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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    FanGraphs joining the fun... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/devin-williams-and-the-unicorn-changeup/
  2. sveumrules
    The Brewers will not lose a game today.
  3. sveumrules
    2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff 2018: Burnes, Peralta 2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham 2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias) A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me. How many of those players are impact talents. Looks like the makings of a terrific bullpen and not much else. Your original quote was good young talent, impact talents is moving the goal posts. Either way, Woodruff (#28) & Hiura (#46) both just made FanGraphs Top 50 trade value series. Hader is the best reliever in baseball & Williams isn't far behind. I'd say that's four impact talents. If your expectation is to graduate multiple high impact talents year in & year out, all while drafting at the back end, I guess I just don't believe that is a realistic expectation. Especially in only four years. Stearns & company also used a bunch of highly ranked, no results so far prospects to acquire the #15 entry on the FanGraphs top 50 trade value series.
  4. sveumrules
    Looks like ZIPS thinks that trading Phelps (plus all the other moves made around baseball) lowered our playoff odds by about 2%... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cranking-out-the-post-trade-deadline-zips/ I'd guess the odds of one of the three guys we acquired turning out is at least 3%, so seems like a pretty even deal.
  5. sveumrules
    What bearing does what happened before Stearns got here have on his performance? I listed what look to be 10 long term pieces above that were either drafted, developed or acquired by Stearns & company that are already making an MLB impact. The only guy we've traded away that really falls into that category is Grisham at this point. I think the record of their evals on who to keep versus who to deal pretty much speaks for itself. Im terms of MLB impact, the 2018-20 drafts are essentially non-factors, though Drew Rasmussen is one of only ten 2018 draftees to have debuted thus far, so that's pretty cool for a 6th rounder. We've already got Burnes & Hiura out of 2016-17 (the only drafts of Stearns tenure that we can maybe begin to draw some conclusions from given prospect developement timelines) with another half dozen or so guys that still could do something. Outside of Ray/Erceg, why do you think they haven't drafted well?
  6. sveumrules
    If Yelich continues to hit 207/324/488 he isn't going to have much trade value unfortunately. If he starts to hit better, we'll probably win more games. This season isn't over, no one knows for sure what kind of team we threw together yet. People were saying the same things last September & what happened? If after 135 games the book wasn't written in 2019, what makes you think it has been written after 35 games this year? They are still about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs & then anything can happen. You seem to think this team is good. I think you are way off base if you think this lineup is anything other than terrible. Short season or not the position players on this team are just not good enough. No, I think they are about average. There are only four "good" teams in the NL this year (ATL, CHI, LAD, SD) which means the other four playoff teams will be about average.
  7. sveumrules
    If Yelich continues to hit 207/324/488 he isn't going to have much trade value unfortunately. If he starts to hit better, we'll probably win more games. This season isn't over, no one knows for sure what kind of team we threw together yet. People were saying the same things last September & what happened? If after 135 games the book wasn't written in 2019, what makes you think it has been written after 35 games this year? They are still about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs & then anything can happen.
  8. sveumrules
    No players from the 2020 or 2019 drafts have reached MLB as of yet. Only two players drafted in the first round after Brice Turang in 2018 have reached MLB even sparingly so far. So, it is too early to pass any judgement on 2018-2020 drafts. In 2017 we drafted Keston in the first round with a number of later round picks still looking to have a decent chance at some point down the road (Lutz, Francis, Bettinger, Lazar, File) Sure, Ray & Erceg have bombed from 2016, but we still have Feliciano/Henry in the minors & Burnes at the MLB level. So when you say "it hasn't been that good in the Stearns era" or "we need to start drafting & developing better. Plain and simple.", you are basing that stance on essentially two picks, Ray & Erceg.
  9. sveumrules
    2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff 2018: Burnes, Peralta 2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham 2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias) A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me.
  10. sveumrules
    Since Stearns got here in 2016, we have won the exact same number of games as the Oakland Athletics & one more than the Tampa Bay Rays. We have also won more playoff games than either of the typically lauded small market success stories. As much as has gone wrong with the offense this year, we are still around a 50/50 shot at the playoffs at the moment. Stearns & company are just fine.
  11. sveumrules
    In 2018, opening day payroll was about 91 million. In 2019, opening day payroll was about 122.5 million, an increase of 31.5 million dollars. Yaz & Moose accounted for 28.25 million of that 31.5 million increase. If Bauer can be signed for 1/30 and is interested in pitching in Milwaukee and Stearns & company think its a prudent addition, I'd imagine Mark A could maybe be persuaded to scrounge up the necessary funds.
  12. sveumrules
    A lockdown bullpen has been a key reason the Brewers have exceeded their projections every year & have beaten their pythag by the largest margin of any team in MLB since Stearns & company arrived. I still don't think Hader is going anywhere any time soon. As long as the Brewers keep developing some of their non-prospects into MLB contributors, I'm not really all that concerned with external rankings of their farm system. Something else to keep in mind is that Devin was a 2nd round pick in 2013 & is just now making an impact seven years later. Another example of why it's unrealistic for us to have a caché of MLB ready prospects when Stearns & company have only been here four years.
  13. sveumrules
    From 2010-14, the Cubs lost 464 games, 2nd most in MLB. They sacrificed those years for the uncertainty of the future & won the World Series in 2016. They got somewhere. From 2010-14 the Astros lost 502 games, the most in MLB. They sacrificed those years for the uncertainty of the future & won the World Series in 2017. They got somewhere.
