pretty interesting too. Runs Scored By Inning w/ MLB Rank... 1st: (84 R | 15th) 2nd: (76 R | 13th) 3rd: (62 R | 26th) 4th: (71 R | 20th) 5th: (70 R | 19th) 6th: (94 R | 4th) 7th: (83 R | 8th) 8th: (73 R | 14th) 9th: (56 R | 8th) It's almost like our offense for the first five innings is the pre-Adames trade version & then from the sixth inning on they become the post-trade version. OPS By Batting Order Position w/ sOPS+ 1st: (763 | 100) 2nd: (744 | 92) 3rd: (764 | 92) 4th: (780 | 99) 5th: (719 | 95) 6th: (780 | 117) 7th: (754 | 118) 8th: (656 | 98) sOPS+ is the same concept as OPS+, but uses the league average for that specific split as the baseline. So a 763 OPS from the leadoff spot is exactly average. Our two through five spots have been below average by one to eight percent. Then the 6th & 7th spots have been well above average relative to other hitters in those same batting order slots. Kind of speaks to the depth of the 2021 lineup/position player group vs 2018/19 where at times it felt like the offense was Yelich & a prayer.
  24. sveumrules
    There are 19,017 individual player seasons with at least 400 PAs over the 150 years Major League Baseball has been played. JBJ's wRC+ of 36 currently ranks 19,005th. Only 12 players in 150 years have gotten at least 400 PAs and put up a wRC+ below 36. On account of top shelf defense & positive base running, JBJ ranks not quite so historically awful by WAR with his -0.7 mark currently ranking 18,339th. 678 players (about 4-5 per year) have had a season worse than JBJ. Brewers to put up worse seasons by WAR (min. 400 PAs) are 2003 Royce Clayton (-0.8), 1974 Pedro Garcia (-1.1), 1977 Jim Wohlford (-1.4), 1973 Tim Johnson (-1.7), 2000 Marquis Grissom (-1.8), 2013 Yuni (-1.8), 1977 Von Joshua (-2.1) and 1984 Ted Simmons (-2.4). If we lower the threshold to 300 PAs that adds some more old "favorites" like 1980 Dick Davis (-0.7), 1982 Roy Howell (-0.7), 1986 Dale Sveum (-0.7), 1995 Pat Listach (-0.7), 1996 Mike Matheny (-0.8), 1995 David Hulse (-1.1), 2004 Chad Moeller (-1.1), 1996 Pat Listach (-1.1), 1988 Jeffrey Leonard (-1.2), 1970 Russ Snyder (-1.4), 2004 Wes Helms (-1.6), 1993 Bill Spiers (-1.9) and 2002 Ronnie Belliard (-2.1).
  25. sveumrules
    Projections don't seem to care the Packers lost big (& looked absolutely turrrible doing so) in week one. NFC North Division Odds... 538: GB 47% | MIN 26% | CHI 21% | DET 6% Football Outsiders: GB 46.3% | MIN 27.1% | CHI 19.2% | DET 7.4% That said, still almost kind of a must win game tonight with @SF & vs PIT next up. Coming out of the first 4 games 0-4 would be really entertaining as someone who is more of a schadenfreude fan than a Packers one, 1-3 they're still probably fine but the grumbling will likely drown out anyone trying to say so, 2-2 would be the most boring outcome & 3-1 might almost get the fanbase thinking about being excited again.
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