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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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I think 35 HR and an OPS of .845 is pretty special. I don’t see García coming close to replacing that kind of production, and he’s playing RF where you are usually looking for a lot of production. Garcia 2019, 111 OPS+. Garcia 2017-19, 117 OPS+. Moose 2019, 114 OPS+. Moose 2017-19, 113 OPS+. Moose has bern more consistent, but Garcia is also 2 years younger with a higher ceiling/lower floor. -
So he is a better option than Cain? Over the last three years versus RHP Sogard has a 355 OBP & 96 wRC+ while Cain is at a 356 OBP & 101 wRC+, it is essentially a wash. If we look at just 2019 vs RHP it is Sogard at 356 OBP & 112 wRC+ compared to 324 OBP & 79 wRC+ for Cain.
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Over the last three seasons, Sogard has an OBP+ of 108, a BB%+ of 127 & a K%+ of 65, all of which indicate he is a perfectly cromulent lead off option.
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Rather see him leading off than Sogard. I just don't understand why Sogard is batting there, Cain is better in every way. If we're essentially getting Arcia and Sogard batting one after the other let's just put them 8th and 9th rather than 9th and 1st. I don't understand why Sogard is starting either. Frankly, I don't know why he is on this roster... The options are (2019 stats) | [2017-19 stats]... Eric (116 OPS+, 2.6 WAR) | [98 OPS+, 3.4 WAR] Brock (101 OPS+, 1.4 WAR) | [94 OPS+, 2.5 WAR] Jedd (33 OPS+, -0.4 WAR) | [102 OPS+, 3.7 WAR] I would guess Sogard is starting because he had the best 2019 out of the available options & because batting lefty gives him the platoon advantage versus the right handed pitchers the Cubs have started thus far.
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Over/under for combined Chatwood/Peralta walks opens at 6.5.
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Tinkers or Dunston for SS, Chance for other 1B, Sosa for RF, no idea on CF
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Likely the first of many... Last three years, Yaz/Pina/Kratz combined for about +27.7 framing runs. Omar came in around -22.2 over the same time.
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mid season form already. well done I mean, it's already July 24th & neither one has a hit yet.
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Sure, Sogard was useless in 2018 (113 PA, 12 OPS+). The year before that he was fine (103 OPS+) over a larger sample (299 PA). Last year he put up a 116 OPS+ in an even larger sample (442 PA). One of those things is not like the others. Despite slugging 10% less than league average over the last three seasons, Eric has still managed to get on base 8% better than league average over that time on the strength of a walk rate 27% better than league average coupled with a strikeout rate 35% below league average. I'd probably have gone with Cain at leadoff myself, though that 238/238/238 triple slash in 21 career PAs against Hendriks isn't very inspiring, but Sogard is a perfectly cromulent choice. Go Brewers!!
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Don’t most pitchers throw harder after TJ??? Corey had his surgery about 15 months ago. I believe the standard rehab timeline is 12-18 months, so he is probably still building his velocity back up at this point.
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If they did go with eight playoff teams per league maybe the set up could be something like this... WC8 @ DW1 WC7 @ DW2 WC6 @ DW3 To still get an advantage for winning the division these series would be structured so the Wild Card team has to sweep a three game road series against the Division Winner to move on, or the series is over once the Division Winner wins one game. The just leave WC4 vs WC5 as a standard best of 3.
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Would also prefer they leave things as is for now, but I think it could be interesting if they went to seven playoff teams in each league. Three division winners get byes to the DS, then you have a series of three consecutive winner take all wild card games. Day 1: WC4 @ WC3 Day 2: D1 winner @ WC2 Day 3: D2 winner @ WC1 Day 4: Division Series begin
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Didn’t he look horribly slow, though? Yeah, didn't look like he was going all out. Probably thought, "there's no way any 3rd base coach would even think about sending me here"...then he looked up & saw Eddie waving his arms like one of those inflatable noodles outside a used car lot.
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Gyorko the first 2020 victim of Windmill Eddie.
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Keston looks ready to go.
