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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Or, which other team/teams was/were trying to trade up to get Love?
  2. sveumrules
    At this point? MLB is a government sanctioned monopoly, stealing is cooked into the business model. By following professional sports at all we're esentially turning our money willfully over to legally organized crime syndicates in exchange for entertainment. Go Brewers.
  3. sveumrules
    There is a link to "download state data" on the WI DHS website, though I have no idea how detailed that data is... https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/outbreaks/index.htm Download link is underneath the summary table.
  4. sveumrules
    My prediction remains that assuming the whole C19 situation stays the same-ish or improves over the month of May that they will start to ramp up for "Spring Training" in June with an eye towards having Opening Day on July 4th.
  5. sveumrules
    BRef is running their own OOTP simulation of the 2020 season & Freddy Peralta just "threw" the second no hitter in franchise history with 17 K & 3 BB. https://www.baseball-reference.com/sim/boxes/MIL/MIL202004160.shtml
  6. sveumrules
    Believe it was set to expire after this season. Would guess they won't see much of a bump coming off an at best pandemic shortened season or at worst no season at all, but it will definitely be an interesting situation to keep an eye on.
  7. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has released their updated Estmiated Local TV Revenues for each team & it looks like the Brewers are 29th at 28 million with the only the Marlins lower at 20 million & a 14 million gap between us & the Rockies in 28th at 42 million. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/ I'd imagine this massive income disparity will continue to be relevant to our payroll in 2020 & beyond.
  8. sveumrules
    I wouldn’t think stats from a shortened season would count towards single-season records, would it? Edit: I guess this wouldn’t necessarily be a record, but I wouldn’t think people would recognize it in the long term. Or is there a minimum plate appearances for that? If someone hits .440 in like 250 PAs over an 80 game season, sure they'll set the single season batting average record, there'll just be a huge jazz trick next to it.
  9. sveumrules
    My response to that potential outcome would be...
  10. sveumrules
    The rate at which new cases are doubling is now more than three days. It was just about two not that long ago. Social distancing at work? Let's hope so. WI DHS has the state at 989 confirmed cases currently, so we'll surely pass 1,000 sometime today. WI DHS also has the state at 15,232 negative tests currently, so it's somewhat reassuring to know that only 6% of those individuals symptomatic enough (& with access) to be tested have actually had C19.
  11. sveumrules
    Thanks again for compiling this, reilly. Here's to hoping we'll be following some of these guys in the link reports sometime in the next couple two tree months.
  12. sveumrules
    Thanks for the update kalle8, hope you & your loved ones are as safe & healthy as possible given everything that is going on right now.
  13. sveumrules
    Say what you will about defensive metrics, but since UZR/DRS came out in 2002/03 the Brewers CF have ranked 3rd by UZR (+68.1) & 2nd by DRS (+90). Of course most of that is Cain, Gomez, Cameron & Broxton, but Tony Plush (+5.9 UZR/+5 DRS), Jim Edmonds (+6.8 UZR/+5 DRS in only 360 innings!) & Maverick Phillips (+5.3 UZR/+7 DRS in only 196 innings!!) all did their part too.
  14. sveumrules
    Since Chris Sale became a starter in 2012 he has thrown the 6th most innings in all of baseball. He has the 3rd highest FIP based WAR & 4th highest runs allowed based WAR during that time. Yes, he throws fewer innings than inner circle Hall of Famers from 15-40 years ago. Compared to his contemporaries he's been one of the most durable & effective pitchers in baseball for a period of 8 years.
  15. sveumrules
    I think it's about a 50/50 chance, myself. Baseball will either be played, or it won't.
  16. sveumrules
    Actually, I think the opposite. Depth pays over the longer haul, as injuries etc make the other teams weaker, when we have injuries we are replacing that player with a very similar in production player. A shortened season will not help the Brewers. But CC, does know how to manage to win it all as if every game is the last - which is very much needed in a 60 game season. Ultimately the shorter the season is, the more "randomness" comes into play. The nerds' computers say the Brewers would get a slight bump over a shorter season... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-do-the-playoff-odds-change-in-a-shorter-season/
  17. sveumrules
    First of all, thank you reilly for putting this all together again & thank you also to everyone who took time to post their rankings. Obviously baseball prospects are probably not most people's top priorities right now, but with that said here is my list & I hope we all get to read about these guys & their teammates in the link reports soon... 01. Brice Turang 02. Ethan Small 03. Drew Rasmussen 04. Aaron Ashby 05. Alec Bettinger 06. Antoine Kelly 07. Mario Feliciano 08. Tristen Lutz 09. Eduardo Garcia 10. Hedbert Perez 11. Clayton Andrews 12. Trey Supak 13. Corey Ray 14. Devin Williams 15. Zack Brown 16. Bowden Francis 17. Jacob Nottingham 18. Max Lazar 19. Dylan File 20. Noah Zavolas 21. Payton Henry 22. Luis Medina 23. Carlos Rodriguez 24. Joe Gray Jr. 25. Micah Bello
  18. sveumrules
    Perfect casting choice. Also always loved that SB is an Hamlet adaptation too. Might just be my favorite comedy of all time. Still have never seen Seventh Seal, by the time I was getting into film it was already such a meme that I never made it a priority to watch it. At the same time it seems like something that would resonate more seeing now that I'm twenty some years older. More of a deep cut MVS favorite of mine would be Dreamscape. Totally freaked me out seeing it as a kid in the mid 80s, then watched it again recently & it totally holds up.