  14. sveumrules
    Yet a game out of a playoff spot. Team can only improve, right? One can hope but some sense of direction for the franchise would be nice. TBH I was actually hoping for more moves to signal a punt on the season. Mediocrity is frustrating in any sport. Glad we stuck to our price on Hader though. Stearns has stated the direction numerous times, it is to contend for a playoff spot year in & year out.
  15. sveumrules
    When you posted your "Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns" thread last year on September 6th, the Brewers playoff odds were around 8%. Yet, they still made the playoffs & almost beat the eventual World Series Champion. Right now, the Brewers playoff odds are around 51%. Interestingly, when the Brewers went on their crazy September streak following your Stearns thread last year, you didn't make a single post again until October. Must not have been very exciting.
  16. sveumrules
    Publicly available sources have the Brewers at about a 50/50 chance at making they playoffs & I'd imagine the Brewers internal calculations peg them in the same range. Trading Phelps is not going to drastically change things one way or another, so I'd imagine before the trade Stearns probably thought we had around a 50% chance of making the playoffs & now that we have traded Phelps he probably still thinks we have around a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but now with three more prospects in the fold.
  17. sveumrules
    Were you excited by the moves Stearns & company made last deadline? From what I recall they were mostly met with overwhelmingly negative reaction from the fanbase, yet they turned out pretty well, propelling the Brewers to the postseason. Exciting moves aren't always the most effective.
  18. sveumrules
    Between us still being in the postseason picture, the low likelihood that a team overpays drastically, the information gap among prospects being wider than ever with no minor league season and how much Stearns & company value information...I'm gonna go ahead & guess NO DEAL.
  19. sveumrules
    Team wRC+ is currently at 82, two days ago it was 77, so the PAs are still low enough it can move a couple two tree points either way with a good or bad game offensively. Our current runs scored per game is 4.00, projected rest of season is 4.84 so the math still believes pretty significant positive regression is incoming. I checked team wRC+ leaderboards through around 32 games in 2019, then compared where the bad/underperforming teams were at by game 60. Here's what happened... (32 game wRC+ / 60 game wRC+ / difference) 162 game wRC+ SFG (67 / 78 / +11) 88 CLE (67 / 77 / +10) 94 MIA (72 / 75 / +3) 84 COL (73 / 93 / +20) 92 CIN (73 / 87 / +14) 94 TOR (77 / 73 / -4) 92 PIT (78 / 92 / +14) 97 DET (80 / 73 / -7) 77 SDP (82 / 89 / +7) 93 BAL (83 / 81 / -2) 89 BOS (86 / 102 / +12) 107 Even from game 32-60 most of the underperforming teams saw sizable positive regression, outside of a handful of teams who the 162 game wRC+ indicated just were who they were, as it were. I don't think we'll make it back to the 102 wRC+ our non-pitchers posted last year, but it looks like the numbers make a pretty compelling case that we'll end up closer to that number than our current 82 mark.
  20. sveumrules
    That's mostly because he started the year hitting leadoff (& Urias wasn't here yet). Sogard still had a .400 OBP after 13 team games (40% of the season at this point), one of the only guys not making outs, so it wasn't the worst idea. As he's struggled over the last 19 games (& Urias got here), he's consistently been hitting lower in the order. I'll take the under on him finishing the season 5th on the team in PAs.
  21. sveumrules
    Tiers in the NL at this point pretty much look like this, with 538/FanGraphs playoff odds... Tier 1: LAD (>99%/100%) clear best team in the league Tier 2 : ATL (92%/93%) CHI (91%/94%) SDP (90%/94%) virtual locks Tier 3: PHI (60%/66%) NYM (55%/68%) MIL (58%/58%) STL (56%/49%) CIN (52%/54%) COL (54%/43%) four of these six teams will probably round out the field Tier 4: WAS (29%/18%) MIA (26%/23%) SFG (24%/29%) ARI (12%/12%) gonna take a miracle Tier 5: PIT (1%/0%)
  22. sveumrules
    Yup, maybe even two. Right around 58% playoff odds from both 538 & FanGraphs after tonight.
  23. sveumrules
    There are 148 relievers with at least 150 IP since 2016... Phelps has an ERA- of 70 (same as Will Smith & Dellin Betances) to go with a FIP- of 79 (same as Adam Ottavino & Jeurys Familia). Corey Knebel's ERA-/FIP- over that same time frame is 76/75. Those five relievers with similar results to Phelps are making a lil under 50 million combined this year, compared to 1.25 million for David. Sure, he's not in the same superhuman stratosphere as Devin or Hader at the moment, but by the numbers he is a legitimate late inning reliever.
  24. sveumrules
    Sogard has a 45 wRC+. The last year pitchers hit for a 45 wRC+ as a group was 1904. In 2019 pitchers hit for a -19 wRC+, with only 11 pitchers topping both 20 PAs & a 45 wRC+. Sogard has certainly been bad so far, but the numbers don't really support him being worse than pitcher type production. I thought it was a perfectly cromulent signing. If he hits like 2019, it is a bargain. If he hit to his projections, it is even money. Even with him not hitting to his projections yet, I still wouldn't classify it as bad because it has done nothing to hinder future moves as a low money one year deal. The only way it could really be bad is if he came down with C19 & infected the whole team or like collided with Yelich chasing a blooper or something.
  25. sveumrules
    League Average 2019 | 256/327/443 | 8.7 BB% | 22.4 K% League Average 2020 | 243/321/416 | 9.3 BB% | 23.2 K%
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