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LOL you are sticking to your guns on the "Houser isn't a starter" idea. I can respect that. Hope I’m dead wrong. Just don’t believe it. Maybe he’s a late bloomer and has figured it out. I’d be all for it. Houser was born 2/2/93. Woodruff was born eight days later on 2/10/93. Is Brandon a late bloomer too? Houser career | 127 IP | 122 ERA+ Woodruff career | 207 IP | 113 ERA+ Jacob deGrom is maybe the best pitcher in baseball, one of a small handful of "true aces" in the game, entering his age 27 season (as both Adrian & Brandon are) he had 140 IP & a 128 ERA+. Corey Kluber had 67 IP & a 74 ERA+ entering his age 27 season. Pitching is weird & guys get hurt & figure things out at different times. Given their respective sample sizes the book is still essentially out on our entire rotation.
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Over Houser's first 6 starts, when he was still bouncing around between AAA, the bullpen & the rotation, he allowed 20 ER over 23 IP (7.83 ERA). Once he was put in the rotation on July 30th & left there for the rest of the season, he allowed 21 ER over 57.2 IP (3.28 ERA), literally our best pitcher down the stretch run. It will be interesting to see who gets moved into what role when Lauer/Anderson are ready to return, but I'd probably rank Houser's rotation spot the second most secure at this point considering his 12 start stretch to finish last season is longer (& more recent) than any periods of effectiveness that Burnes or Peralta have demonstrated.
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The three-headed blah-ster of SoHoGy all starting on Opening Day would be just about thee most 2020 thing possible.
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I have a feeling there is no way he makes 30 starts this season.
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From 2016-19 FanGraphs projected the Brewers rotation 26th, 25th, 19th & 24th. They actually finished those years 23rd, 10th, 15th & 15th in runs allowed WAR. Obviously there is a lot more "randomness" in play over a 60 game season (if we even make it that far) than a 162 game season, but it will be interesting to see if the rotation options assembled by Stearns & company for 2020 can beat their projections for the 5th straight year.
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FanGraphs has been doing their positional rankings heading into the season, so, curious to see what they had to say about our starting rotation I clicked the link for teams 16-30, but couldn't find the Brewers listed. Turns out they snuck in at number 15... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/ Also, if you click on the Brewers tab you can see each of their positional previews/write ups with the exception of relief pitchers which hasn't been released yet.
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I've had the driver in front of me come to a complete stop before entering a roundabout with nary another car in sight.
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Not really. Coop's 5 best years totaled 24.3 WAR. Still well short of bottom rung HOF 1B like Frank Chance (29.3), Tony Perez (29.1) and Orlando Cepeda (27.0) or guys that are on the outside looking in like John Olerud (31.3), Keith Hernandez (31.2), Don Mattingly (29.3), Will Clark (28.5), Fred McGriff (27.8) or even Kevin Youkilis (26.7).
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Baines & Raines don't really belong in same category. Harold has a career WAR of 38.7, a peak 7 year WAR of 21.4 & JAWS (50/50 career/peak split) of 30.1, all far short of the average HOF RF at 71.9 career, 42.4 peak & 57.2 JAWS. Tim has a career WAR of 69.4, peak WAR of 42.4 & JAWS of 55.9, all of which are slightly above the average HOF LF at 65.6 career, 41.7 peak & 53.6 JAWS.
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From 1974-76, Cooper played in 350 of 486 games, totaled 1,270 plate appearances & put up 4.6 WAR, or .0036 WAR/PA. Let's say he had been the full time starter since 1972 & averaged 600 PAs per season through 1976 with that same .0036 WAR/PA, that essentially would haved added about 6 WAR to his career total. The average HOF 1B has a career WAR of 66.9, a peak 7 year WAR of 42.7 & a JAWS (50/50 career/peak split) of 54.8. Even if you add those extra 6 WAR, Cooper comes in at 42 career, 30 peak & 36 JAWS which still falls well short of other recent 1B like Keith Hernandez (60.3/41.3/50.8), John Olerud (58.1/39.0/48.6), Will Clark (56.5/36.1/46.3), Fred McGriff (52.6/36.0/44.3), Mark Grace (46.4/29.7/38.0) or Don Mattingly (42.4/35.7/39.1).