  19. sveumrules
    I think Ryan is just being realistic. He'll definitely end up on the ballot, but I'd guess he'll be one & done & not just because of the PED stuff. The average HOF LF is 65.7 career WAR / 41.7 7-year peak WAR compared to Braun at 48.2 career / 39.2 7-year peak. Lance Berkman racked up 52.1 career / 39.1 7-year peak with a 144 OPS+ (Braun currently at 135) & he was only able to muster 5 votes (1.2%). First ballot Hall of Very Good & third best player in franchise history (at the moment) is still a fantastic outcome & I hope Ryan puts up a healthy, quality season to make the option decision interesting. My prediction: If Ryan is the 2020 World Series MVP, the option will be exercised by both parties.
  20. sveumrules
    It all depends on your projected future value & dollar/WAR figures, but here are a couple attempts from FanGraphs... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-yelich-cashes-in/ Money quote..."Even so, much of his performance value is up front, during the two low-cost years that are being carried over. ZiPS figures that the seven years starting in 2022 are worth $225 million, which is still $36.5 million more than he’s being paid for that period." Here is another where they examine how "similar" players have performed over during their thirties... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-good-will-christian-yelich-be-in-his-thirties/ tl,dr..."If we assume a nine million dollars per win at present in free agency, and a five percent inflation rate, those 17 wins will be worth around $190 million. The Brewers are paying just $174 million for that potential production (and maybe less when deferrals are factored in); that’s just an 8% discount of the projected value three years in advance. Given the uncertainty in player performance, and that the Brewers were not under any pressure to sign Yelich, that discount is not significant. The Brewers are likely to get exactly what they pay for and Yelich gets long term security. Everybody wins." ZIPS came in around 36 WAR, Yelich's comp group came in around 29 WAR, so I would imagine the Brewers internal projections for Christian are in a similar range over the life of the contract.
  21. sveumrules
    Someone snapped a photo of Andrew McCutchen's pay stub on a clubhouse tour & it's kind of interesting to see the numerous deductions... https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/5/22/8647279/andrew-mccutchen-pay-stub-picture-taxes-deductions-money
  22. sveumrules
    We project for a top 5 bullpen in all of MLB at the moment.... https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team During the Stearns era, the bullpen's Win Probability Added & runs allowed based WAR have ranked... 2016: 6th (+5.70) 9th (5.9) 2017: 12th (+2.87) 6th (6.8) 2018: 6th (+5.65) 4th (7.7) 2019: 7th (+5.22) 15th (4.0) Total: 4th (+19.44) 6th (24.5) The bullpen has consistently been a strength during Stearns' tenure & as long as Hader is healthy I don't see it being a hindrance to the Brewers' competitiveness in 2020.
  23. sveumrules
    Obviously they are two different players, but for comparisons sake... Braun thru age 27 | 3177 PA | 145 OPS+ | 26.2 WAR Yelich thru age 27 | 4043 PA | 137 OPS+ | 33.6 WAR Yelich got an earlier start, which combined with better fielding (+23 vs -18) & baserunning (+32 vs +18) numbers, gives him the WAR edge over Braun. Braun age 28-35 | 4022 PA | 127 OPS+ | 22.0 WAR Given Yelich is a more well rounded player, I think he should have no problem topping those numbers over the life of the deal. He might top them in the next three (the WAR, not the PA). Its obviously more complicated than this, but for quick & dirty purposes, assuming 9 million per WAR, the break even point is around 24 WAR.
  24. sveumrules
    From that run to get back into it at the end the 2nd quarter, to building the lead in the 3rd by allowing only 19 points to holding off the Raptors trying to get back into it in the 4th (they still never got closer than 5 points), all on the second night of an overtime back to back... This team is pretty pretty good at basketball.
  25. sveumrules
    Last year our 3B posted a 73wRC+ & 0.1 WAR. ZIPS projects Brock for a 95 OPS+ & Jedd for a 98 OPS+ so they shouldn't have much problem topping last year's results.
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